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First off, I just want to say that SaberMets is proud to sponsor Billy Beane's page at baseball-reference.com. Without his (as well as others') insight and forward-thinking, I wouldn't be nearly as interested (read: obsessed) with baseball and baseball statistics.

Now, in response to my flogging of Mike Cameron yesterday, I received the following e-mail:

John: Below is a great Cameron Article from Aaron's Baseball Blog. The Safeco thing is real, and he could have an MVP type year with the Mets. He'll hit better than Duncan!

If you haven't done so already, check out Aaron's Baseball Blog. For the article in question, check this out.

My response:

Thanks for the article, John, it's very interesting. Aaron brings up an intriguing point about Cameron, as his home/road splits are very pronounced. There are two problems, though. The first problem is, through no fault of Aaron's, the article only encompassed the first three months of the season. Cameron's final 2003 home/road splits look like this:

Home: 235/329/429 with 32bb/68k and 24xbh (11hr) in 247ab
Road: 268/357/432 with 38bb/69k and 30xbh (7hr) in 287ab

While he's certainly better on the road, it's nowhere near the extent of the prior three seasons (or even the first three months of 2003). The OPS difference is 31 points, which is not insignificant, but is also not enough to put a seemingly-mediocre hitter like Cameron into Todd Helton's company. Granted, one season of similar splits doesn't completely skew three years of pronounced splits. Here are his OPS splits in each of the past four seasons:

       2000  2001  2002  2003
Home   .677  .669  .704  .758
Road   .916  .983  .854  .789
Delta  .239  .314  .150  .031

His split was ridiculous in 2001, but that certainly appears to be the exception to the trend, where he had a career year on the road. Aside from that season, his home OPS has actually increased each year while his road OPS has decreased. As a result, his delta-OPS (OPS change) has decreased each year accordingly.

Even if we can ignore these facts, it would be borderline-criminal to suggest that Cameron would put up an "MVP type" year with the Mets in 2004.

Here are the BPF (Batter Park Factors) for Safeco and Shea Stadium for the 2000-2002 seasons, courtesy of baseball-reference.com. Park factors attempt to illustrate a stadium's effect on hitting or pitching relative to the rest of the league. A number above 100 is a good park for hitters and a number below 100 is a good park for pitchers.

         2000  2001  2002
Safeco    91    93    92
Shea      93    94    94

So Shea's a slightly better park for hitters, but the difference is hardly cavernous. Add to that the league change (which may or may not be a red herring), and Cameron would probably project an OPS of 750-800 with the Mets. Is that terrible? Definitely not. Cameron is an excellent center-fielder, probably on-par with Torii Hunter but not as good as Andruw Jones. His offense and defense would be reasonable-if-not-significant upgrades over what the Mets penciled in last season. The cost of acquiring a player like Mike Cameron is what gives me pause. He will be looking for a 3+ year deal in the $5-$7 million range, which is far too much money over far too many years. Inking him to a multi-year deal would immediately exclude the Mets from the Carlos Beltran Sweepstakes. Further, I don't know whether Seattle will offer Cameron arbitration and, if they do, what type (A, B, or C) free agent he will be. The Mets have the 3rd pick in the amateur draft this year, which is theirs to keep. However, they have the 3rd pick in every round of the draft, and they could conceivably lose their second-round pick if Cameron is either a Type A (top 30% of all players at his position) or Type B (top 50% of all players at his position).

Basically, you are right that Mike Cameron would hit better than Jeff Duncan (536 OPS), but the potential cost (years/money/picks/Beltran) would outweigh any contribution he could make to the non-contending 2004 Mets.