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The 2003 Sabey Awards Part 2: AL Cy Young

Yesterday, in The 2003 Sabey Awards Part 1, I took a look at the American League and National League Rookie of the Year races.

Today I will break down the American League Cy Young candidates.



All of these pitchers had very good or great seasons, but only one can win the award (duh).

                Age  IP     K   BB  HR  ERA   WHIP  K/9   K/BB  HR/9
Bartolo Colon   30  242.0  173  67  30  3.87  1.20  6.43  2.58  1.12
Keith Foulke    31   86.2   88  20  10  2.08  0.89  9.14  4.40  1.04
Roy Halladay    26  266.0  204  32  26  3.25  1.07  6.90  6.38  0.88
Tim Hudson      28  240.0  162  61  15  2.70  1.08  6.08  2.66  0.56
Esteban Loaiza  31  226.1  207  56  17  2.90  1.11  8.23  3.70  0.68
Pedro Martinez  32  186.2  206  47   7  2.22  1.04  9.93  4.38  0.34
Jamie Moyer     40  215.0  129  66  19  3.27  1.23  5.40  1.96  0.80
Mark Mulder     26  186.2  128  40  15  3.13  1.18  6.17  3.20  0.72
Mike Mussina    34  214.2  195  40  21  3.40  1.08  8.18  4.88  0.88
Andy Pettitte   31  208.1  180  50  21  4.02  1.33  7.78  3.60  0.91

There's only one relief pitcher in this group, and he isn't going to win. Keith Foulke had a great year as a closer for the Oakland A's, racking up 43 saves (overrated), while posting the lowest ERA and WHIP and the highest K/9 among the candidates. Unlike typical modern-day closers, Foulke actually pitched more than one inning on 21 occasions this season (Eric Gagne did so only 11 times). Unlike Gagne's candidacy in the NL, where the argument could be made that there aren't any ridiculous starting pitchers, the same can't be said of Foulke.

Bartolo Colon, while fat, was not the best pitcher in the American League. His rotundness notwithstanding, he posted the highest HR/9, third-highest WHIP, and second-lowest K/BB. He pitched the second-most innings, but gave up too many homeruns and did not strike out enough batters.

Forty-year-old Jamie Moyer is the oldest by six years, but that's not why he won't win the award. His HR/9 was very good, but his WHIP was only lower than Andy Pettitte's, and he simply doesn't ring up enough K's. He's a great pitcher, and probably will be for a few more years (I can't believe I just said that), but his K/9 and K/BB leave much to be desired. He was likely helped out considerably by the Mariners' defense and their four gold gloves. If he put that many balls into play with the Mets' defense behind him, he wouldn't have been nearly as "lucky".

Andy Pettitte had been a very good pitcher for the Yankees over the years, but he struggled away from the Stadium, posting an ERA a half-run higher on the road this season. He also gave up many more homeruns (15 to 6). This was just a flukey season for him, though. Right? Hardly. Over the previous three seasons (2000-2002), Pettitte's ERA was more than three-quarters of a run worse on the road (4.20 to 3.46), and his walks were way up (75 to 48) in a similar number of innings (268 to 275.2). Any ballclub interested in signing Pettitte to a megabucks contract may want to keep these in mind, especially if he'll be pitching his home games at Ten-Run Field in Houston. He wasn't even the best pitcher on his team, let alone the best in the league.

Along those lines, I'm also going to eliminate Mark Mulder. He had a great year for the A's, but wasn't quite as good as teammate Tim Hudson. They posted similar numbers, with Mulder posting better strikeout rates and Hudson giving up fewer homeruns. At the end of the day, I give the nod to Hudson because he posted comparable numbers over many more innings (53.1 more to be exact).

While I'm pickin' off A's, I'll dismiss Hudson too. Though slightly better than Mulder, his K/9 was not great and his K/BB was fairly poor. He had the second-best HR/9 here, but that just wasn't enough.

The Moose has been let loose. Mike Mussina put up another great season in pinstripes, and was overshadowed again (think Roger Clemens in 2001) by a teammate with lesser stats but more wins. I'm also going to cut Esteban Loaiza. I don't really have great reasons for cutting either of these guys, except that they weren't quite as good as Pedro and Halladay. They both put up tremendous numbers, and either could have won this award if the competition weren't so stiff.

Halladay or Pedro. Pedro or Halladay. This is a tough one, guys. Other than innings pitched and KK/B, Pedro dominated this race in almost every important category. His K/9 was awesome for a starting pitcher, his ERA and WHIP were microscopic (Halladay's WHIP was almost as low), and his HR/9 was otherworldly. The freakin' guy gave up seven homeruns in almost 190 innings! Despite Halladay throwing 80 more innings and posting the best K/BB of any starting pitcher in the bigs, I have to give this one to Pedro. Halladay will probably win the real award, but Pedro gets the Sabey.

2003 Saby Choice: Pedro Martinez
Predicted MLB Winner: Roy Halladay