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The 2003 Sabey Awards Part 3: NL Cy Young

If you missed them, check out the last two days of Sabey Award coverage:

The 2003 Sabey Awards Part 1: Rookie of the Year
The 2003 Sabey Awards Part 2: AL Cy Young

I've been looking at each of the candidates and evaluating them statistically. I give the Sabey to the player I feel is most deserving, and also make a prediction as to who will actually be chosen for the award.

Today I will look at the National League Cy Young award.



Player               Age  IP     K    BB  HR  ERA   WHIP   K/9   K/BB  HR/9
Eric Gagne           27   82.1  137   20   2  1.20  0.69  14.98  6.85  0.22
Kevin Millwood       28  222.0  169   68  19  4.01  1.25   6.85  2.49  0.77
Russ Ortiz           29  212.1  149  102  17  3.81  1.31   6.32  1.46  0.72
Mark Prior           23  211.1  245   50  15  2.43  1.10  10.43  4.90  0.64
Jason Schmidt        30  207.2  208   46  14  2.34  0.95   9.01  4.52  0.61
John Smoltz          36   64.1   73    8   2  1.12  0.87  10.21  9.13  0.28
Billy Wagner         32   86.0  105   23   8  1.78  0.87  10.99  4.57  0.84
Woody Williams       37  220.2  153   55  20  3.87  1.25   6.24  2.78  0.82
Randy Wolf           27  200.0  177   78  27  4.23  1.27   7.97  2.27  1.22
Kerry Wood           26  211.0  266  100  24  3.20  1.19  11.35  2.66  1.02

Unlike the American League race, where every player was a viable candidate for the award, there are a few stinkers here. Despite racking up 21 wins, Russ Ortiz wasn't very impressive this season (or in previous seasons, really). He has benefited much from playing for great teams (Braves, Giants), many of which played in PacBell, a great pitcher's park. His ERA is better than average for the league, but the guy walked 102 batters in 212 innings. What up with that? You might be saying, "Yea, well Kerry Wood walked 100 batters in 211 innings." True, but Mr. Wood also led the league in strikeouts, while Russ Ortiz had a lower strikeout rate than all-but-one of the candidates here. Which brings us to...

Woody Williams. Woody put up very good numbers in the first half, posting an ERA just a shade over 3.00 (3.01 to be precise). My man fell off the wagon (or maybe it was back on the wagon, given his performance in recent years) in Mid-July, though. He put up a bloated 5.23 ERA post-All-Star, whilst giving up 11 homers in only 86 innings.

The next two to leave are teammates. One pitched in the All-Star Game, the other just became a free agent and will likely command more money over more years than a middle-of-the-road starting pitcher should be hauling in. If you guessed Randy Wolf and Kevin Millwood, give yourself a gold star. Perhaps someone can look this up for me, but I would venture a guess that these are the two worst teammates to ever be candidates for this award in the same season. They both had ERA's over 4.00, they both had K/BB in the lower 2's, and while Wolf's K/9 is good, he gave up a slew of long balls this year: almost 1.25 jacks-per-nine. I pity the poor team who signs Millwood to a five-year, $60 million deal (please don't be the Mets, please don't be the Mets).

Billy Wagner (Wags) is a great pitcher with great stuff. He struck out more batters per nine innings than either John Smoltz or Mark Prior. His K/BB is good but not great for a closer. He's a bit prone to the tater, having given up 8 in 86 innings. Nevertheless, he was a huge pickup recently for the Phils, and should help put them over the top in the NL East this coming season. However, he happened to pitch during the same season as two of the best closers of all time (yes, I know it's early to say it, but it's hard to argue). Alas, Wagner won't be winning the Cy Young this year (or any other year, really).

Kerry Wood had another monster strikeout season, leading the bigs in both K's, K/9, and, unfortunately, almost leading the majors in walks (that particular honor belongs to Victor Zambrano). Wood could very well win a Cy Young award one day, that day just isn't today (or any day this week). He's not nearly the best pitcher on his own team, let alone in the whole league.

Now let's get down to it. We have four pitchers left: two starters, two relievers. John Smoltz had a brilliant year for the Braves, and actually posted a better ERA and K/BB than Eric Gagne. However, it's hard to overlook the man who broke the modern-day K/9 record (previously held by one Armando Benitez, when he K'd 14.77 batters per nine innings in 1999, splitting time between setup and, when Johnny Franco went on the DL, closer). Gagne was flat-out sick this year, notching an ERA of 1.20, a WHIP of 0.69, and a HR/9 of 0.22. That's just over 1/5 of one homerun every nine innings. Did I mention he set the record for most K's per nine innings? The man struck out nigh 15 batters for every 27 outs he recorded. He blew zero saves this season (one if you count the All-Star Game), though I don't find saves all that indicative of a pitcher's performance. This was quite possibly the best season for a relief pitcher ever, putting Dennis Eckersley's '92 Cy Young season to shame in virtually every category.

Deciding on the best starting pitcher between Mark Prior and Jason Schmidt is really a toss-up. Jason Schmidt had a better WHIP, but that was likely due to the Giants' infield defense being significantly better than the Cubs'. Their walks were about the same, homers were about the same, IP were about the same, ERA were about the same. See where I'm going with this? The main thing that really separates these two pitchers' performances is Prior's strikeout rate, which is a good bit better than Schmidt's. That's not to take anything away from Schmidt, who struck out more than a batter-per-inning, a great mark for a starting pitcher. But Prior struck out 37 more guys and, subsequently, had a better K/9 and K/BB ratio.

If Mark Prior were in the American League this season, he would have been my choice for AL Cy Young. It's unfortunate for him that he was not, because I think Eric Gagne was a better pitcher this year. Prior had a phenomenal year, and undoubtedly (barring injury) has one, probably multiple Cy Young awards in his future. He's only 23, and is already one of the best pitchers in the game. If you were to ask me who I would rather have on my team, the choice wouldn't even be close. Prior would be my #1 pick among all pitchers in the majors, but that's a different story. Gagne was obscenely good this year and, although he was probably babied a bit (as are most closers not named Mariano Rivera), he is the 2003 Saby Award winner for National League Cy Young.

2003 Saby Choice: Eric Gagne
Predicted MLB Winner: Eric Gagne