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The 2003 Sabey Awards Part 4: AL MVP

If you missed them, check out the last two days of Sabey Award coverage:

The 2003 Sabey Awards Part 1: Rookie of the Year
The 2003 Sabey Awards Part 2: AL Cy Young
The 2003 Sabey Awards Part 3: NL Cy Young

I've been looking at each of the candidates and evaluating them statistically. I give the Sabey to the player I feel is most deserving, and also make a prediction as to who will actually be chosen for the award.



NORMAL METRICS

                 Age AVG  OBP  SLG   BB   K   XBH  HR  AB    R   RBI
Garret Anderson  31  315  345  541   31   83   82  29  638   80  116
Bret Boone       34  294  366  535   68  125   75  35  622  111  117
Carlos Delgado   31  302  426  593  109  137   71  42  570  117  145
Nomar Garcia...  30  301  345  524   39   61   78  28  658  120  105
David Ortiz      27  288  369  592   58   83   72  31  448   79  101
Jorge Posada     32  281  405  518   93  110   54  30  481   83  101
Alex Rodriguez   28  298  396  600   87  126   83  47  607  124  118
Manny Ramirez    31  325  427  587   97   94   74  37  569  117  104
Shannon Stewart  29  307  364  459   52   66   59  13  573   90   73
Frank Thomas     35  267  390  562  100  115   77  42  546   87  105

ADVANCED METRICS

                    Win Shares  EqA  RARP
Garret Anderson     25.26 (11)  298  38.0
Bret Boone          29.71 (3)   313  66.0
Carlos Delgado      32.21 (2)   338  70.1
Nomar Garciaparra   25.19 (12)  296  55.1
David Ortiz         15.09 (68)  316  40.2
Jorge Posada        27.75 (5)   318  58.4
Alex Rodriguez      32.51 (1)   326  79.1
Manny Ramirez       27.59 (7)   341  70.7
Shannon Stewart     18.43 (40)  283  23.1
Frank Thomas        22.82 (19)  318  51.8
* explanations: win shares, eqa, and rarp

1) How can a player on a last-place team be the MVP? They would have finished last without him.
2) He struggled late in the season, when the games "really" matter.
3) He's smelly.
4) He doesn't play for the Yankees.
5) He makes too much money.

Those last three were filler, but you get the point. The first two arguments are not only misguided, but are downright ignorant. Dan Werr writes impressively about this in his AL MVP article at baseballprimer.com. The purpose of statistical analysis as it pertains to baseball players is to take the player out of the context in which he performed, and attempt to universalize his performance for comparison purposes. Is it Alex Rodriguez' fault that his team is lousy and he didn't play "meaningful" games in September? Are we to believe that Jorge Posada's performance in late-season games against also-rans like the Orioles and Devil Rays was somehow more "valuable" than A-Rod's in games against much tougher teams like the A's and Mariners? As you and I both know, the value of a win in September is roughly equivalent to the value of a win in April (or March, as in this season). So rather than debate the merits (or lack thereof) of these vagaries, I will instead make an attempt at determining, simply, which player is the best. The "Best Player" and the "Most Valuable Player", in my estimation, are rephrasings of the same conclusion.

Jayson Stark's non-sensical ramblings notwithstanding, Shannon Stewart is not a legitimate candidate for MVP. For that matter, David Ortiz and Garret Anderson aren't either. Anderson actually had more Win Shares this season than Nomah, who also won't be bringing home the hardware. Nomar and Ortiz were probably 3-4 on their own team this season, behind Manny, Trot Nixon, and probably even Bill Mueller.

I've always been a big fan of Frank Thomas the ballplayer. Even though Frank Thomas the human being has had less-than-stellar moments (like when he said his $10 mill annual salary was insulting), I've always been impressed by his talents. Before OBP and SLG were the talk of the town, The Big Hurt was putting up 1000 OPS seasons consistently. The guy was a beast for most of the 90's, and returned (mostly) to form this season after a couple of lackluster campaigns. His average isn't what it used to be, but he still walks a ton and can hit the ball a long way. Not the MVP though.

With Mike Piazza's recent string of mediocre numbers and painful groin injuries, Jorge Posada has become the marquee offensive backstop in all of baseball. Javy Lopez had a ridiculous season offensively, but I'd still take Jorgie for the long haul (though he's 32 already). He's got pop, he's a switch-hitter, and you've just gotta love a catcher who gets on base at a .400 clip. Though he plays a demanding defensive position, he's no great shakes in the field. He still passes balls like Dan Marino and, while I have heard that his throwing has improved, I certainly can't tell from his stats (.282, .290, .280 CS% the past three seasons).

Bret Boone, despite having a very large head, is quite a player. He's a gold glover at 2B, which makes his offensive production that much more impressive. Any time you can get significant production AND great defense from one of the big three (C, SS, 2B), you've got a great player on your hands. I don't know whether it's the THG or the Starbucks or if something just clicked, but ever since coming to Seattle, the man has been a hitting machine. He could take a few more walks, but other than that, he's the best second-baseman in the game. Not the MVP.

It should come as no surprise that C-Del, M-Ram, and A-Rod were in the top five in the AL in OPS, RARP (Runs Above Replacement batter at Position), runs scored, and SLG. This is the cream of the crop, folks. It should also come as no surprise that these three players rank at or near the top in annual salary (Rodriguez and Ramirez are 1 and 2, with Delgado not far behind). These are the kind of offensive forces that you build a franchise around (albeit with more reasonable price tags). Rodriguez is the youngest and the only of the three on the better side of 30. Ramirez had the highest average of the three, and had an OBP just a shade higher than Delgado. Rodriguez was tops in the league in SLG. A-Rod also swiped 17 bases in 20 attempts for an 85% success rate. What really separates these three behemoths from each other is their performance relative to others who play their position. LF and 1B are the two least demanding defensive positions (according to Bill James' defensive spectrum, not counting DH), while shortstop is the single-most demanding position (not counting catcher, which is considered a special case). The defensive spectrum looks like this:

[ DH - 1B - LF - RF - 3B - CF - 2B - SS - C ]

Offense is more highly concentrated on the left end of the spectrum, while defense is more highly concentrated on the right end. It's much harder to find a productive offensive player at 2B or SS than it is at 1B or DH. It is typical for a ballplayer to move leftward along the spectrum, though it is rare for one to move rightward. With any luck, Mr. Piazza will be making a great leftward shift in the coming season, though he may end up shifting even further for an AL team. The defensive spectrum attempts to illustrate how similar offensive production is much more valuable from a shortstop than it is from a left-fielder or a first-baseman. This difference is reflected in a player's RARP. While Delgado and Rodriguez put up similar offensive numbers this season (Delgado held the edge in most, including OPS), A-Rod's performance is more impressive because his was done while playing a position that is less inclined to do so.

2003 Sabey Choice: Alex Rodriguez
Predicted MLB Winner: Alex Rodriguez