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It's A Maddux Maddux Maddux Maddux World

Before I get into the main topic, ESPN.com's Peter Gammons is reporting that the Mets and Kazuo Matsui have agreed to a three-year deal worth $6.7 million annually. There have been reports and articles all weekend to this effect, but now it seems almost official. If this is the case, I will break down what the Mets can reasonably expect out of Matsui later this week.


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The Atlanta Braves have cut ties to their second-longest-tenured player, Greg Maddux (John Smoltz has the longest current tenure). With the arbitration deadline passing last night, Maddux's eleven-year run as (usually) the ace of the Braves staff will be coming to an end. Maddux's dominance has diminished as he has gotten on in years, but he is still a productive pitcher and will undoubtedly help whomever he signs with this offseason (The Padres are the early favorites to secure his services).

From 1992-1995, Maddux put together one of the most dominant streaks in baseball history, taking home four consecutive Cy Young Awards, a feat matched only by The Big Unit from 1999-2002. During those four seasons, Maddux had an average ERA of 1.98, posting individual ERAs of 2.18, 2.36, 1.56, and 1.63. The last two of those seasons were downright silly. He surrendered a grand total of 12 homeruns in 411.2 innings in 1994 and 1995, going 35-8 over that span.

From 1992-1995 he averaged 7.6 innings per start, and averaged a dead-ball-era-esque eight innings per start in 1994. In 2003, that average fell to fewer than six innings per start. The one thing that has accelerated Maddux's decline more than anything else has been his strikeout rate.

Year   IP     K/9    K/BB   HR/9
2000  249.1   6.86   4.52   0.67
2001  233.0   6.68   6.41   0.77
2002  199.1   5.33   2.62   0.63
2003  218.1   5.11   3.76   0.99


His strikeouts per nine innings have decreased in each of the past three seasons, which is fairly common among pitchers as they careen towards retirement. Maddux has never had an overpowering fastball, but his movement and command have been so impeccable that he has actually racked up a fair amount of strikeouts over the years. In fact, in 1994 he averaged 7.77 K's per nine innings, the best of his career.

For most pitchers, when the strikeout rate goes so does success. Maddux has been able to keep the wheels from falling off entirely by limiting the number of walks and homeruns he has given up. He gave up only 33 walks this season, averaging one per 6.6 innings, a terrific rate. However, his homerun rate, while still decent at just under one-per-nine, was the highest of his career. His ERA (3.96), OPS against (.715) and GPA against (.238) were all higher than any season since his rookie year in 1987 (5.61 ERA, .822 OPS, .267 GPA).

You can't really blame the Braves for declining to offer Greg Maddux arbitration. They offered it to him last season and were burned. Thinking it would give them more time to negotiate with him, the Braves ended up holding their junk when Maddux was awarded the largest single-season arbitration settlement of $14.75 million. As a result, the Braves were way over-budget and were forced to trade Kevin Millwood to the Phillies.

Maddux will be sure to catch on with somebody, probably for one or two seasons with a vesting option for an additional year. I wouldn't expect him to get much more than $6-7 million per. That's a far cry from the nigh $15 million he netted this season, but as Curt Schilling pointed out prior to his negotiations with the Red Sox, that's still money on top of money he'll never spend.