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Much Ado About Nothing Much

With reports flying suggesting that Andy Pettitte is close to signing a three-year deal with the Astros, all I keep reading and hearing from New York media outlets is how it would be an atrocity for the Yankees to let Pettitte go. The word from those in the know is that George Steinbrenner has lost his mind, and is engineering most of the Yankees' offseason moves in direct conflict with the opinions of GM Brian Cashman and manager Joe Torre.

I've never really understood what all of the hub-bub is about Andy Pettitte. He's a nice pitcher, don't get me wrong. But he's on the verge of signing a contract worth $10 million per year or more and, despite his wonderful balk move and devout catholicism, I'm not exactly convinced that he's worth eight figures. I'm a life-long Mets fan and, as such, a life-long Yankee hater. Be that as it may, I won't let it stand in my way of an objective analysis of Mr. Pettitte.

The following are regular seasons stats for two American League pitchers from 1999-2003.

             WL%   ERA   K/9   K/BB   HR/9
Player A    .626   3.97  6.70  2.06   1.01
Player B    .656   4.12  6.58  2.35   0.75

These two players have posted very similar stats over the past five seasons. Player A has the edge in ERA and K/9, while Player B has an edge in K/BB (better control) and HR/9. Let's check out what batters have done against these two over that same span.

         Player A      Player B
         OPS  GPA      OPS  GPA
1999    .741 .254     .808 .274
2000    .733 .249     .738 .252
2001    .625 .212     .713 .241
2002    .729 .244     .681 .233
2003    .751 .253     .713 .240

Pretty similar here too. Player A was better from 1999-2001, while Player B was a little better for 2002-2003. Player A made $6.875 million last season and his team, despite being in the thick of the pennant race, tried to trade him at the deadline last season. Player B made $11.5 million last season, pitched in the World Series, and has a cleft chin.

If you haven't already guessed, Player B is Andy Pettitte. Player A is none other than Rock look-alike Freddy Garcia. Pettitte's next contract will be in the $11-13 million dollar range, while Garcia will be lucky to see Kelvim Escobar money ($6.25 million annually). Why would Pettitte be likely to command so much more money? My two best explanations are:

a) his post-season performance
b) he's a lefty

Many applaud Pettitte's success in the numerous Yankee post-seasons he has pitched in, and how he really "steps it up" in the big games. But has he?

                 ERA   WHIP   K/9   K/BB   HR/9
Regular Season   3.94  1.38   6.40  2.20   0.72
Post-season      4.49  1.33   4.96  2.05   1.03

Granted, the post-season is against the best teams in the league and, in most cases, the best hitters in the league as well. That notwithstanding, you'd have a tough time convincing me that he was better in October (and November) than in all other months. In fact, by almost any measure, he was easily worse in the playoffs than during the regular season, even after considering the strength of competition.

But what of his ability to succeed under the bright lights of New York where others have failed? True, not every player is cut out to play in the big city. If I could put a dollar value on that, however, I might also be able to quantify all of Derek Jeter's intangibles in hopes of explaining the logic behind paying a poor defensive shortstop with some pop $19 million per season.