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Things Are Not As Vlad As They Seem

You never know. I almost shat myself when I saw this at ESPN.com last night:

Report: Mets interested in signing Guerrero

The likelihood of the Mets signing Vladimir Guerrero is remote at best. He has an offer on the table from Baltimore for 5 years, $65 million, that has seemingly been out there since he became a free agent. The Dodgers and Marlins are allegedly interested, though my guess is that any deal with Florida would be contingent on a new stadium deal (a la the Mike Lowell deal).

We've known all long that Guerrero desires a new home with a significant Dominican population. Baltimore does not fit that bill. Florida does, but there are contract issues there that I am skeptical about. New York can definitely cash in here, as it sports a large Dominican contingency, as well as a general wealth of spanish-speaking individuals.

Guerrero's fear of the big stage spotlight appears to have been overblown, as his agent has testified to the contrary.

The hangup, as usual, is the money and contract length. Mets GM Jim Duquette has gone on record as saying that his organization has put a three-year cap on free agent contracts. This could actually work to Guerrero's advantage. Lets say the Mets ink him to a three-year deal worth $15-$16 annually, plus a couple of mutual options that could bring it up to five-years, $80 million. Guerrero could then go out there for the next three seasons and continue to tear apart National League pitching (he sports a career 978 OPS). After his three seasons, he'll still only be 30 years old. If the market opens up a bit for him, he will have proven that:

a) he can play in the big city
b) his back is fine
c) he's one of the five best players in baseball

If he wants out of the contract at that point, the Yankees could then sign him for four-or-five years at $16-$18 million per. If he can't get that kind of deal, he can stay with the Mets for another year or two at $16 million, and continue to test the waters after each subsequent season.

Plus, with the Mets he would actually have a chance to compete for something other than third place. Granted, the Mets are not in position to win anything in 2004 (though Guerrero could be enough to push them from a .500 team to a Marlins-esque underdog). However, they stand a very good chance of competing in 2005 and 2006, particularly with Scott Kazmir and David Wright making their way to big Shea.

If you want Vlad, you can now make your voice heard. Head on over to SignVlad.com, where you can sign an online petition or fill out a mail-in petition to send Mets owner Fred Wilpon and beseech him to sign Guerrero.

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Believe it or not, there are two new Mets blogs to check out on the sidebar. The first is East Coast Agony, a two-headed blog monster featuring two long-suffering baseball fans: Red Sox fan Big K and Mets fan Metropolitan Mike.

The second is The Baseball Blog of Oz, which discusses current Mets events, as well as other local professional sports.

Stop by both and say hi.

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SaberMets passed the 10,000 visitor mark yesterday, which is an honor to me and a testament to you, the readers. Given the large number of return visitors, I realize that many of you have eschewed better judgment by continuing to read the nonsensical digressions of an obsessed baseball fan, and for that I thank you.