derisively-intellectual mets chatter

February 19, 2004

A-Rod Not That Great


By now, hopefully everyone has come to grips with the fact that Alex Rodriguez has been traded to the New York Yankees. If you haven't, it's probably because people like Bob Klapisch and Joel Sherman keep bringing it up, all-the-while taking not-so-subtle jabs at the Mets. In his latest dropping, "Klap" questions why the Mets didn't phone Texas themselves and dangle Jose Reyes in exchange for Rodriguez. According to a "major league executive":
"Why didn't they pick up the phone and try to trade (Jose) Reyes?" said the executive. "He's going to be a great player and costs a lot less than (Alfonso) Soriano. One guy is making $5.4 million, the other is making $300,000. I don't think that's such a great deal for Texas. Reyes might have made more sense if someone had been smart enough to think of it."
A person familiar with Klapisch's way of thinking revealed to me, on the condition that I mention him by name, that the "major league executive" was actually the janitorial supervisor for the Anaheim Angels. Despite his best efforts, Klapisch actually brings up an interesting point. If you're the GM of the Mets, do you pick up the phone?

I used to think, "Yes, absolutely", but I'm not so sure anymore. It's not that Rodriguez isn't a great player, because he is. With the Mets going in a direction of youth, it doesn't seem prudent to spend $16 million on one player, especially if the talent cost is arguably the best position player to come through this organization in almost twenty years. Twenty is the number of the day, it would seem, as Reyes is only that many years old (we think). If he adapts to the switch to second base as many hope he does, he may prove just as valuable as he would have at shortstop, given the dearth of offensive talent at the keystone position.

The other problem, as I see it, is that Rodriguez, despite his many, many talents, may not be as good as his reputation or his ubiquitous label of "best player in baseball" have led us to believe. Over the past three seasons, Alex Rodriguez has an OPS (on-base percentage plus slugging percentage) of 1.011, which is phenomenal. However, EIGHT players have been better over that same span:

OPS 2001-2003

1    Barry Bonds               1.349   
2    Todd Helton               1.071   
3    Manny Ramirez             1.037   
4    Jim Thome                 1.036   
5    Jason Giambi              1.035   
6    Sammy Sosa                1.032   
7    Albert Pujols             1.025   
8    Larry Walker              1.014   
9    Alex Rodriguez            1.011   
10   Brian Giles               1.003 


Manny Ramirez, who Rodriguez would have been traded for had Red Sox owner John Henry not "failed" in his efforts to reach an agreement, is 3rd to Rodriguez' 9th.

Not only that, Rodriguez has spent his last three seasons in Texas, which has recorded park factors of 100, 112, and 110 since 2001. What about Ramirez playing at Fenway, you ask? Fenway Park, notoriously a good hitters park, has recorded park factors of 101, 98, and 105 since 2001. Jim Thome, who also has a higher OPS than Rodriguez, has seen park factors of 102, 93 (Cleveland) and 95 (Philadelphia). Jason Giambi? 93, 98, and 96. Don't even get me started on Barry Bonds, who has slugged his way through park factors of 91, 91 and a surprising 99 to annihilate the competition.

Rodriguez has won back-to-back gold gloves as a shortstop, but he's not even a shortstop anymore! Even if he were, many defensive metrics suggest that he's a good defensive player, but hardly great. Couple that with the fact that he's learning a new position, and he projects to be average defensively, at best. He's a very good athlete, but a few months of Spring Training aren't going to make him an ace at the hot corner.

At best, I would say Rodriguez is the fourth best hitter in baseball (behind God, Pujols, and Ramirez), though you could make an argument for a half dozen other players. Take away his gold gloves, and he becomes one of the better hitters in the game, playing a defensive position he isn't accustomed to, and in a park that is much less friendly to hitters than he's used to. He IS batting in a better lineup than he has in the past, but it's not like Juan Gonzalez, Rafael Palmeiro, and Pudge Rodriguez are meager with the stick.

There is no question that Alex Rodriguez is one of the elite players in baseball, but you'd have a tough time convincing me that he is the best, as so many people might have you believe.

Feedback: Do you think Alex Rodriguez is the best player in the game? Do you think he's the best player not named Barry Bonds?


Comments

I've got to say Bonds is better than A-Rod, for the simple fact that the guy changes an entire baseball game. It's almost like he knows what's coming. A-Rod is a good player, but he doesn't dictate a game likes Bonds does.

After that, I'd go with Pujols. Then A-Rod.

I mean, it's scary to think that Pujols might not even be at his peak yet.

Posted by: a2d - February 20, 2004 at 12:50 AM EST

Despite lagging behind some players in a few offensive categories, I think A-Rod's title as the best player in baseball is not wholey without merit. The guy's got the complete package - Gold Glove caliber defense and one of only a few current players who are a threat to hit for the triple crown. And the fact that he's done all that he's done before reaching his 29th birthday doesn't hurt either. However, if you gave me a choice between who is simply the better hitter and who has more of a potential upside in the batters box from this season forward, I think you have to go with Pujols (assuming his stated age is correct).

Posted by: Norm - February 20, 2004 at 11:16 AM EST

The list boils down to Bonds, Sosa, Pujols, and Rodriguez in my mind. (Manny, Giambi and Thome are basically DH/1B types and Helton and Walker are out for Coors reasons).

While "best" doesn't neccessarily mean "complete" that is something that should be included. A-Rod's glove and speed is something he brings to the table that no one else on the list does. Pujols has versatility, playing four positions. But odds are he's not a Gold Glover anywhere. Bonds has gold gloves, but those days are behind him.

I do think park factors for Bonds is misleading. The park factor takes the WHOLE park into consideration, and Barry ain't using the whole park. Pac Bell was built for Barry's left-handed pull stroke and it's 307 down the line to right field.

Other stadium stats are misleading for Barry. ESPN this summer claimed that Pac Bell was the "hardest park to hit HRs to RF in" because it had the fewest total HRs hit to RF. And Barry has over half those HRs, so it must be very hard and Barry's very good.
But apply common sense to the stats. First, the fewest HRs hit to RF doesn't mean it's the HARDEST. the park with the lowest number of homeruns to RF per plate appearance by a lefty should get that distinction. Most homers to RF are hit by lefties. Barry plays 81 games there, the only other lefty to play more than 10 games there in a season is JT Snow. Barry SHOULD have more than half the HRs hit to RF. He should be up 8-1 on anyone not named JT Snow. In his career, Helton averages 16 HRs per 81 games played at Pac Bell. Last year, Barry had 16. Take the Giants above-average staff into consideration and that's about right.
The bigger question is why haven't the Giants added more lefty power hitters? (Well, the real big question is why do teams allow Barry to be so comfortable on top of the plate).

Posted by: Kevin - February 20, 2004 at 01:22 PM EST

Eric,
Finally, a voice of reason. I've been thinking the very same thoughts over the past week. In fact, I e-mailed Aaron Gleeman and asked him to please set the record straight with regard to "best player in the game". He took me up on the challenge and it appears in today's blog. Look at it this way. Bonds average OPS over the past 3 years is 1,346 and ARod's is 1,011. That's a difference of .335. In the same span, ARod's OPS is .323 higher than Rey Ordonez's. So the gap between Bonds and ARod is greater than the gap between ARod and the anemic Rey-Rey. WOW! Even considering the idea that ARod is better than Bonds is silly. THEY ARE NOT COMPARABLE PLAYERS! If they were, than the factor of defensive position would be relevant. But they're not. ARod is a great player, as are many others. Bonds is a statistical anomaly, a player with no current peer. Like you, I refer to him as "God". And I don't really even like him. The most amazing thing about the past few weeks is that almost every commentator simply says that ARod is the best player in the game. Are they that uninformed? I guess so. And as for the silly argument that ARod is younger and somehow that makes him better, than what about Pujols? Quite simply, unless your name is Ruth you cannot be better than Bonds. Does everyone understand what a .542 OBP means? ARod's over the past 3 years is .396. Slugging percentage for Bonds is .804. ARod's is .615. According to baseball-reference.com the most comparable player historically to ARod is Piazza. For Bonds it is that Ruth fellow.
Thanks for the sanity,
Steve

Posted by: Steve - February 20, 2004 at 09:09 PM EST

Steve builds a powerful case, but still. It kind of depends on the purpose for asking the question. If someone offered you the rest of A-Rod's career or the rest of Bonds's career, I hope it wouldn't take you too long to choose the former. Going forward, A-Rod has more total value to a franchise than Bonds. He has more trade value, doesn't he? If you're asking me who is "better" in terms of how they've produced in the last 1, 2, 3, X years (pick your number -- it doesn't matter how many years it is, the answer remains the same), the answer is Bonds. Easily. If you're asking me who is likely to be better in 2004, the answer remains Bonds.

But if you offered me either player for the rest of his career, I'd take A-Rod.

Posted by: Sam M - February 21, 2004 at 03:46 PM EST

Good point Sam, it's an important distinction to make. In all likelihood, A-Rod will play another 10+ years, while compiling some 300 additional Win Shares, while Bonds has three years left on his current deal, and might see another 100 Win Shares.

Of course, Pujols could play another 15 years and put up 400-something Win Shares.

There is no question that A-Rod will have the more productive career moving forward, just as there's no question who has been the better player over the past few seasons (or more).

Posted by: Eric Simon - February 21, 2004 at 04:25 PM EST

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