SaberMets.com: Reader Mail

March 04, 2004

Reader Mail

David from Delaware has a long-term Mets question...

How come they're bothering to move poor Victor Diaz to third when they've got David Wright waiting in the wings? Both are pretty good prospects, and it seems like there won't be room for both of them in a couple of years. Looking at the messy corner outfielder situation, and barring any unforeseen trades/free agent pickups, in two-to-three years the Mets will need both a left AND right fielder. Floyd can't last forever in left, I picture him as a DH after this contract runs out. And who knows what'll happen in right. Wouldn't Diaz be better off being converted to a corner outfield position? Or maybe even a first-basemen - another position where the Mets could use surely some long-term help.

I was going to mention this myself, because I don't really understand it. Victor Diaz was acquired from the Dodgers last summer in the Jeromy Burnitz deal.

Originally a 37th round pick in 2000, Diaz has laid waste to minor league pitching at every level he's played. He has developing power, minimal plate discipline, but an uncanny ability to hit for average.

As a 19 year old, Diaz destroyed the Gulf Coast League, hitting .354 in 195 AB. He followed that up with a .350 mark in the South Atlantic League before hitting .354 again for the Binghamton Mets (AA).

That said, Diaz is erratic in the field, which is being kind. His weight has been a problem in the past, but he lost 20 pounds since the end of last season, which management promised would earn him an invite to Spring Training.

He came to the Mets as a second-baseman, but the big league opening at that position is filled for the foreseeable future by Jose Reyes. They are currently trying him out at third base, which is where today's question leaves us.

Ty Wigginton, the Mets current hot-corner resident, is a place-holder at best. His best-case scenario is league-average offense with below-average defense. He's a good kid, and he's easy to root for, but he's not much of a ballplayer.

Fortunately for the Mets, he doesn't have to be. Fortunately for the Mets, the #5 prospect in all of baseball (according to Baseball Prospectus) is ascending the minor league ladder, with a target date to arrive at Shea sometime in 2005. Fortunately for the Mets, they have David Wright. BP, despite usually avoiding tags like "the next Joe Somebody", have christened Wright as "the next Scott Rolen", which is about as good as anyone could ask for.

Wright has shown great plate discipline, drawing 164 walks in 1082 minor league at-bats. His power is coming, as he hit 15 homeruns last season. He's also good with the glove, with a strong arm, good range, and good hands. On top of all of that, he just turned 21 in December.

So what exactly are the Mets thinking by trying out Victor Diaz at third? Quite honestly, I don't really know. They may think so little of Wigginton that they want someone with a little pop to play third until Wright is ready. The flaw there lies in the fact that, despite Wigginton finishing last in the league in most defensive metrics, Diaz would almost certainly be worse. He made three errors there in the Mets intra-squad game the other day.

If the plan is to eventually move Diaz to the outfield, why waste everyone's time and patience trying him out at third? The Mets certainly need some help in right field, though left and center field are locked up for the next three years by Cliff Floyd and Mike Cameron, respectively. While Floyd could miss plenty of time over the next three years, I just don't know if Diaz really fits in there.

It may just be that the Mets are trying to find somewhere Diaz can be comfortable and avoid embarrassing himself and his team, and then trade him off for a real right-fielder (Magglio Ordonez maybe).

Diaz is a hitting machine, and if he can learn to take a few more walks he could be a very effective Major League hitter one day. He's only 22, and may start the season as high as AAA. I'm sure we'll know before too long what the Mets have in store for him.

Eric | March 4, 2004 - 11:09 AM EST | TrackBack: 16
Category: Mailbag

Comments

Trade value. If Diaz shows he can handle third base competently (or at least that he has the skills and could develop competence with experience), it increases his trade value greatly. Right now, a lot of teams wouldn't even consider him because he hasn't established a defensive position he can handle. OK, then, why not the OF, you ask? Couldn't he establish himself out there and improve his trade value? Sure, but not as much as he would if he can handle third base. In short, it's in the Mets' interest for Diaz to show he can handle the most demanding defensive position possible. That justifies starting with third base, and (if that doesn't work out), then trying the OF next.

Posted by: Sam M - March 4, 2004 at 01:25 PM EST

Don't tease me with thoughts of a Diaz for Maglio Ordonez trade.

Posted by: Norm - March 4, 2004 at 02:55 PM EST

BUT, if it's just to increase trade value, then why not just leave him at second? A guy who can hit like he can is just as valuable at second base than third, if not more. He's not going to be any better at fielding 3B than he is at second, as third may be even more difficult to play than second base. It doesn't make sense. Or, they could just turn him into a 1st baseman, and he could be a (albeit less talented defensively) Olerud-type player that hits for average, gets on base, but has no power.

Posted by: Dave - March 5, 2004 at 06:21 PM EST

Except, Dave, that I think they've concluded he can't play second base. Third may be "more difficult," in some general sense, but Diaz's issues seem to be about footwork and range, which are bigger issues at second base than at third. Having decided he has to be moved, they decided to move him initially to the position that, if he CAN play it, would leave him with the most value: third base.

Anyway, it's just a theory. Given the depth in the organization at 3B (Wigginton, Wright, Baldiris), adding Diaz to the line at that position certainly doesn't seem to make sense otherwise. Here's one possibility, I guess: they do have Daniel Garcia at second base for Norfolk, and might have been thinking something as simple and short-term as where they want Diaz to play when they send him down to AAA.

Posted by: Sam M - March 5, 2004 at 07:00 PM EST