SaberMets.com: Spring Has Sprung

March 18, 2004

Spring Has Sprung

I apologize for the lack of posts, for I am lazy and had nothing to write about.

As we approach the end of Spring Training and the beginning of a new season, it's good to reflect back upon the questions that this offseason hoped to answer for the 2004 Mets.

1. How can we get rid of this useful player who has put up terrific numbers in the minor leagues, can play a couple of infield positions at which offense is at a premium, will make the league minimum, and, at the very least, would be a valuable asset coming off the bench?

2. We have $1,000,000 and an unused roster spot just going to waste for the next two years. Surely we can find some retread who is completely useless with the stick but can play virtually any defensive position, albeit rather inadequately, can't we?

3. Our closer has clearly worn out his welcome, so it's time to find a suitable replacement. However, we know how fans are resistant to change, so let's make sure that the new closer shares the same propensity for blowing saves and, if possible, has worse stuff and a funny name.

4. Sign Karim Garcia and have him piss on the wall of a St. Lucie pizza shop.

All kidding aside, we are coming dangerously close to opening day, and the Mets are looking a bit wobbly. Nagging injuries are popping up left and right. Jose Reyes and Kaz Matsui, the dynamic new double-play combination, have yet to play in a real game together. Mike Cameron has bone spurs in his toe that will probably haunt him all season, a la Cliff Floyd in 2003. Mike Piazza tweaked something-or-other making a stretch at first base and hasn't played the position since.

Worst of all, James Baldwin is still in camp. Who knows why? I don't know. With only two weeks until the season starts, there are but a few roster spots up for grabs. Here is how I see the 25-manner shaking out.

C   Mike Piazza
1B   Jason Phillips
2B   Jose Reyes
3B   Ty Wigginton
SS   Kaz Matsui
LF   Cliff Floyd
CF   Mike Cameron
RF   Karim Garcia/Shane Spencer

That's nine thus far. These are your starters. If you don't know them already, don't bother, as any number of them could be missing from time to time thanks to a groin pull here and a cracked nail there.

C   Vance Wilson
IF   Joe McEwing
IF   Todd Zeile
OF   Roger Cedeno
OF   Timo Perez

Ugh, our bench sucks big time. This is almost as bad as last season when we had Jay Bell, Tony Clark, Joe McEwing, Timo Perez...ok, it was practically the same crappy bench, with Todd Zeile instead of Jay Bell and Shane Spencer instead of Tony Clark. John Franco better keep warm because he might be coming off the bench to hit in a tight game.

SP   Al Leiter
SP   Tom Glavine
SP   Steve Trachsel
SP   Jae Seo
SP   Grant Roberts

Those are my choices, with Aaron Heilman starting the season at AAA to get some work in. I'm quite afraid that the Mets will hand the fifth starter job to Scott Erickson and put Grant Roberts in the bullpen. Erickson has been throwing respectably in Spring Training, but I just can't see things working out for him.

RP   Braden Looper
RP   Mike Stanton
RP   David Weathers
RP   John Franco
RP   Tyler Yates
RP   Dan Wheeler OR Orber Moreno

Sadly, the relief corps probably won't shake out like this. Roberts will likely take one spot, Pedro Feliciano could occupy the other, and god only knows where Ricky Bottalico will end up. Either way, the bullpen will likely be so-so. Stanton and Franco are basically useless as pitchers, though Franco is turning into a very respectable bullpen coach. Weathers is quite decent, and any combination of Yates/Wheeler/Moreno/Roberts would be very effective. Looper is a question mark until he proves otherwise.

The starting lineup, when healthy, should be pretty strong. The starting rotation, when healthy, is decent. The bench, as mentioned before, is an abomination. The bullpen should be league average.

2004 Prediction: 82-80

I think that's a reasonable prediction, and would represent a 13 game improvement, which is significant. Not significant enough to get into the post-season, but enough to be hopeful about the prospects of 2005 and beyond. That is, so long as The Duke doesn't go and trade Scott Kazmir for Whiffy McSrikeout.

Eric | March 18, 2004 - 10:32 PM EST | TrackBack: 1
Category: Mets

Comments

Welcome back Eric.

82-80 is a pretty damn respectable finish for this team IMO, and I'd be quite pleased with that record when(if) it is put in context against 02 & 03.

Your analysis is solid, though I don't like the idea of putting Tyler Yates back in the bullpen for a few reasons.

Without Yates, the Mets strongest position in the farm is hard-throwing righty relievers, while our crop of hard-throwing righty starters is decent/good. Keeping Yates a starter allows our righty starting pitching to remain a strength, adding significant value to our development stock and our trade stock. Regardless, starters always have more value than relievers anyway.

Also, he's been pitching on a starter's schedule for over a year now and appears to finally be growing really accustomed to it. I feel like the switch back to short-rest reliever can throw off his sync, especially asking him to make the transition right now, 2 weeks before the start of the season.

Most important of all, he's likely to increase his chance for injury throwing on short rest.

Let Yates start in AAA, he'll get his chance sooner than later, and give Wheeler and Moreno the final spots in the pen.

Posted by: Mike Marino - March 19, 2004 at 11:29 AM EST

Hm, no love for Heilamn huh Eric?

I really think it would benefit the guy the most to start the seaosn with the Mets and stay there the whole year. Yes, he had an awful season last year, yes, he probably might not be the absolute best for the position, but I really think he needs the second shot and it seems like Peterson is already rubbing off on him.

Anywho, we're all just kidding ourselves, Erickson will be the fifth.

Posted by: Matt - March 20, 2004 at 11:39 AM EST

Good points, both. I agree that Yates should remain a starter, and he pitched well again yesterday. I would like to see Heilman start with the Mets, but would be okay with him starting the year at AAA. If it's between that and Grant Roberts going to the bullpen, I'd rather Aaron get some more minor league innings in there.

We all hope Scott Erickson either doesn't make the team or goes throws out his back humping Lisa Guerrero, but I'm not about to hold my breath on either. Ricky Bottalico has been pitching respectably, so I don't know where exactly he fits in. Well, I do know; it's called the waiver wire.

Posted by: Eric Simon - March 20, 2004 at 06:50 PM EST

throws out his back humping Lisa Guerrero... good and bad mental pictures at the same time...

Anyway, I really wanna stop thinking about that bench. Ever since I wrote about it a little while ago, it seems to haunt my dreams...

Posted by: Jeremy Heit - March 20, 2004 at 08:28 PM EST

Yeah, what scares me even more than the fifth starter is the bench. Cedeno AND McEwing? Phew, unstoppable forces.

Posted by: Matt - March 21, 2004 at 06:16 PM EST

I read Ball Four for the first time last year. Bouton makes it clear that many personnel decisions are made on the basis of whether manager/coaches, etc. like a guy or not. I would state with much confidence that Howe, et. al. think McEwing is quite a nice fellow but did not like Scutaro.

Posted by: Tom - April 1, 2004 at 10:05 PM EST