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I can't agree with the suggestion of sitting Jason Phillips for Shane Spencer. Phillips is struggling, but he's not this bad. He's probably not the player he was in 2003 either. More likely he's what he was in the minor leagues (.279/.337/.427/.764).

Let's assume he ends the year about 20-30 points below his minor league numbers, say .260/.330/.400/.730. Sound possible?

To get there he'd have to get hot and hit .300 the rest of the way, continue walking and get a few extra base hits. In other words, to do something like what he did for the whole of 2003.

Perhaps this won't happen, but 70 at bats don't tell the story. Phillips is either in a terrible slump or he's amidst a tremendous collapse, and 2003 was one of the all-time flukes, rather than a great year by an average player. That might be so, but the first seems more likely to me, and I'd sure rather give him another 70-100 at bats to find out

Especially since the numbers suggest the exact opposite for his proposed replacement. Shane Spencer is currently hitting 93 points above his career average, with an OPS 111 points above his career average. He is not, however, walking more or hitting for greater power; in fact, he's walked three times, and his power numbers are down slightly. It seems very likely that Spencer will dip to something like his career numbers.

Let's assume that, even with the drop, he still has a career year, and ends up around .280/.340/.450/.790. These numbers are, in each case, 10-20 points higher than his career numbers, and higher in most cases than his best year.

To achieve this, the rest of the way he'd have to hit .263/.297/.445/.743. This, with the exception of his OBP, is right around his career averages. I'd certainly guess, given that, that this is a ceiling, not a floor, and he is perhaps slightly more likely to do worse.

It seems to me that their past history suggests that the two players are not terribly different, but that Spencer has played well above his head so far, while Phillips has played well below. Given that, while I might find an extra game or two for Spencer while he's still mashing, I'd expect Phillips to do better over the long run, and thus keep his bat in the line-up most of the time.

I've seen similar criticism directed at Grant Roberts, who is indeed a harder case because he may be injured. But Roberts has only pitched 4.1 innings. He got bombed in his first two outings, but hasn't seen the mound in two weeks. It's possible his arm is dead, but how on earth could we, as fans, know that?

There's two ways to find out. One is to have a doctor look at him, and that may make sense. The other is to let him pitch, and see if things improve. If we're thinking of making changes to the rotation, why not try Roberts a few times rather than Yates (though I'm happy keeping Yates there). Otherwise, get him innings in relief whenever possible. If he continues to get ripped time and again, by all means get rid of him. But this was a guy considered for the starting rotation in the spring who very nearly won the job. Are we willing so impatient that we'd dump him on the basis of 4.1 innings?

Points taken, James. But how much time should Phillips be given? He's already been terrible for a month, do the Mets sit around and let him be terrible for another whole month? Spencer is playing over his head a bit, but he's also the hot hand (one of few), and I'd have a hard time sitting him in favor of some as ice-cold as Phillips.

He's also a pretty good outfielder, and Phillips is a very bad first-baseman. His range at first is even worse than Wigginton's range at third, and I'm at a point where I'd much rather see Vance Wilson catch when Piazza is playing first. If/When Spencer regresses to form, then it's time to take him out.

I agree with you on Grant Roberts, but what can you do? Art Howe has apparently lost all faith in him, and despite pitching only a few innings, his velocity was noticeably slower. He used to hit 93-95 a few years back and he was struggling to get it above 85. Roberts isn't the problem, though. John Franco is, but the Mets don't have the grapes to cut him loose.

Exactly, if Roberts isn't going to pitch again then there is no reason they should be wasting a roster spot on the 25 and 40-man.

On Phillips, yes, let him go for another month before pulling the plug. I say that for two reasons: 1) his minor league history, and successful 2003, indicate that he could be an above average major league player, especially as a catcher; and 2) there's no catcher ready to come up this year or next.

Phillips' minor league numbers indicate that his 2003 is, in part, repeatable. His hit .298 last year versus .285 in AAA and .300 in AA. His Iso-P was .144 in 2003, after a steady increase at each level from .126 in A to .162 in AA to .183 in AAA. On balance, his hitting was similar to his numbers in AAA and AA. What was new was his walks, which seems less likely to be a fluke.

Phillips can bring value if he does three things the rest of this year, and in 2005: 1) hit around .275, 10 points below his AAA average; 2) slightly increase his power to his AAA level, for a slugging of around .450; and 3) maintain his decent walk rate of 2003 (and early 04), thus giving him an OBP of around .340-350. With these numbers, he'd have an OPS of .790-.800, which is slightly below what he did in 2003.

As a first baseman, that would rank him around 10-12 in the NL. As a catcher, that would rank him in the top 3 or 4. For comparison's sake, Jason Kendall's career OPS is .807, and he hasn't been significantly above that since 1999.

Phillips is a catcher, and he should play there half the time once Piazza passes Fisk. Either way, having Piazza behind the plate gives the Mets a first basemen's bat at the catcher position, so they can certainly afford a catcher's bat at first base, especially at 3% of the cost of Jason Kendall.

Now Phillips may not be as good as Jason Kendall. I'd guess he's a little bit worse, myself. But he could be, and it behooves the Mets to find out.

Ty Wigginton, on the other hand, should sit as you suggested, for. His minor league numbers indicate virtually no chance to be an effective major league player, while the Mets do have a prospect behind him (David Wright) and a replacement (Todd Zeile) who is a better player.

There's a third reason to give Phillips more time: He's looked better lately. He's been hitting the ball hard, but into some bad luck. Luck changes. In fact, maybe tonight's 2 for 3 marks the turning point. Oh, and you do realize that "Whiffy McStrikeout" still has a .350ish OBP and leads the team in HRs, right?

Cammy is far from useless at the plate. I'll take a .350 OBP, 20+ homeruns, and a gold glove in centerfield any day of the week. He does strike out an awful lot, though.