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Seo #$%^ What?

If you believe everything you read, this article on Mets.com would lead you to believe Jae Seo has been pitching well over the last month or so.

Jae Seo has pitched very well in July, yet has only a loss and three no-decisions to show for his efforts.

[...]

Once a question mark in the back of the rotation, Seo has solidified his standing, pitching to a 3.65 ERA in 24 2/3 July innings. Though he's still struggling to go deeper into games, he's been very effective in the six or seven innings he does give the Mets.

Here's what Seo has done by month in 2004:

       IP     H  HR  BB  SO   ERA
APRIL  21.1  24   3   7   9  5.06
MAY    20.1  21   2  12   6  4.87
JUNE   26.0  29   5   7  18  4.85
JULY   24.2  29   5   9  10  3.65

Has he really gotten any better? Sure, the ERA has gone down every month since April, but he's been pitching pretty shabbily all year. He's been very hittable, and has been more prone to giving up homeruns as the year has worn on. His control, which was his trademark during a very impressive rookie year in 2003, has eluded him completely this season.

Last year, Seo only walked 2.2 batters per nine innings. This year it's ballooned to 3.4. He's also striking out fewer and allowing more homeruns, key ingredients in determining a pitcher's true and future performance. Sure enough, his DIPS ERA of 5.46 is 19% higher than his actual ERA of 4.58.

Seo has likely been fortunate to stick around as long as he has this season. With Matt Ginter falling off a cliff and Scott Erickson pitching like the Erickson of old (i.e. crappy), Seo might have been the lesser of a number of evils.

He stands a good chance at perpetuating the notion that he's been "effective" of late, as he squares off against the Expos, far and away the lowest scoring team in all of baseball. They've been hitting better of late, but as the line from the great baseball movie goes, "They're still shitty."