derisively-intellectual mets chatter

September 19, 2004

A Hole In Right Field


When the Mets acquired Richard Hidalgo from the Houston Astros on June 17th for David Weathers and Jeremy Griffiths, it was seen as a very low-risk, high-reward move for General Manager Jim Duquette. Hidalgo was having a miserable season to that point, hitting .256/.309/.412 (AVG/OBP/SLG) in a part-time role with the 'Stros.

Hidalgo, something of a streaky hitter for much of his career, rode a hot streak for the next six weeks, hitting 13 homeruns in his first 37 games as a Met. He hit .294/.379/.637 in July, and the trade looked like a steal. Through the end of July, he had done this:

Astros: .256/.309/.412 (.156 ISO)
Mets: .288/354/.630 (.242 ISO)

Fast-forward seven weeks, and things look a bit different:

Astros: .256/.309/.412 (.156 ISO)
Mets: .243/.310/.493 (.250 ISO)

His isolated power (SLG - AVG) is still way up, but he's actually hitting less overall, and is getting on base at around the same frequency. He only has 23 unintentional walks in 300 at-bats with the Mets, which is not very good.

Part of what makes Hidalgo so appealing to Mets fans is that, despite his shabby OBP, he presents a significant upgrade offensively over everybody the Mets have trotted out to right field. The last ten years break down as follows (listed is the player who spent the most time in right field that season):

1994: Joe Orsulak .651 OPS (70 OPS+)
1995: Carl Everett .788 OPS (107 OPS+)
1996: Alex Ochoa .761 OPS (106 OPS+)
1997: Alex Ochoa .649 OPS (73 OPS+)
1998: Butch Huskey .707 OPS (85 OPS+)
1999: Roger Cedeno .804 OPS (109 OPS+)
2000: Derek Bell .773 OPS (101 OPS+)
2001: Timo Perez .643 OPS (70 OPS+)
2002: Jeromy Burnitz .677 OPS (83 OPS+)
2003: Roger Cedeno .698 OPS (82 OPS+)

Hidalgo's current .803 OPS would be second-best among this group (1 point behind Cedeno's '99 campaign), but still not that great for a right fielder. It would currently rank him 11th (out of 16) among National League right fielders with at least 300 plate appearances. His overall OPS of .768 is 13th out of 16.

Of course, offense doesn't paint a complete picture. Hidalgo was also acquired to shore up the Mets outfield defense, and he's certainly appeared to have done a solid job out there. He's fifth among National League right-fielders with 252 putouts:

                 INN    PO  Team GB/FB
Brian Giles     1276.0  300    1.26
Bobby Abreu     1287.2  292    1.19
J.D. Drew       1121.0  264    1.31
Danny Bautista  1118.1  254    1.26
Richard Hidalgo 1137.1  252    1.14

J.D. Drew is having the best offensive season among these right fielders, and based on putouts has actually done a good job chasing down flyballs. Of course, the table above doesn't account for discrepancies in innings played. The following table extrapolates the above stats to 1300 innings played to give a more comparable picture of putouts:

                 INN    PO  Team GB/FB
Brian Giles     1300.0  306    1.26
J.D. Drew       1300.0  306    1.31
Bobby Abreu     1300.0  295    1.19
Danny Bautista  1300.0  295    1.26
Richard Hidalgo 1300.0  288    1.14

That's a bit clearer, isn't it? Hidalgo still comes in fifth, but Bobby Abreu and Drew have flipped. We're not done yet, however. A pitching staff's propensity for giving up flyballs would certainly give an outfielder more chances for putouts. The National League groundball/flyball ratio is 1.25, and the following table shows the same five right fielders, adjusted to 1300 innings played, and further adjusted to the league GB/FB ratio:

                 INN    PO  Team GB/FB
J.D. Drew       1300.0  320    1.25
Brian Giles     1300.0  308    1.25
Danny Bautista  1300.0  297    1.25
Bobby Abreu     1300.0  280    1.25
Richard Hidalgo 1300.0  258    1.25

Hidalgo's efforts take a hit, here, but this still doesn't tell the whole story. I gave Hidalgo credit for the Mets' 1.14 GB/FB ratio, even though a portion of his putouts came as a member of the Astros, whose ratio is even more pronounced at 1.05.

I didn't go beyond the overall top-five, though there is a good chance that additional players would have performed better than Hidalgo given the above adjustments. This analysis is based on a single stat, though putouts is generally a good measure of an outfielder's range. This is by no means an all-encompasing study, but should serve to give a general idea of Hidalgo's defensive contribution compared to other right fielders.

Of particular interest is Drew, who is a free agent after the season and whose agent, Scott Boras, has a propensity for selling his clients to the highest bidder. Drew's talents have never been questioned, though his durability certainly has come under fire. His advocates have always insisted that, given a full, healthy season, Drew would put up remarkable numbers.

Well, he's been healthy all year, and has been the best hitter on the first-place Braves. His .314/.440/.586 line is certainly drool-worthy, as are his .272 ISO and his .126 isolated discipline (OBP - AVG). He has 108 walks to 107 strikeouts, and is even 12-for-14 in stolen bases. Did I mention that he's only 28? The Mets owe Hidalgo a $2 million buyout for next season, which I think they should jump at. They should then jump at J.D. Drew.

Either that or wait until 2006 when Lance Berkman hits free agency.


Comments

Bringing Hidalgo back should be the absolute last resort. However, Drew's injury history kind of scares me and I think the Braves are going to make every effort to retain him. I just think they are going to have to open up their wallets sometime. The may try to spin of Andruw Jones since he has kind of fallen out of favor in an effort to free up some cash. I just wish Magglio's knee was not screwed up.

Posted by: Mike - September 20, 2004 at 09:47 AM EST

the mets priorities should be:
1. remove our "1B/C" (DH) to free up salary room and get some young talent.
2. move our 4-5 inning starting stud senator to the Bronx or Boston for prospects + salary room
3. move TG to Boston for prospects + salary room
4. send "Johnny F" bye bye - anywhere at any cost
5. sign Hidalgo at a reasonable cost

Posted by: andy glashier - September 20, 2004 at 10:57 AM EST

Injury history always scares me, particularly with the Mets seeming inability to keep players healthy. The Braves have reportedly been trying to move Andruw Jones for some time, but they'll have a tough time finding a taker for the $25 million he's owed over the next two years.

I like Magglio, too, but he turns 31 in January, he doesn't walk that much, he'd be going from a hitters park to a pitchers park, and he's not as solid defensively as Hidalgo or Drew (though admittedly much better offensively than Hidalgo).

Posted by: Eric Simon - September 20, 2004 at 11:10 AM EST

the last thing the mets need is another streaky hitter like hidalgo. like cameron, he will win you a couple of games when hes hot. but they both cost you just as much when they are cold. even if drew is hurt for 1/4 of a season he would help more than hidalgo. id stay away from ordonez and try for sexson. dump piazza, glavine, leiter, franco. heck, maybe heilman can step in for them, has he finally turned the corner(last 2 starts)? this team needs to get younger and have hitters that hit for a decent average too.

Posted by: Stumped1 - September 20, 2004 at 11:15 AM EST

Andy -

1. Mike Piazza will bring back neither salary room nor young talent in a trade. He's far too expensive for any team to take, and his talents have regressed considerably in the past four seasons. The Mets best bet is to have him play catcher next season and to bring in a big bat at first (Carlos Delgado or Richie Sexson come to mind).

2. Al Leiter has a team option for next year at $10, so if the Mets don't want him they don't have to trade him, they can just let him walk. My guess is they will buy out his option and sign him to a one-year deal at significantly less than $10 million.

3. If you haven't noticed, Boston doesn't have a habit of picking up crummy players who are making way too much money. Again, even if you could find someone to take him, you would never get prospects AND salary room. In today's baseball economy, you can sometimes get one or the other, and sometimes neither, particularly for an old pitcher who can no longer pitch.

4. John Franco is only signed through this year, and we can only hope the Mets have seen enough of him pitching. I could see them making him the full-time bullpen coach provided no other team wants to sign him to actually play baseball.

5. I just don't feel Hidalgo is good enough offensively to justify making him a full-time right fielder. He goes through long stretches where he doesn't hit a lick, and his lack of plate discipline means that even when he's slumping he's not helping the team out by drawing walks. If they can't sign J.D. Drew, Magglio Ordonez, or a long-shot Carlos Beltran, I would just assume give Victor Diaz a shot out there in 2005.

Posted by: Eric Simon - September 20, 2004 at 11:19 AM EST

Good stuff, Eric.

I think you're onto something re: injury history, too. Going to probably give it a few words soon.

Posted by: ECA Mike - September 20, 2004 at 03:20 PM EST

Definitely agree. The Mets need to let Richard Hidalgo go and try to replace him with Drew. However, its not as simple as that. Two questions arise from that decision:

1. How much would you offer Drew? He's a great talent no doubt, but given the injury concerns there is no way the Mets should offer 10+ million a year for a player that will probably miss 20 games a year. Moreover, since he is an injury concern, it'd be complete idiocy to give him more than a 3 year contract. With that in mind, I'm thinking 3 years/36 million with an option for a fourth year at 9 million is the way to go. Agree or disagree?

2. A Drew and Floyd would be awesome, but unfortunately the chances of both being healthy all year long are pretty slim. If the Mets acquired Drew, what would you do with Floyd? Again, if it were up to me, I'd try trading Floyd for salary relief and give the Valent/Diaz platoon a chance. If no teams are willing to do this, I'd probably keep Floyd, hope he gets hot, and trade him at the trading deadline.

Posted by: OFF - September 20, 2004 at 03:25 PM EST

OFF -

1. I'm a bit confused -- "...there is no way the Mets should offer 10+ million a year..." and "... I'm thinking 3 years/36 million..." seem to disagree with each other. You probably meant 3 years/26 million, which makes a lot more sense, and I think is pretty fair. His injuries are definitely a concern, but his 1000+ OPS make me feel a lot better.

2. If Drew and Cliff Floyd could somehow both stay healthy for a whole season, they would make a fantastic combo. That said, I would have no problem trading Floyd and using Eric Valent and Victor Diaz in his stead. Valent has an .823 OPS playing sparingly, and has walked 24 times in 239 at-bats, which is certainly respectable.

All of this assumes the acquisition of Drew, which is anything but a forgone conclusion.

Posted by: Eric Simon - September 20, 2004 at 04:40 PM EST

The list of Mets right fielders from the last ten years is downright sad, and while Drew and even Hidalgo are significant upgrades over the Orsulaks, Cedenos, and Timos of the world, I'd still like to see the Mets try something new. We already have Cameron, and we might be able to get a relief pitcher or something for Floyd, so let's flank Cameron with Diaz and another promising prospect: Eric Valent.

Sure Valent is 27, but he has power, and enthusiasm, and he could blossom into a serious power threat (consider his pedigree) if given the opportunity, something he has never been given. He gives the Mets a lefthander who hit 12 hr's, 33 RBI's, .268/.333/.490 in just 239 AB's in his first year of being a regular part-timer. Pairing Diaz and valent still fits the idea of getting younger and more athletic, and Valent's defense has been solid wherever he has been put.

Posted by: Tom - September 20, 2004 at 05:15 PM EST

Guys, given that Scott Boras is Drew's agent, I think that the chance that Drew will accept a contract which is not in line with Boras' typically inflated sense of Drew's worth is remote. Getting Drew is a pipe dream.

I agree that we need an upgrade in RF and would like to see if we can obtain Ordonez before going to a Diaz/Valent platoon. But if Ordonez is too pricy, I'd feel comfortable at least giving the platoon a chance.

I guess I have a little different view as to the priorities. I agree with RF, but I think that the 1B "hole" is best filled with a "character guy," i.e. someone with a good lockerroom skills and a winning pedigree, who (first and foremost)is a good defensive player. Next year we will have an infield of 3B Wright, SS Reyes and 2B Matsui, substantially improving the infield defense. But it would all go to waste if we got a substandard defensive 1B simply to be a bat. So no Carlos Delgado for me. Why not a J.T. Snow, Erstad or even Tino for a year or two?

As for Cliff Floyd, with all of his gifts, he appears to be a malcontent with a history of injuries. Given his recent comments about retirement and "no light atthe end of the tunnel," I'd be looking to deal him and try to use that money for someone else we can count on for 150 - 160 games.

Posted by: Victor - September 20, 2004 at 05:35 PM EST

Continuing to buy overpriced washed up or unreliable players and ignoring player development is what created this mess.

Where are Mo Vaughn, Roberto Alomar, etc. now? Doesn't it look like the fiasco when Saberhagen and Bonilla were brought in?

The players at the heart of the Yankee dynasty were homegrown, Jeter, Williams, Posada, Rivera, Petite. Other than David Wright ( a certified star in the making) who is in the minors???

Look at Norfolk and Tidewater and tell me who can play in Shea anytime soon? Bite the bullet and don't make more stupid Steve Phillips like moves!!!!

Posted by: VaDad - September 20, 2004 at 05:56 PM EST

I could see bringing Tino in, but only if we could significantly upgrade right field offensively. Despite perceived contract demands, J.D. Drew is simply a better player, offensively and defensively, than Magglio Ordonez, besides the fact that they would probably be looking at similar salaries. He's also two years younger than Ordonez.

I wouldn't touch Darin Erstad with a ten-foot pole, as he makes way too much money and is an offensive wasteland. J.T. Snow is having a monster year offensively, but I wouldn't count on him keeping that up. UZR actually ranks him lower defensively than Carlos Delgado, and we know what Delgado can do with the stick.

I would try to move Cliff Floyd, but I wouldn't simply give him away. He makes ~$7 million, and may be worth that if he stays healthy enough to play 130 games next season.

I would have no problem signing Tino Martinez to provide sparkling defense and okay offense provided they also get a Drew-type bat for the outfield. Without a power bat out there this offense simply won't be good enough to compete.

Posted by: Eric Simon - September 20, 2004 at 05:57 PM EST

Errr... yeah I meant, 3yr/27mil. In fact, I think so much of Drew's talent, that I'd offer some clauses that would push his salary to 11 million per if he reaches enough ABs. Unfortunately, I really don't see it happening. The Mets are too risk-averse to sign Drew. Assuming that they won't even consider Drew [which is almost certain], who do you think they should go after? Since the Mets' season is pretty much over, I've been watching the Blue Jays and Delgado a lot, and I really would like to have him batting fourth next year. Obviously, there are some big questions about him, but to me he is without a question the best hitter available. If healthy [and he has been since the All Star break], he is everything the Mets need: Average, Power, and Patience. Check out this lineup:

1. Reyes ss [Needs to walk more. A lot more]
2. Matsui 2b
3. Wright 3b [Miguel Cabrera redux]
4. Delgado 1b
5. Piazza C
6. Floyd lf
7. Hidalgo rf [2 yr/12 million]
8. Cameron cf

Maybe I'm victim of optimism, but that looks like a good, if not great lineup, especially when you consider the possibility of Reyes, Cameron, Wright, Hidalgo and Matsui being plus defenders at their respective positions.

Posted by: OFF - September 20, 2004 at 08:56 PM EST

BTW, I agree about not giving Floyd away. He's not great, and his injuries and defense take a lot away from his value, but the man can hit. The problem the Mets have had is that they counted on Floyd to carry the offense instead of just letting be what he is- a GREAT complementary hitter. Bat him 6th, and maybe platoon him with a RH hitter [Floyd's OPS against righties this year is a pretty solid 886], and you could reasonably expect above average [if not superstar esque] production from LF at a reasonable price.

Posted by: OFF - September 20, 2004 at 09:06 PM EST

I certainly think you're on the right track, OFF. I could see retaining Hidalgo at a reasonable price for his defense and pop if the Mets get a big bat at first. Likewise, signing a Tino Martinez-type for first and a big bat for right-field would work. I also agree that letting someone like Victor Diaz bat against lefties to spell Cliff Floyd is a great idea. It will give Floyd more time off to rest during the season, and will let Diaz get some at-bats once-a-week or so.

Posted by: Eric Simon - September 21, 2004 at 10:21 AM EST

Eric, I agree that bringing in someone like Tino (or any defensive-mided 1B) requires a serious upgrade in RF. But I find it hard to believe that Scott Boras will allow Drew (and that's what happens with Boras-agented players) to sign any contract for less than whatever Boras thinks Drew deserves on the basis of this fantastic year alone (and projections from prior years as to how those stats would have looked over 162 games). Simply, the Mets shouldn't overpay to bring in a person with a questionable injury history who had a great (and relatively injury-free) season in his walk year.

As for Ordonez, sure he's older and finally had an injury of his own to deal with, but I'm not sure that his demands will be as great as Drew's. If he can gotten at a more reasonable rate than Drew, then go get him. (Of course, if I'm wrong and the contract demands are roughly equivalent in length (3 yrs?) and reasonable money ($7-$8 mil?), Drew obviously is preferable because of his age.)

As for Floyd, I don't advocate giving him away, as the Mets are wont to do when they have tired of a player, but I do think that, if he doesn't want to be in the clubhouse, I'd rather have a guy who wants to be there and can be counted on for 150 games, instead of 120 - 130. He would be a valuable trade piece, especially to an AL team.

Posted by: Victor - September 21, 2004 at 02:44 PM EST

I agree that bringing Hidalgo back should be a last resort. Frankly, I've had about enough of him. The guy simply can't hit.

One big reason why we've no idea whose gonna be in RF next season is nobody really knows for sure what we've got in Vic Diaz. Can he be as productive as Hidalgo has been?

His numbers indicate that he very well could be, but until the kid gets a chance to prove himself who the hell knows?

Guess who's playing in RF again tonight? Hidalgo for Christ's sake. Guess who's playing at 1B? F---ing Piazza! No Brazell or Diaz anywhere in sight. Guess the Mets are starting to get serious now that there's a chance they may return to their familiar place in the CELLAR of the NL East. They want all their "big guns"--all their "proven veterans"--in the starting lineup.

What I'd like to know is who's responsible for this?

Posted by: Chris - September 21, 2004 at 08:10 PM EST

Chris -

You're right. Eric Valent and Victor Diaz should be allowed to share time in the outfield, particularly now that Cliff Floyd is going to miss some time. Jason Phillips has no business starting at catcher OR first base, ever. He simply can't hit a lick and isn't very good defensively at either position. Piazza should be catching the Mets should see if Craig Brazell has any idea how to hit Major League pitching.

Posted by: Eric Simon - September 21, 2004 at 09:03 PM EST

Thanks, but who's making the decisions now about which players start and which don't and how much playing time players get?

Howe has agreed to stay on as manager until the end of the season, but I can't believe that he's really running the show in the clubhouse. Don't tell me he hasn't received a slew of mandates about who to play where and when. If so, somebody besides Howe is making these blunders. They certainly appear to be blunders, don't they? I mean, how do you evaluate a player based such a small sample of ABs/fielding chances.

Maybe the truth is that Brazell and Diaz aren't being seriously considered for any job other than the one they're playing now--sitting on the bench.

Posted by: Chris - September 21, 2004 at 09:30 PM EST

From what I've read, the Mets intend to have both Diaz and Brazell at the ML level next season. Whether that actually happens is something entirely different.

My feeling is that Howe IS making the lineup decisions, though it wouldn't surprise me to find out otherwise. A big problem is that I lack the faith in Howe or anyone else in the Mets organization to give the right guys playing time. Who's running the show? Does it matter? They've all proven to be utterly incompetent in virtually every conceivable way.

Posted by: Eric Simon - September 21, 2004 at 09:50 PM EST

I'm not fond of bringing back Leiter, of course, and since there's a team option there's no need to seek a trade. I think he'll re-sign after being bought out, but one thing I've wondered ever since his name popped up in trade talks: why would the Yanks or Sox so desperately want him? He's a lefty, sure, but he'll still only go five innings whether he's with the Mets or not, and good teams such as the Yanks and Sox don't need to buy five-inning lefty starters just to "beat" the other team in some crazy offseason deal. If I'm the Yanks, Sox OR Mets, I stay away, but, knowing the Wilpons and the relationship they have with Leiter, I don't think any kind of analysis could keep us from the inevitable: one more year of Leiter.

And, even more scary, when Leiter starts talking about "one more year" NEXT August, we'll all be saying the same things then, too. Although he may be down to four innings by this time next year...

Posted by: Damien - September 21, 2004 at 11:55 PM EST

You're right, Damien. Al Leiter has definitely outgrown his usefulness to this (or any) team. He's been the luckiest pitcher in the Major Leagues this season according to DIPS, and his five inning, 100-pitch outings tax the bullpen to no end.

Posted by: Eric Simon - September 22, 2004 at 09:22 AM EST

You guys are all waaaaaay too optimistic for me. This team needs to completely rebuild and this time it should be taken seriously. Short of getting rid of the owner and GM - which just isn't going to happen - we need to drop Leiter, Franco, Glavine, Piazza, Floyd and Stanton, even if we don't get anything back....just get rid of the malcontents already. Eat the salaries of those under contract and get back a prospect, or move 'em to clear up $$ and forget about prospects.

We then need to avoid free agents and accept last place for a couple of seasons, rather than our current technique of ending up in last place after pretending to be something we're not.

Face it, this franchise is a complete disaster, and no signing of J.D. Drew or Carlos Delgado is going to fix that. Truth is what we really need is for Montreal to move to Brooklyn so we can all drop this shitbag team known as the Mets.

Folks, it's a long way back to respectability. Help us Billy Beane, you're our only hope.......

Posted by: jc - September 22, 2004 at 11:42 PM EST

Sorry to all you "sell the Mets" people out there. I completely understand your anger and frustration. It's justified, but the Wilpons aren't going anywhere--at least not in the forseeable future.

I have no problem with rebuilding the team, but every team needs a few veterans. Of the regular position players, my picks are Cameron, Piazza, a solid 1B and maybe Cliff Floyd.

Why is Piazza a "malcontent"? The guy has been pretty understanding if you ask me. He may not be a team leader, but he's no "malcontent." Can't say the same for Glavine, Franco or Stanton, but I don't believe for a second that ALL the veterans on this team are poison.

Posted by: Chris - September 24, 2004 at 12:59 AM EST

True, I'm being unfair in labeling him a malcontent. He didn't handle the move to 1st base with much class, but really that was more the fault of the team than him. Otherwise, he's been a stand-up guy throughout his Met career. I want to move him because frankly, he just isn't very good anymore. The rest of the veterans I mentioned need to be escorted out of the building by security.

As do the Wilpons, who I could envision selling the team in 3-5 years, providing their current inability to rebuild remains intact. The lack of fan support and the fact that the city isn't going to help pay for a new stadium could lead to their departure....couldn't it??? Am I being too optimistic? Probably.

You know your baseball team is atrocious when the only optimisim you have is regarding how long it will take for the owner to give up and sell. :)

Posted by: JC - September 25, 2004 at 10:14 AM EST

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