A Hole In Right Field
When the Mets acquired
Richard Hidalgo from the Houston Astros on June 17th for
David Weathers and
Jeremy Griffiths, it was seen as a very low-risk, high-reward move for General Manager
Jim Duquette. Hidalgo was having a miserable season to that point, hitting .256/.309/.412 (AVG/OBP/SLG) in a part-time role with the 'Stros.
Hidalgo, something of a streaky hitter for much of his career, rode a hot streak for the next six weeks, hitting 13 homeruns in his first 37 games as a Met. He hit .294/.379/.637 in July, and the trade looked like a steal. Through the end of July, he had done this:
Astros: .256/.309/.412 (.156 ISO)
Mets: .288/354/.630 (.242 ISO)
Fast-forward seven weeks, and things look a bit different:
Astros: .256/.309/.412 (.156 ISO)
Mets: .243/.310/.493 (.250 ISO)
His isolated power (SLG - AVG) is still way up, but he's actually hitting less overall, and is getting on base at around the same frequency. He only has 23 unintentional walks in 300 at-bats with the Mets, which is not very good.
Part of what makes Hidalgo so appealing to Mets fans is that, despite his shabby OBP, he presents a significant upgrade offensively over everybody the Mets have trotted out to right field. The last ten years break down as follows (listed is the player who spent the most time in right field that season):
1994: Joe Orsulak .651 OPS (70 OPS+)
1995: Carl Everett .788 OPS (107 OPS+)
1996: Alex Ochoa .761 OPS (106 OPS+)
1997: Alex Ochoa .649 OPS (73 OPS+)
1998: Butch Huskey .707 OPS (85 OPS+)
1999: Roger Cedeno .804 OPS (109 OPS+)
2000: Derek Bell .773 OPS (101 OPS+)
2001: Timo Perez .643 OPS (70 OPS+)
2002: Jeromy Burnitz .677 OPS (83 OPS+)
2003: Roger Cedeno .698 OPS (82 OPS+)
Hidalgo's current .803 OPS would be second-best among this group (1 point behind Cedeno's '99 campaign), but still not that great for a right fielder. It would currently rank him 11th (out of 16) among National League right fielders with at least 300 plate appearances. His overall OPS of .768 is 13th out of 16.
Of course, offense doesn't paint a complete picture. Hidalgo was also acquired to shore up the Mets outfield defense, and he's certainly appeared to have done a solid job out there. He's fifth among National League right-fielders with 252 putouts:
INN PO Team GB/FB
Brian Giles 1276.0 300 1.26
Bobby Abreu 1287.2 292 1.19
J.D. Drew 1121.0 264 1.31
Danny Bautista 1118.1 254 1.26
Richard Hidalgo 1137.1 252 1.14
J.D. Drew is having the best offensive season among these right fielders, and based on putouts has actually done a good job chasing down flyballs. Of course, the table above doesn't account for discrepancies in innings played. The following table extrapolates the above stats to 1300 innings played to give a more comparable picture of putouts:
INN PO Team GB/FB
Brian Giles 1300.0 306 1.26
J.D. Drew 1300.0 306 1.31
Bobby Abreu 1300.0 295 1.19
Danny Bautista 1300.0 295 1.26
Richard Hidalgo 1300.0 288 1.14
That's a bit clearer, isn't it? Hidalgo still comes in fifth, but
Bobby Abreu and Drew have flipped. We're not done yet, however. A pitching staff's propensity for giving up flyballs would certainly give an outfielder more chances for putouts. The National League groundball/flyball ratio is 1.25, and the following table shows the same five right fielders, adjusted to 1300 innings played, and further adjusted to the league GB/FB ratio:
INN PO Team GB/FB
J.D. Drew 1300.0 320 1.25
Brian Giles 1300.0 308 1.25
Danny Bautista 1300.0 297 1.25
Bobby Abreu 1300.0 280 1.25
Richard Hidalgo 1300.0 258 1.25
Hidalgo's efforts take a hit, here, but this still doesn't tell the whole story. I gave Hidalgo credit for the Mets' 1.14 GB/FB ratio, even though a portion of his putouts came as a member of the Astros, whose ratio is even more pronounced at 1.05.
I didn't go beyond the overall top-five, though there is a good chance that additional players would have performed better than Hidalgo given the above adjustments. This analysis is based on a single stat, though putouts is generally a good measure of an outfielder's range. This is by no means an all-encompasing study, but should serve to give a general idea of Hidalgo's defensive contribution compared to other right fielders.
Of particular interest is Drew, who is a free agent after the season and whose agent, Scott Boras, has a propensity for selling his clients to the highest bidder. Drew's talents have never been questioned, though his durability certainly has come under fire. His advocates have always insisted that, given a full, healthy season, Drew would put up remarkable numbers.
Well, he's been healthy all year, and has been the best hitter on the first-place Braves. His .314/.440/.586 line is certainly drool-worthy, as are his .272 ISO and his .126 isolated discipline (OBP - AVG). He has 108 walks to 107 strikeouts, and is even 12-for-14 in stolen bases. Did I mention that he's only 28? The Mets owe Hidalgo a $2 million buyout for next season, which I think they should jump at. They should then jump at J.D. Drew.
Either that or wait until 2006 when
Lance Berkman hits free agency.