SaberMets.com

i'm always reminded of the late ralph wiley's line, "the paper comes out every day," when i read stuff like this. the series is over. the hot stove doesn't heat up until next month... you get the point. i'm not putting much stock in sosa rumors since minaya's history, as far as i know, does not include any prior bouts of complete insanity.

manny ramirez is less insane as a plan B. it's not a smart plan B, just not complete insanity under the right conditions. namely, if boston gets hot and heavy for beltran, and consequently is willing to eat some -- try a LOT -- of manny's contract, we *might* have something to talk about. of course theo epstein has no prior history of insanity either. so hopefully this rumor will soon be put to rest.

Trading Reyes for Soriano is outside the box thinking? I hope they get back in that damn box then. Am I the only one who can envision them doing that trade and then Soriano demanding to play secondbase so that we have to move Matsui back to shortstop? just kidding, hopefully

According to the "article", the Mets would NOT trade Reyes for Soriano because of Soriano's salary.

Do what I do. Just pretend that you did not read the articles. Unreal, you cannot make that stuff up. I have no problems with Manny, but he is after the Mets fail to land Magglio, Beltran, or Drew. If and only if they cannot get a slugger in for of those three or even Sexson should they consider Manny. What I cannot comprehend is if they are willing to spend 20mill on Manny, who not throw that 20m per year at Beltran. If you are willing to spend that much on one player, do it right. I by no means think they should spend 20M on a player, but if they are, do it right.

Duh, thinking "outside-the-box" means paying a lot of money for really famous players with declining skills. Never before have the Mets tried such a strategy. With all the other teams in the major leagues trying to corner the market on young, talented, afforable players, the Mets will have this market all to themselves. In addition, such old declining players will fit right in with dried out, bagged out, slunk meat like Tom Glavine and Al Leiter.

In other "outside-the-box" moves, the Mets will be resigning Johnny "Two Thumbs" Franco, picking up Richard Hidalgo's option and smearing every seat at Shea Staduim with feces.

So 'Outside the Box' thinking is trading for overpaid, aging, suspected cheating OF who's numbers are falling?!

'Outside the box' thinking: if they picked up Manny on waivers LAST year. Now that he won WSMVP they want him! Well then 29 other teams are outside the box and there's noone inside!

Man, I'm absolutely with you on this one. How can they make things even worse than they are?

Calvin Pickering was once a top prospect of the Baltimore Orioles before injuries derailed his ascension to Major League stardom. When he’s been healthy, however, Pickering has done nothing but hit in the majors and minors and brings tremendous. Here’s a rundown of Pickering’s key stats that jump out at me:

Lifetime numbers in the Majors (with Balt., Boston, Cinci, and KC): 123 games, 359 at bats, 20 homers, 18 doubles, 58 walks, 119 strikeouts, .340 OBP, .465 SLG, .228 ISO, .237 batting avg.

For the Omaha Royals in 2004: 89 games played, 299 at bats, 35 homers, 12 doubles, 70 walks, 85 strikeouts, .451 OBP, .712 SLG, .398 ISO, .314 batting avg.

Comparing 2004 winshares, Pickering 4 in 35 games. Sosa 14 in 126 games.

2002 and 2003 were essentially lost years for Pickering due to injury, but before that, Pickering put up solid 20 and 30 homerun years in the minors with OBP in the .330s. He strikes me as an over the hill prospect whose lost his chance and won’t get one again anytime soon. He’s lost on the KC bench- 3rd string 1b behind Mike Sweeney and Ken Harvey. But, he is 6’5” and 270 lbs. and all power. But unlike many pure power hitters, he has shown patience at the plate (lifetime majors OBP of .340).

If the Mets are indeed looking for a bat and not trying to blow up their payroll, Calvin Pickering might be a nice, cheap alternative to Sammy Sosa. Sosa is scheduled to earn roughly $17 mill next season and $35 mill over the next 2 years guaranteed, which would utterly stifle the Mets payroll until 2007. Pickering plays for roughly $300k.

I could see picking up Pickering if the Mets needed a designated hitter, though he might have some use as a pinch hitter coming off the bench. He has very good peripheral offensive numbers, but he has no running speed and has zero range at first base. The Mets have no use for him as a full-time first baseman.

That said, he would be a great bat off the bench to be paid the league minimum.

just a thought on comparing winshares and salaries in the 2004 season for 1b free agents:

free agents:
========================
sosa: 14 WS($17 mill)
carlos delgado: 17 WS ($19.7 mill)
richie sexson: 3 WS (90 ABs) ($8.75 mill)
jt snow: 20 WS ($1.5 mill)
calvin pickering: 4 WS (Sept. callup) (MLB minimum)
* not actually a free agent, but could easily be acquired for low level talent in exchange

current mets:
eric valent: 6 WS (mlb minimum)
jason phillips: 5 WS (mlb minimum)
cliff floyd: 14 WS ($6.5 mill)
mike piazza: 12 WS ($16 mill)

strikes me that $20 mill for sammy would be a horrible investment (even if the cubs eat floyd and pay part of sammy's salary). Sammy and Floyd have the same aggregate # of winshares in 2004 (14) and don't project too differently for '05... at which point Floyd's contract finally expires, while Sammy is signed through '06.

the combo of valent/phillips/pickering could produce similar net winshares to sammy or delgado over a season and jt snow produced 6 more net winshares than the former cubbie star at 1/10th the contract price and 3 more net winshares than even delgado.

all this being said, i know winshares are not a good predictor of future succes, but are a good metric for past performance.

I agree, Eric -- Pickering doesn't quite make sense for the Mets. They wouldn't be giving him first or an outfield slot, and I think he's wasted as an occasional PH. Would be good for an AL team looking for a DH on the cheap.

My thoughts on Sosa are here -

http://eastcoastagony.weblogs.us/archives/021149.html

My conclusion is that the Cubs would have to throw an absurd, impossible amount of money our way to make it worthwhile. I'm not putting too much credence in the rumor myself, but it doesn't hurt too mull it over.

My comments on this are up on AA but my day today has just been a nightmare because of that article.

I feel like it's July 30th all over again, I hear the Kazmir rumor, dismiss it thinking "Ah, they'll never do something that stupid." and then, before you know it, BAM! It's done, can't be undone.

I'm so angry and depressed. It's SSDD. If Reyes isn't the starting shortstop on opening day next year (for any reason other than injury), I swear I'll boycott Shea. Seriously.

I'm with you, Jay. Black Friday made _anything_ possible.

I'm supposed to act suprised, right?

All three rumors are just that....rumors started by a press core that needs to sell papers. As for reality:

Manny: No way do the Red Sox trade the MVP of their 86 year curse busting world series title.

Reyes: Omar will not trade Reyes for anyone not named Hudson, or Johan Santana. The former is a joke, the later is nore serious. The Twins will lose their SS, and very likely will lose Santana next year as an FA. They would love a guy like Reyes, who could step in for Guzman, and be locked up on the cheap for several years.

Sosa: Scary, but if the Mets can get the Cubs to eat a good portion of his deal I could see Omar doing this. Do I want it no happen...well let me use to letters to describe my feelings....NO.
I could ammend that to NO WAY ON HELL, but that would be piling on.

Yeah, if the Cubs eat $19MM of the $20MM it might make some sense. If Sammy comes, why not give Mo another shot.

Would it be *completely* out of the question to bring in someone under 30? Or am I nuts for even proposing it?
A thought-- Cleveland's got a logjam at 1B/DH with Hafner, Broussard, and Phelps, and Mike Aubrey coming up quickly. Any of the three would probably outhit any free agent 1B out there, save Sexson.

obviously, you mean phelps, who can't field, or broussard. hafner ain't going anywhere. honestly, all talk of these veterans makes me feel sick. can we please, please rebuild. if brazell or valent play first next year, i don't mind. our lineup especially sucked this year because matsui, reyes, piazza all were DL'd simultaneously in July and August, crucial time to have the team together.

since we ARE rebuilding and will not consistently be good for a few years, all Sosa's, Delgado's, even Magglio's, should be left out of the conversation. We are NOT a win now team - we come in last or second to last and finish under .500 every year.