SaberMets.com

Mike Cameron is the man. If the Mets had 8 more guys with his personality they would contend every year. The man played an excellent center field (Not as good as I would have thought before the year, but still..) hit 30+ HRs in Shea, stole close to 30 bases and was a player the fans could get close to. Move the man to right, and bring in Beltran. We would have one of the best outfield defense even if my grandmother played left, and the offense would be powerful. Think about it 4 guys with 30+ stolen base potenial (Reyes, Matsui, Cameron & Beltran)...when was the last time the Mets had that kind of speed? It is now a no brainer...go get Beltran.

how do you NOT love a guy like cammie?

nonetheless, dare we even dream about carlos beltran? even if he can resist red sox/yankee money why not just re-up with houston? they'll be *adding* adam everett and andy petite even if they make no other offseason moves. he'd be the clear star on that club, but with enough around him to feel good about another playoff run.

with the mets he could be a-rod in texas, the leader of a team with just enough talent to fade in late july/early august. like a-rod his contract would a major impediment to the team getting any better.

I believe the Mets are nothing like Texas. The Mets unlike the Rangers make moves during the season if there is even the smallest chance of making the playoffs. And while trading Kazmir and Peterson might look horible to us the fans, other players in the league probably see a team that is not afraid to make a trade to get them to the next level.
Plus the Mets SHOULD not have the budget problems the Rangers had, especially with the Mets starting thier own network. I think the fact that the Mets play in NY, and he could be the Star of the Mets just as easily as Houston, the Mets should be able to at least have a shot at the guy.
With Cameron having no problem moving to RF for Beltran, Freddy Coupons better make a very good offer. This guy is healthy as a horse and is playoff proven. The Mets have no excuses this time...GO GET BELTRAN!!

As the Red Sox showed this year and the Yankees have shown in recent years, you can be a very successful team even with one (or more) very expensive players. You have to surround that player with talent and good teammates in order to make it worthwhile.

Despite what you've heard, A-Rod wasn't the problem in Texas. Sure, they overpaid for him. But he was probably worth the money. Texas' problem was paying upwards of $15 million per year for Chan Ho Park, amongst other bad moves, that forced them to trade A-Rod to free up money.

I almost wish Cameron hadn't done this, since it will only get our hopes up just to be dashed in the coming weeks/months.

Cameron is a good guy and I do kinda like him as my centerfielder, but don't give me the 30/30 great fielder, etc. 'cause i'll give you the .250 hitter, 150 K's, dropped flyballs in the sun, and most importantly, the fact that all of his homeruns and stolen bases came in June, July and August, after an absolutely horrendous first two months. nonetheless, i like him.

And i only think Beltran is a good idea if Freddy will have the pockets to go after good pitching, much more important than Beltran, when we are actually good in a couple of years.

2 reasons I am against getting Beltran:

1) Opportunity cost which states that when you spend your money on item A you won't be able to spend money on item B. Signing Beltran may be one of those economic black holes that stifle our spending for years to come (read Mo Vaughn/Jeromy BOOO-Nitz, Bobby BOOO-Nilla). Beltran will command upwards of $15-20 mill a season for at least 5-7 years creating a giant sunk cost in the Met payroll preventing them from spending that significant chunk of change on other players to fill the many other holes they have (1b, Catcher soon, LF, 'pen). An example (assuming Beltran costs $10-12 mill/year:

Beltran $10-12 - 31 winshares in 2004 (KC and HOU)

OR

JT Snow- $1 - 20 winshares
JD Drew- $8-10 - 34 winshares

2) The winners curse. When you have multiple bidders for a commodity (Beltran) each bidder has a different value for the commodity. Club A may value Beltran at $100 mill, Club B at $125 mill, Club C at $80 mill. None of the 4 bidders has an actual idea what Beltran's real value is so as the bidding goes up, low bidders drop out. If Beltran goes for $110 mill, Club B thinks they got a steal cause they got Beltran for $15 mill less than their equillibrium. But if over the course of his contract, Beltran only posts $85 mill in benefits? Then the $15 mill bargain has just turned into a $25 mill net loss.

Since there is no way of valuing Beltran as a free agent it is dangerous to invest so many resources in one place.

There are a number of flaws in your analysis, Gene. Firstly, comparing Beltran to Vaughn et al is unfair and inaccurate. You certainly can't count on Beltran tanking like those players.

When discussing available payroll in the coming years, you have to consider the $15 million saved from losing Piazza, $10 million from Al Leiter, $6.5 million from Cliff Floyd, $5 million from Roger Cedeno, $11 million from Tom Glavine in two years, etc. Signing a big ticket free agent like Beltran does not preclude the Mets from pursuing other free agents.

Showing a one-year winshare count for JT Snow and JD Drew is misleading. JT Snow had a terrific offensive season in 2004, his best career season to be more precise. To count on him replicating that this or any year would be foolish. Signing Beltran would not preclude the Mets from spending $2-$3 million on Snow or Tino Martinez, anyway. JD Drew is also a strange case, because he finally played a full season. He's a fantastic talent, to be sure, but is more of a risk to be counted on for a full season of games.

As far as Beltran's actual worth, who's to say. He's more valuable to some teams than others, and probably worth as much to the Mets as any team. That doesn't mean they need to overpay for him, but they can probably afford to commit more to him than, say, the Astros, as he represents a significant talent upgrade over the Mets current roster, while the Astros already have very productive players in Lance Berkman, and aging but still productive Craig Biggio, Jeff Bagwell, and Jeff Kent if he sticks around.

Fair assessment, the simple analysis before is not representative of the actual abilities brought to the table by any of the players I mentioned. I was trying to make the point that Beltran is over-valued in the current market and that there are several other players with similar characteristics that are undervalued this season; that being said, i feel the team that signs Beltran will over pay for him.

Here is a quick rundown of Magglio, Beltran, Drew, Brad Fullmer (not sure if his option was picked up), and Frank Catallano.

I have not accounted for injury since I don't know the extent of Ordonez's injury or the fact that Drew only avgs. roughly 125 games/season- but these are just raw numbers. Also, the reason why i have ground ball/fly ball ratio is that Shea is not a fly ball hitters park, in fact, they go to shea to die(burnitz comes to mind- lifetime .88 ground ball/fly ball). pitches per plate appearence aggregate teh effect a player has on an opposing pitching staff and is a good indicator of how tough an out they are. ISO, bb/k, and OBP are self explanatory as to why they're important.

(all stats are career)

Ordonez (8 seasons, 4214 total plate appearences):
3.54 pitches/plate app; 1.34 gb/flyb; .364 obp; .77 bb/k; .218 ISO

Beltran (7 yrs, 3911 plate appearences):
3.72p/pa; 1.27gb/fly b (was in the 1.5 range pre 2003 has been trying to hit flys recently i guess); .353 obp; .58 bb/k; .206 ISO

Drew (7 yrs, 2869 plt. apps):
3.82 p/pa; 1.1 gb/flyb; .391 obp; .74 bb/k; .227 ISO

Fullmer (8 yrs, 3065 plt. apps):
3.37 p/pa; .97 gb/flyb; .336 obp; .58 bb/k; .207 ISO

Catallano (local product from CW Post on Long Island 8 yrs, 2475 plt. apps):
3.73 #p/pa; 1.25 gb/flyb; .358 obp; .58 bb/k; .160 ISO

Honestly I don't think overpaying for Beltran is a bad thing at all. I'd rather overpay for a superstar player in his prime with no history of injuries than to take a chance at a more risky acquisition for less money (Ordonez, Drew).

Most of the Mets problems the past few years stem from always going after the expensive rehab project rather than the really expensive healthy superstar.

The Mets have a lot of room with their payroll this year and will be getting even more the next couple. They have to spend this money on the best players available and, this year, Beltran is the best player out there. We need him and if the Mets were smart they'd get him, whatever it takes

Jay,
Fundamentally, I completely agree with you. We balk at A-Rod so we go with Mo Vaughn and Burnitz. Don;t sign Vlad so we get Shane Spencer/Karim Garcia, et al. The thing is, I know we have a lower payroll this year (88 mill). 2006, however, is kind of a big year for 3 reasons.

1) The current MLB luxury tax, as ammended by the 200 collective bargaining agreement, threshold is 22.5% for any payroll over $128 mill for the 1st year; 30% the 2nd time over $128 mill; and 40% thereafter. In 2006, the luxury tax threshold becomes $136.5 mill- giving teams a little more wiggle room without paying that hefty tax.

2) Most importantly, the Baseball Luxury Tax expires after the 2006 season- meaning a team can spend like crazy on the 2005-2006 free agent market and have a window where they can surpass the Luxury tax rthreshold without penalty after 1 season. This means they will not have to pay a tax for their spending in 2007 (read: prorated contracts in 2006 with money deferred to 2007, 2008). This will allow more free spending that year and only teams that can afford to spend will spend- If you're gonna be a major league free agent, 2006 and 2007 are going to be great times. The reason why FA spending will increase is that the CBA expires on December 19th, 2006 and everything is up in the air after that.

3) Finally, spending heavy of Beltran now precludes us from spending big in future FA markets if Beltran truly is tied into a supercontract (5 yrs 89 mill seems to be about his market value based on 5 bidders Red Sox, Cubs, Astros, Yanks, Mets). The thing to keep in mind about supercontracts is that they are no ensurable. A team can only ensure contracts up to 3 years, which is why Cammie, Kaz, Glavine, Looper all signed 3 yr deals. The Mets have been screwed by injury in the past and if Beltran goes down, the Mets would have to eat the entire cost of the contract and ensurance would not kick in one dime. THAT would be the nightmare scenerio. This same ensurance thing applies to Drew and Ordonez, but they could be signed to 3 year deals- making them ensurable.

Gene -

#2 would be even more motivation to go after Beltran now. Signing him for 6 years/$96 million would still leave room in 2006-07 to sign other star/superstar pitchers. Particularly with increased revenue from the MESS Network starting in 2006, the Mets will have more money to kick around.

Beltran is one of the top all-around players in the league, and there is reason to believe that he'll actually get better. He struggled with his average last season, but his plate discipline is improving and his power is improving. His ISOD (isolated discipline, or OBP-AVG) has increased every year since 2001: .056/.073/.082/.100. His isolated power has also improved over that time: .208/.228/.215/.281.

All of this at a premium defensive position. He is a top-5 defensive centerfielder, and is 192/215 (89%) for his career in stolen bases, which is astounding.

He will also be playing his age 28 season in 2005, is a switch hitter, I could keep going.

Beltran doesn't have the same pure hitting ability as Vlad Guerrero, but has better plate discipline and is a better all-around ballplayer than Vlady.