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where is part 2?

sign Mientkiewicz!!
from last spring at the very savvy
Aaron Gleeman

Strictly going by offensive contributions, Mientkiewicz hit .300/.393/.450 in 142 games last year. That was good for ninth among all major league first basemen in Runs Above Replacement Position (RARP), 10th in Value Over Replacement Position (VORP), and eighth in Runs Created Above Position (RCAP)

Defensive contributions are much harder to quantify. Mientkiewicz is, according to just about anyone you could ask and any defensive metric you can find, a phenomenal defensive first baseman. In fact, in my opinion he is the best defensive first baseman I have ever seen.

- Diamond-Mind has given Mientkiewicz their highest possible rating - "Excellent" - for each of the past three seasons.

- Mitchel's Lichtman's Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) system ranks Mientkiewicz #2 among all first basemen since 2000, just slightly behind Todd Helton (another outstanding defender).

- David Pinto's Probabilistic Model of Range (it could use a catchier name, but it's a very good system) ranked Mientkiewicz #3 among everyday first basemen last season.

- Baseball Prospectus shows Mientkiewicz as 58 Fielding Runs Above Replacement (FRAR) over the last three years.

I could go on and on, but I think you get the point. If you have a top-10 offensive first baseman and he is an elite defensive first baseman, doesn't that make him a damn good player?

Bill James' Win Shares is one of the few metrics that attempts to put together both offense and defense. Using Win Shares, Mientkiewicz ranked third among AL first basemen (behind only Carlos Delgado and Jason Giambi) and eighth among all major league first basemen last year.

Using Dave Studemund of BaseballGraphs.com's Wins Shares Above Replacement (which I happen to think is an extremely good stat, much better than raw Win Shares), Mientkiewicz checks in at 11.6 WSAR. That once again ranks him third in the AL and eighth overall.

So, essentially, Mientkiewicz was probably about the eighth-best first baseman in all of baseball last year. Of course, he wasn't nearly as good in 2002, when he hit just .261/.365/.392. He was, however, similarly effective in 2001, hitting .306/.387/.464 while providing his always-outstanding defense.

Basically, Mientkiewicz has been a top-10 first baseman in two of the last three years, with a horrible offensive season sandwiched in-between.

Having watched him play nearly every game of his entire career, I feel confident that Mientkiewicz's true ability is a whole lot closer to his 2001 and 2003 numbers than his 2002 numbers. Which is another way of saying I feel like he's a legit top-10 first baseman.

Is a guy who hits .306/.387/.464 (in 2001) or .300/.393/.450 (in 2003) while playing Gold Glove-caliber defense worth $2.8 million in 2004 and $3.75 million in both 2005 and 2006? Even on a team with a payroll that will likely remain under $60 million for that entire time, I think the answer is yes.

Are you sure Mientkiewicz is a free agent? Mientkiewicz signed a 2 yr deal February 16th, 2004 with Minnesota with a club option for a third year. Yes, I agree, Mientkiewicz is one of the most underrated players at his position and that is precisely why Theo went out and got him at the July deadline last year. If we could pry him away from Boston (highly unlikely given his reasonable contract 2.8 mill/yr and good output)I would LOVE to get him. But we probably don't have the pieces Epstein and Red Sox Nation wants to get Mientkiewicz. From what I understand, the Sox need starting and releif pitching and catching for next season and we don't have a reasonable chip to offer (who really wants an overpaid, over the hill Glavine or Mike Stanton anyway)?

As far as available free agents: I love some big names like Tino, Brad Fullmer, and Olerud. Though Olerud and Tino Martinez are pretty old and could only be 1 year solutions.

And some not as big names: Robert Fick (career .329 obp, 180 bb, 287 ks in 1800 abs), Dave Hansen (career .365 obp, 274 bb, 315 ks in 1700 ab), Travis Lee [if healthy] (.340 obp, 380 bb, 565 ks, 92 hrs in 2993 abs)

Minky is most definitely not a free agent. According to DugoutDollars (see sidebar link), Minky is due to make $3.5 million this year in the second year of a two-year deal.

I'll try to get part 2 of the State of the Mets up as soon as I can.

can someone explain to me the logic behind trading Reyes for Soriano?

Soriano has never had a season with more than 38 walks, and has never had an obp higher than .338 (career .323 obp). yes, soriano is fast, athletic and has power. but so do a bunch of guys who hit at the ballpark in arlingotn.

soriano also has a pesky gb/fly ball ratio of .80 for his career indicating that he's a fly ball hitter and fly ball hitters go to shea to die. im not saying soriano is a bad player (avgs around 30 hrs a year) and hits for average (but low obp). but his strikeout numbers are mike cameron levels of bad- 157-130-121 in the last 3 years alone and 551 for his career (only 124 bbs). is this really a franchise player?

jose reyes has tremendous trade value right now and although reyes is not a statistically great player, he has a pretty broad market appeal among major league scouts. reyes has arguably better speed than soriano and has a higher career stolen base .87 in 37 attempts vrs .77 in 180 attempts for soriano.

the two seem to be very similar players- good speed, high strikeouts, low walks. fonzie has some more power, while reyes has more speed and a lot more youth. yeah, reyes has that injury thing, but soriano has that error-prone, unwilling to play the outfield thing....

so someone please explain to me what the mets higher ups are thinking and don't even get me started on sosa and his gravy train contract that has 3 years left on it.

I love the idea of the Mets going after Mientkiewicz, and I think they can come up with a package to get him, too. Something along the lines of Heilman or Seo plus Jason Phillips and a minor league reliever could be enough to get the job done. Problem is, I've heard that the Sox are more likely to shop Kevin Millar than they are Mientkiewicz.

As far as the rest of what's available goes, Fullmer is a guy that the Mets could probably get for peanuts, considering he made just $1 million last season and had a woeful year. But he doesn't exactly fit the bill in terms of the defensive-minded first baseman the Mets are reportedly looking for. He'd be a nice bat to have on the bench, but I don't know if I'd want him playing every day

As for Tino and Olerud, if the pickin's are slim enough that the Mets are considering going for one of those two, I'd just as soon see them give Craig Brazell a shot, with Valent and maybe a Fullmer type waiting in the wings in case he falls flat on his face.

First off, I think your Part One was excellent, but from a historical perspective, it needs to include the mid-season trades that were Duquette's true downfall, particularly Kazmir. He rolled the dice on a pennant run, and the Mets rolled over on him within the week.

Mienkiewitz doesn't do much for me. We were 14th out of 16 NL teams in hits in 2004. Minky hit, what, about .240 in Boston with no power? Eric Valent had better offensive numbers in 2004. And we'd have to trade something to get him? I'd rather get an Aubrey Huff or a Richie Sexson for that important power position. Or put Cliff Floyd there, who is only 31 and came up as a first baseman. He could blossom in 2005 at the plate with the wear and tear of flopping around left field off him. There are plenty of corner OF FAs there to fill in.

Also...if the Mets move Piazza, I'd like to see us land Jason Kendall from the Pirates. He is there for the taking due to his contract, and that is exactly the kind of guy we ought to be using our big market muscle to land. All he did last year was bat about .319 and he brings speed as well.

Some ways to earn money in Businness ...