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nice job eric.

although you don't mention victor diaz as a bright spot or potential starter next season. simple oversight, or do you not see him as part of the picture for some reason?

interestingly, the ny fishwrap... err... post is reporting that vic diaz has been taking some innings at catcher in the dominican league. they speculate that this may foreshadow a piazza move.

This was more of a reflection on last season than a look forward, I would say. I think Diaz could be a good player for the Mets if they give him a chance to play. It's difficult to say, given all of the stories floating around, whether there will be a place for Vic to play next season. He has raked at every level of the minors, so I think he can be a perfectly capable big league hitter.

His plate discipline is not very good, though, so the likelihood of him becoming a superstar is remote.

I read that same article about Diaz playing behind the plate, though it doesn't sound very promising. Diaz has been subpar wherever he has played defensively, so playing him at a demanding position like catcher probably isn't the solution. If the Mets were to trade Piazza, Jason Phillips or Vance Wilson (or a combination thereof) would be his most likely replacement.

I don't read much into Diaz catching a few innnings in the DR. Last year the Mets had one or two "catchers" they could field in an extreme emergency - Zeile, and I believe McUseless was the other one. Since Zeile is now retired, and McUseless is. . .well. . .useless, maybe the Mets are just seeing if they can add Diaz to the bottom of their emergency catcher depth chart? I like the kid's bat a lot, and his glove seems "adequate" - it certainly can't hurt if we learn he can be an "adequate" emergency catcher as well.

Good post Eric.

I agree that pitching is fairly well set. I hope we can replace Lieter with a Pavano/Radke/Ortiz type to either get us a little younger or give us more innings to save our bull pen.

I am hoping the Mets do one of two things at first base. Rent a first baseman this year like Martinez, or Olerud, and then go after Paul Konerko next year. The other option would be to trade for Aubrey Huff. Huff is so-so in the field but he can hit very well and is only 27. He makes around $4-5 mil this year.

I think Konerko makes about $8 mil this year and is 28 or 29 years old. He has pretty decent power numbers and plays a decent first base.

My other comments are that I hope we don't get Sosa. We don't need an expensive, selfish player in decline. That's probably why he will be our right fielder.

If we go for a head case, why not trade Floyd to the Red Sox for Ramirez and his 20 million dollars? He can hit better at this stage of his career.

Here's why the Sosa deal makes sense for the Mets:

1) He's still a better hitter than Cliff Floyd
2) He's a better fielder than Cliff Floyd
3) He's a bigger box office draw than Cliff Floyd
4) He will probably play more games than Cliff Floyd
5) He will probably pass 600 homeruns in 2005
6) He would be off the books after 2005 (Floyd would be on the books through 2006)

As if you couldn't tell from above, Sosa would be taking Floyd's spot (though he would play right field to Floyd's left field). You can't consider the acquisition of Sosa in a vacuum; you have to consider him as a replacement for Floyd. In that context, and given $4-$6 million in cash coming back from the Cubs, I think it would be a favorable trade for the Mets.

The problem with trading for Manny Ramirez is that he has four years and $80 million left on his contract, which is enough to choke a moose. The Mets have very little money committed to 2006 right now, and they're not about to tie up $20 million of it in Manny, regardless of how great a hitter he is.

Eric: you make great points about Floyd vs. Sosa, except it's been said that they might negotiate an extra year packed with incentives. How much less worth it does it become once you're talking about two years of a declining Sosa?

Sosa is only off the books after the 2005 season if the Players Union agrees to waive a clause in his contract stating that the 2006 option is automatically picked up if he is traded. Theoretically, waiving that clause shouldn't be a problem. I agree that the Sosa for Floyd deal doesn't look terribly bad on paper except that Sosa is on a steep decline:

'00: .406 obo, .634 slg, .315 IsoP, 50 hrs, .54 bb/k
'01: .437 obp, .737 slg, .409 IsoP, 64 hrs, .76 bb/k
'02: .399 obp, .594 slg, .306 IsoP, 49 hrs, .72 bb/k
'03: .358 obp, .553 slg, .275 IsoP, 40 hrs, .43 bb/k
'05: .332 obp, .517 slg, .264 IsoP, 35 hrs, .42 bb/k

If Sammy's $18 mill trade kick in clause for 2006 is waived, I don't think Sammy is a terrible option for 2005, but I would expect somthing like: .315 obp, .495 slg, 20-25 hrs and a about 140 ks. (Sammy avgs .9869 k/game over his career). And a lineup of Reyes, Matsui, Cameron, and Sammy would see 600 strikeouts among our top 4 hitters or roughly 1,200 strikeouts as a team, which is astronomical.

If the Mets have to assume Sosa's current $18 million option for 2006, this trade is a no-go. Word is that they won't have to, but I'm also hearing that Sosa doesn't want to go somewhere for just one year.

I would not make the deal if it meant any kind of contract for 2006. If this deal happens, I want Sosa off the books after 2005. The problem with incentive-laden deals in baseball is that the players union prohibits incentives to be performance-based. That means that any incentive would likely be contingent on plate appearances, and I would not want to take that chance of having Sosa around as he continues his decline in 2006. I would rather take that money and throw it at Lance Berkman.

Sosa played through injuries in 2004, and I would expect his 2005 numbers to be more like his 2003 numbers (.358 OBP, .553 SLG), which would be more than adequate. Moving from Wrigley to Shea should be less of a problem than one might think. Wrigley played as a pichers park from 2000-2003, and was actually quite similar to Shea in that regard.

Eric,

I agree with your regarding the Sosa deal. Regardless of his decline, Sosa is still feared as a hitter (more so than Floyd) and would offer better protection to Piazza or whoever else. Also, remember when Benitez was traded everyone thought that he was washed up, he came back stronger than anyone expected. I feel that Sosa-who loves attention-might have something to prove to his critics/fans and a fresh start might do wonders for him like it did for Benitez and Hidalgo (well, for 3 weeks-at least).

I also agree that Zambrano can, and hopefully will, hold his own. However, do you think someone in the Mets brain tank is thinking "Hey, if we still had Kazmir/Peterson right now, we could have shipped them to Oakland for Tim Hudson and we could have signed Benson as a free agent."
At least getting Hudson for those two would have eased the pain. Sorry to bring this up to those who still have nightmares about that deal.

That was one of the biggest problems with the Kazmir trade in the first place. Not that Zambrano won't be effective, but one would think that the best left-handed pitching prospect in all of baseball could fetch someone like a Tim Hudson or Mark Texeira. GMs leaguewide would have been lining up with offers to the Mets had they known Kazmir were available.

The Floyd deal makes no sense to me even without the option year kicking in.

For starters, Sosa costs about $8 million more than Floyd does over two years. If you're worried about having money in 2006, just pay Floyd his entire contract now--he's still cheaper than Sosa's one year contract, and you don't have a buyout.

Obviously by taking on this much additional salary, the Mets are far less likely to spend it elsewhere. Whomever you'd like to see in Shea next year, Sosa makes it less likely.

Third, what kind of deal is it if the best case scenario is the player leaves in a year? Why take on salary to acquire a player who you want to leave?

But worst of all, Sosa is not better than Cliff Floyd.
Win Shares WSAA OPS+
Sammy 14 0 110
Cliff 14 2 110

He did get about 80 more plate appearances than Floyd, but are those plate appearances worth $10 million? Especially when we are paying Eric Valent, who also had an OPS+ of 110, just $300,000?

For that matter, shouldn't we just let Valent and Diaz play in left, dump Floyd and use the money savings to go after a player who can help the team this year and beyond like Beltran or Drew?

The Floyd-for-Sosa trade would be contingent upon the Cubs picking up Sosa's buyout for 2006 of $4.5 million. The "best case scenario" is not that Sosa leaves in a year, but that he comes in and hits .300/.370/.600 with 45 homeruns. He could be reasonably expected to hit .270/.340/.520, which would be fine.

The biggest mistake you've made is comparing these two players for a single season (2004) and coming to the conclusion that they are equivalent. Sosa has certainly proven over the course of his career that he is the better player (an HOF player to be sure). Sosa is four years older than Floyd, which is a concern, but only one that they Mets have to worry about for a single season.

I agree with you that it seems foolish to pay Sosa $10.5 million more than Floyd for what might be perceived as a small boost in production, and I don't consider such a swap to be a steal of any sort, I just think it works out better for the Mets than many people think. There are certain to be a number of people in the Mets organization who want no part of this deal. Sosa will bring people to the stadium, and could very conceivably make up for a substantial portion of the difference in his salary at the box office and concession stands. Don't undervalue the 600 homerun mark, either.

I don't think trading for Sosa would preclude the Mets from acquiring any big name free agents, but I agree that I would nix the deal if it had any bearing on the potential acquisitions of a Mr. Beltran or a Mr. Drew.

I'm not sure where you find hope that Sosa could come in and hit for a .970 OPS; even .860 seems rather optimistic.

In 2001, Sosa had an astounding 1174 OPS, and a 201 OPS+. It was his fourth straight year over 1000 OPS, and by far the best of his career.

Since that time, however, he's declined every year, and in every category, and by a lot. His OBP has declined 30-40 points each year, his average declined by 30 points twice, and by 10 once; his slugging declined by 143 points, then 41, then 36.

Last year, he had an OPS of .849. He's 36, and dramatically declining. Moreover, a move to Shea would take him from a hitter's park to a pitcher's park.

Overall, Wrigley is ranked 5th, while Shea is 16th, but it's even more extreme when you focus on home runs, which is the one part of Sammy's game that is significantly better than Cliff Floyd's--Wrigley was number 2 for home runs last year, while Shea was number 26.

As for money, even if the Cubs pay the $4.5 million buyout for the Mets, his $17 million salary is still $4 million more than both years of Floyd's combined. The Mets are negotiating hard right now with Kris Benson over $1 million a year for the next 3-4 years, so I'm fairly sure that adding $4 million to the payroll would significantly impact the Mets acquisitions this off-season.

Since I think Floyd will most likely be dumped in a deal that will save the Mets something like half to 2/3 of Floyd's salary, getting Sosa really costs the Mets about $10-12 million, which could definitely be put to use in getting Drew or Beltran or whomever else you want.

But forgetting all that, and assuming your best case scenario is true--Sammy's OPS is better than last year's and the Mets still get a top-notch outfielder like, say, Drew--that means no playing time for Valent or Diaz.

Valent is 27, and had the same OPS+ last year as Sosa. Diaz is soon to be 23, and has performed well at every level, including his cup of coffee last year in the majors. Both these guys could help the Mets in 2005 as much as Floyd or Sosa, but more importantly, have a much better chance to help the Mets beyond 2005. It seems to me that if they are going to sit, the player they are sitting for better be either much, much better in 2005, or more a part of the future. Sosa doesn't qualify on either score, even in the best case scenario.

I don't disagree with you, James. You don't have to convince me that Sosa is in decline, you are already preaching to the choir. Sosa is indeed a risk, and the Mets would be better off seeking a number of different scenarios.

Ideally, the Mets would trade Cliff Floyd to an American League team, offer to pick up half of his salary, and get back a very good prospect in return. I encourage the Mets to play Valent and/or Diaz, or even both in a platoon, and spend their money on Beltran or Drew or Berkman in 2006.

That said, there would be worse one-year stopgap solutions than Sammy Sosa, considering the benefit of unloading of Cliff Floyd. I do not endorse even a single additional year of Sosa (age 37+), optional or otherwise.

Switching onto pitching, Eric, I have to ask you:

Who would you rather have if the opportunity presented itself- Radke or Pavano? I lean a little towards Radke because I feel his peripherals were better then Pavano's, but Radke struggled badly in 2002 and did so so in 2003. I'd like to hear everyone elses opinion as well.

Instead of Sosa, the Mets need to focus on pitching in this season's offeason free agent market. There will be a bevy off available outfielders in '05 and some interesting ways to fill gaps from within the system (Valent, Diaz, Wayne Lydon???) as well as some interesting value free agents in 2004 (Like Eric Young who plays all 3 OF, 2b, SS, and 3b- with a statline that reads: .753 OPS, .361 OBP, 1.39 G/Fly Ball, 1.45 bb/k, .74 sb% (450 career steals), 3.62 p/pa).

The 2004 FA crop of pitchers Pavano, Benson, Lowe, Morris, Millwood, Milton, Perez, and Radke isn't the top-heavy bunch of pitching one would hope for, but it is certainly among the deepest pools of available pitching in quite some time- and significantly deeper than the 2005-06 free agent pitching crop that highlights Mark Mulder and Tim Hudson, but has a severe drop off after that (Brian Anderson, Tim Wakefield, Jason Johnson, Ryan Dempster, Kirk Reuter, Kenny Rogers, Jeff Weaver).

The outfield depth this year is also suspect with Drew, Ordonez, and Beltran- but also loaded with value guys like Eric Young (who is 37 but has a lifetime .361 obp, 628 bb and only 433 ks in 5839 abs), Ben Greive (.367 obp), and David Dellucci (.339 obp). Compared to the potential '02-'06 group: Johnny Damon, Jose Guillen, Carlos Lee, Preston Wilson/Terrence Long/Jay Payton, Juan Pierre, Jose Cruz Jr., Randy Winn, Matt Stairs, Tim Salmon, and Shawn Green. Looks to me like 05-06 has a deeper group of outfielders.

2005-06, however, is a great time to spend on first basemen as Paul Konerko, Kevin Millar, Doug Mientkiewicz, Dimitri Young, Scott Hatteburg, and Frank Thomas (if he doesn't retire) may become eligible for Free Agency.

Basically, the Mets must do something they've never done before- plan for their future and allocate resources accordingly- something that any reasonable corporation should do. 2004 seems to be the year of the star outfielder and deep pitching talent- 2 places the Mets have giant holes. Beltran is overrated and not worth the 10 yr $200 mill Boras wants, but he's a great player; Ordonez in't gonna be worth the $8-10/year Boras will demand, but he can flat-out hit if healthy; and Drew is extremely injury prone, but is waiting to break out if healthy. Pitching will be easiest to fill in 2004, with Benson all but locked up to a 3 yr 23 mill deal and bunch of other help still available. I guess the Mets need to be careful where they spend their money this year because I would hate to miss out on a Paul Konerko, Doug Mientkiewicz, Mark Mulder, Tim Hudson bidding war cause we overspent on Sammy/Beltran.

Salz,

All things being equal (which of course they are not), I would take Pavano because of his age. He will be 29 on opening day, while Radke will be 32.

Beyond that, Pavano has better strikeout numbers, but also allows more walks. Radke consistently posts terrific K/BB numbers, and you can typically count on him to throw 200+ innings. He does give up a few more homeruns (1.16 HR/9, Pavano 0.91 HR/9) compared to Pavano, but walks far fewer (1.68 BB/9 compared to 2.60 BB/9).

Radke reminds me much of former Met Rick Reed, which is not a bad thing at all. I would probably sooner give Radke a three-year deal (age 32-34 seasons), considering he will probably come more cheaply ($2-$3 million per year) than Pavano.

Nice writeup. The numbers on Leiter are very interesting.

Here is my take on the issues at hand:

Sosa. No. We don't need to get older and add strikeouts and salary. Going from Wrigley to Shea is like going from a bandbox to the Grand Canyon, and Sosa's slugging numbers are already in precipitious decline.

Reyes: Let's stop imbuing this guy as the franchise. He never walks, and he is WAY too fragile for a 21 year old. It would not break my heart to trade him, for all the obvious reasons (8 major leg injuries in the past 24 months). for instance, if he was traded as the centerpiece of a Barry Zito package, and we then signed Edgar Renteria, I'm sure I'd find people b!tchin' on the internet, but it would be a great move.

Floyd. Trade him for youth or pitching or young pitching if you must. But I really would be very happy with him at first base. It was his original position, and he might benefit physically from not having to flop around in left field as he is prone to do. At age 31, if his bat returned to his career highs, he would be a steal at his contract numbers. But you have to count on him for about the 5-6 spot in the order, not the 3-4 spot.

Piazza: Unless you can trade him for youth or pitching or young pitching, let him do the one more year behind the plate and give him a gold watch. Any trade would only be rearranging the furniture (e.g: Shawn Green). Guillen is the only interesting rumor I've heard, but we'd have to check his meds.

First base: If not Floyd, let's try to get a good young stud here like Sexson. I don't want to see John Olerud hitting .215 and batting 8th in June.

Corner OFers: I'd like to see us do what the Yankees do and sign four real stud OFers. Sign Jermaine Dye and Hidalgo and Magglio to short incentive-laden rich contracts, or sign two of them and trade for Guillen, and let them battle for playing time. Cameron has the job in center. Diaz is on the bench.

Beltran: No way does Fred Wilpon ever win a bidding war for the most expensive free agent in any given year. Move on. Next topic.

Al Leiter: Thanks for the memories. Drop us a line if you want to relieve.

Kris Benson: Yank the offer and go get Pavano or Derek Lowe or Matt Clement. This guy has been mediocre his whole career, and this extended negotiation p#@$$es me off.

Jason Kendall: This is exactly the kind of guy we should be leveraging our financial muscle to pick up. For little or nothing we could pick up a 30 year old defensive catcher with speed who hit .319 last year.

Aubrey Huff: If this guy is really available from Tampa Bay, I'd love to get him. Maybe remind them they didn't have exact change when we made our last trade and they owe us.

Middle infielders: With our porcelain doll middle infield, we should go get a veteran bat who can step in without much of a drop off when Reyes or if Matsui goes down. Royce Clayton is a name I'd throw out, if he doesn't land a starting gig.

Bottom line: Don't add anyone over 30 (I think Kendall just turned 30). Oh yeah, except Clayton.

Realistically, this would be my offseason Mets blueprint:

Sign Eric Young (1 yr $550k), Tino (1 yr, $2 mill), Jim Mecir (2 yrs, $2.5 mill), Pavano (3 years, $35 mill), find a way to trade for Calvin Pickering

Lineup as follows:

c- Piazza, Wilson, Phillips

1b- Tino Martinez (1 yr, 2 mill), Valent, Phillips
(hold the fort for a year until Paul Konerko, Kevin Millar, Doug Mientkiewicz, Dimitri Young come onto the FA Market in '05)

2b- Kaz, [Keppinger/Garcia/McEwing] whoever wins out of spring training gets utilityman job

SS- Reyes, Keppinger/Garcia/McEwing

3b- Wright, Keppinger/Garcia/McEwing

LF- Floyd (No one wants him except the Cubs for Sammy), Valent, Eric Young (1 yr, $550 k)

CF- Cameron, Eric Young

RF- Valent, Diaz, Eric Young

SP- Glavine, Benson, Trachsel, Zambrano, Pavano (3 yrs $35 mill)[Radke isn't going anywhere]

RP- Fortunato, Ginter/Blake McGinley, Moreno, Stanton, Yates, Jim Mecir (2 yrs, $2.5 mill)

CP- Looper

Also on 40-man roster:
Brazzell 1b, Baldiris 3b, PJ Bevis rp, Jeff Duncan of, Jae Seo sp, Mike Jacobs c, Heilman sp, Jay Roach sp, Chris Widger c, Wayne Lydon of, Esix Snead of, Vic Darensburg rp, Randy Keisler rp, Calvin Pickering (if we can work a trade with KC), and Pat Strange sp.

2005 Payroll breaks down as such:
$72.500 mill for outstanding contracts
+ $1.250 (Mecir)
+ $11.334 (Pavano)
+ $0.550 (Young)
+ $2.000 (Tino)