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Who Catches If Piazza Leaves?

Speculation is running rampant that Mike Piazza may not be the opening day catcher for the Mets in 2005, with rumors having him headed to Anaheim, Los Angeles, or anyplace else sportswriters think would look nice under their byline. If Piazza goes, who does the majority of the catching for the Mets next season? Unless the Mets get someone back in a trade (Jason Kendall) or do something silly like sign Jason Varitek as a free agent, it will be either Jason Phillips or Vance Wilson.

Ed Tsunoda of NYFS and his new blog The Eds-Op Page thinks that it should be Wilson. I'm not so sure.

Vance Wilson is a nice catcher. He has historically been a terrific throwing catcher, nabbing 49% and 45% in 2002 and 2003, respectively. He tailed off a bit last year, catching only 34% of would-be base-stealers in 2004. He also had his best offensive season by far last year, with a very respectable (for a catcher) .274/.335/.427 line. His previous best season was 2002 when he hit .245/.301/.380, which was pretty shabby, but still better than any season Mike Matheny has ever put up, OPS-wise. He also throws better than Matheny. Unforunately, there are no good metrics for "blocking the plate" or "calling a good game", which I'm told Matheny is very good at.

If you told me Vance Wilson would hit for a .762 OPS while nailing 40% of base-stealers, I would pay him a million bucks and stick him in the 8-hole. I'm fairly sure we can't expect so much of him, though. He has never had more than 268 at-bats in a season, and I wonder whether he could catch 130 games and not wear down entirely. We saw it a bit in 2003 when Piazza was out for much of the year with that groin injury. After hitting .283/.333/.433 in the first half, Wilson hit an incomprehensible .148/.198/.235 after the All-Star break. Go back and read that line again. We're only talking about 81 at-bats, but that is still a miserable stretch.

Jason Phillips, while not as accomplished a defensive catcher as Wilson, has been a much more prolific offensive player, his dreadful 2004 season notwithstanding. Many people lost patience with Phillips this year, and you can count me among them. But he was terrific in 2003, hitting .298/.373/.442, and was a very successful hitter in the minor leagues.

JASON PHILLIPS MINOR LEAGUE BATTING

              AB  BB   SO   AVG   OBP   SLG
2000 A/AA    395  30   28  .304  .353  .413
2001 AA/AAA  383  38   33  .295  .359  .457
2002 AAA     323  24   29  .282  .327  .477
2003 AAA      78  11    9  .346  .435  .564

Phillips has shown a good eye at the plate in the past, drawing a walk approximately every 10 at-bats. I am confident that Phillips can regain his swing. Jeromy Burnitz' 2003 season was eerily similar to Phillips' 2004, at least in terms of their visible approach at the plate. Burnitz hit .215/.311/.365 in 2002 and hit .274/.344/.581 (for the Mets) in 2003. This proves nothing, of course, as to what Phillips can be expected to do next year.

Based on their batting history, this job should be Phillips' to lose next year, in the event that Mike Piazza is not with the team. Personally, I think the Mets would probably be better off with Piazza catching for them next year. If that doesn't happen, Phillips' superior offensive production is preferable to Wilson's throwing prowess, and Wilson will likely be relegated to backup duty once again.