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Totally agree, Eric, and it's a shame the Mets aren't going to get any compensation out of any of their free agents this year.

Heck, I would have rather taken the risk of a $9 million Hidalgo for one year rather than Moises Alou for any salary.

The caveat with Hidalgo is that he and his agent have admitted that they are looking for a one-year deal to use a springboard for a longer-term deal after 2005. It may be that no other team would be willing to offer him more than one year at $5-$6 million, which would increase the probability of him accepting arbitration. He also made $12.5 million in 2004, so it's anybody's guess what an arbitrator might award him.

My feeling is that Al Leiter was almost a guarantee to leave, while Hidalgo was a better bet to stay. The risk of offering arbitration to Leiter was therefore much lower. Plus he's still a pretty good pitcher.

Leiter is one of my all-time favorite Mets. What they did to him is just wrong. Yes, it's a business, but even in the "real world," most good companies don't go out of their way to treat loyal employees badly.

Well, Leiter made $10M last year and finished 9th in ERA, do you really think any arbitrator would have made him take a paycut? If anything, Leiter could have made $12+ in arbitration. Perhaps that was a risk the Mets should have taken, but I don't think is something we should hold against them, especially not when they are going to do even dumber things this offseason.

If signing 39 year old Al Leiter meant giving up a first round draft choice, my guess is no one would have done it -- even the Yankees were holding back. And correct me if I'm wrong, but I do not believe MLB arbitration rules would allow anything beyond a 20ish percent cut decision from last year's contract. So that means, what, $8 million for 39 year old, 5 inning Al? Obviously Omar thought not.

At the end of the day, we can't judge this until we see the rotation Omar puts together, and how 2005 treats the aging Leiter. If Omar spends those millions on younger front of the rotation pitchers, I'm all for letting Al go.

Draft picks aren't worth anything anyhow (at least, not to the Mets). They STILL have not signed their number one pick from last year's draft - Humber.

And, of course, Kazmir is gone.

You might be right that Leiter wouldn't have accepted arbitration, but your argument seems predicated on the idea that Leiter is still a "good pitcher."

I don't think he is. His FIP in 2004 was 4.78. League average was 4.31. Heilman was at 4.75, and is young and improving. So the worst case scenario is not just overpaying for a good pitcher, it's paying a minimum of $8 million (and perhaps $12 million) for, at best, the same production you could get for $300,000.

I'd love to have another draft pick, but that kind of money can go a long way.

It's fair to argue that the gamble to offer arbitration was worth taking, but it certainly seems like a close call, and I can hardly blame the Mets for the decision they made.

You're right, I exaggerated Leiter's production a bit. I still contend that the likelihood of him accepting arbitration was very slim, considering how quickly he signed a deal with the Marlins. Leiter also would not be taking the place of Heilman, who I fear the Mets will never give a reasonable shot to.

Leiter is looking for a one year deal. Lowe is not. You cannot compare the two. Leiter may have accepted the one year deal and Lowe is looking for a multi year deal and would only accept arbitration as a last resort a la Kevin Millwood. Had Leiter been looking multi year, it's a different story.

I disagree. Despite his three wins in the postseason (one of which was in relief), Lowe had a distastrous season on the mound (following up a pretty lousy 2003). He is not going to get the 4 year/$48 million deal he is looking for, but if he can go back out there for the Sox again in 2005 and actually pitch like a decent major leaguer he could certainly improve his chances of landing a long-term, big money deal. I also cant stress enough the fact that Leiter had a deal already done with the Marlins save for putting pen to paper to sign it. The Marlins already knew they were going to sign him, they just wanted to find out whether or not it would cost them a draft pick to do so.

Leiter is almost 40. the mets are rebuilding. point in fact is that after a man makes 10 mil. and u buy him out, u have freed up 8 million of salary that can get u a Moises Alou who is not awesome, but gets stuff done. I loved Leiter, their best pitcher through the mid to late 90s and into 2000s. but Minaya had to make this move in order to try over pedro or odalis perez later. Lets not forget that Al with 9th in ERA but went 5 2/3 IP per start. that can lead to an exasuted bullpen especially iwth Glavine wrapped up for another year or two. Unless we got an effective 6 and 7th starter in the bullpen, that is hard to do that. I think Al leaving was good for the team even though, it hurt me as a fan to see him sign with the Marlins

oh and by the way Elliot, think b4 u make choices....of course draft picks matter, how does anyone get to the major leagues....DRAFTED! Kazmir is gone and that sucks yes....Humber hasn't signed yes....but what if Kazmir turns into Rick ankiel in a fluke....Zambrano learns control and becomes dominant....and humber pitches for the mets or is used in a trade to get something valueable....then is draft picks pointless???? I'll answer for you
NO, A GOOD DRAFT IS THE WAY TO HAVE A GOOD FARM SYSTEM!

Eric, I completely understand your point, but the Mets made the cord-cutting "official" when they did not offer Al arbitration.

It likely cost us a draft pick, but it also closed the door shut - which IMO was necessary for the Mets to continue forward in their discussions with other starters, and to send an organizational message.

Most important, given Al's desire to stay at Shea for 1 more year, he could have easily stuck around and accepted arb (especially considering his inability to be a good sport recently). Given his EAR, he was likely get north of the $8m - earning more than his option would have paid him.