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Random Mets baseball question. Has anyone ever done any statistical analysis on the relevance of catchers throwing out base stealers to their CERA. Two reasons for my question:

1)I did an analysis where I looked at Piaza's CERA and compared it to his team's ERA when he didn't catch. Over 14 observations (13 yr career and 2 different teams in 1998), Piazza's CERA was only worse than the team's ERA when he wasn't catching 4 times (rookie yr, both teams in 1998 and in 1999). Also over his career, his CERA was 0.22 (5.5%) better than alternative catchers. For comparison, I-Rod's CERA was 0.34 (6.8%) better than alternative catchers on his team over his career and his CERA was worse than the alternative 4 of 14 years.

2)It doesn't make sense that throwing out runners should be so important. If a "good" catcher allows on average 0.6 more steals per game than a "bad" catcher (this is about the difference b/n Piazza and I-Rod) and if the runner is 50% more likely to score after the steal than before, then it should only add 0.30 to CERA (50%*0.6). 50% seems like a very aggressive assumption and it seems likely "calling a good game" could more than make up for the 0.30 hit to CERA even if 50% is the right number.

If this is true, maybe people should reevaluate whether Piazza is really the bad defensive catcher people think he is.

Wow, great post about Piazza out of left field. I've always thought his defense wasn't as bad as it was made out to be. A lot of it is based on statements from blockheads like Tim McCarver. I think the simple fact is that aside from calling a game, a catcher's defense has very little impact on the outcome of a game. They just aren't called on to make that may plays. Moreover, giving up a base (which is what typically happens when a catcher fouls up a defensive play) is far less damaging than giving up an out (what is lost when another defensive player fouls up). Can I prove any of this. Absolutely not. (Well, maybe I could, but 've got to get to work.)

On the question of Pedro's labrum: If these are the same people who said that Pedro had a done deal with the Sox, I'll wait to hear the results of the physical. The Mets should know better than to listen to anecdotal medical advice after the Guerrero debacle.