SaberMets.com

As a displaced Mets fan in Washington, DC, I'm just giddy with joy that there is at least one team in the NL East that has bigger problems than the Mets.

Just a comparison of the big SP contracts signed this offseason:
Pedro Martinez 4 yrs, $53 mill, 33 yrs old
Carl Pavano 4 yrs, $38 mill, 28 yrs old
Brad Radke 2 yrs, $18 mill, 32 yrs old
Jon Leiber 3 yrs, $21 mill, 34 yrs old
Russ Ortiz 4 yrs, $33 mill, 30 yrs old
Jaret Wright 3 yrs, $21 mill, 28 yrs old

now some 2004 stats:
Pedro: 217 inn, 9.42 k/9, 3.72 k/bb, 3.87 #p/pa
Pavano: 222.1 inn, 5.63 k/9, 2.84 k/bb, 3.47 #p/pa
Radke: 219.2 inn, 5.86 k/9, 5.50 k/bb, 3.71 #p/pa
Leiber: 176.2 inn, 5.2 k/9, 6.57 k/bb, 3.4 #p/pa
Ortiz: 204. 2 inn, 6.29 k/9, 1.28 k/bb, 3.87 #p/pa
Wright: 186. 1 inn, 7.68 k/9, 2.27 k/bb, 3.82 #p/pa

Pedro fares pretty well across the board in those statistical categories and isn't significantly older than these guys. But his contract jumps out at me as being significantly ore expensive than these comparable free agent pitchers.

Pedro is clearly the star of this class and boasts an astonishing k/9 ratio, but his k/bb ratio is 3rd among this free agent class and he averages the most pitches per plate appearence this year. This is interesting news for a 33 year old pitcher with a reported 90% tear in his labrum.

I have a torn labrum suffered in an old football injury myself and I know about the injury. I have had surgery and have never fully recovered. But I am not an elite athlete either. The shoulder probably won't affect Pedro throwing, but will make swinging a bat really, really complicated since the torque it takes to swing a bat has a tremendous impact on your ball joint in the shoulder. Pedro never had to swing in Boston, so it never affected him there. But he will hopefully be batting 2-3-4 times a game x 34 games for roughly 100 plate appearences next year which makes me worry about the durability of that shoulder. Hopefully he'll be fine, but that is a super red flag in my mind for an uninsurable $53 million contract.

That being said, I want to reiterate that I feel he is the best pitcher in this market and would bring the biggest impact for the Mets next year, but I worry about '07 and '08. Is Pedro really $15 mill better than Pavano? $35 mill better than Radke? That's for GM Omar to judge. Like everyone has said, this is a boom or bust contract, that might make Omar a genious or a goat. We shall see.

Gene makes some valid points but remember who we are talking bout....Pedro Martinez is a multi contract million dollar man. He was on the world series Red Sox team and for all intents and purposes wanted to return. however, when someone (Minaya) really wants a player (Martinez) to come to his losing team, when he was content with returnin to his winning team, caring and $$ is the price. Omar showed both and that is the ONLY reason Pedro came to NY- NOT BECAUSE HE LOVES IT but because he and his agent are idiots.

I'd like to see Kris Benson's stats listed, too.

As for Pedro being the best FA pitcher this winter, he is. Undoubtedly. But sometimes, depending on the actual level of the player and where the team actually is in terms of competing, signing the best available isn't necessarily so good. Take Bobby Bonilla for example, who was supposedly the cream of the FA crop when Harazin and Wilpon made their big splash for him. Maybe we luck out and get 4 HOF seasons from Pedro. Maybe we get 4 seasons like Sabes gave us. Just seems this wasn't the winter to make big commitments to the best available pitchers. Pedro, Pavano, Ortiz? Blechh. Not that the Mets had any choice since they have nothing stellar returning and nothing stellar in the immediate pipeline (that's signed) or any plan whatsoever to fix things besides overpaying for outside help to keep the status quo going.

The importance of Pedro's signing to the Mets will go beyond what he does on the mound. If he gives the Mets the legitimacy that Omar Minaya expects he will, and creates interest in the minds of other free agents and players (not to mention the kids in the Dominican Republic who want to grow up and pitch for the same team as their idol), his contract could pay for itself ten-fold.