SaberMets.com: Sweet Alou

December 20, 2004

Sweet Alou

NYFS is reporting that the Mets have come to terms with Moises Alou on a one-year deal in the $6-$8 million neighborhood, which is a very nice neighborhood for a 38-year-old outfielder with no range and frightening home/road splits. Just for fun I wanted to see how Alou might perform at Shea.

I performed a rudimentary analysis of Alou's 2004 home stats and, using ESPN.com's Park Factors, came up with a rough idea of what Alou might have done if those same at-bats took place at Shea Stadium instead of Wrigley Field.

This analysis has a number of problems, so it isn't to be taken too seriously. For one, I am only using a single year of stats and a single year of park factors, which is not usually good practice. This analysis also doesn't account for games actually played at Shea, which probably should be counted as Wrigley games if he were actually playing for the Mets. That said, here we go.

The following are park factors for Wrigley and Shea in 2004. Numbers greater than 1000 indicate a hitter's park; numbers less than 1000 indicate a pitcher's park.

                      R     H    2B   3B    HR   BB
Wrigley Field 2004  1123  1031  1001  913  1329  987
Shea Stadium 2004    974  1033   976  467   804  978

Based on those factors and 301 at-bats, here are Alou's home stats from last year along with his predicted stats from last year were he to have played those games at Shea:

                  R   H   2B 3B  HR  BB
Alou at Wrigley  72  102  20  3  29  37
Alou at Shea     62  102  20  2  18  37

And here is Alou's final line for 2004 along with his predicted final line from Shea 2004 (601 AB):

                        R    H   2B 3B  HR  BB   AVG   OBP   SLG
Alou 2004 (Actual)     106  176  36  3  39  68  .293  .361  .557
Alou 2004 (Predicted)   96  176  36  2  28  68  .293  .361  .500

Not too bad, really. Though I make no claims as to its accuracy, I would imagine that this projection would correlate somewhat well with Alou's actual production.

Eric | December 20, 2004 - 11:08 AM EST | TrackBack: 0
Category: Mets Rumors

Comments

Very interesting.

I'm not against signing an older bat to a short term contract, maybe someone to split time with Diaz as he learns a corner OF position. But you don't pay someone in that role $6 mil.

I'm wondering if Alou gets this contract from Omar if his name was Sven Alouskgven.

Posted by: m2c2c2 - December 20, 2004 at 01:44 PM EST

I'm sure it's no coincidence that:

a) Pedro and Alou are both Latino
b) Pedro and Alou are both represented by Fern Cuza
c) Omar Minaya and Cuza are both Latino

Posted by: Eric Simon - December 20, 2004 at 02:14 PM EST

I think Alou will do just fine at Shea. The only problem with him is he is extremely streaky. Hopefully he'll be hot when Mike Cameron, another streaky guy is cold, and vice versa.

Posted by: Andy41 - December 20, 2004 at 02:51 PM EST

I just read your 12-9-2003 post about platooning players. I think your dead-on about this, and a few GM's seem to be heading that direction (witness Epstein's platooning of Trot Nixon with Gabe Kapler in 2004). I actually think an Ortiz/Mirabelli (when he's not catching) platoon at DH could work out just as well for the Sox. Anyhow, I found this post via google because I am also interested in figuring out which players would make good platoons, so I tried searching the web with keywords such as "vs. LHP", etc. Unfortunately, I can't seem to find a site that ranks players according to their lefty/righty splits. It's easy enough to get the splits if you search by player, but I'd really like to compare players to one another. Do you have any advice for finding a ranking of players by OPS or OBP against LHP or RHP?

Posted by: Andy - December 21, 2004 at 01:23 AM EST

www.rototimes.com has really good statistical breakdowns by lefty-righty split, vrs different teams, at different parks. you might need a registration, i don't remember.

Posted by: Gene - December 21, 2004 at 10:07 AM EST

I totally agree with the comments regarding platoons. Earl Weaver was a master at this with those old Baltimore teams.

Posted by: Will - December 22, 2004 at 07:59 PM EST

Yet another brilliant scoop by Ed Tsunoma and the sophomoric wanna-be-journalists at NYfansites.com I guess somebody passed him a note in gym class. Sabermets, catch on to the obvious and stop quoting these knuckleheads!

Posted by: m2c2c2 - December 24, 2004 at 11:09 PM EST

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