derisively-intellectual mets chatter

January 24, 2005

Texas Drops Out


According to an article in the Star-Telegram, the Rangers are dropping out of the Carlos Delgado sweepstakes because they are unwilling to move Mark Teixeira off of first base and Delgado is unwilling to sign as a full-time designated hitter. The article goes so far as to say that:
all signs indicated Delgado will play for the Mets this season.
UPDATE #1: The Orioles are sticking to their 3-year deal, and they seem to think that Delgado will sign with the Mets (source: Baltimore Sun).

UPDATE #2: The Mets have pulled out? According to ESPN.com, the Mets have pulled out of the Delgado bidding.

Of course, this may just be rumor. I hope it isn't true, though. In case you weren't sure the Mets needed Delgado:

2004 Mets First Basemen (162 games): 73 Runs Created
2004 Carlos Delgado (120 games): 85 Runs Created

Extrapolated to an entire season, Delgado would have created 113 runs in 2004, and that takes into account a terrible first half. I didn't have VORP splits for Mets hitters, but ESPN.com provides RC splits, so that's what I used, even though it is inferior to VORP (VORP adjusts for ballpark and position played, amongst other things).

Using Runs Created, Delgado was worth approximately 40 runs more than the amalgamation of Mets first-basemen last season, which is roughly four wins, which is significant. I was surprised that Mets first-basemen performed so well last season, which makes me wonder if RC is more flawed than I first thought. Regardless, that is what I have to work with. Maybe Delgado would turn out to be worth six more wins, which would be an incredible improvement.

We should find out within the next 24-48 hours who Delgado will be playing for. If he doesn't sign with the Mets AND the Rangers are indeed out of it, keep your fingers crossed that the Orioles come out of the blue and sign him. As Andrew at Chuck 'n' Duck points out, if he signs with the Marlins, the Mets could be looking at another season as the fourth-best team in the NL East.



David Pinto at Baseball Musings has compiled his 2004 Probabilistic Model of Range by team, and the Mets clock in at 7th best in the Majors at converting expected outs into actual outs. They actually converted fewer outs than expected, though only around four-or-five total outs for the whole season. Twenty-five other teams performed below expectations, with the Cardinals and Red Sox sporting the most effecient defenses in the bigs.

David should have his ratings for individual players shortly, so it will be interesting to see how different players performed last year. Since we wll no longer be seeing league-wide UZR ratings (on account of MGL working for the Cardinals), David's work is probably the next best thing.



John Franco inked a one-year deal with the Astros for $700,000. Johnny is a good guy and put in some good years for the Mets, and I am happy to see him going out on his own terms. I am even happier that those terms don't include playing for the Mets. "They were the best offer," Franco said of the Astros deal, which must be like when my mother used to tell me I was her favorite sonny boy, knowing full well that my only siblings were both female.



The Eagles and the Pats are going to the Super Bowl. I wanted Atlanta and Pittsburgh to go, so I guess this is just another example of God shitting on me for being atheist. Such is life.


Comments

Is Mets management out of its FRACKING mind???!!! We came this far on Carlos Delgado and have backed out because he said he wanted more time to make a decision???!!! Does Mets management think if he didn't agree to sign that all of a sudden there's be a mad rush by clubs for the other available first basemen (or should I say EXCUSES for other first basemen available)?? Is that INSANE, or what??? Is any other FRACKING club beating down the doors of Travis FRACKING Lee???!! Is anyone else out there also horrified by this guy's career stats? And now, we're trying to bring back John Olerud??? Or trade for Doug Mientkiewicz??? And are we really now going after Magglio Ordonez, who has had NOT ONE, BUT TWO FRACKING knee surgeries??? All because management wanted a decision made by tonight? What's the FRACKING HURRY???!! Isn't a talent of Delgado's stature worth waiting a couple days more for?
I am SO FRACKING PISSED about this. He could've been the last vital piece in the lineup we needed.
I could accept it if we tried our best and were beaten by a better offer - but we lost him - TO A DIVISION RIVAL, NO LESS!!!! - because we weren't willing to give him more time?
THAT BLOWS.

Posted by: Mets4life - January 24, 2005 at 12:45 AM EST

Why not just spend the money on relief pitching and platoon Valent/Phillips at 1B? Valent hits lefties well, and Phillips can't possibly be as bad as he was last year. If Delgado can't post a .900+ ops for at least 3/4 years of the contract(and at his age there's no guarantee he will) he'll be a bust at that price..

Posted by: Ian - January 24, 2005 at 02:23 PM EST

I'm only lukewarm on Delgado.

-- He is outside the 28-32 prime hitting years, so he can expect to decline.

-- He has batted under .280 4 of the past 6 years, .269 last year.

-- Below average glove at first -- most teams wanted him as a DH.

-- the history of low average, defense-challenged power hitters that come to Shea is extremely poor.

If you can expect a decline from .269 based on age, and a decline from the 32 HRs based on Shea....what are we realistically expecting in 2005? .255 and 25 HRs? And for HOW much?

Wouldn't break my heart if we don't get him.

Posted by: m2c2c2 - January 24, 2005 at 03:26 PM EST

For starters, there isn't $12 million worth of relief pitching available. Besides, I don't think the Mets bullpen is as badly off as many other think it is.

If the Mets fail to get Delgado, they will have a very difficult time contending for the wild card in 2005. That doesn't mean they can't or won't contend in 2006 and beyond, but this team simply hasn't improved by the 20 games or so that would be necessary to turn last year's team into a playoff team.

There's really nobody else available that could replace Delgado's production at a cost of only money (i.e not prospects). The Mets will certainly be an exciting and much improved team without Delgado, but they'd probably be about as good as Philly or Florida. Unless of course Florida gets Delgado, in which case they're probably the wild card favorites in the NL.

Posted by: Eric Simon - January 24, 2005 at 03:29 PM EST

I wrote an article a few weeks ago about Delgado:

http://sabermets.weblogs.us/archives/022385.html

That's one reason I'm not worried about him.

Posted by: Eric Simon - January 24, 2005 at 03:32 PM EST

Does it seem to anyone else like Delgado's agent David Sloane is a little over his head with these high-profile negotiations?

http://www.nypost.com/sports/mets/38777.htm

The Sunday night episode where Sloane pre-emptively removed the Mets from the negotiations, followed by Minaya's discomprehension and this week's Mets re-entry, make for one of the weirdest free-agent negotiations in my memory. I'd assume any minimally competent agent would do his best to keep all the teams in the bidding till the end, even if he was *sure* his client didn't want to play for one of them. And it seems as though Delgado is genuinely interested in the Mets. So what was his agent doing throwing that Sunday-night hissy-fit?

Posted by: Anonymous - January 25, 2005 at 12:27 PM EST

Sloane is playing a strange game, if it works he looks good.

If the Mets walk away and the market collapses and Delgado gets 3/36, Sloane will look stoopid.

Posted by: m2c2c2 - January 25, 2005 at 12:40 PM EST

Let Delgado go off the Miami. If he and his agent want to play games with Minaya and the Mets I feel they should just say screw it. How about trading Heilman, Lastings Milledge and Victor Diaz for Todd Helton. I know he has a huge contract, he is unproven hitting at sea level, but on the upside he plays gold glove defense and the mets need that left-handed bat between Beltran and Piazza. He's three years younger than Delgado and definately worth the risk. It's giving up a lot, but the Mets really need a big bat. Plus Piazza has hinted that 2005 will be his last and Myself and every Mets fan would like to see him win a ring with the Mets. We're taking back New York! METS IN '05

Posted by: cuzzilovesdamets - January 26, 2005 at 01:13 AM EST

The problem is this: there are no bats available anymore that are big enough to put up the runs that would turn the 2005 Mets into a playoff contender. Delgado was the team's last best hope -- this year, at least -- of adding offense at a corner spot, where the team has been laughably weak for the last five years or so (remember Derek Bell and Benny Agbayani as starting RF/LF?). The current roster has the corners filled by 3B Wright (obviously a major talent but not yet ready to carry the team), 1B Mientkiewicz (assuming he rebounds, a replacement-level hitter), LF Floyd (man of glass, and starting to look old), and RF Cameron (mega-plus glove, sub-replacement-level hitter). Assuming they move Floyd and/or Cameron, the picture gets even uglier: Valent and/or Diaz as everyday corner outfielders, rather than bench guys, or Maggs limping after fly balls. That's a weak grab-bag of seventh- and eighth-spot hitters in the positions that should provide the meat of a good lineup. Where do they find the offense to make up this gap? In the 2006 free-agent market, is my guess. Get ready for an 85-win season: great compared to what we've been used to recently, but no chance at contention. And hope the team is far enough back at the All-Star break that we don't see another delusion-of-grandeur-driven, win-it-now Kazmir trade.

Posted by: Anonymous - January 26, 2005 at 02:22 AM EST

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