derisively-intellectual mets chatter

January 29, 2005

Mientkiewicz or Lee


The biggest complaint about trading Ian "The Blade" Bladergroen for Doug Mientkiewicz is that the Mets could have just signed Travis Lee, who is probably about 90% the player that Mientkiewicz is. He's a little worse defensively and a little worse offensively, but not much of either.

Bladergroen only has one solid offensive season under his belt, but he was the Mets #4 prospect (according to BA), and could very well have been the first-baseman of the future. Do you know who isn't going to be the first-baseman of the future? Craig Brazell. He has no range at first base and he has terrible plate discipline (98 BB in 2498 minor league AB, which is borderline criminal). Brazell will be, at best, a power lefty bat off the bench, and maybe a solid third-string first-baseman. At worst, he's minor-league roster fodder, maybe a throw-in for a later trade.

Brazell is a poor-man's Randall Simon, which is very poor indeed. Bladergroen is not a surefire major-leaguer, but he's already a better prospect than Brazell ever was. One great season at A-ball doesn't make a great player, but considering the fact that the Mets could have signed Lee for a couple million bucks and no prospects, I can understand why some people are upset.

If you try to tell me that Lee is just as good as Minky, I won't buy it. Minky has a good eye at the plate (339 BB in 2056 career ABs), and is one of the few best defensive first-baseman in baseball. I would probably buy:
Lee + Blade > Minky
but I guess that ship has sailed anyhow. Minky and Andres Galarraga will make a very nice platoon pair at first base, as Minky will benefit from days off against tough lefties, and the Big Cat can still hack it against the southpaws.


In other news, it appears as if Tyler Yates is going to miss the whole season with a tear in his rotator cuff. My feeling was that he was going to surprise a lot of people with his work out of the bullpen in 2005, but I guess we'll have to wait until 2006 to see that. It looks like the Mets are probably going to carry six or seven relievers, and here are my picks for that crew:

Looper
DeJean
Strickland
Koo
Fortunato
Seo
Heredia

Of course, the Mets could do much better than Heredia. I would much rather see Blake McGinley or Heath Bell get a bullpen spot. Jae Seo and Matt Ginter is also a toss-up. Fortunato or Strickland could easily not make the list above, though Minaya had Strickland for a few weeks in Montreal before shipping him to the Mets a few years back, so hopefully he'll give him a shot.


Sammy Sosa appears to be on his way to the Orioles in exchange for Jerry Hairston Jr. and prospects. The Cubbies will also pick up something in the neighborhood of $10 million, which is a very nice neighborhood. I think Sosa will have a very nice year at Camden Yards. If healthy, I predict .270/.360/.550 with 40 homeruns.


Comments

I understand fans concern with this deal from the standpoint that Bladergroen was the No.4 prospect according to some sources in our organization. But the fact that he is our No.4 prospect is more because of our system taking hits in trades and promotions. Don't get me wrong Blade is a nice player, but even with those numbers he didn't crack the top 20 in the Sally league. He has potential but a lot to prove. If I were the Mets and we were looking to deal Mientkiewicz(to be someones starting 1st basemen) I would want someone with at least potential coming back the other way. That's what the Sox got. If our minor league system was where it should be, which basically means minus the Zambrano/Benson trades Bladergroen probably doesn't make the Top 10. That's when our system was in the top 10 in baseball now its more like in the upper teens to low 20's area.

Posted by: Hojo4Life - January 30, 2005 at 08:09 AM EST

I don't disagree that it would take someone like The Blade to net Mientkiewicz. The argument is that the Mets could have had Travis Lee for zippo. Given that, the only decision to make is whether Minky is enough of a better player than Lee to warrant the Mets giving up Bladergroen.

As far as where Bladergroen would rank were the Black Friday trades not to have happened, you're probably looking more at #7 or #8. Kazmir would be #1, Peterson and Huber would be Top-6, when Phil Humber sliding in somewhere as well. That puts Bladergroen at #8, which is still pretty good. Of course, and to many fans' chagrin, Black Friday can't be undone, and The Blade was the Mets' #4 or #5 prospect (if you count Humber, which you should).

Posted by: Eric Simon - January 30, 2005 at 11:16 AM EST

True Eric, I was just trying to make the point that Balde isn't technically that much to give up to get Mienky. If we were talking Petit, like it was rumored earlier, then I would understand the argument against the trade more. Otherwise I think the trade was fine and would rather have Mienky instead of Lee. Obviously though I wanted Delgado, but can't get them all.

Posted by: Hojo4Life - January 30, 2005 at 04:17 PM EST

I feel Saber in many cases , does not take into account injurys , and that's a major handicapp when accessing a players value .

Does anybody want to compare Menk's totals against Lee's totals last year ? Of course not . Lee played in 15 games last year . Coming off a very serious injury , he is also older than Menk .

I would have prefered Valent \ Galarraga in there . Valent had a surprising 10 + rating in Range Factor , and an excellent power ratio , and Galarraga still hits leftys well .

But a choice between Menk and Lee . It's Menk , hands down . Younger , and injury free .

Posted by: Gsharpe - January 31, 2005 at 11:48 AM EST

Gsharpe,

Nice try. You're right that statistical analysis doesn't take injuries into account, but neither does any other kind of analysis, with the possible exception of your schoolyard comparison of who played more games last season.

If you bothered to do your homework, you would know that Travis Lee is about a year YOUNGER than Mientkiewicz, not older as you claim. I won't contend that Lee is better than Minky: he is not. He also isn't that much worse.

Eric Valent only had 89 at-bats as a first-baseman last season, so when looking at his numbers keep in mind that you're dealing with a very small sample size. I would guess that he would even out over time, and is probably a league-average first-baseman, range-wise. His pickin' skills over there, though, are probably well below average.

Posted by: Eric Simon - January 31, 2005 at 02:59 PM EST

Wow , I lost all credibility with my very first post here ! lol That's a record .

I don't know how I got the wrong impression of Lee . I thought he was much older . My deep apologies to everyone . Please don't get the impression I don't research . I do . It was a bad oversight on my part .

But , to be fair to me , I stand firm on the fact that Lee's injury has not come up in the comparisons laid out . That's just as bad an oversight as my own , in my humble opinion .

Big Saber fan , and a strong believer in Valent's offensive potential in the right platoon spot . I agree it's not a great defensive sample to draw on , but it's all I have . Before last year , he hadn't had an extended look .

Here's hoping my second post is better than my first . (smile)

Posted by: Gsharpe - January 31, 2005 at 04:49 PM EST

Gsharpe -

No worries. I agree that Lee is not an ideal candidate, but I also don't think that Mientkiewicz is a long-term solution. We're probably looking at a couple of years tops for either, so Lee would be a reasonable investment on one-year deals for that timeframe.

Again, Minky is the better player, no question, just not worth trading your only first-base prospect for, particularly when a player who is very similar can be had for nothing.

I like Valent's bat, too, and he should see plenty of action off the bench, as well as filling in for Floyd during his inevitable stints on the disabled list.

Posted by: Eric Simon - January 31, 2005 at 05:20 PM EST

This was my least favorite move of the year. We have paid a lot to put plus offensive players ain traditional defensive spots (Piazza, Reyes, Beltran). That is diluted by taking a spot that is usually offensively oriented (1b, and putting a below average (for the position) player in there. It is like Timo in RF.

Posted by: m2c2c2 - February 2, 2005 at 04:58 PM EST

SABERMETS INFO







SPONSORS


what's this?
CALENDAR

August 2005
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
  1 2 3 4 5 6
7 8 9 10 11 12 13
14 15 16 17 18 19 20
21 22 23 24 25 26 27
28 29 30 31      
SEARCH

BOOKS

Currently Reading:

Rob Bradford: Chasing Steinbrenner
Chasing Steinbrenner
Rob Bradford

Jeff Pearlman: The Bad Guys Won
The Bad Guys Won
Jeff Pearlman

Baseball Prospectus 2004
Baseball Prospectus 2004


Lawrence S. Ritter: The Glory of Their Times
The Glory of Their Times
Lawrence S. Ritter

On Deck:

Bill James: Whatever Happened to the Hall of Fame
Whatever Happened to the Hall of Fame
Bill James

Just Finished:

Jim Bouton: Ball Four
Ball Four
Jim Bouton

Pete Rose: My Prison Without Bars
My Prison Without Bars
Pete Rose
METS NEWS

ARCHIVES

RECENT ENTRIES

RECENT COMMENTS

Slammin' Sammy at Shea (9)
Peter wrote: Stanton is on the Yankees...What th...[more]

Spring Training Open Thread (5)
John E wrote: I agree with the injury concerns an...[more]

This Is Me Talking (5)
a2d wrote: I think we all came off well. I was...[more]

Bloggy McBloggerson (2)
bronxmetfan wrote: What is going on with Ayer Soler (t...[more]

Mientkiewicz or Lee (8)
m2c2c2 wrote: This was my least favorite move of ...[more]

METS INFO

METS IN PRINT

METS BLOGS

OTHER BASEBALL BLOGS

BASEBALL WEBSITES

BASEBALL COLUMNISTS

MLB PLAYER INDEX

TOOLS FOR FOOLS

REQUIRED READING

Goodbye To Some Old Baseball Ideas
Branch Rickey

Pitching And Defense
Voros McCracken

Pitching And Defense
Tom Tippett

The Sabermetric Manifesto
David Grabiner

Transaction Primer
Rob Neyer

Rule V Draft Explanation
Baseball America

... in progress ...
CREDITS

Powered by
Movable Type 2.661

Creative Commons License
This weblog is licensed under a Creative Commons License.