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Update on the Pups

John Sickels answered some mailbag questions today in Down On The Farm, one of them regarding Mets prospect Victor Diaz. You can read that article here. He also wrote about Mets third-base stud David Wright the other day.

What's Your GPA?

Earlier this week, Aaron Gleeman introduced a new metric that he quasi-narcissistically calls GPA, or the Gleeman Production Average. While hardly perfect (what metric is?), GPA serves a definite purpose in the sabermetric community. Though it is not as accurate as EqA, it is far simpler to calculate, and is a bit of an upgrade over OPS (OBP + SLG).

OPS, while clever and easily-derivable, has a major inherent flaw. It assigns equal weight to on-base percentage and slugging percentage, when it is quite clear that OBP is the more valuable asset. The most basic example to this effect is the following:

Team A and Team B both have an OPS of 1.000. Team A has an OBP of 1.000 and a SLG of .000 (meaning they walk every plate appearance), while Team B has an OBP of .333 and a SLG of .666 (they get a double for every three at-bats). In this scenario, Team B will score an awful lot of runs. Team A, however, will score an inifinite number of runs, as they will never make an out (barring baserunning gaffes). So, while both teams have an identical OPS, their production is significantly different.

Granted, this is an extreme example, but it does get the point across that OBP is more important to a team than SLG. But how much more important? Tangotiger, one of the more prominent sabermetric minds on the internet, wrote a couple of articles (this one and this one), where he breaks down the importance of OBP relative to SLG. He concluded that OBP is roughly 1.7-2.0 times more important than SLG.

Aaron decided to use 1.8 as the multiplier, and, in an effort to make the result more recognizable, divided the whole lot by four, to force a scale similar to batting average. So, the formula for GPA was born:


[(OBP * 1.8) + SLG] / 4

Aaron has posted a quick reference guide which provides 2003 GPA rankings by league, team, and position. Based on Aaron's work, I have put together a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet based on ESPN.com's Sortable Stats for all qualified MLB batters in 2003. The spreadsheet contains all of the regular hitting statistics (AB, R, H, 2B, 3B, HR, RBI, SB, CS, BB, BA, OBP, SLG, and OPS), as well as a column for GPA. I have also included a column for the team and for the league, so you can sort by those as well. The spreadsheet can be downloaded here (*fixed*). All qualified batters are included which, as defined by ESPN, are all position players who appeared in two-thirds of their team's games, and catchers who appeared in half of their team's games.

If you have any suggestions for improvements to the spreadsheet (i.e. additional columns), please let me know. I hope to have a spreadsheet including all players who appeared in MLB games this season soon, not just qualified players.

A brief tutorial on sorting in Excel can be found here.

Zito is Neato ... But Overrated

My blogging colleague Michael of Michael's Mets Ramblings commented today on a recent article by Joe Sheehan of Baseball Prospectus. I haven't read the whole article, since I can't afford $39.95 for a subscription to BP. However, here is the excerpt from Michael's post. If anyone would like to sponsor a BP subscription for me, I would be happy to provide additional commentary on some of their great articles.

Honestly, I think the A's traded the wrong left-hander. Lilly is a decent pitcher who is unlikely to be a star, and well-suited to the big outfield in Oakland. He's not very highly regarded, which you can probably tell by his being dealt straight up for Bobby Kielty. The A's got in the trade about what Lilly is worth.

The key in trading, though, is to swap a player whose perceived value is greater than his actual value, taking advantage of that gap to come out of a trade with more talent than you had before. Right now, there are few players in the game for whom the gap between perception and reality is greater than Barry Zito. Zito is just one year removed from a Cy Young Award, but he's been regressing ever since his best year, which was actually 2001.


Year  W-L  ERA    IP    BB/9  K/9   K/BB  HR/9
2000  7-4  2.72   92.2  4.37  7.58  1.73  0.58
2001 17-8  3.49  214.1  3.36  8.61  2.56  0.76
2002 23-5  2.75  229.1  3.06  7.14  2.33  0.94
2003 14-12 3.30  231.2  3.42  5.67  1.66  0.74


Pull away the Cy Young Award, the association with a great team and two other great starting pitchers, and the image of the flaky left-hander that doesn't get bothered by anything, and what you have is a pitcher who is heavily dependent on his defense and his ballpark, both of which have kept Zito's ERA down as his core stats regress. Subjectively, Zito has thrown a ton of pitches from ages 23-25, many of them sharp-breaking, joint-rending curveballs. He's the worst of the big three pitchers, but the only one with a gaudy trophy on the mantle. He's marketable, personable, and signed through 2006 at a total of about $16.5 million.

Zito is a mid-rotation starter with an ace's reputation. Trading him in the right deal--and the right deal would almost certainly be available--would be the kind of bold move that would solidify the team's spot atop the AL West for years to come. Think the Mets wouldn't have to consider a Zito-for-Jose Reyes trade? The Yankees are falling all over themselves to deal Nick Johnson and Alfonso Soriano this winter. Either would improve the A's; getting both--and would you put it past George Steinbrenner to trade both?--would make them a truly great team. Zito is a SoCal guy; both the Angels and Dodgers have good prospects within their system and new owners dying to be loved. The Cubs want a left-hander and appear to have no use for Juan Cruz or Hee Seop Choi.

There are any number of possibilities, all available because Zito has a superstar's name and a fourth-year player's  price tag. What makes a move like this sensible is that Zito isn't likely to continue being one of the league's top pitchers, and I have to believe a performance-conscious braintrust like the A's have sees the degradation in his performance and would concur with that idea. All they need to do is leverage that knowledge.

With Lilly gone, the A's have probably sealed off this route, but perhaps not. After all, they have Rich Harden, Justin Duchscherer and Mike Wood available right now, and Joe Blanton could be ready by midseason. Patching the hole left by Zito's absence would likely only be a problem for a short time, and the potential benefits, when you consider Zito's market value, are huge.

You can read Michael's response here.

I couldn't agree with Mr. Sheehan more. Hits and earned runs are largely defense-dependent statistics. The pitcher has a large measure of control over the number of walks, strikeouts, and homeruns he allows to the opposing team. All else is subject to the fancy of the fates and/or his defense. Zito's walk rate has been consistent over the past three seasons, and his rate is quite good. However, his K/9 and K/BB have dropped in each of the past two seasons, not a very good indicator of future success. He did a much better job this season keeping the ball in the yard (21% better to be exact), which is certainly a good sign. However, the strikeouts are a disturbing trend.

Strikeout rate is probably the single-most important indicator of future success. It certainly isn't ERA or hits allowed, which can fluctuate from year-to-year depending on park factors, defense, luck, rotation of the earth, etc.

I'm not overly concerned about which year was better, 2001 or 2002. Pedro Martinez should have won the Cy Young in 2002 anyway. Joe makes an excellent point about Zito's tradeability, though. I have soured on Zito, particularly because of his low strikeout rates. Pitchers who do not strike out a good number of hitters have a difficult time maintaining consistency in the big leagues. How many great pitchers are in the league now who don't rely greatly on their ability to retire batters without putting the ball into play? Imagine if you will, the Yankees without their ability to ring up strike three on opposing hitters. The Yanks had four pitchers in the top eight in the AL in K/BB (David Wells,#2, Mike Mussina,#3, Andy Pettitte, #7, and Roger Clemens, #8). With the Yankees infield, they would have led the league in runs against if they had a pitching staff made up of Barry Zitos.

Barry Zito is, in my estimation (and Joe's), at his peak value. He's coming off a pretty good season after a Cy Young winning one (even if it wasn't Cy Young-worthy), and there are a lot of teams that would give their left nut for that kind of "alleged" performance. While I doubt the Mets would even entertain the offer for Jose Reyes (at least I hope they wouldn't), the Yankees would almost certainly part with Nick Johnson. Barry Zito is what pitchers are supposed to turn into when they can no longer pitch like they used to, not when they are only 25.

The Pedro Salsa Heatwave is Here!

I'm not sure how long it's been around, but I just found out about a great new way to spice up your dominican dishes at home. It's Pedro Martinez' Southwest Corn & Bean Salsa. No joke. This is the most exciting thing since Kimo Bean introduced the now-defunct Benny Bean coffee, a partnership forged with former Met Benny Agbayani. Little did I know that PLB Sports offers a myriad of athlete-related food stuffs.



These are just a few of the many products available. Proceeds benefit a charity of choice for each athlete.


* * * * * * * * * *


Bob Hohler of the Boston Globe wrote an excellent article today about statistics and their use in baseball analysis, specifically as it pertains to the Red Sox organizational philosophies and what traits they are looking for in their new field manager.

The manager of the future -- maybe even the next manager on Yawkey Way -- may be expected to know all that about Martinez and more. Much more. About Martinez and every other player in the game.

In an era when computers have replaced people across the professional spectrum -- from typesetters to switchboard operators to assembly-line workers -- advanced technology is changing the way baseball is managed and played at a pace that makes Martinez's signature heater look like a lollipop pitch. And field tacticians who fail to embrace the movement may risk joining Grady Little among the ranks of the unemployed.

Let The Lunacy Begin

The 2003 MLB free agent season is officially underway (and has been for a few weeks now), and with it comes the inevitable barrage of bad signings. While these signings are usually perpetrated by my Mets, I'm happy to say that the first couple belong to other unfortunate teams. That's not to say the Mets won't make their own share, as their laundry list of rumored has-beens and never-will-bes includes the likes of Pokey Reese, Todd Walker, Luis Castillo, etc.

The first bad signing, and by "bad" I really mean "inexcusable" or "criminal", was the Astros inking Brad Ausmus to a two-year deal worth $4 million.

I'm having a difficult time deciding which is more insipid: the fact that Ausmus made $5.5 million this year or, after his sub-replacement-level performance these past few seasons, that someone, namely the team that suffered through those seasons, would decide that $2 million per year is a good investment in him.

I have heard that he is a good "character" guy which, while I can't quantify, I would imagine is much like saying a girl has a great personality in lieu of just calling her "ugly".

In an era where batting statistics are through the roof, we still don't expect much offensive output from the catching position. Never has this been more true than in Houston. Among major league catchers with 250 or more at-bats last season (of which there were 30), Ausmus ranked dead last in SLG and OPS (OBP % plus SLG %) and next-to-last in AVG (Brandon Inge).

Having lousy production at catcher is not a crime. However, having arguably the worst offensive catcher in the league while paying him like the seventh-best catcher in the league is ludicrous.

He did manage to draw 46 walks in 450 at-bats, which isn't half-bad. His .229 AVG and *gag* .291 SLG would give me nightmares if I were a fan in Houston. Well, the nightmares are going to last for another two years it would seem.


* * * * * * * * * *


The other bad move was Raul Ibanez signing a three-year deal with the Mariners worth $13 million. Not bad for Raul, mind you. Aaron of Aaron's Baseball Blog has already covered this topic, so I will just make a few points.

Ibanez was a 36th round pick by the M's in 1992 and played small parts of five seasons before signing with the Royals as a free agent in 2001. After playing part-time in 2001, he got 497 at-bats in 2002 and put together a fine season: 24 homeruns, 103 RBI, .883 OPS, .294 AVG.

A big concern is that he's going from an extreme hitter's park (Kauffman Stadium) to an extreme pitcher's park (Safeco Field), which typically doesn't favor batters who rely on slugging percentage to pad their OPS (as opposed to on-base percentage, which translates much better from park-to-park).

He's gotten on base consistently around 35% of the time over the past three seasons, and his slugging has fluctuated from .495 (2001) to .537 (2002) to .454 (2003). He's hit surprisingly well at Safeco over the past three seasons, posting a 1.316 OPS in 42 at-bats. It's a small sample size, so it's difficult to draw any meaningful information from it.

One can reasonably expect his power numbers to drop off in his new surroundings, though his on-base percentage shouldn't drift too far one way or the other. Ibanez is a fairly productive player, but is roughly league-average (or slightly better) for an outfielder/first-baseman type. He ranked 22nd in the AL among outfielders in Win Shares with 15, just ahead of Frank Catalanotto and just behind Eric Byrnes, two nice players who aren't going to see $4 million per-year anytime soon.

Plus, as Aaron points out, since the Mariner's signed Ibanez before the Royals had a chance to offer him arbitration, they automatically forfeit their first-round pick in next year's draft. Not a great way to kick off the Bill Bavasi regime.

Some People Still Don't Get It

Jayson Stark is totally clueless. In his latest nonsensical diatribe, Jayson pleads his case to the masses regarding what true "value" is. Not unexpectedly, he carts out the old standbys when suggesting how everyone should quantify this "value":

1) How have all the other voters defined it over the last 70 years? and
2) Where would this player's team have finished without him?

Jayson is not an old-timer, but he subscribes to oh-so-many of the old-timer baseball adages. I'm not saying he's wrong in his thinking because his opinion differs from my own. He's wrong for any number of other reasons, so why single one out? Here's an analogy that I just conjured up:

Let us suppose there are two men: one wealthy, one not so. The wealthy man is worth $1,000,000, while the poor man is worth a mere $1,000. Walking along one day, the wealthy man finds $90 on the sidewalk, and picks it up. Across town, the poor man finds $100 on the sidewalk, and picks it up. By Jayson's logic, the $90 is more valuable to the wealthy man than the $100 is to the poor man because, after all, he would still be poor without that extra $100. As we all know, the $100 is, at its simplest, more valuable by $10 than the $90. One might even argue that, on a different level, it's significantly more valuable, with the importance that it holds in the hands of the poor man. Why, the wealthy man has $90 many times over, while the $100 truly makes a world of difference to the poor man.

Analogy Key
Wealthy Man - First Place Minnesota Twins
Poor Man - Last Place Texas Rangers
$90 - would-be MVP candidate Shannon Stewart (though it's probably more like $50)
$100 - Alex Rodriguez

Hopefully it's starting to sink in. I generally enjoy Jayson's writing, but his current agenda leaves me scratching my head. He even rips his ESPN.com co-columnist Peter Gammons (amongst others) for not knowing "...what "valuable" means in this goofy world we live in." He goes on to use loaded arguments, such as this gem:

It tells us that hundreds of voters, over more than seven decades, almost always thought "valuable," as it applied to this award, meant a player's team at least won more games than it lost. Ideally, it contended for or finished first.

If we're wrong about that, then how come the voters for this award defined it that way for just about everyone else in the American League?

Of the 26 players besides A-Rod who got a vote, only two -- Anaheim's Garret Anderson and (hold your chuckles, please) Tampa Bay's Aubrey Huff -- played for teams with losing records.

Of course he doesn't mention that the main reason teams lose more games than they win is because they don't have very good players. This fact eludes Stark (or at least it eludes his argument), who is still campaigning door-to-door for Shannon Stewart. That he would take a cheap shot at Aubrey Huff like this ("...hold your chuckles...") is not only foolish, but misplaced. He fails to mention that Huff bested his choice, Stewart, in almost every conceivable category. He had a 3 point edge in OBP, a 96 point edge in SLG, a 99 point edge in OPS, a 4 point edge in AVG, 21 more homeruns, 34 more RBI, and an extra run. His RARP was a whopping 27 runs higher and he had 3 more Win Shares.

He concludes his sermon with this:

He won because nobody had any idea who to vote for. So they handed the best player in the league a consolation prize, a career-achievement award, a picturesque-numbers trophy, a We're Sorry You Never Won Before award. It was a magnanimous gesture and a fine little tip of the cap to a great, great player. Except that's not what the MVP award is. It's supposed to be about this year, about which team won and which teams didn't and about which player had the most to do with that.

Much as the two writers who left Hideki Matsui off of their ROY ballots because they felt the need to redefine the criteria for the award, Stark seems to want to re-christen this award the MVPWT, or Most Valuable Player on a Winning Team, which it is clearly not intended to be. As Rob Neyer points out in his rebuttal:

The Rangers finished in fourth place, which happens to be last place in the American League West. If they'd played in the American League Central, they'd probably have finished third, ahead of two or three other teams. Would that change Jayson's opinion of Alex Rodriguez's "value?" And if it would, then I submit that this house of cards, atop which Jayson's definition of "value" rests, has just collapsed under its own illogical weight.

That's better than I could have said it.

Bonds Still The Man

Just announced, Barry Bonds is once again the National league MVP. Not only was he the best player in the league, but I think he had the following going for him:

1) Many writers who had soured on Bonds in the past because of his stoic demeanor with the media may have softened their opinions of him, personally, with the recent passing of his father, Bobby Bonds.
2) He played for a first place (playoff) team, who some people still think means a damned thing.

Regardless, he was the 2003 Sabey Award winner, and now has the less-coveted NL MVP award to go with it. Better make room on the mantel.

The 2003 Sabey Awards Part 5: NL MVP

And so we come to the final day of the 2003 Sabey Awards. To recap:

The 2003 Sabey Awards Part 1: Rookie of the Year
The 2003 Sabey Awards Part 2: AL Cy Young
The 2003 Sabey Awards Part 3: NL Cy Young
The 2003 Sabey Awards Part 4: AL MVP



REGULAR METRICS

               Age  AVG  OBP  SLG   BB   K   XBH  HR  AB    R   RBI
Barry Bonds     39  341  529  749  148   58   68  45  390  111   90
Todd Helton     30  358  458  630  111   72   87  33  583  135  117
Javy Lopez      33  328  378  687   33   90   75  43  457   89  109
Mike Lowell     29  276  350  530   56   78   60  32  492   76  105
Albert Pujols   23  359  439  667   79   65   95  43  591  137  124
Gary Sheffield  34  330  419  604   86   55   78  39  576  126  132
Sammy Sosa      35  279  358  553   62  143   62  40  517   99  103
Jim Thome       33  266  385  573  111  182   80  47  578  111  131
Preston Wilson  29  282  343  537   54  139   80  36  600   94  141

ADVANCED METRICS

               Win Shares   EqA   RARP 
Barry Bonds     39.21 (2)   420  106.5
Todd Helton     33.52 (4)   345   73.3
Javy Lopez      29.73 (6)   337   64.4
Mike Lowell     23.04 (21)  299   41.7
Albert Pujols   41.13 (1)   362   90.8
Gary Sheffield  34.51 (3)   341   73.9
Sammy Sosa      21.77 (30)  303   38.3
Jim Thome       30.00 (5)   321   58.3
Preston Wilson  19.92 (39)  279   30.4

Okay, so I left Eric Gagne off the list. This was more out of laziness than any lack of merit on Gagne's part. He did put up more Win Shares (24.98) than three of the hitters here, but lets not kid ourselves, he wasn't going to win this award.

Here's a short list of others who won't be winning this award:

Javy Lopez - He broke the single-season record for most homers by a catcher, just edging out my drinking buddy Todd Hundley. This was an uncharacteristically productive season for Javier, who is usually just this side of worthless at the plate. His career year also came at a most opportune time, considering this was his walk year.

Mike Lowell - He had a very nice season, but wasn't even the best third baseman in the league (Scott Rolen), and might not have been the best player on his own team (Pudge Rodriguez).

Sammy Sosa - Come on. The guy was 30th in Win Shares, and only put up a .358 OBP. Great player, but didn't have a great season. Plus he missed some time RE: Corked Bat.

Jim Thome - Great pickup by the Phillies. The AVG was a twenty point drop from his career mark, but you can't complain about a .958 OPS in his first year in the league.

Preston Wilson - Nuff said.

While this is really a two horse race, I need to at least mention Todd Helton and player/agent Gary Sheffield. These guys actually put up very similar seasons in terms of Win Shares, EqA, and RARP. Sheff would probably get the nod because he doesn't play half of his games in a Batting Cage and he plays a (slightly) more demanding defensive position.

Poor Albert Pujols. The man is only (allegedly) 23 years old, and has already put up three MVP-caliber seasons. And, thanks to MLB's indentured servant rules, he only made $900k this year, and will continue to make chicken feed for the next three seasons. Unless he gets indicted on cocaine charges in the Dominican Republic or we find out he's actually 42, he stands to see a hefty raise come 2007. If he played in the American League, he'd run away with the award this year. Unfortunately for him, God happens to play in the National League.

Barry Bonds put up his worst year since 2000, when he posted a Neifi Perez-esque 1.128 OPS. He still managed to put up an otherworldly 1.278. Barry Bonds' production continues to boggle the mind. He led the league in OBP, SLG, OPS (duh), walks, intentional walks, BB/PA, BB/K, groundball-to-flyball ratio (not sure how impressive this is, but he led the league in it nonetheless), RC/27 (runs created per 27 outs), isolated power, secondary average (I'm just going through ESPN.com's sortable statistics at this point), etc. The only knock against him this year is that he played only 130 games. This explains why Pujols held a slight edge in Win Shares, but it won't be enough to deny Bonds his third straight (sixth overall) MVP award.

2003 Sabey Choice: Barry Bonds
Predicted MLB Winner: Barry Bonds

The 2003 Sabey Awards Part 4: AL MVP

If you missed them, check out the last two days of Sabey Award coverage:

The 2003 Sabey Awards Part 1: Rookie of the Year
The 2003 Sabey Awards Part 2: AL Cy Young
The 2003 Sabey Awards Part 3: NL Cy Young

I've been looking at each of the candidates and evaluating them statistically. I give the Sabey to the player I feel is most deserving, and also make a prediction as to who will actually be chosen for the award.



NORMAL METRICS

                 Age AVG  OBP  SLG   BB   K   XBH  HR  AB    R   RBI
Garret Anderson  31  315  345  541   31   83   82  29  638   80  116
Bret Boone       34  294  366  535   68  125   75  35  622  111  117
Carlos Delgado   31  302  426  593  109  137   71  42  570  117  145
Nomar Garcia...  30  301  345  524   39   61   78  28  658  120  105
David Ortiz      27  288  369  592   58   83   72  31  448   79  101
Jorge Posada     32  281  405  518   93  110   54  30  481   83  101
Alex Rodriguez   28  298  396  600   87  126   83  47  607  124  118
Manny Ramirez    31  325  427  587   97   94   74  37  569  117  104
Shannon Stewart  29  307  364  459   52   66   59  13  573   90   73
Frank Thomas     35  267  390  562  100  115   77  42  546   87  105

ADVANCED METRICS

                    Win Shares  EqA  RARP
Garret Anderson     25.26 (11)  298  38.0
Bret Boone          29.71 (3)   313  66.0
Carlos Delgado      32.21 (2)   338  70.1
Nomar Garciaparra   25.19 (12)  296  55.1
David Ortiz         15.09 (68)  316  40.2
Jorge Posada        27.75 (5)   318  58.4
Alex Rodriguez      32.51 (1)   326  79.1
Manny Ramirez       27.59 (7)   341  70.7
Shannon Stewart     18.43 (40)  283  23.1
Frank Thomas        22.82 (19)  318  51.8
* explanations: win shares, eqa, and rarp

1) How can a player on a last-place team be the MVP? They would have finished last without him.
2) He struggled late in the season, when the games "really" matter.
3) He's smelly.
4) He doesn't play for the Yankees.
5) He makes too much money.

Those last three were filler, but you get the point. The first two arguments are not only misguided, but are downright ignorant. Dan Werr writes impressively about this in his AL MVP article at baseballprimer.com. The purpose of statistical analysis as it pertains to baseball players is to take the player out of the context in which he performed, and attempt to universalize his performance for comparison purposes. Is it Alex Rodriguez' fault that his team is lousy and he didn't play "meaningful" games in September? Are we to believe that Jorge Posada's performance in late-season games against also-rans like the Orioles and Devil Rays was somehow more "valuable" than A-Rod's in games against much tougher teams like the A's and Mariners? As you and I both know, the value of a win in September is roughly equivalent to the value of a win in April (or March, as in this season). So rather than debate the merits (or lack thereof) of these vagaries, I will instead make an attempt at determining, simply, which player is the best. The "Best Player" and the "Most Valuable Player", in my estimation, are rephrasings of the same conclusion.

Jayson Stark's non-sensical ramblings notwithstanding, Shannon Stewart is not a legitimate candidate for MVP. For that matter, David Ortiz and Garret Anderson aren't either. Anderson actually had more Win Shares this season than Nomah, who also won't be bringing home the hardware. Nomar and Ortiz were probably 3-4 on their own team this season, behind Manny, Trot Nixon, and probably even Bill Mueller.

I've always been a big fan of Frank Thomas the ballplayer. Even though Frank Thomas the human being has had less-than-stellar moments (like when he said his $10 mill annual salary was insulting), I've always been impressed by his talents. Before OBP and SLG were the talk of the town, The Big Hurt was putting up 1000 OPS seasons consistently. The guy was a beast for most of the 90's, and returned (mostly) to form this season after a couple of lackluster campaigns. His average isn't what it used to be, but he still walks a ton and can hit the ball a long way. Not the MVP though.

With Mike Piazza's recent string of mediocre numbers and painful groin injuries, Jorge Posada has become the marquee offensive backstop in all of baseball. Javy Lopez had a ridiculous season offensively, but I'd still take Jorgie for the long haul (though he's 32 already). He's got pop, he's a switch-hitter, and you've just gotta love a catcher who gets on base at a .400 clip. Though he plays a demanding defensive position, he's no great shakes in the field. He still passes balls like Dan Marino and, while I have heard that his throwing has improved, I certainly can't tell from his stats (.282, .290, .280 CS% the past three seasons).

Bret Boone, despite having a very large head, is quite a player. He's a gold glover at 2B, which makes his offensive production that much more impressive. Any time you can get significant production AND great defense from one of the big three (C, SS, 2B), you've got a great player on your hands. I don't know whether it's the THG or the Starbucks or if something just clicked, but ever since coming to Seattle, the man has been a hitting machine. He could take a few more walks, but other than that, he's the best second-baseman in the game. Not the MVP.

It should come as no surprise that C-Del, M-Ram, and A-Rod were in the top five in the AL in OPS, RARP (Runs Above Replacement batter at Position), runs scored, and SLG. This is the cream of the crop, folks. It should also come as no surprise that these three players rank at or near the top in annual salary (Rodriguez and Ramirez are 1 and 2, with Delgado not far behind). These are the kind of offensive forces that you build a franchise around (albeit with more reasonable price tags). Rodriguez is the youngest and the only of the three on the better side of 30. Ramirez had the highest average of the three, and had an OBP just a shade higher than Delgado. Rodriguez was tops in the league in SLG. A-Rod also swiped 17 bases in 20 attempts for an 85% success rate. What really separates these three behemoths from each other is their performance relative to others who play their position. LF and 1B are the two least demanding defensive positions (according to Bill James' defensive spectrum, not counting DH), while shortstop is the single-most demanding position (not counting catcher, which is considered a special case). The defensive spectrum looks like this:

[ DH - 1B - LF - RF - 3B - CF - 2B - SS - C ]

Offense is more highly concentrated on the left end of the spectrum, while defense is more highly concentrated on the right end. It's much harder to find a productive offensive player at 2B or SS than it is at 1B or DH. It is typical for a ballplayer to move leftward along the spectrum, though it is rare for one to move rightward. With any luck, Mr. Piazza will be making a great leftward shift in the coming season, though he may end up shifting even further for an AL team. The defensive spectrum attempts to illustrate how similar offensive production is much more valuable from a shortstop than it is from a left-fielder or a first-baseman. This difference is reflected in a player's RARP. While Delgado and Rodriguez put up similar offensive numbers this season (Delgado held the edge in most, including OPS), A-Rod's performance is more impressive because his was done while playing a position that is less inclined to do so.

2003 Sabey Choice: Alex Rodriguez
Predicted MLB Winner: Alex Rodriguez

David Wright

With a short break in the MLB Awards announcements, here is a snippet from John Sickels' column at ESPN.com about the Arizona Fall League, specifically Met 3B-to-be David Wright:

A well-kept secret, Wright had a solid season in the Florida State League, and has followed that up by hitting .341 with a .433 OBP and a .488 SLG in Arizona. Of particular note are 13 walks and just eight strikeouts in 82 at-bats. He has power and a good measure of refinement at the plate. Wright is also a very good defensive third baseman, more reliable than most players his age, and featuring a strong arm and decent range. I think he is an excellent prospect, and he could see Shea Stadium sometime late in 2004.

The 2003 Sabey Awards Part 3: NL Cy Young

If you missed them, check out the last two days of Sabey Award coverage:

The 2003 Sabey Awards Part 1: Rookie of the Year
The 2003 Sabey Awards Part 2: AL Cy Young

I've been looking at each of the candidates and evaluating them statistically. I give the Sabey to the player I feel is most deserving, and also make a prediction as to who will actually be chosen for the award.

Today I will look at the National League Cy Young award.



Player               Age  IP     K    BB  HR  ERA   WHIP   K/9   K/BB  HR/9
Eric Gagne           27   82.1  137   20   2  1.20  0.69  14.98  6.85  0.22
Kevin Millwood       28  222.0  169   68  19  4.01  1.25   6.85  2.49  0.77
Russ Ortiz           29  212.1  149  102  17  3.81  1.31   6.32  1.46  0.72
Mark Prior           23  211.1  245   50  15  2.43  1.10  10.43  4.90  0.64
Jason Schmidt        30  207.2  208   46  14  2.34  0.95   9.01  4.52  0.61
John Smoltz          36   64.1   73    8   2  1.12  0.87  10.21  9.13  0.28
Billy Wagner         32   86.0  105   23   8  1.78  0.87  10.99  4.57  0.84
Woody Williams       37  220.2  153   55  20  3.87  1.25   6.24  2.78  0.82
Randy Wolf           27  200.0  177   78  27  4.23  1.27   7.97  2.27  1.22
Kerry Wood           26  211.0  266  100  24  3.20  1.19  11.35  2.66  1.02

Unlike the American League race, where every player was a viable candidate for the award, there are a few stinkers here. Despite racking up 21 wins, Russ Ortiz wasn't very impressive this season (or in previous seasons, really). He has benefited much from playing for great teams (Braves, Giants), many of which played in PacBell, a great pitcher's park. His ERA is better than average for the league, but the guy walked 102 batters in 212 innings. What up with that? You might be saying, "Yea, well Kerry Wood walked 100 batters in 211 innings." True, but Mr. Wood also led the league in strikeouts, while Russ Ortiz had a lower strikeout rate than all-but-one of the candidates here. Which brings us to...

Woody Williams. Woody put up very good numbers in the first half, posting an ERA just a shade over 3.00 (3.01 to be precise). My man fell off the wagon (or maybe it was back on the wagon, given his performance in recent years) in Mid-July, though. He put up a bloated 5.23 ERA post-All-Star, whilst giving up 11 homers in only 86 innings.

The next two to leave are teammates. One pitched in the All-Star Game, the other just became a free agent and will likely command more money over more years than a middle-of-the-road starting pitcher should be hauling in. If you guessed Randy Wolf and Kevin Millwood, give yourself a gold star. Perhaps someone can look this up for me, but I would venture a guess that these are the two worst teammates to ever be candidates for this award in the same season. They both had ERA's over 4.00, they both had K/BB in the lower 2's, and while Wolf's K/9 is good, he gave up a slew of long balls this year: almost 1.25 jacks-per-nine. I pity the poor team who signs Millwood to a five-year, $60 million deal (please don't be the Mets, please don't be the Mets).

Billy Wagner (Wags) is a great pitcher with great stuff. He struck out more batters per nine innings than either John Smoltz or Mark Prior. His K/BB is good but not great for a closer. He's a bit prone to the tater, having given up 8 in 86 innings. Nevertheless, he was a huge pickup recently for the Phils, and should help put them over the top in the NL East this coming season. However, he happened to pitch during the same season as two of the best closers of all time (yes, I know it's early to say it, but it's hard to argue). Alas, Wagner won't be winning the Cy Young this year (or any other year, really).

Kerry Wood had another monster strikeout season, leading the bigs in both K's, K/9, and, unfortunately, almost leading the majors in walks (that particular honor belongs to Victor Zambrano). Wood could very well win a Cy Young award one day, that day just isn't today (or any day this week). He's not nearly the best pitcher on his own team, let alone in the whole league.

Now let's get down to it. We have four pitchers left: two starters, two relievers. John Smoltz had a brilliant year for the Braves, and actually posted a better ERA and K/BB than Eric Gagne. However, it's hard to overlook the man who broke the modern-day K/9 record (previously held by one Armando Benitez, when he K'd 14.77 batters per nine innings in 1999, splitting time between setup and, when Johnny Franco went on the DL, closer). Gagne was flat-out sick this year, notching an ERA of 1.20, a WHIP of 0.69, and a HR/9 of 0.22. That's just over 1/5 of one homerun every nine innings. Did I mention he set the record for most K's per nine innings? The man struck out nigh 15 batters for every 27 outs he recorded. He blew zero saves this season (one if you count the All-Star Game), though I don't find saves all that indicative of a pitcher's performance. This was quite possibly the best season for a relief pitcher ever, putting Dennis Eckersley's '92 Cy Young season to shame in virtually every category.

Deciding on the best starting pitcher between Mark Prior and Jason Schmidt is really a toss-up. Jason Schmidt had a better WHIP, but that was likely due to the Giants' infield defense being significantly better than the Cubs'. Their walks were about the same, homers were about the same, IP were about the same, ERA were about the same. See where I'm going with this? The main thing that really separates these two pitchers' performances is Prior's strikeout rate, which is a good bit better than Schmidt's. That's not to take anything away from Schmidt, who struck out more than a batter-per-inning, a great mark for a starting pitcher. But Prior struck out 37 more guys and, subsequently, had a better K/9 and K/BB ratio.

If Mark Prior were in the American League this season, he would have been my choice for AL Cy Young. It's unfortunate for him that he was not, because I think Eric Gagne was a better pitcher this year. Prior had a phenomenal year, and undoubtedly (barring injury) has one, probably multiple Cy Young awards in his future. He's only 23, and is already one of the best pitchers in the game. If you were to ask me who I would rather have on my team, the choice wouldn't even be close. Prior would be my #1 pick among all pitchers in the majors, but that's a different story. Gagne was obscenely good this year and, although he was probably babied a bit (as are most closers not named Mariano Rivera), he is the 2003 Saby Award winner for National League Cy Young.

2003 Saby Choice: Eric Gagne
Predicted MLB Winner: Eric Gagne

The 2003 Sabey Awards Part 2: AL Cy Young

Yesterday, in The 2003 Sabey Awards Part 1, I took a look at the American League and National League Rookie of the Year races.

Today I will break down the American League Cy Young candidates.



All of these pitchers had very good or great seasons, but only one can win the award (duh).

                Age  IP     K   BB  HR  ERA   WHIP  K/9   K/BB  HR/9
Bartolo Colon   30  242.0  173  67  30  3.87  1.20  6.43  2.58  1.12
Keith Foulke    31   86.2   88  20  10  2.08  0.89  9.14  4.40  1.04
Roy Halladay    26  266.0  204  32  26  3.25  1.07  6.90  6.38  0.88
Tim Hudson      28  240.0  162  61  15  2.70  1.08  6.08  2.66  0.56
Esteban Loaiza  31  226.1  207  56  17  2.90  1.11  8.23  3.70  0.68
Pedro Martinez  32  186.2  206  47   7  2.22  1.04  9.93  4.38  0.34
Jamie Moyer     40  215.0  129  66  19  3.27  1.23  5.40  1.96  0.80
Mark Mulder     26  186.2  128  40  15  3.13  1.18  6.17  3.20  0.72
Mike Mussina    34  214.2  195  40  21  3.40  1.08  8.18  4.88  0.88
Andy Pettitte   31  208.1  180  50  21  4.02  1.33  7.78  3.60  0.91

There's only one relief pitcher in this group, and he isn't going to win. Keith Foulke had a great year as a closer for the Oakland A's, racking up 43 saves (overrated), while posting the lowest ERA and WHIP and the highest K/9 among the candidates. Unlike typical modern-day closers, Foulke actually pitched more than one inning on 21 occasions this season (Eric Gagne did so only 11 times). Unlike Gagne's candidacy in the NL, where the argument could be made that there aren't any ridiculous starting pitchers, the same can't be said of Foulke.

Bartolo Colon, while fat, was not the best pitcher in the American League. His rotundness notwithstanding, he posted the highest HR/9, third-highest WHIP, and second-lowest K/BB. He pitched the second-most innings, but gave up too many homeruns and did not strike out enough batters.

Forty-year-old Jamie Moyer is the oldest by six years, but that's not why he won't win the award. His HR/9 was very good, but his WHIP was only lower than Andy Pettitte's, and he simply doesn't ring up enough K's. He's a great pitcher, and probably will be for a few more years (I can't believe I just said that), but his K/9 and K/BB leave much to be desired. He was likely helped out considerably by the Mariners' defense and their four gold gloves. If he put that many balls into play with the Mets' defense behind him, he wouldn't have been nearly as "lucky".

Andy Pettitte had been a very good pitcher for the Yankees over the years, but he struggled away from the Stadium, posting an ERA a half-run higher on the road this season. He also gave up many more homeruns (15 to 6). This was just a flukey season for him, though. Right? Hardly. Over the previous three seasons (2000-2002), Pettitte's ERA was more than three-quarters of a run worse on the road (4.20 to 3.46), and his walks were way up (75 to 48) in a similar number of innings (268 to 275.2). Any ballclub interested in signing Pettitte to a megabucks contract may want to keep these in mind, especially if he'll be pitching his home games at Ten-Run Field in Houston. He wasn't even the best pitcher on his team, let alone the best in the league.

Along those lines, I'm also going to eliminate Mark Mulder. He had a great year for the A's, but wasn't quite as good as teammate Tim Hudson. They posted similar numbers, with Mulder posting better strikeout rates and Hudson giving up fewer homeruns. At the end of the day, I give the nod to Hudson because he posted comparable numbers over many more innings (53.1 more to be exact).

While I'm pickin' off A's, I'll dismiss Hudson too. Though slightly better than Mulder, his K/9 was not great and his K/BB was fairly poor. He had the second-best HR/9 here, but that just wasn't enough.

The Moose has been let loose. Mike Mussina put up another great season in pinstripes, and was overshadowed again (think Roger Clemens in 2001) by a teammate with lesser stats but more wins. I'm also going to cut Esteban Loaiza. I don't really have great reasons for cutting either of these guys, except that they weren't quite as good as Pedro and Halladay. They both put up tremendous numbers, and either could have won this award if the competition weren't so stiff.

Halladay or Pedro. Pedro or Halladay. This is a tough one, guys. Other than innings pitched and KK/B, Pedro dominated this race in almost every important category. His K/9 was awesome for a starting pitcher, his ERA and WHIP were microscopic (Halladay's WHIP was almost as low), and his HR/9 was otherworldly. The freakin' guy gave up seven homeruns in almost 190 innings! Despite Halladay throwing 80 more innings and posting the best K/BB of any starting pitcher in the bigs, I have to give this one to Pedro. Halladay will probably win the real award, but Pedro gets the Sabey.

2003 Saby Choice: Pedro Martinez
Predicted MLB Winner: Roy Halladay

The 2003 Sabey Awards Part 1: Rookie of the Year

Ladies and Gentlemen, I am proud to bring you the first annual Sabey Awards, where I pick my winners of MLBs fall awards. The candidates are those suggested by MLB.com's Awards page. I guess these are considered the official candidates, though quite a few of them are borderline at best. Quite frankly, I had to click on the "R. Johnson, TOR" link just to find out that the "R" stood for "Reed". My ignorance to the lesser-knowns notwithstanding, I will attempt to evaluate each player objectively via rudimentary statistical analysis. So, without further ado...

American League

When I think of the AL ROY candidates, the usual names come to mind: Hideki Matsui, Angel Berroa, Jody Gerut. MLB.com evidently needed ten candiates for each award, so we also get Joe Somebodys like Craig Monroe and the aforementioned Reed Johnson. Nevertheless, each player will be given equal consideration, as I attempt to not let my Big-Cityness cloud my objectivity. I am going to compare the hitters to each other and the pitchers to each other, and then decide on a winner based on the results of those comparisons.

The Hitters



Below are the pertinent stats for each hitter...

Player          Age AVG OBP SLG BB  K  XBH HR  AB  R   RBI SB/CS
Rocco Baldelli   22 289 326 416 30 128  51 11 637  89   78 27/10
Angel Berroa     25 287 338 451 29 100  54 17 567  92   73 21/5
Jody Gerut       26 279 336 494 35  70  57 22 480  66   75  4/5
Reed Johnson     26 294 353 427 20  67  33 10 412  79   52  5/3
Hideki Matsui    29 287 353 435 63  86  59 16 623  82  106  2/2
Craig Monroe     26 240 287 449 27  89  42 23 425  51   70  4/2
Mark Teixeira    23 259 331 480 44 120  50 26 529  66   84  1/2

Okay, let's start weeding them out. Craig Monroe, despite his 23 HR and 70 RBI, is just this side of useless. That .287 OBP is downright Rey Ordonez-esque (that is, if you disregard his uncharacteristic 2003 campaign where he hit .316 in 117 AB, albeit with only two walks). His slugging is middle-of-the-pack here, but he's old for a non-Japanese rookie at 26, and shouldn't really be in consideration for this award.

Reed Johnson isn't going to win this award either. His .353 OBP is nice, but is largely contributed to by his .294 AVG. 20 BB in 412 AB is almost as bad as the Baldelli kid.

Speaking of Baldelli, can a brother get a base-on-balls every once in awhile? 30 BB in 637 AB is actually worse than Choppin' Broccoli himself. He did manage to swipe 27 bases, but at the cost of 10 caught-stealing (73%, a bit higher than the break-even point). He's essentially Alphonso Soriano without the power numbers which, as we know, isn't much at all.

To narrow it down to a nice even (odd) three, I'm going to show Mark Teixeira (or as my buddy Steve calls him, Tex-ee-era) the door. His 26 bombs are the most among the candidates, and he has the second-highest slugging among this group, but his .259 AVG and .331 OBP aren't going to cut it with the Beane-counters here.

Jody Gerut outslugged everyone here, besting $7-million-per-year Hideki Matsui by almost 60 points. However, he only reached base 33% of the time.

That leaves us with The Big Two. Hideki Matsui, the heavy favorite to win this award at the onset of the 2003 campaign, and Angel Berroa, who most people hadn't even heard of (myself included) when 2003 kicked off. Berroa bested Matsui in slugging by 15 points, which is not much more than negligible. Berroa stole 21 bases in 26 attemps, which is a terrific 80% success rate. I am not a big fan of the stolen base, but if you can swipe them at an 80% clip, be my guest. Their homeruns were very similar: 17 to 16 in favor of Berroa. Matsui held a big lead in RBI, but that's largely (read: entirely) a product of the Yankees sluggardly sluggers clogging up the bases in front of him. When you have guys like Jason Giambi (.412 OBP) and Jorge Posada (.405 OBP) hitting in front of you, it's not that hard to rack up the ribbies. Matsui gets the edge in OBP by 17 points. While this is similar to Berroa's edge in SLG, OBP is considered to be much more valuable than SLG. The ability to get on base is, quite simply, the ability to avoid making outs. As we know, there is no commodity as precious to a team as outs are.

The Pitchers



I'm not really sure why I'm even looking at these. None of them ever get any press for this award, and it's already almost 3am. But I will forge ahead.

Player             Age  IP   K  BB HR ERA  WHIP K/9  K/BB HR/9
Lance Carter        28  79.0 47 19 12 4.33 1.15 5.35 2.47 1.37
Mike MacDougal      26  64.0 57 32  4 4.08 1.50 8.02 1.78 0.56
Francisco Rodriguez 21  86.0 95 35 12 3.04 0.99 9.94 2.71 1.26


In the race to decide who the best AL pitcher to not win the ROY this year, there are really only two horses here. Lance Carter is basically a bum, and has no business on this list. For that matter, let's make it a one-horse race really quickly. Mike MacDougal had a nice season, with a very good K/9 and a superb HR/9. However, K-Rod was better in almost every category, save HR/9. His WHIP was razor-thin, his K/9 was terrific, and his K/BB was very good as well. Plus, he's only 21, so despite the rest of the Angels team falling off the face of the earth this season, Francisco Rodriguez was far-and-away the best rookie pitcher in the American League.

The Final Answer

This was a harder decision than I thought it would be. For most of this season, I have felt that Hideki Matsui's candidacy was based largely on his overvalued RBI total. Compound this with the fact that I am a Yankee-hater, and I could have very (very, very) easily picked Berroa here. However, I think the correct choice should be Matsui. He demolishes Berroa in BB/K and BB/AB and, despite his questionable eligibility, he is my choice for 2003 American League Rookie of the Year.

2003 Saby Choice: Hideki Matsui
Predicted MLB Winner: Hideki Matsui

National League

As with the American League, I will divide the candidates into Hitters and Pitchers, which will allow for more reasonable comparison. Also like the AL, there are a number of players here who are mainly filler so that MLB could run the list to ten.

The Hitters



While the American League was short on pitching in this race, the Natioinal League is a bit short on hitting. Each of these four guys had nice rookie campaigns, though.

Player          Age AVG OBP SLG BB  K  XBH HR  AB  R   RBI SB/CS
Marlon Byrd     26  303 366 418 44  94  39  7 495  86   45 11/1
Miguel Cabrera  20  268 325 468 25  84  36 12 314  39   62  0/2
Jason Phillips  27  298 373 442 39  50  36 11 403  45   58  0/1
Scott Podsednik 27  314 379 443 56  91  46  9 558 100   58 43/10

One player is clearly the class of this list, and I will get to him in a minute. There are no duds on this list (aka Craig Monroes), as all four of these candidates put up very nice seasons. Miguel Cabrera, a mid-season callup from AA, has by far the highest ceiling, in particular because of his age (he's six years younger than the next youngest player here). He had the highest SLG here, and drove in the most runs of the group, despite having the fewest number of at-bats. However, he had a lot of trouble getting on base, hitting only .268 with an OBP of .325. His walk rate isn't bad considering his age, and he is a potential superstar for the Marlins.

Marlon Byrd looked like a bust two months into the season. He was hitting a Pat Burrell-esque .193 at the end of May, with a pathetic .538 OPS. He turned it around nicely, though, finishing at .303 and .784, respectively. His plate discipline is decent (44 BB in 495 AB), and he made the most of his speed, swiping 11 bases with only one caught-stealing. He didn't hit for much power, but that's somewhat expected from your leadoff hitter.

Jason Phillips was a huge surprise for the Mets. He was called up in mid-May for good, splitting time between catcher and first-base after Mike Piazza tore his groin. He's old for a rook at 27, but he hit just shy of .300, and showed impressive plate discipline, posting the second-highest OBP here at .373. His 11 homers are good for a catcher but shabby for a 1B. All told, his BB rate will probably get better with more experience, but he needs to hit the weight room to add some pop to his bat.

My top choice among the hitters is definitely Scott Podsednik. He had the highest AVG and OBP, hitting .314 and walking just about once every ten at-bats. He was also very successful on the bases, stealing 43 bags in 53 attempts (81% success rate). He scored 100 runs on a lousy Brewer team. He's no pup (27 years old), but he was a pleasant suprise for the Beermakers.

The Pitchers




Player             Age  IP    K  BB HR ERA  WHIP  K/9  K/BB HR/9
Brad Lidge          26  85.0  97 42  6 3.60 1.20 10.27 2.31 0.64
Horacio Ramirez     23 182.1 100 72 21 4.00 1.39  4.94 1.39 1.04
Jeriome Robertson   26 160.2  99 64 23 5.10 1.52  5.55 1.55 1.29
Oscar Villarreal    21  98.0  80 46  6 2.57 1.29  7.35 1.74 0.55
Brandon Webb        24 180.2 172 68 12 2.84 1.15  8.57 2.53 0.60
Dontrelle Willis    21 160.2 142 58 13 3.30 1.28  7.95 2.45 0.73


This is the group that most people expect the Rookie of the Year to come from, with most people putting their money on the D-Train. Before getting to him, lets pare this group down by a few.

The two worst pitchers here are Jeriome "Don't Call me Jerome" Robertson and Horacio Ramirez, particularly Robertson. His ERA was over 5, WHIP was over 1.5, and he gave up a ridiculous 23 taters in only 160.2 innings. I'm not really sure why he's a candidate, other than the obvious fact that he is actually a rookie. His stats are not very good, and he does not project well at all. Ramirez is a similar case, but he strikes me as a league-average pitcher who may be able to stick around simply because he's a lefty. He doesn't strike out a lot of guys, he gives up a lot of walks, and he's prone to the gopherball. He is only 23, but he smacks of Glendon Rusch to me.

Oscar Villarreal pitched well for the D-Backs, but really doesn't compare favorably to Brad Lidge, who can straight-up bring it. This guy was overshadowed in Houston by fireballers Billy Wagner and ex-Met Octavio Dotel, but he's got a cannon of an arm, and projects very well as a dominant closer-to-be. His K/9 and HR/9 are downright silly, and he kept his BB at a manageable level. These are very important, defense-independent stats, that are usually excellent indicators of a pitcher's ability to succeed year-in and year-out. However, it would be tough to give the award to Lidge with the year that another pitcher had.

Dontrelle Willis had a phenom-like first half, posting an ERA of 2.08 while giving up only three homeruns and fanning 79 batters in 82 innings. He was the toast of the town, and the early favorite to win this award. He must have hit a wall sometime in July, though, because he really fell apart in the second half. His 4.60 ERA was more than double his first half mark, while giving up 10 longballs in 78 innings. After soaring out to a 9-1 record at the All-Star break, he notched a mediocre 5-5 down the stretch. So, while his sideways cap and funky delivery were very entertaining, he was not the best rookie pitcher in the National League.

That honor goes to the oft-overlooked Brandon Webb. He bested Willis in almost every important category: IP, K/9, K/BB, HR/9, WHIP, ERA. This matchup wasn't even really close.

So we have our best hitter in Scott Podsednik. We have our best pitcher in Brandon Webb. Who's going to win? Neither of them, but that won't stop me from picking Webb as the Should-Be NL ROY. While Curt Schilling and Randy Johnson spent much of the year on the disabled list (and Johnson spent the rest of the time pitching like Reed Johnson), Brandon Webb was pitching like a #1 starter. I remember his debut as a starter, when he stepped in for the Big Unit to embarrass the Mets to the tune of 10 strikeouts and three hits. I haven't heard him mentioned in any Cy Young discussions, but he is certainly a viable candidate for that award too.

2003 Saby Choice: Brandon Webb
Predicted MLB Winner: Dontrelle Willis

I'll be back tomorrow with my analysis of the American League Cy Young candidates.

Mets Prepare To Take Giant Step Forward

I was reading the sports sections today, and among the numerous articles detailing the Mets hiring of two (soon to be three) front office super-scouts (good move) and their interest in free-agent closer Keith Foulke (bad move), I read the following in the New York Post:

In a signal of the new wave of baseball thinking, the Mets are looking to hire a statistical analyst to join their front office.

Several teams already employ a stats maven, most notably the Boston Red Sox with the legendary Bill James. The Toronto Blue Jays and, of course, the Oakland A's also utilize statistical-based analysis.

"We've gone through an extensive search process," Mets GM Jim Duquette said. "Our plan is to have a statistical analyst to come on and be a resource or a tool in our evaluating process."

This sounds like the kind of forward-thinking I would expect out of Sabermetrically-savvy teams like Oakland, Boston, and Toronto. But my New York Mets? Pinch me, I think I'm dreaming.

This same edition of the Post also reports that the Mets might be interested in acquiring Preston Wilson from Colorado. Why? Who the hell knows. Columnist Mark Hale suggests that the move "would make tremendous practical sense for the Mets, for a number of reasons". Firstly, it would allow the Mets to piss away large sums of money on a mediocre ballplayer (SEE: Mo Vaughn). Secondly, it would rid the Mets of their promising young players:

"...the Rockies would likely want several young position players (such as Victor Diaz or Ty Wigginton), and perhaps a young arm or two (think Grant Roberts or even Aaron Heilman)."

And we get to pick up the $20 mill left on his contract over the next two years? I believe it's safe to assume that Mark Hale will not be the third super-scout, nor will he be the Mets new statistical analyst. Peep these stats:

260/316/479 with 25bb/78k and 34 xbh (15hr) in 292ab

Yessir, those are Mr. Wilson's road stats from 2003. The only way the Mets make this deal is if Colorado takes all of Roger Cedeno's contract ($10 mill over two years), and they pick up $5 mill of Wilson's contract. This is a guy who didn't even put up an 800 OPS on the road last year, and we're going to give up prospects AND pay off his albatross contract? Fafafafafa.

Mets In Print

The Mets made it official yesterday, formally naming Rick Peterson their new pitching coach/savior. He will be given carte blanche to do as he pleases with the Mets entire organizational approach to pitching. They also made several other coaching changes, "promoting" Matt Galante to assistant bench coach and bringing up AAA manager Bobby Floyd to be third base coach for the big club.

A few interesting notes from today's papers:

Jorge Arangure Jr. of the Bergen Record says: "[John] Franco pitched well after his return, compiling a 2.62 ERA in 34.1 innings."

John Franco gave little indication that he deserves a roster spot on any big league team. I give Johnny a ton of credit for coming back from T.J. surgery at his age, and he's really been a soldier for this team, weathering the "Worst Team Money Can Buy" clubs, as well as losing his job outright as Mets closer to Armando Benitez. However, for a team that is rebuilding and trying to get a good look at as many young ballplayers as possible, I just don't see Franco as a valuable asset to this club. We already have overpaid veteran middle-relievers (SEE: David Weathers, Mike Stanton). While Franco likely won't command much in salary ($1 mill tops), I feel that the roster spot could be better utilized by the likes of Tyler Yates and Orber Moreno.

Apparently, both the Mets and Yankees are interested in light-hitting, light-fielding Todd Walker. After arguing with my friend Mike, a Yankee fan, over who DIDN'T want Walker more, I tried my best to digest this news. Walker's agent Alan Meersand apparently acknowledges his client's defensive shortcomings, as quoted in today's Bergen Record:

"Don't you think his offense more than makes up for the fact he makes a few errors?"

Walker was on-par defensively with human wind-tunnel Alfonso Soriano, with very similar fielding percentages and range factors. I only make this comparison because Soriano is largely regarded as a terrible fielder, which he, in fact, is. Walker's agent went to far as to say that his client would be looking for a three-or-four-year deal as well as a raise over his 2003 salary of $3.45 mill. I'd say he was insane, except that Im sure at least one team would be willing to cough up that much. Plus, the other day I actually saw someone describe Walker as a "raker". I'm unfamiliar with Walker's landscaping prowess, but I am very familiar with his exploits at the plate. Take a look at these two lines:

283/333/428 with 48bb/54k and 55 xbh (13hr) in 587ab plus 1/2 sb (50%)
260/344/421 with 48bb/34k and 34 xbh (15hr) in 404ab plus 28/40 sb (70%)

The top line is Mr. Walker. The bottom line is Eric Young, though I used only his stats with Milwaukee last season (I left out his SanFran stats). Eric Young will be lucky to get a one-year deal worth $2 mill. Granted, he's 36 and Walker is only 30. I wouldn't sign either of them for the years OR money that Walker is looking for, but I'd sooner sign Young for one-year at $2 mill than Walker at anything near his asking price.

The headline in today's New York Post: METS TARGET CLOSER KOCH

I'm not a big fan of spending large sums of any commodity (money, prospects, prosthetic limbs etc.) on a "proven closer". However, it may make sense (as it always does) to borrow a page from Billy Beane's book. As I originally suggested for David Weathers, making someone the Mets dedicated closer for half or all of next season could pay big dividends. Just as Billy Beane has done with Jason Isringhausen and Billy Koch, and this year with Keith Foulke, one great year out of a closer can net either:

1) Prospects in a trade at the deadline
2) Draft pick compensation when the closer signs with another team

Foulke hasn't brought either of these things...yet. He may bring a high draft pick, or may even resign with the A's. Billy Koch brought Keith Foulke, and Izzy brought a couple of good draft picks. Koch has one year left on his contract at, gulp, $6.375 mill. He had a lousy year last season:

5.77 era, 1.64 whip, 53 ip, 7.13 k/9, 1.50 k/bb, 1.6 hr/9

The hr/9 is deplorable, but the k/9 rate is still good. He lost his closer job last year, and for good reason. However, he had a great year in 2002 with the A's under the guidance of Rick Peterson, and there's no reason to think he can't put up good numbers next year at Shea. The White Sox have understandably soured on him, and would probably give him up for nothing. I bet they could even be conned into taking Stormy Weathers' $3.6 mill off of our hands.

Last but certainly not least, Tom Glavine is trying to woo Kevin Millwood to the Mets. That Millwood is still considered a front-of-the-rotation starter is beyond me. Millwood is a #3 starter, and may even be a #2 on a crappy staff like the Mets'. To pay him #1 starter money ($60 mill over five years) would be almost as foolish as paying a 37-year-old $45 million over four years. Thanks, but no thanks Tommy. Stop doing us favors and just pitch.