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Keiths In The Hall

Keith Hernandez was one of the pillars of the mid-eighties' Mets resurgence that culminated in the 1986 World Series Championship. He had previously won the World Series in 1982 with the Cardinals before being sent to New York in a lopsided trade for pitchers Neil Allen and Rick Ownbey. With the upcoming Hall of Fame voting, Hernandez will appear on the ballot for the ninth time. Even if he is elected, he would likely be enshrined as a Cardinal, having played most of his career in St. Louis. That would leave Tom Seaver as the only player in the Hall actually wearing a Mets cap.

To this point, the arguments for Hernandez' candidacy have not been compelling enough to garner the 75% vote necessary for election. For my analysis, I am going to defer, as I usually do, to a method introduced by Bill James in his book The Politics of Glory.

This method involves a series of questions that James calls "The Ken Keltner List". The questions are somewhat subjective in nature, but can be considered objectively with a little help from statistics. So, without further adieu, The Ken Keltner List on Keith Hernandez.

Was he ever regarded as the best player in baseball? Did anybody, while he was active, ever suggest that he was the best player in baseball?

No. He tied for first in voting for the 1979 MVP award with Willie Stargell, but received more first place votes (10-4), and had a significant lead in OBP (.417-.352). He also finished second in 1984 (Ryne Sandberg) and fourth in 1986 (Mike Schmidt). However, I doubt anyone ever considered him the best player in baseball, or even one of the five-or-ten best.

Was he the best player on his team?

Yes. Clearly in 1979 and 1984, and quite possibly 1986, though Darryl Strawberry was also very good that year.

Was he the best player in his league at his position?

Yes. Defensively, he won the Gold Glove 11 straight seasons from 1978-1988. Offensively, he was the best in 1979, 1980, 1986, and was close in 1984.

Was he the best player in baseball at his position?

Yes and No. Defensively, he was the class of baseball for a decade. Don Mattingly was the best first-baseman in the AL in the late eighties and early nineties, but that was mostly after Hernandez' best days were behind him. Offensively, 1979 was the only season where Keith was the best first-baseman in baseball.

Did he have an impact on a number of pennant races?

In 1982 and 1986 for sure. He didn't contribute much to the Mets postseason run in 1988. Two is a number, isn't it? Yes.

Was he a good enough player that he could continue to play regularly after passing his prime?

Yes. Keith turned 30 after the 1983 season, and put up an average OPS+ of 131 over the next six seasons.

If he retired today, would he be the best player in baseball not in the Hall of Fame?

Maybe. He was probably better than Sandberg, though Jim Rice was probably better with the stick. He's definitely better than Andre Dawson, and maybe even Paul Molitor. I'm going to make this one a "No", but it's close.

Are most of the players who have comparable triple-crown stats in the Hall of Fame?

No. He always hit for a high average, but his HR and RBI are not going to get him elected.

If he retired today, would he be the best player at his position not in the Hall of Fame?

Donnie Baseball was very similar. They had comparable career OPS (.820 for Keith, .829 for Donnie), though Keith holds a slight edge in career GPA (.282-.279). Until Mark McGwire is eligible, I'll say Keith is the best first-baseman out there.

Are the player's totals of career approximate value and offensive wins and losses similar to those of other Hall of Famers?

Hernandez is 57th all-time in offensive winning percentage among players with at least 8,000 plate appearances. Of these players, around 10 are hall-eligible and not inducted. He only has 1265 runs created in his career, which does not compare well with others.

Is there any evidence to suggest that the player was significantly better or worse than is suggested by his statistics?

No, I wouldn't say so.

How many MVP-type seasons did he have? Did he ever win an MVP award? If not, how many times was he close?

One award, four top-ten finishes.

How many All-Star type seasons did he have? How many All-Star games did he play in? Did most other players at his position who made the Hall of Fame play in a comparable amount of games or have a comparable amount of All-Star seasons?

He played in five All-Star games, in 1979, 1980, 1984, 1986, and 1987. Not bad, but not really HOF-caliber.

If this man were the best player on his team, would it be likely that the team could win the pennant?

Iffy. While his leadership and glovework were top-notch, he wasn't really a big bopper, and would probably need some help. That being said, he was the best player on the Mets in 1986, and we know how that turned out.

Hernandez' candidacy is no doubt hurt by his lack of power. He only hit 162 homers in his career, though his career .384 OBP is very good. Ozzie Smith was elected on his first try mostly as a result of his ridiculous defense. Hernandez' defense wasn't as good, but his offense was definitely not as bad. He was excellent with the leather, was a very good hitter for a decade, and helped his teams to two World Championships. Longevity is also a factor here, though. Hernandez played in parts of 17 seasons, but he only had 10 seasons with 500+ at-bats.

That said, Hernandez is one of the two best first basemen (currently eligible) who are not in the Hall of Fame and, while he's not a slam-dunk, he is a borderline case for sure. I don't think he stands a good shot at being elected this year or any year by the BBWAA, though the Veteran's Committee could give him the nod sometime down the road. Once Mark McGwire becomes eligible, however, Hernandez' case will be weakened significantly.

Give Me A Break

Writing five blogs a week is hard work. Well, not necessarily hard, but definitely tiring. That said, SaberMets is going to take a short holiday break, but will be back on Monday with fresh blogs. I'm going to try to get to some of your blog requests, too. So, if you have a topic you would like to see analyzed and/or written about on SaberMets, shoot me an e-mail.

Happy holidays everyone!

Javy Holidays

I don't suppose that anyone ever prospered as much from a free agent walk year as Javy Lopez has. That's not to say that other players haven't seen bigger paydays when they hit the market, because they have. Had Lopez hit free agency a year earlier, he might have had trouble finding work.

In 2003, Lopez set the single-season record for homeruns by a catcher with 42, breaking Todd Hundley's record of 41. He had the second-highest OPS ever for a catcher at 1.065, trailing only Mike Piazza's 1.070 he put up in 1997. In terms of slugging percentage, Lopez obliterated Piazza's 1997 then-record mark of .638 by ripping pitchers to the tune of a .687 SLG. Lopez' previous career-high SLG? .540 in 1998.

After six moderately-to-very productive seasons at the plate from 1995-2000, Lopez fell off a cliff in 2001 and was clinically dead in 2002. He had the fifth best OPS among major league catchers from 1995-2000, and was just 20 points out of third. After averaging 26 homeruns from 1996-2000 (not counting 1999 when he played only 65 games), he dropped to 17 in 2001 and plummeted to 11 in 2002. His .671 OPS in 2002 was actually lower than his SLG in 2003.

He's never walked much, though his walk totals have been very consistent over the course of his career. Since 1996, he's had no more than 40 walks and no fewer than 26 walks in any full season (100+ games). He's fairly prone to the strikeout, though, averaging 102 whiffs per 162 games. There's also that whole thing about Greg Maddux not pitching to him, which no one has ever really explained to my satisfaction. It wasn't a huge deal, as most catchers typically sit once every five games or so. It was just a bit unsettling why one of this era's best pitchers wanted no part of Javy Lopez' catching abilities.

Beyond his horrific 2001 and 2002 and his otherworldly 2003, Lopez has been a solid hitter throughout his career:

per 162 games

HR   RBI   AVG    OBP    SLG    OPS    GPA
30    97  .287   .337   .502   .839   .277

Considering the dearth of productive catchers these days (or any days), this is probably a good signing for Baltimore. However, Lopez is already 33 years old, and catchers typically don't put up career years when they're his age. That said, the O's definitely needed to do something to keep up with the rest of the American League East, what with the Devil Rays trading for Geoff Blum and all.

Love Me Non-Tender

Yesterday, 58 Major League Baseball players were not tendered contracts by their former teams, releasing them into the wild unknown of the free agent market. Non-tendered players can still negotiate with their old teams, but they are free to negotiate with the other 29 teams as well. There are a lot of warm bodies here, many of which are adept at one thing or another. Some of them are even pretty good at baseball. You just have to know what to look for.

Jay Payton: The Mets waited a long time for Payton to live up to his hype. He was drafted out of Georgia Tech, where he was roommates with Nomar Garciaparra. He had a promising rookie season in 2000 where he finished runner-up in the Rookie of the Year voting to Rafael Furcal, hit .291 and belted 17 homeruns. He also had went an unthinkable 5-for-16 in stolen bases (31% success rate). He's spent an exorbitant amount of time on the disabled list in his career in both the minors and majors. He put up a deplorable .298 OBP in 2001 in 361 AB, and was hitting .284 in 2002 before being shipped to the Rockies. In 47 games for the Rocks that year, Payton tore it up, going .335/.376/.606 with his new team. He wasn't able to keep up that torrid pace, but he did post very good numbers in 2003 with Colorado, posting a solid .866 OPS (.287 GPA) with 28 homers and 89 RBI. Sure, a lot of that was Coors field. But he actually hit more homers on the road (15-13), and posted a decent if not sparkling .813 OPS. He's a hacker, so he'll never walk much but will put the ball in play. He doesn't have a great bat for a corner outfielder, and he doesn't have much of an arm, but he always hustled when he was with the Mets, and he would make a decent third outfielder for a bad team or a good fourth outfielder for a good team.

Randall Simon: As far as hackers go, he might rival Kevin Mitnick for the world's biggest. He's averaged one walk every 22.5 at-bats over the course of his career. The upside is that he doesn't strike out much either -- only once every 11.3 at-bats. As a comparison, Whiffy McStrikeout walks once every 22.1 at-bats and K's once every 4.7 at-bats. The difference is that Soriano does a lot more damage when he makes contact than Simon does. Simon has a very good career batting average at .297. His .743 career OPS (.256 GPA), while not completely useless, has no business taking up 300+ at-bats in any major league lineup, particularly one with post-season aspirations. He's got enough pop and makes good enough contact to be fairly valuable as a primary pinch hitter for most teams. His defense is pretty bad, though he can whack a sausage with the best of them.

Danys Baez: This guy will find work. He made an absurd $5.125 million last season to close games for the Indians, but would be a good pickup for a bad team looking for a stopgap closer (*cough*) or a good team looking for a decent setup man. He had a very good 7.85 K/9 ratio last season with 2.87 K/BB. He gave up a few too many longballs, surrendering nine in only 75.2 innings. He somehow lost nine games coming out of the pen, while saving 25 in 35 chances (71% SvPct). He's not an ace reliever by any stretch, but he'll help some team out in 2003.

Braden Looper: He's picked up 41 saves over the past two seasons in 50 chances (82% SvPct), and fits into a similar category as Baez. His strikeout rate is okay (6.25 per nine innings last season), and he did a good job limiting homeruns, coughing up only four in 80.2 innings. His 29 years are three more than Baez, though both could go for around $1-$1.5 million to any number of teams. I'd consider taking a flyer on either of them.

A number of non-tenders will still resign with their old teams, they just might not have been able to come to terms on a deal in time for yesterday's deadline. There are no premier guys here, but certainly puzzle pieces that can fill in a team's holes. For a complete list of non-tenders, check out ESPN.com.

The Future

For the past three years we had heard the rumblings about a wiry kid from the Dominican Republic who was going to change the face of the New York Mets. They said he had a cannon for an arm. They said he was lightning on the bases. He taught himself to switch hit just a couple of years earlier. He was the most promising Met prospect since Darryl Strawberry. His name was Jose Reyes, and he was the future.

In Spring Training of 2002, an 18 year old Reyes said he would be taking Rey Ordonez' shortstop job. Rey-Rey heard the footsteps ... we all heard the footsteps. As the Mets struggled mightily through that 2002 season, the footsteps were getting louder. The Mets were terrible, a last place team with a first place payroll. They were old, they were underachieving, they were history. There was a glimmering of hope, they said, because the future was on its way.

On June 10, 2003, the future finally arrived. A day before his 20th birthday, Reyes made his big-league debut, going 2-4 with a double and two runs scored. The success was short-lived, though, as he went one-for-his-next-sixteen. The future had hit a bump in the road. He finished June batting .205 with one walk and an OPS of .553. This wasn't the way it was supposed to play out. It wasn't supposed to be like this.

The first chance I had I went to see the kid play at Shea. As the souvenir vendor retrieved my #7 t-shirt from the shelf, he asked, "Why does everybody like this guy? He's hitting .220." My response, all I could think of as it had been etched into my brain, was, "He's the future, as they say."

And so he is. Before an ankle injury ended his season on my birthday (August 31st), Reyes had put together a very solid rookie season. He had a 17-game hitting streak, scored 47 runs in only 69 games, and stole 13 bases in 16 attempts, an 81.3% success rating. His .769 OPS should impress you. It doesn't, you say? How many 20-year old shortstops have put up an OPS that high? Try three.

                  Year    OPS
Alex Rodriguez    1996  1.045
John McGraw       1893   .866
Arky Vaughan      1932   .787
Jose Reyes        2003   .769
Edgar Renteria    1996   .757
Travis Jackson    1924   .754
Tony Kubek        1957   .716
Travis Jackson    1923   .712
Woody English     1927   .690
Garry Templeton   1976   .675

In only 69 games this season, Jose Reyes compiled 12 win shares, which is equal to 4 team wins. Extrapolate those win shares over 162 games and you've got 28. 28! He's 20 years old! 20 win shares is considered an all-star season, while 30 win shares is considered an MVP-caliber season. Here's what the rest of the league's premier shortstops and second-basemen (he's playing second now) did in 2003, pro-rated over 162 games.

                     WS
Alex Rodriguez       32
Marcus Giles         31
Bret Boone           31
Jose Reyes           28
Alfonso Soriano      28
Edgar Renteria       26
Nomar Garciaparra    26
Derek Jeter          25
Jeff Kent            25
Miguel Tejada        25
Jose Vidro           21

Reyes was actually percentage points ahead of Alfonso Soriano. And he's only going to get better folks ... much better. He may never hit 40 homeruns, but he'll hit 20, steal 40 bases, win gold gloves, wreak delicious havoc. The future is now, his name is Jose Reyes. Learn it.


* * * * * * * * * *
If you missed any of this week's blogs, please check them out.

Monday: Catching The Ball ... And Other Great Mysteries Of Life
Tuesday: Rule V Grab Bag
Wednesday: Closing The Deal
Thursday: Johnny Be Good

Johnny Be Good

Sorry MLB Alumni Association, you're going to have to wait another year for John Franco. It's equal parts class and foolishness that led the Mets to bring Franco back for his 14th season in New York and 20th overall. With my rose-colored glasses safely locked away in their case, I can say with all honesty that John didn't look like he had much left in the tank in 2003. Granted, he had just come back after more than a year out of action recovering from Tommy John surgery. That he made it back at his age is a marvel of science and longevity. However, for the first time, he really looked his age out on the mound.

I'm a John Franco fan. He's never been my favorite player, probably not even close. But I have a lot of respect for the man who has really been a soldier for the Mets. He arrived in New York in 1990 in a swap of two of the elite closers at the time. In exchange for Randy Myers, the Reds sent eastward a 30-year old Brooklynite name John Franco. That year, the Mets were still in decent shape from their late-80's run. The fun didn't last long, though, as the Mets fell apart very quickly thereafter.

Franco was here for the lean years (1991-1992), where the Mets went 142-174, a .449 winning percentage. After that, he was here for the really lean years (1993-1996), where the Mets went 254-326, a .438 winning percentage. He was here for the late-nineties mini-renaissance (1997-2000), where the Mets went 367-282, a .565 winning percentage. And, of course, we'll never forget the downward spiral that followed and continues to this day. Franco has been here through it all and, believe it or not, was a very good pitcher for most of it.

Over the course of his 20 years in baseball, Franco has averaged more than seven strikeouts per nine innings. He sports a career ERA of 2.74 and is second on the all-time saves list with 424 (Lee Smith is the leader with 486). He has a career save percentage of 92%, which is astounding. To put it into perspective a bit, here are some of today's top closers along with their career save percentage:


Player                Sv    BS    Sv%
Rod Beck             286    55   83.9
Jason Isringhausen   130    24   84.4
Ugeth Urbina         206    37   84.8
Armando Benitez      197    35   85.0
Jose Mesa            249    43   85.0
Robb Nen             315    54   85.3
Kaz Sasaki           129    22   85.4
Keith Foulke         143    24   85.6
Billy Wagner         225    38   85.6
Troy Percival        283    45   86.3
Mariano Rivera       283    44   86.5
Trevor Hoffman       352    44   88.9
John Franco          424    37   92.0
John Smoltz          110     9   92.4
Eric Gagne           107     4   96.4

Eric Gagne is off the charts, but Smoltz is considered by many (including myself) to be right behind Gagne in terms of the best in the game right now. Both of these pitchers have been closing games for two seasons (2+ for Smoltz, who saved 10 games in 2001 after, believe it or not, Tommy John surgery), while John Franco has been a closer for two decades. As good as Smoltz has been, he would need to maintain the level of success he's achieved thus far for another 18 seasons in order to equal Franco's feat.

While he was on the disabled list in 2000, his interim replacement Armando Benitez flat-out dominated National League batters. So much so that when Franco returned from the DL he was informed that he wouldn't be getting his job back as he had anticipated (and been told). As usual, Franco handled the demotion with professionalism and dignity that too many of today's players seem to be lacking (think: Jose Guillen). That year and the next (2001), Franco, who was already 40, posted two of the best K/9 of his entire career (9.05 and 8.44, respectively), while picking up 37 holds as the primary setup man for Benitez.

In addition to his impressive career strikeout rate, he has limited opposing batters to 0.57 homeruns per nine innings. As if his pitching wasn't enough to hang his hat on, Franco's altruism is seemingly endless. He works tirelessly for a number of charities, including assisting New York City firefighters since 9/11, and was named honorary "Fireman of the Year" in 2003 by Engine Company 10. He's been a great ballplayer and a better person, and if the Mets want to let him leave this old ball game on his own terms, I don't have any problems with that.

Closing The Deal

As reported yesterday (espn.com), the Rockies will make Shawn Chaconthe defacto ace of their 2003 staff, their closer in 2004. The Rockies will follow a growing baseball trend made famous most recently by the dominating success of the Braves' John Smoltz and the Dodgers' Eric Gagne.

Smoltz, as you'll recall, was a terrific starting pitcher before arm injuries and necessity led him to the bullpen. He won the NL Cy Young in 1996, the last of six consecutive Cy Youngs awarded to Braves (Tom Glavine won in 1991, with Greg Maddux taking home the hardware from 1992-1995). As a precursor to his conversion to closer, Smoltz pitched in relief of Kevin Millwood in Game 6 of the 1999 NLCS against the Mets. With the Mets trailing by three runs in the top of the 7th, Mike Piazza launched a three-run, opposite-field bomb that tied the game at the time. The Mets went on to blow two leads after that before finally succumbing on a bases loaded walk by Kenny Rogers in the 11th.

While Smoltz made the successful transition from great starting pitcher to great closer, Gagne took a different road. Not that he didn't turn into a great closer, which he did, as his 2003 Cy Young award might attest to. As a starting pitcher, however, he was quite bad. He posted ERAs of 5.15 and 4.75 in 2000-2001 while pitching in one of the best ballparks for pitchers. His two biggest problems as a starter were walks and the longball. He gave up around four walks per nine innings, which will get you into a lot of trouble when you consider his propensity for taters. In 253 innings in 2001-2002, Gagne gave up 44 homeruns, which comes out to more than 1.5 per nine innings.

Gagne the closer and Gagne the starter were almost polar opposites in regard to these two categories. Gagne the closer handed out less than two walks per nine innings, around half of his alternate-universe counterpart. That, however, pales in comparison to his home run differential. As a closer the past two seasons, Gagne has surrendered 8 homeruns in 164.2 innings, or 0.43 ding-dongs per nine innings. Gagne the starter gave up almost four times that amount!

Closers have a huge advantage over starters for two main reasons, both of which are related to the amount of time they spend on the mound. When you're a starting pitcher, a baseball game is much like a marathon for runners (or a love-making session for Sting). They are not afforded the luxury of blowing their proverbial wad right away, as they are expected to pitch 6 innings or more. A pitcher whose fastball may top out in the mid-nineties may be forced to throw most fastballs in the low-nineties to preserve energy and arm strength for his entire start. Breaking balls that might typically have more bite or cut may flatten out more often because of overuse. Closers, on the other hand, are the baseball-equivalent of the two-pump chump. They're in, they go full-throttle for an inning, and then they hit the showers. They are at a significantly lower risk of wearing out because they pitch for such a short period of time each game.< br />
The other natural advantage that closers have is that, since they typically only pitch an inning per game (particularly nowadays), batters have much fewer opportunities to get accustomed to them. In an average game, each batter will see the starting pitcher around three times, which gives them time to study their delivery, their tendencies, and get their timing down. When it comes to facing a team's closer, the batter has no such luck. Particularly with the unbalanced schedule, teams in other divisions or the other league will likely only see a particular closer once or twice per season. Plus, a good closer may only see 3 or 4 batters per appearance, so there's certainly no guarantee that a batter will even get to face that pitcher.

Pitchers with good stuff who struggle as starters stand a good chance of becoming decent relievers or, in some cases, great closers. What does all this mean for Shawn Chacon? Well, much like Gagne, Chacon has been a pretty mediocre starting pitcher. He got a lot of press early in 2003 because he went 11-4 before the All-Star break. Of course, he had a 4.27 ERA in those starts and walked 40 batters in just over 105 innings. He went 0-4 with a 5.68 ERA after the break, and people stopped talking about him. True, he pitched his home games in the third-worst park for pitchers (that's right, Kauffman Stadium and Olympic Stadium were actually worse). Unbelievably, Chacon was a good deal better in Coors Field than he was on the road. His ERA was almost half a run better at home (4.38 to 4.86). One of the main reasons for his mild success this season was that he kept homeruns to a minimum, after giving them out like candy the past two seasons. What makes this turn of events more ridiculous is that he actually had a lower ground ball to fly ball ratio this season than in the previous two. That is to say that he gave up more fly balls but was probably lucky enough that not too many of them cleared the wall.

For his career, Chacon has a lofty 5.10 ERA, a K/BB ratio of 1.43 (not good), and a HR/9 of 1.36. He is only 25 years old, and could show improvement. That being said, I don't think this is a terrible move by the Rockies. If he completely tanks as a closer, he certainly won't be the first. However, if the Rockies end up with a 9th-inning stud on their hands, there will be plenty of nay-sayers eating crow.

Rule 5 Grab Bag

Every winter, Major League Baseball holds its annual Rule 5 Draft, where teams have an opportunity to select players from other organizations who are left unprotected from their respective 40-man rosters. The rules governing a player drafted in this manner are as follows:

* The drafting team pays the plundered team $50,000 for a player drafted
* Any player drafted must remain on the drafting team's major league club all season
* If the team fails to do this, they must offer the player back to his original team for $25,000

The last two rules only apply to the Major League Phase of the draft. There is also a minor league phase which consists of a draft of Triple-A players and a subsequent draft of Double-A players.

Not every team has to participate in the drafting, but every team is allowed to be drafted from. The biggest success story in the recent history of the draft is Jay Gibbons of the Orioles, who has hit 51 homeruns and driven in 169 runs over the past two seasons.

The Mets were more active than most teams this year, drafting a total of four players while surrendering two players. Here is a quick analysis of the more prominent picks:

Mets Got

Major League Draft: Round 1 - Frank Brooks, LHP, Pittsburgh
In a pre-arranged deal, the Mets traded Brooks to Oakland for a player to be named later. This has to be someone from Oakland's 40-man roster. There's a good chance it might be a former Met, either Marco Scutaro or Matt Watson, who were both claimed by the A's after the season ended.

Brooks was originally a starter in the Phillies organization. He was drafted out of Florida State in the 13th round in 1999. He was moved to the bullpen in 2002, and has done a pretty good job there. In 157.1 innings has a reliever, Brooks has struck out 153 batters while walking 63. His homerun rate was terrific, giving up only 11 over that span, good for a 0.63 HR/9 rate. He's already 25, but he seems like the kind of bargain-basement guy Billy Beane likes coming out of the bullpen. He could provide league-average relief for league-minimum dollars.

Here's hoping the PTBNL is Marco Scutaro.

Triple-A Draft: Round 1 - Eric Valent, OF, Cincinnati
Another guy who was originally drafted by the Phillies, Valent was a 1st round pick in 1998 out of UCLA. He's 26 already, and it'd be a stretch to call him a prospect at this point. He posted a pitiful .308 OBP in 2003 for Scranton/Wilkes-Barre of the International League (AAA) to go along with a not-so-hot .367 SLG. He showed some pop in the lower-level minor leagues, hitting 20, 22, and 21 homers from 1999-2001. It looks like AAA pitching has done him in, as he's really fallen off a cliff in the last two seasons. He has 47 games of Major League experience, notching a razor-thin .403 OPS. Jim Duquette says that Valent will compete for a bench spot in Spring Training. He can't possibly mean with the big club.

Additional Picks
Lance Caraccioli, LHP, Cleveland
Bryan Edwards, RHP, Milwaukee

Mets Lost

Major League Draft: Round 1 - David Mattox, RHP, Cincinnati
Mattox was drafted by the Mets out of Anderson College. An 11th round pick in 2001, Mattox is 23 and pitched last season for Binghamton of the Eastern League (AA). Baseball America said the following regarding his selection:

A converted infielder in college, Mattox didn't have much mileage on his arm when the Mets originally drafted him out of Anderson (S.C.) College in the 11th round in 2001. He looks like a polished pitcher, though, as he operates with four quality pitches, including a low-90s fastball and a plus changeup, and command. "His arm works good, he has a good delivery and four pitches," Mets scouting director Jack Bowen said. "On the right night, he has four average to above major league pitches and an outstanding change."

He doesn't give up many homeruns (7 in 113.1 innings last year). His K/9 rate is good (6.83), and is K/BB is pretty good (2.15). He was dominant at times in the lower minors and has always done a good job keeping the ball in the park, but it'll be a tough jump for him from AA to the big show. The Reds will certainly give him a shot, but he's in a tough division there, so I don't expect him to fair very well.

Major League Draft: Round 1 - Lenny DiNardo, LHP, Boston
This one stings a bit. DiNardo is a bit of a queer egg. He was actually drafted by the Red Sox out of Stetson University in the 3rd round of the 2001 draft. He allegedly used to hit 90 whilst in college, though his fastball couldn't touch 90 nowadays if it were driving a Porsche. Baseball America had this to say:

DiNardo's impressive AFL campaign certainly didn't hurt his chances of being selected this year. While he allowed 22 hits in 18 innings, he mowed down hitters by keeping them off balance and he struck out 27 and walked just three. He faces a significant challenge in sticking on the Red Sox roster, however, because his fastball is timed at just 83-87 mph with good cutting movement. DiNardo touched 90 mph regularly in college, but scouts believe he became so reliant upon his cutter that it cost him velocity and arm strength.

He has good control and somehow manages to strike guys out. He has a career minor league K/BB rate of 2.72 and a K/9 of 9.34 to go with a ridiculous 0.24 HR/9 ratio. He's the kind of guy a smart organization would pick up, but he is a good bet to be coming back to the Mets sometime this season. With the Red Sox in the thick of a pennant race, it may be difficult to keep DiNardo on the Major League roster all season.

Additional Picks
Ender Chavez, OF, Montreal
John Wilson, C, Montreal

Pass The Pepto

With the announcement yesterday that Andy Pettitte had signed with the Astros, you would have thought someone had shot the President. As I listened to ESPN Radio, Yankee fan after Yankee fan called in with over-the-top melodrama such as:

"I feel sick to my stomach."
"This is a dark day for the New York Yankees."
"The Yankees as we know it are over."

I've never seen such remorse over the loss of a number-three starter. I mean, for a guy with a career ERA that approaches 4.00, Yankee fans were reacting as if all of George Steinbrenner's millions blew away and took the Yankees' 26 World Championships along with them. I talked about how overvalued Andy Pettitte is yesterday, and Rob Neyer has written an excellent piece on it as well. He argues, quite convincingly I might add, that the recent addition of Javier Vazquez and the impending addition of Kevin Brown will give the Yankees a much more formidable staff than the one comprised of Roger Clemens and Pettitte.

... if Brown and Vazquez are healthy in 2004, they'll represent a significant upgrade from Clemens and Pettitte, whose impressive won-lost records benefited from the Yankees' potent lineup.

Could a Yankees rotation that includes Brown stack up with the Red Sox's new Schilling-ful squad? You'd better believe it.

The Yankees rotation next season will sport three pitchers who were staff aces last season, plus the best pitcher Cuba had to offer in Jose Contreras. That's four pitchers who are each better than anyone starting for the Mets this season.

* * * * * * * * * *
ESPN.com: Vina, Tigers agree to $6 million deal

Un-be-freaking-lievable. Better them than us, that's what I say. There were rumors over the past few weeks that the Mets were interested in Fernando Vina to play second base at Shea. If Vina is worth $3 million (which he's not), the $6.7 million Kaz Matsui is getting looks like the deal of the century. You've gotta love the enthusiasm of new teammate Dmitri Young:

"I'm excited, to tell you the truth. I played against him in the National League, and he's going to really help us in the leadoff spot because he'll walk, bunt and hit the other way. And his great defense speaks for itself."

I'll bite. Let's break down this statement into it's quantifiable parts...

Great defense

He did win back-to-back gold gloves in 2001 and 2002. However, he wasn't even as good in those seasons as the Tigers' second basemen were in 2003.

                      RF     ZR
Fernando Vina '01    4.84   .849
Fernando Vina '02    4.72   .810
Warren Morris '03    5.55   .839
Ramon Santiago '03   5.04   .736
Shane Halter '03     5.23   .840

RF: Range Factor ((PO + A) * 9 divided by innings)
ZR: Zone rating. The percentage of balls fielded by a player in his typical defensive "zone," as measured by STATS, Inc.

Unless we also consider the triumverate of Warren Morris, Ramon Santiago, and Shane Halter great defensive second-basemen, this one is a bust.

He'll Walk

Taking this to its logical extreme, it's difficult to argue its truthfulness. He does indeed walk. But does he walk a lot? Hardly. His career high was 54 walks in 1998 with Milwaukee. Since then, his walk totals are: 14 (37 games), 36, 32, 44, and 11 (61 games). Hardly Nick Johnson. Certainly not the type of discipline numbers you'd like to see from your leadoff hitter, particularly if you are paying him $3 million a year.

So he doesn't walk and he doesn't play particularly great defense. He must hit well, right? If only he did.

        OPS    GPA
1999   .670   .235
2000   .778   .271
2001   .775   .265
2002   .671   .234
2003   .691   .235

Tigers president Dave Dombrowski had the following to say:

"There's no question we're in a mode that we can be very active and aggressive in our conversations with agents and other teams. It's great. It's an exciting time for our organization. We're looking to upgrade at second base, shortstop, outfield, starting pitching."

In my estimation, it looks like they still need an upgrade at second base, shortstop, outfield, and starting pitching.

Much Ado About Nothing Much

With reports flying suggesting that Andy Pettitte is close to signing a three-year deal with the Astros, all I keep reading and hearing from New York media outlets is how it would be an atrocity for the Yankees to let Pettitte go. The word from those in the know is that George Steinbrenner has lost his mind, and is engineering most of the Yankees' offseason moves in direct conflict with the opinions of GM Brian Cashman and manager Joe Torre.

I've never really understood what all of the hub-bub is about Andy Pettitte. He's a nice pitcher, don't get me wrong. But he's on the verge of signing a contract worth $10 million per year or more and, despite his wonderful balk move and devout catholicism, I'm not exactly convinced that he's worth eight figures. I'm a life-long Mets fan and, as such, a life-long Yankee hater. Be that as it may, I won't let it stand in my way of an objective analysis of Mr. Pettitte.

The following are regular seasons stats for two American League pitchers from 1999-2003.

             WL%   ERA   K/9   K/BB   HR/9
Player A    .626   3.97  6.70  2.06   1.01
Player B    .656   4.12  6.58  2.35   0.75

These two players have posted very similar stats over the past five seasons. Player A has the edge in ERA and K/9, while Player B has an edge in K/BB (better control) and HR/9. Let's check out what batters have done against these two over that same span.

         Player A      Player B
         OPS  GPA      OPS  GPA
1999    .741 .254     .808 .274
2000    .733 .249     .738 .252
2001    .625 .212     .713 .241
2002    .729 .244     .681 .233
2003    .751 .253     .713 .240

Pretty similar here too. Player A was better from 1999-2001, while Player B was a little better for 2002-2003. Player A made $6.875 million last season and his team, despite being in the thick of the pennant race, tried to trade him at the deadline last season. Player B made $11.5 million last season, pitched in the World Series, and has a cleft chin.

If you haven't already guessed, Player B is Andy Pettitte. Player A is none other than Rock look-alike Freddy Garcia. Pettitte's next contract will be in the $11-13 million dollar range, while Garcia will be lucky to see Kelvim Escobar money ($6.25 million annually). Why would Pettitte be likely to command so much more money? My two best explanations are:

a) his post-season performance
b) he's a lefty

Many applaud Pettitte's success in the numerous Yankee post-seasons he has pitched in, and how he really "steps it up" in the big games. But has he?

                 ERA   WHIP   K/9   K/BB   HR/9
Regular Season   3.94  1.38   6.40  2.20   0.72
Post-season      4.49  1.33   4.96  2.05   1.03

Granted, the post-season is against the best teams in the league and, in most cases, the best hitters in the league as well. That notwithstanding, you'd have a tough time convincing me that he was better in October (and November) than in all other months. In fact, by almost any measure, he was easily worse in the playoffs than during the regular season, even after considering the strength of competition.

But what of his ability to succeed under the bright lights of New York where others have failed? True, not every player is cut out to play in the big city. If I could put a dollar value on that, however, I might also be able to quantify all of Derek Jeter's intangibles in hopes of explaining the logic behind paying a poor defensive shortstop with some pop $19 million per season.

On The Move ... But Who Cares

With the deadline to offer players arbitration having passed on Sunday, a lot of pieces are starting to fall into place ... for some teams anyway. Yesterday's frenzy included no less than six free agent pitchers changing teams. How do the deals look?

Team: Atlanta Braves
Player: John Thomson
Terms: Two years, $7 million

The Mets acquired Thomson at the trade deadline in 2002 for perennial underachiever Jay Payton, pothead Mark Corey, and Robert Stratton, who has hit 165 minor league homeruns in 2,371 at-bats with -- are you sitting down? -- 982 strikeouts! He's shown some patience, walking 255 times, but he's a straight-up hacker in the mold of Dave Kingman.

He pitched okay down the stretch for the Mets, and signed a one-year deal with the Rangers in 2003. Here's how he's done the past two seasons relative to the league he pitched in:


                       ERA    WHIP  K/9   K/BB   HR/9
John Thomson '03       4.85   1.30  5.64  2.78   1.12
American League '03    4.52   1.39  6.11  1.93   1.11

John Thomson '02       4.71   1.30  5.30  2.43   1.39
National League '02    4.10   1.37  6.76  1.94   1.01


Thomson has shown pretty good control, keeping his walk rate better than the league. However, by almost any other measure, he has been worse than his respective league over the past two seasons. He has played in two of the best hitters parks in baseball in Coors Field (2002) and Arlington Stadium (2003), so let's say that pushes his numbers closer to the league average. You can never underestimate Leo Mazzone's impact on mediocre pitchers, but Thomson isn't going to be a worldbeater for the Braves.

$3.5 million per year is hardly breaking the bank, though it may be a bit much for a league average pitcher in today's buyer's market. He'll likely be the fifth starter for the Braves, who don't have a number one and, I would argue, don't even have a number two. Of course, they didn't have an ace last year and still ran away with the NL East.

The Lost Art Of Platooning

In the late nineties and early aughts, baseball teams threw around top dollar and multi-year deals to any Joe Shmoe or Todd Zeile who came along. However, that practice has changed alongside baseball's economic landscape. Teams are busy trying to undo the mistakes made by prior administrations and, short of inventing the baseball equivalent of , have to trim payroll wherever they can. Thus the now-ubiquitous event known as the non-tender.

When a team decides not to tender a contract to a player, it is usually because they fear that the potential arbitration settlement is too high. Typically, players who have completed three years of service in the major leagues are eligible for salary arbitration. The exception are those known as "super-two" players. According to the 2003-2006 MLB Collective Bargaining Agreement, this is:

a Player with at least two but less than three years of Major League service shall be eligible for salary arbitration if: (a) he has accumulated at least 86 days of service during the immediately preceding season; and (b) he ranks in the top seventeen percent (17%) (rounded to the nearest whole number) in total service in the class of Players who have at least two but less than three years of Major League service, however accumulated, but with at least 86 days of service accumulated during the immediately preceding season. If two or more Players are tied in ranking, ties shall be broken consecutively based on the number of days of service accumulated in each of the immediately preceding seasons. If the Players remain tied, the final tie breaker will be by lot.

After three years of service (or super-two), a player has three arbitration years. A team can offer arbitration to such a player, and the player is required to accept. This results in a one-year contract with a salary to be determined in an arbitration hearing. After those three seasons, the player no longer has to accept salary arbitration and can become an unrestricted free agent.

Until recently, a team would seemingly always offer arbitration to their arbitration-eligible players (between 3 and 6 years of service). However, with the pursestrings tightened, more and more players are given their unconditional release and sent off to find work elsewhere. While many of these players are crummy, it is certainly possible to find some affordable production in the non-tender bargain bin. Which brings us to...

The Platoon. The idea behind platooning is to take two complementary players who, while not very impressive individually, actually combine to be a pretty useful if not very productive player. With a modicum of cash to spend, one can put together some decent platoon positions among the many warm bodies on the non-tender bonfire. For a semi-complete list of non-tenders, check out this post at Batter's Box.


Player            AB    AVG   OBP   SLG  HR   RBI
Reggie Sanders    136  .301  .368  .647  12   33    (vs LHP)
Matt Stairs       273  .304  .402  .582  18   53    (vs RHP)


The 136 at-bats for Sanders against left-handed pitching this past season is a small sample, I'll admit. But he's posted a .970 OPS (.314 GPA) since 2001 in 386 at-bats). Sanders would probably cost $1.5 million for one season, with Stairs probably getting around $1 million. So that's $2.5 million for a player who could put up a .950 OPS, 35 HR and 100 RBI.

There are a number of other players who would provide productive platoon splits. The following non-tenders have put up very productive numbers over the past three seasons against lefties or righties:

Player            AB    AVG   OBP   SLG  HR   RBI
Andres Galarraga  291  .289  .356  .495  14    49   (vs LHP)
Tony Graffanino   304  .293  .367  .497  11    37   (vs LHP)
Brian Jordan      280  .318  .381  .582  18    71   (vs LHP)
Eric Karros       307  .316  .389  .515  12    44   (vs LHP)
Carl Everett     1309  .290  .367  .509  47   170   (vs RHP)
Fred McGriff      950  .297  .380  .532  56   175   (vs RHP)

All of these players can be had for a reasonably small contract, and can provide good production against one type of pitcher. It's an inexpensive way to maximize production out of a particular position.

Eric | 10:46 AM EST | TrackBack: 1
Category: Managing

It's A Maddux Maddux Maddux Maddux World

Before I get into the main topic, ESPN.com's Peter Gammons is reporting that the Mets and Kazuo Matsui have agreed to a three-year deal worth $6.7 million annually. There have been reports and articles all weekend to this effect, but now it seems almost official. If this is the case, I will break down what the Mets can reasonably expect out of Matsui later this week.


* * * * * * * * * *
The Atlanta Braves have cut ties to their second-longest-tenured player, Greg Maddux (John Smoltz has the longest current tenure). With the arbitration deadline passing last night, Maddux's eleven-year run as (usually) the ace of the Braves staff will be coming to an end. Maddux's dominance has diminished as he has gotten on in years, but he is still a productive pitcher and will undoubtedly help whomever he signs with this offseason (The Padres are the early favorites to secure his services).

From 1992-1995, Maddux put together one of the most dominant streaks in baseball history, taking home four consecutive Cy Young Awards, a feat matched only by The Big Unit from 1999-2002. During those four seasons, Maddux had an average ERA of 1.98, posting individual ERAs of 2.18, 2.36, 1.56, and 1.63. The last two of those seasons were downright silly. He surrendered a grand total of 12 homeruns in 411.2 innings in 1994 and 1995, going 35-8 over that span.

From 1992-1995 he averaged 7.6 innings per start, and averaged a dead-ball-era-esque eight innings per start in 1994. In 2003, that average fell to fewer than six innings per start. The one thing that has accelerated Maddux's decline more than anything else has been his strikeout rate.

Year   IP     K/9    K/BB   HR/9
2000  249.1   6.86   4.52   0.67
2001  233.0   6.68   6.41   0.77
2002  199.1   5.33   2.62   0.63
2003  218.1   5.11   3.76   0.99


His strikeouts per nine innings have decreased in each of the past three seasons, which is fairly common among pitchers as they careen towards retirement. Maddux has never had an overpowering fastball, but his movement and command have been so impeccable that he has actually racked up a fair amount of strikeouts over the years. In fact, in 1994 he averaged 7.77 K's per nine innings, the best of his career.

For most pitchers, when the strikeout rate goes so does success. Maddux has been able to keep the wheels from falling off entirely by limiting the number of walks and homeruns he has given up. He gave up only 33 walks this season, averaging one per 6.6 innings, a terrific rate. However, his homerun rate, while still decent at just under one-per-nine, was the highest of his career. His ERA (3.96), OPS against (.715) and GPA against (.238) were all higher than any season since his rookie year in 1987 (5.61 ERA, .822 OPS, .267 GPA).

You can't really blame the Braves for declining to offer Greg Maddux arbitration. They offered it to him last season and were burned. Thinking it would give them more time to negotiate with him, the Braves ended up holding their junk when Maddux was awarded the largest single-season arbitration settlement of $14.75 million. As a result, the Braves were way over-budget and were forced to trade Kevin Millwood to the Phillies.

Maddux will be sure to catch on with somebody, probably for one or two seasons with a vesting option for an additional year. I wouldn't expect him to get much more than $6-7 million per. That's a far cry from the nigh $15 million he netted this season, but as Curt Schilling pointed out prior to his negotiations with the Red Sox, that's still money on top of money he'll never spend.

The Empire Strikes Back

Never one to be outdone, Boss George yesterday spearheaded a trade with Les Expos, acquiring Montreal's staff ace and great human being Javier Vazquez for on-base machine and my favorite (former) Yankee Nick Johnson, as well as a sack of bats and a sack of balls (see: choad).

Randol Doyle Choate was initially a player-to-be-named later in this deal, with "later" turning out to be around an hour's time. He's 28 years old, and has played parts of the last four seasons with the Yankees. In 91 big league innings, Choate has struck out 64 batters while walking 51. The K/9 isn't too bad (6.40), but the K/BB is pretty scary (1.25). He's done a good job keeping the ball in the yard, surrendering only four homers in those 91 innings. His career numbers with Columbus of the International League (AAA) are quite good, striking out 129 and walking 56 in 147 innings, while giving up only 6 longballs. He's hardly a prospect at this point, but he could certainly contribute 70 league-average-or-better innings for a lot of major league clubs ... just not the Yankees.

What was once a glut of pinstriped Riveras (Mariano, Ruben, Juan) has been whittled down to a single one. Thursday morning I heard somewhere that Juan Rivera was almost a dealbreaker for the Yankees. After pissing myself, I felt much better. On the bright side, Rivera tore apart left-handed pitching this season to the tune of a 1.018 OPS (.326 GPA). On the dim side, that was only in 50 at-bats. On the bleak side, almost everything else. He actually posted an .879 OPS (.293 GPA) in 772 AAA at-bats since 2001, with 29 homers and 128 RBIs. It all fell apart, as it does for so many, when he joined the big club. If the Expos can re-sign Vladimir Guerrero, Rivera could play left-field with Brad Wilkerson shifting over to center, leaving Endy Chavez and his .648 OPS (.221 GPA) twiddling his thumbs.

Nick Johnson is a very good batter. He's adequate in the field, but at the plate he really seems to get it. It? Yep, he gets it. The guy walked 70 times in 324 AB, striking out only 57 times. He even managed 14 homers while posting a team-high .422 OBP. I like this kid, and I think he has a huge upside.

That being said, the Yankees had to make this deal. They pick up the Expos best pitcher, and certainly one of the better young non-Cub starters in the National League. Is he better than Curt Schilling? No, definitely not. Is he better than Bartolo Colon? Maybe. Thinner? Definitely. Cheaper? No chance. Will the Yankees sign Colon anyway now that they have Vazquez? They might. Can I write in sentence fragments for an entire blog? We'll just have to see. Vazquez is a young, accomplished, level-headed strikeout pitcher that the Yankees aging rotation desperately needed. He doesn't walk a lot of guys, but will give up his share of homeruns. That being said, he'll likely be the Yankees #2 guy behind The Moose, and a damned fine one at that.

It's hard to fault either team for making this deal. The Yankees needed an upgrade to the rotation, and needed a frontline guy to keep up with the Red Sox. The Expos needed to shed payroll to make an offer to Vlady, and got a very good hitter with a huge ceiling along with some spare parts.

Advantage: Push

THIS JUST IN: In an article in today's Montreal Gazette, Pat Hickey doesn't think the Yankees made out so well:

The Yankees bolstered their starting rotation yesterday when they acquired Javier Vazquez from the Expos for first-baseman Nick Johnson, outfielder Juan Rivera and left-handed relief pitcher Randy Choate.

Or did they?

The deal is the Yankees' response to the Red Sox acquiring Curt Schilling, but the only edge Vazquez, 27, has over Schilling, 37, is the fact he's a lot younger. He's no Schilling and he'll have to be a lot more consistent than he was here if he's going to fill any of the holes left in the Yankees' rotation. Roger Clemens is definitely gone and there is no assurance that David Wells or Andy Pettitte will be back. They are all better than Vazquez.

Yankee Dogs Now $18

The Yankees excess is hard at work again, this time (over)spending on warm bodies to set up Mariano Rivera. Tom Gordon signed a two-year deal yesterday worth $7.2 million, and Ontario's own Paul Quantrill signed a similar two-year pact worth $6.8 million. Add to that the soon-to-be deals for Felix "Don't Call me Gil" Heredia (two years, $3.6 million) and Gabe White (two years, $6 million), plus the $10 million they owe Steve Karsay through 2005 and the $2.4 million Chris Hammond will make in 2004, and the Anskys will have $36 million tied up in middle relief over the next couple of seasons. That's more than half of what the Brewers will spend on their entire roster over the same span.


                      2001               2002               2003

                 K/9  K/BB  HR/9    K/9  K/BB  HR/9    K/9  K/BB  HR/9
Tom Gordon      13.30 4.19  0.79   10.13 3.00  0.63   11.07 2.94  0.49
Paul Quantrill   6.29 4.83  0.65    6.22 2.12  0.12    5.12 2.93  0.23
Gabe White       6.25 1.81  2.39    6.79 4.10  0.50    5.59 3.63  1.35
Felix Heredia    7.20 1.75  1.54    5.33 1.19  0.86    4.66 1.36  1.03

The first thing that immediately jumps out at me is Flash Gordon's strikeout rates. He was seventh in the majors this season in K/9 with 11.07 (among pitchers with at least 40 ip). That's better than Billy Wagner (10.99), John Smoltz (10.21), and Octavio Dotel (10.03). He had Tommy John surgery four years ago, and has missed a good deal of playing time over the past five seasons, including much of 1999 and all of 2000. If he stays healthy, he'll give the Yankee bullpen the power arm (aside from M-Riv) they've sorely missed during the past few seasons of incomprehensible failure.

Paul Quantrill, while no doubt aided by the friendly confines of Dodger Stadium (park factors of 93 and 91 the past two seasons), should provide some much-needed relief, and will offer a change of pace from Gordon's hard stuff. He has very good control and, while he doesn't strike out a ton of hitters, gives up a ridiculously low number of homeruns. Last season he gave up one longball for approximately every 36 innings he pitched. While astounding, it was put to shame by his 2002 rate of one every 72 innings. That would be like a starting pitcher giving up one homerun for every 12 six-inning starts he makes. He is an extreme groundball pitcher, giving up almost twice as many groundballs as flyballs over the last three years. While this helps keep the ball in the yard, it may not be the best complement to the Yankees infield defense.

Gabe White and Felix Heredia are probably league-average relievers. They both pitched pretty well for the Yankees last season, which apparently was enough for Boss George to pay them like they were replacement-level middle-infielders.

Quite frankly, the Yankee bullpen was s*** last season. With Heredia and White effectively replacing the 2003 versions of themselves, Paul Quantrill and Tom Gordon (when he plays), will be a huge upgrade over the jigsaw puzzle suckfest that has dominated the middle innings at the Stadium of late.

Castillo Resigns With Marlins (Hooray!)

I would like to personally thank the Florida Marlins for signing Luis Castillo so the Mets didn't have to. I'm sorry, but I guess I'm the only one who wasn't jumping out of my shorts to give away $16 million over three years for a .731 OPS (256 GPA), which is exactly what Castillo has posted since 2001. Granted, he's a gold-glover at second base, the second-most important defensive position after shortstop. You want stolen bases? Look elsewhere. Castillo has been caught almost a third of the time over the past three seasons (102 SB in 152 chances).

The Mets will apparently now turn their attention to Kazuo Matsui, who will probably get a deal similar to that of Hideki Matsui ($21 million over three years). I would sooner do that than spend $16 million on Luis. That is, of course, provided it doesn't require moving Jose Reyes to second base. Mets management is apparently split on this idea. Ownership is in favor of moving Reyes, while GM Jim Duquette and other executives are opposed to the idea (as am I).

Of course, the Mets will be bidding against no less than five other teams (Yankees, Orioles, Mariners, Dodgers, Angels), with the Dodgers, Angels, and Orioles certain to have an opening for him at shortstop. I've read that he won't want to share the Yankee spotlight with Hideki Matsui, preferring to be the prominent Japanese player on any team (cross Seattle of the list?).

There is also talk about the Mets signing Brooklyn's own Rich Aurilia to play second base, or third base with Ty Wigginton moving to second. Aside from his ridiculously-out-of-character year in 2001 (.324 BA, 37 HR, 97 RBI), he's been a pretty mediocre hitter, sporting a .278 career BA, .331 career OBP, and .444 career slugging.

An intriguing possibility that hasn't really been mentioned yet would be trading for Jose Vidro, who is a very good, fairly patient switch hitter with some pop. He's scheduled to make $7 million this year. Maybe the Mets could put together a nice little package of prospects and ship them to Montreal for Vidro and Livan Hernandez ($6 million). That would allow the Expos to free up $13 million in 2004, which might leave them enough wiggle room to afford Javier Vazquez' arbitration award and bring back Vlad Guerrero. I might even be willing to take on arbo-eligible Orlando Cabrera (who won a gold glove in 2001) to play third base. Hernandez and Cabrera would be one-year trials who could be dumped after '04 if they suck it up Robbie Alomar-style.

D-Backs Bag Sexton

Now that the chips have fallen in the Curt Schilling deal, the D-Backs wasted no time consummating a follow-up deal with the Beermakers, trading a grab bag of would-be prospects and spare parts for the only thing that previously separated the Brewers from any other minor league ballclub.

The centerpiece of this deal is Richie Sexson, whose 465 whiffs over the past three seasons exceed all but the holy trinity of Jose Hernandez (550), Jim Thome (506), and Mike Cameron (468). Fortunately for Arizona, Sexson has looked a lot more like Thome than offensive wastelands Hernandez and Cameron. He's averaged 40 homers and 117 RBI over that same span and, while he's not quite up to the walking-machine status of Thome, he has increased his walk totals each season as well (60, 70, 98). His GPA this season was .308, 5th best among ML first-basemen (Helton, Delgado, Giambi, Thome).

My favorite line from the ESPN.com article has got to be this one:

With Shea Hillenbrand at third base, Arizona has a pair of solid right-handed bats in what has been, in recent years, a lineup dominated by left-handed hitters.

I don't know about you guys, but the last time I checked, a .302 OBP is not what I would consider "solid". That's what Shea Hillenbrand put up for the D-Backs in 330 AB. Small sample size? He has gotten on base at a .314 clip since 2001 (1617 AB), with a grand total of 62 walks.

The major league "talent" the Brewers got back in this deal is marginal. Here they are with their OPS and GPA from 2003:

Player           OPS   GPA
Junior Spivey   .759  .255
Craig Counsell  .631  .224
Chad Moeller    .770  .260
Lyle Overbay    .898  .308 (2002 Tuscon AAA)


Overbay is the only one here who isn't a waste of a roster spot, though Moeller's .260 GPA would have been good for 7th among big league catchers, between Ramon Hernandez (.263) and Paul Lo Duca (.245). I had Moeller in a fantasy league this season, but Arizona manager Bob Brenly stopped playing him for some unknown reason. He apparently favored Rod Barajas' razor-thin .201 GPA. Overbay struggled a bit this year with the big club, posting a .767 OPS and a respectable .265 GPA. He'll take over at first base for Milwaukee, seamlessly replacing the strikeout void Sexson leaves behind (67 in 254 AB).

The other player of note in this deal is Jorge De La Rosa, who the D-Backs had just acquired minutes earlier from the Red Sox in the Curt Schilling swap. De La Rosa notched a 2.80 ERA with Portland of the Eastern League, striking out 102 while walking only 36 in 99.2 innings. He also did a good job keeping the ball in the park, giving up only six homers. He's only 22, and could have a bright future with Milwaukee, until he no longer fits under their $30 million payroll umbrella and is traded to the D-Backs for prospects.

A pretty good trade for Arizona, as they get the sluggardly slugger they've been looking for. Sexson will cost them $8.6 million this year, but they were able to jettison Counsell and his $3.15 million along with Spivey and his $2,367,500 price tag.

Advantage: Diamondbacks