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Zeile Blasts Yanks

Thanks to Vinny at Yankees, Mets and the Rest for clueing me in to this article, where the newest Met Todd Zeile rips into the Yankees' organizational philosophies:

I have no desire to play again for that organization ... I think some of the things that happen over there are different than any other organization in baseball. I have a pretty good track record to judge that ... Every day is potentially the end-all," he said. "It's whatever they need that day. It sometimes can be unsettling for people in role positions there. ... I don't really have a desire to get back into that mix.

Zeile's ego was no doubt bruised a bit, but anyone signing with the Yankees has to know going in that winning is the only thing that matters. The Yankee machine will steamroll over everything in its path, unafraid to flatten whatever/whomever gets in its way.

Zeile goes on to explain why he decided against hanging up his spikes:

Only because I got some renewed desire and some adrenaline and passion for the game with Montreal did I really consider coming back for another year. The move to Montreal really solidified for me the desire to continue to play. It gave me the opportunity to check out if I had anything left in the tank.

The million clams probably made the decision a bit easier for him. Counselor Zeile then gives his take on the whole Aaron Boone fiasco:

If your injury is self-inflicted, then I think the team should then have the opportunity to undo that contract and look at it on the merits of what the language says. I think it's going to be tricky in particular with Aaron. I think most of the things that are put in the contract as far as prohibitive language (are) reasonable.

He might be getting a call from the players' union asking him to be a little more supportive of his fellow teamsters.

Mets and Zeile Make It Official

The Mets officially announced the signing of Todd "Veteran Presence" Zeile to a one-year, Major League contract worth $1 million guaranteed, with a possible $500,000 in plate appearance bonuses.

Zeile became the first player in major league history to collect a home run for 11 different teams when he cracked a three-run shot off Florida's Mark Redman on September 5th last season.

He is also the MLB career leader in homeruns by a player whose last name begins with "Z". That'll put butts in the seats. Zeile will bring his eclectic blend of passive leadership, experience, and "friend of Mike Piazza" attitude that this team has sorely missed these past two seasons.

Think about it: Zeile signs with the Mets, and the Mets go to the World Series in 2000 and contend for the post-season until the last week of 2001. He gets traded away, and they suffer two horrendous last-place finishes. Coincidence? I smell a new Mets renaissance.

Mets, Spencer Come To Terms

According to Newsday, the Mets have come to terms with free agent outfielder Shane Spencer on a minor-league deal worth a reported $500,000.

Spencer is expected to be a strong contender for playing time in rightfield because of his home-run prowess and solid defense. His acquisition will give the Mets five veteran rightfield options and incite additional speculation that Roger Cedeño could be released.

In light of yesterday's move, this one seems to makes a lot more sense. Back in December, I talked a bit about platooning, and apparently Jim Duquette might have been reading. With Spencer sharing time in right field with newly-acquired Karim Garcia, the Mets could expect decent production from a position that has been an offensive and defensive black hole for a number of years.

Here's what the two players have done over the past three seasons against opposite-handed pitchers.

SHANE SPENCER VS LEFTIES (2001-2003)

 AB   AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS   HR  RBI
305  .282  .345  .456  .801   12   53


KARIM GARCIA VS RIGHTIES (2001-2003)

 AB   AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS   HR  RBI
360  .297  .327  .528  .855   24   69

Together, they make a pretty decent player. The sample sizes aren't huge, but comprise a total of about a half of a season for each player, which is not insignificant. Given a full season of left/right platooning, I don't think it's unreasonable to expect a .275 hitter with 25 homeruns and 85 RBI. All for the grand total of $1.3 million dollars.

It may be presumptuous on my part to suggest that a strict platoon for these two players is what Mets management has in mind. If that's what it turns out to be, though, I consider it a huge step in the right direction (after several bungled mis-steps in the wrong direction), and represents the kind of forward-thinking that you might expect from other, seemingly-more-enlightened organizations.

The Jaime Cerda Backlash

The ink had hardly dried on the Jaime Cerda/Shawn Sedlacek deal before the Mets community at large was in an uproar. "How could you trade our beloved Jaime Cerda?" they cried. "Jaime was the cornerstone" and "He was a left-handed Eric Gagne", were some other remarks that I made up. As in many cases, there is a bit more to this deal than meets the eye. MetsBlog added:

Why Cerda? Of the 40 players on the Mets roster, Cerda is out of minor league options, he refused to play Winter Ball as the Mets requested of him, he had a disappointing season following a strong rookie year and the team already has plenty of young, bullpen arms in their farm system. MetsBlog likes Cerda. He showed the strong mental strength that is needed to pitch in relief, and his tools suggest he will be a good pitcher in the years to come. He isn’t, however, worth keeping over many other players on the Mets 40-man roster, and his talent could only be argued over a small few.

I'll admit that effectively trading Cerda for Zeile is not a move that I am in favor of. Cerda is a serviceable lefty; not overpowering to major league hitters, but fairly comparable to Mike Stanton, albeit at 1/10th the price and 10 years his younger. It should be noted that Cerda declined to play Winter Ball so that he could stay at home with his daughter, Veronica, who was born in October. Hardly dissention, though the Mets brass were none too pleased with it.

Mets Deal Cerda To Royals

Yesterday, the Mets traded lefty setup man Jaime Cerda to the Kansas City Royals for righty Shawn Sedlacek.

The move also frees up a spot on New York's 40-man roster for Todd Zeile, who is expected to sign this week, possibly as soon as Tuesday, after passing a team physical on Friday. Sedlacek will be a non-roster invitee and join the pitchers and catchers when they report for Spring Training on Feb. 20.

This is basically a non-move. Cerda had a modicum of success with the Mets, though he was actually very impressive against minor league hitters. In 210 minor league innings, Cerda posted a razor-thin 0.81 ERA, struck out 215 batters (9.21 K/9), and only walked 53 (2.27 BB/9). His big league numbers are much less impressive: 4.42 ERA with 40 K and 34 BB in 57 innings.

According to the article, Sedlacek was the Baseball America minor league pitcher of the year in 2000 for Kansas City. He's logged 707 minor league innings, putting up less-than-stellar numbers. His 4.40 ERA is just slightly better than Cerda's major league ERA. I wouldn't expect Sedlacek to make the club out of spring training, though he might end up at Norfolk to toil some more.

Hit Dog Not Retired

Even though Mo Vaughn has conceded that his baseball career is over, the Mets officially announced what everyone already knew, that he is not actually retired.

If he retires, he will walk away from $17 million he is owed over the next two seasons. Insurance is currently paying much of his salary.

Neither Mo nor his agent Jeff Moorad would walk away from that pile of Samoleans. Mo is basically doing his best Albert "Don't Call Me Joey" Belle impression by declaring himself "physically unable to perform". As such, he is still considered an active player (non-retired), and will continue to collect his sizeable paycheck.

Even though Albert Belle all-but-retired following the 2000 season, he still made over $37 million dollars in salary from the Baltimore Orioles.

Taking The Fifth (Part 2 of 2)

As we all know, the Mets are currently searching high and low for an able-bodied individual to fill out the last spot in their starting rotation. In Part 1 on Wednesday, I looked at pitchers that the Mets are considering from within their own organization. Today I will look at:

Part 2: The Scrap Heap

The following pitchers do not belong to another team and are free for the pickin'. Too bad it's slim pickin'.

Rick Reed

Reed was one of the few union members to cross the picket lines during the 1994-95 strike. He was deemed a "replacement player" and has yet to be allowed back into the union. Nevertheless, Reed was the Mets best pitcher in 1997 and was their second best pitcher in 1998 to Al Leiter. His ERA+ in 1997 was 140, which was good for ninth in the league. His 2.89 ERA that year was sixth in the league.

Reed's success has always been tied to his ability to control the strike zone. Though he couldn't hit 90 MPH driving a Ferrari, his 1.66 career BB/9 is really outstanding, and ranks 1st among active pitchers and 35th all-time. Though he doesn't fan a ton of hitters, his 5.64 career K/9 is adequate.

Where Reed gets killed, however, is when it comes to giving up the longball. He's given up 1.24 per nine innings over the course of his career, which is one of the reasons he hasn't been better than he's been.

Reed will turn 40 this coming August, so he can't have much, if anything, left in the old tank. Of course, there are much worse choices out there. For instance...

Scott Erickson

There's not really much I can say that will be flattering to Erickson. He had good seasons in 1991 and 1992 when he posted ERA+ marks of 134 and 120, respectively. Since then, he's only cracked 115 once (119 in 1997). He was a workhorse from 1996-1999, averaging over 231 innings per season. Then his arm fell off in 2000 and, as you'd expect from a pitcher whose pitching arm fell off, hasn't really been the same since. He's pitched a total of 253.1 innings over the past four seasons, missing all of 2003 with, what else, an arm injury.

Please tell me the Mets (or anybody) aren't really considering Scott F'in Erickson? Why sign him when they could opt for the dried-up husk of this guy...

Garrett Stephenson

Ugh. Career ERA+ of 96 (4.55 ERA for the layperson). He just turned 31, which is about the only good thing I can say about him. He started 27 games last season for the Cardinals and struck out a whopping 91 batters in 174.1 innings. He also walked 60 during that span and gave up a jaw-dropping 30 homeruns (1.55 HR/9). Run away from this one really fast, boys. Don't make eye contact. Don't walk. Get out of dodge. There's gotta be something better out there. Someone like...

Orlando Hernandez

I picked this guy up off of waivers in my fantasy league last year, expecting him to foil National League hitters with his wide array of arm angles, all of which he uses to throw the exact same pitch. Hernandez went down in Spring Training and didn't throw a pitch during the whole season.

He's been a better-than-average pitcher for much of his five big-league seasons and sports a career K/9 of 7.04. He's a bit prone to the gopher ball, particularly when there are runners on base and he has to pitch from the stretch.

If he's had one great strength, it's been his performance in the postseason. In 97 postseason innings, Hernandez has 95 strikeouts, a 10-2 record, and an ERA of 2.51, including a 2.28 ERA in the World Series. Unfortunately, this particular "skill" (?!?!?) will be of little use to the 2004 Mets. According to Baseball Reference, he turned 38 last season. ESPN.com lists him at 34. Only Mrs. Hernandez knows for sure.

Well, there's certainly not much to choose from here. El Duque definitely has the most upside, though Reed has the fewest health concerns. Both pitchers have had success in New York, bud I'd probably throw my hat in El Duque's corner, mostly because I think he can still do a good job getting major league hitters out, and it would probably steam Boss George if he has any kind of success with the Mets.

Ben Baumer, Mets Statistical Analyst

As many of you know, the Mets have been quietly looking to employ a statistical analyst, similar to the role Bill James serves with the Red Sox. The blogging community threw its support into David Pinto's corner (of the incomparable Baseball Musings), but the Mets decided to go with the little-known Ben Baumer.

His website was taken offline shortly after the announcement was made. However, thanks to the magic of Google's cached pages, you can still view his website in its entirety.

Home Page

School

Simpsons

Personal

Pictures

Links

Frank Philbrick Fan Club

Resume

Smooth Operators

You can also read a note from Ben regarding his new job. Note that none of the links above contain any images, as Google doesn't cache those.

If anyone has more information or links please let me know and I will post them here.

Eric | 03:54 PM EST | TrackBack: 1
Category: Mets Transactions

Taking The Fifth (Part 1 of 2)

With the Mets Winter Caravan underway in New York City, the team has unveiled its new motto: "Catch the Energy". The way the Mets defense performed last season, it could very well have been "Catch the Ball" (get it?). Anyhoo, with Spring Training a month away, the team is still searching for another starting pitcher to round out the rotation.

A lot of "names" have been mentioned in recent weeks. Those names, believe it or not, belong to current or one-time ballplayers, "pitchers", whose services the Mets are considering.

You may remember Spring Training 2003 when the Mets were in a similar situation. Jason Middlebrook, Mike Bacsik, and upstart David Cone battling for the fifth starting spot, with the elder statesman Cone "winning" the showdown. He even managed to hold onto the spot for four starts before calling it a career.

This year is no different, as the Mets are scouring the depths of baseball purgatory in search for a pitcher to round out their rotation.

Part 1: From The Bowels Within

The following pitchers can be currently found within the Mets organization.

Jeremy Griffiths

In a brief stint with the Mets last season, Griffiths pitched 41 innings and posted an ERA+ of 60 (7.02 ERA) which is not good, to say the least. He only managed a bit better in Winter Ball, going 1-2 with a 6.94 ERA. In 532 minor league innings he has an ERA of 3.61. His K/9 is 7.64; not mind-numbing, but well above average. His BB/9 (2.83) is pretty good and his HR/9 (0.65) is excellent.

He's a big guy, 6'6", and he'll be 26 in March. He's by no means an overpowering pitcher, but he has some upside and could turn into an above-average major league pitcher.

Aaron Heilman

Like Griffiths, Heilman has been a very successful pitcher in the minor leagues. Also like Griffiths, Heilman sucked it up big time with the Mets last year. While looking the proverbial gift horse in the mouth, Heilman responded to being given the fifth starter's position by posting an ERA+ of 63 (ERA 6.75).

A first round pick by the Mets in 2001, Heilman has a career minor league ERA of 3.35. His peripheral numbers are also very strong: K/9 of 7.86; BB/9 of 2.89; HR/9 of 0.49. His strikeout rate was decent with the Mets (7.03), but his walks and homeruns increased dramatically. Heilman was considered an untouchable prospect before last season, and now he's crap. He still has loads of "potential", and hopefully Rick Peterson can help him. It's been said that a lof of Heilman's problems last season came from poor mechanics. If there's one thing Peterson knows, it's mechanics (or bio-mechanics).

Tyler Yates

Yates came to the Mets in 2001 as part of the Dave Justice trade. Looking at his minor league stats, he looks like he has potential.

TYLER YATES

                IP    ERA    K/9    BB/9   HR/9
Rookie Ball    23.0   3.91   7.83   5.48   0.00
Class A       141.0   4.33   8.68   3.70   0.89
Class AA       89.0   4.85   8.60   4.25   0.61
Class AAA      39.0   1.14   8.54   3.23   0.23

He's struggled with his control a bit, but he has an overpowering fastball and he does a great job keeping the ball in the park. He could be a closer in waiting, but the Mets may give him a shot at starting. I can't say I know why.

Grant Roberts

Roberts was an 11th round pick by the Mets in 1995. 1995 was a long time ago. Roberts turned 26 this past season, and should be hitting his prime years. He has a career major league ERA+ of 112 (3.62 ERA). He has struck out 76 batters in 97 big league innings, while surrendering only 5 homeruns and 31 walks.

He came up as a starter in 2000 and promptly got shelled. He gave up 9 earned runs in 7 innings and that was it for him. He returned in 2001, this time as a member of the bullpen. He has pitched well in that capacity for the Mets, but has lost a lot of time these past few seasons due to injury. The Mets are giving him another shot at starting, and Roberts is reportedly very excited about this opportunity. After all, as a started, he'd be able to smoke pot four out of every five days and not have to worry about pitching in a game. Woo-hoo!

Check back tomorrow for Part 2, where I'll look at players outside of the Mets organization who could be vying for a spot in the rotation.

Burning Money

The Baltimore Orioles are undoubtedly frustrated by their sixth consecutive fourth place finish. In fact, every season since 1998 has ended with the American League East standings looking like this:

1) New York Yankees
2) Boston Red Sox
3) Toronto Blue Jays
4) Baltimore Orioles
5) Tampa Bay Devil Rays

And the future doesn't look much brighter, at least in terms of the standings changing. The Orioles have taken a number of steps this offseason to at least improve the product on the field, even if it doesn't really get them any closer to the playoffs. Despite losing out on Vladimir Guerrero (I wonder what that must feel like), the Orioles have upgraded at several key positions.

Last season the O's flirted with .500 around the All-Star break, and were as close as 57-59 after beating the Red Sox on August 10. They finished the season 71-91, a mere 30 games behind the Yankees. If you're an Oriole fan (and who isn't?), there are brighter days ahead, even though those days won't be falling in October.

2003 SHORTSTOPS

                  OBP   SLG   OPS   WS
Miguel Tejada    .336  .472  .807   25
Deivi Cruz       .269  .378  .647   10
                                    --
                                    15 = 5 games

2003 FIRST BASEMEN

                  OBP   SLG   OPS   WS
Rafael Palmeiro  .359  .508  .867   19
Jeff Conine      .338  .459  .797   16
                                    --
                                    3 = 1 game

2003 CATCHERS

                  OBP   SLG   OPS   WS
Javy Lopez       .378  .687 1.065   30
Brook Fordyce    .311  .371  .682    5
                                    --
                                    25 = 8.3 games

The Orioles have significantly upgraded, at least offensively, at shortstop and catcher, with a decent upgrade at first base as well. Based on production numbers from 2003, they could reasonably expect to be 14 games better than last year, which is a lot of games. Based on their record from last year, the O's would project to go 85-77 which, sadly, would still have put them in forth place last season, just a game behind third place Toronto, who, by the way, have also improved themselves since 2003 ended, particularly their starting rotation and bullpen.

Even if they finish in fourth again, those 14 games will mean a whole lot to the millions of fans attending the games and watching on tv. Even though, by the above measure, they would still be well out of playoff contention, you can't underestimate the value of those extra wins in terms of fan appreciation and team morale. These things can't be measured by mundane baseball statistics, but the subjective human element is a powerful one indeed.

And now to the burning money. On top of the three sluggers they've inked this offseason, they have also just locked up Sidney Ponson for three years at $7.5 million per year. That's an awful lot of money to pay a pitcher who, by all accounts, had no other serious suitors. The Orioles were essentially bidding against themselves, and they couldn't get a better deal than this? Ponson is not a terrible pitcher by any stretch, but he's a not that good either, and he's a little thick in the hip for my liking.

Here's what Ponson has done these past few years.

SIDNEY PONSON 2001-2003

        IP    K/9    BB/9   HR/9   ERA+
2001   138.1  5.47   2.41   1.37    85
2002   176.0  6.14   3.22   1.33   107
2003   216.0  5.58   2.54   0.67   115

His peripheral numbers are nothing to write home about, though he did a great job in 2003 keeping the ball in the yard after giving up his fair share the previous two seasons. His ERA+ (ERA relative to the league) has improved each of the past three years as his workload has increased. His strikeout and walk rates, while not great, have remained steady as he has pitched more innings.

Let's say that in 2003 he found his stroke, and he'll continue to post ERA+ marks of around 115, or 15% better than the league. In 2003, the average salary for starting pitchers was $3.3 million (msnbc.com). Hell, let's say that Ponson hits his stride next season and is 20% better than the league.

Let's see. That's $3.3 million x 1.20 = $3.96 million. Throw in an extra $40,000 for a personal trainer and dietician and you're at an even $4 million, which is pretty fair for someone of Ponson's talents. Over three years, that's $12 million, or $10.5 million less than the Orioles are actually going to pay him.

Piazza Polishes Whooping Stick

As everyone is aware by now, Roger Clemens has signed a one-year deal with Los Houston Astros. Personally, I've hated Clemens for a while. More specifically, since he joined the Yankees after the 1999 season in a trade for David Wells (plus Graeme Lloyd and Homer Bush).

Now that Clemens has signed with Houston (joining fellow Texan, workout buddy, devout Christian, and candidate for most overrated pitcher in baseball Andy Pettitte), I don't harbor such bad feelings for him. Much of the animosity stemmed from his multiple run-ins with Mets slugger and latent heterosexual Mike Piazza. Besides, as a baseball fan it's hard not to root for the best pitcher in the past forty years not named Tom Seaver.

Anyways, in the wake of Clemens' deal, ESPN.com's Sports Nation added a new poll asking readers which team they thought had the best rotation. Their choices look like this:

Houston Astros
Roy Oswalt (10-5, 2.97)
Andy Pettitte (21-8, 4.02)
Roger Clemens (17-9, 3.91)
Wade Miller (14-13, 4.13)
Jeriome Robertson (15-9, 5.10)

New York Yankees
Mike Mussina (17-8, 3.40)
Kevin Brown (14-9, 2.39)
Javier Vazquez (13-12, 3.12)
Jose Contreras (7-2, 3.30)
Jon Lieber (injured)

Oakland A's
Tim Hudson (16-7, 2.70)
Mark Mulder (15-9, 3.13)
Barry Zito (14-12, 3.30)
Mark Redman (14-9, 3.59)
Rich Harden (5-4, 4.46)

Boston Red Sox
Pedro Martinez (14-4, 2.22)
Curt Schilling (8-9, 2.95)
Derek Lowe (17-7, 4.47)
Tim Wakefield (11-7, 4.09)
Byung-Hyun Kim (9-10, 3.31)

Chicago Cubs
Mark Prior (18-6, 2.43)
Kerry Wood (14-11, 3.20)
Carlos Zambrano (13-11, 3.11)
Matt Clement (14-12, 4.11)
????

Florida Marlins
Josh Beckett (9-8, 3.04)
A.J. Burnett (injured)
Dontrelle Willis (14-6, 3.30)
Brad Penny (14-10, 4.13)
Carl Pavano (12-13, 4.30)

Of course, I wouldn't mind if my team sported any of these staffs. As of now, the poll results look like this:

23.7% Boston Red Sox
21.6% Oakland A's
20.2% Chicago Cubs
17.8% Houston Astros
11.4% New York Yankees
 5.2% Florida Marlins

For the record, I voted for the Red Sox. For a very elementary comparison, I am going to use Bill James' Win Shares to come up with a value for each staff. I am only going to use the top four pitchers for a number of reasons. Firstly, I don't know how many win shares ???? recorded for the Cubs last year. Also, Jon Lieber didn't pitch at all last year and only pitched 141 innings in 2002. Since A.J. Burnett only pitched 23 innings last season I will use his win shares from 2002 (thanks to baseballtruth.com).

2003 PITCHING STAFF WIN SHARES

TEAM        WIN SHARES
A's         69 (Hudson 23; Mulder 17; Zito 18; Redman 11)
Cubs        68 (Prior 22; Wood 18; Zambrano 18; Clement 10)
Yankees     67 (Mussina 19; Brown 20; Vazquez 21; Contreras 7)
Red Sox     61 (Martinez 20; Schilling 15; Lowe 12; Kim 14)
Astros      49 (Oswalt 10; Pettitte 15; Clemens 15; Miller 9)
Marlins     49 (Beckett 11; Burnett 14; Willis 14; Penny 10)

I'll admit that this comparison is crude and rudimentary. Curt Schilling, who averaged 24 win shares in 2001-2002 only earned 15 in 2003 due to injuries. Roy Oswalt and Wade Miller also missed time last season, but sported win share averages from 2001-2002 of 17 and 15, respectively.

If the Cubs end up signing Greg Maddux, this table wouldn't look much different because Maddux had only one more win share (11) than Matt Clement. However, Clement's 10 win shares are better than most #5 starters, which is what he would be on that staff. The A's, Cubs, and Yankees are the cream of the crop here, with the Red Sox very close given a full season of Shilling and Tim Wakefield's 12 win shares.

Ex-Met Signings

A couple of familiar faces caught on with new teams today. Jay Payton signed a two-year deal with the San Diego Padres worth $5.5 million. He will earn $1.5 million in 2004 and $3.5 million in 2005, and the Pods have a $4 million team option for 2006. If Payton can stay healthy, Payton will provide decent production and defense in center field. Payton was no doubt helped by the friendly confines of Coors Field in Colorado last season. Some will point to the fact that he hit more homeruns on the road than at home (15 to 13), but he was markedly better in almost every other category at home.

JAY PAYTON'S 2003 HOME ROAD SPLITS

         AVG   OBP   SLG
HOME    .322  .377  .540
AWAY    .281  .330  .483

Payton ranked #32 in National League outfielders in Win Shares last season with 15, just behind Cliff Floyd who only played 108 games. Payton's signing will likely move Xavier Nady back to AAA, which will probably do him some good. He's still only 25, but still needs a lot of work at the plate if he wants to become a productive everyday outfielder in the big leagues. He had an OPS of 712 (.321 OBP, .391 SLG) which is only slightly better than one Roger Cedeno. He showed a little more pop in the minors, posting a SLG of .499 in three seasons.

Like Payton, Matt Franco signed a new contract today. Unlike Payton, Franco will be playing in another hemisphere. Franco signed a 1-year, $750,000 deal with the Chiba Lotte Marines of Japan. If that name rings a bell, it should because former Mets manager Bobby Valentine is the current manager of the Marines. This isn't a big surprise because Bobby V was always a big fan of Matty F. There were rumors a few weeks back that Bobby was trying to Turk Wendell overseas as well. In any event, this looks like a good deal for Franco. He wasn't likely to get a major league deal with any American club, and 750 bones is not bad for a year's "work".

Easy Come, Easy Go

So the Mets didn't bag free agent stud Vladimir Guerrero. So the Mets still have a huge gaping hole in right field. Things could be a lot worse. Disappointment abounds, from Mets fans to players to the entire Mets organization. Even though we were braced from the outset that this was a longshot at best, it's hard not to get your hopes up.

The Mets have done a lot right this offseason. With a few key moves and zero A-List additions, the Mets have gone a long way to help alleviate the pain inflicted by the last two seasons of "baseball" in Queens.

For the latter half of the Steve Phillips era, the Mets made a number of "win now" moves in an effort to get the most out of a core group of players who were getting older and less competent every season. The Mets best season under the Phillips regime was 1999. Sure, they went to the 2000 World Series, but the 1999 team was the best one they sent out there in the past decade.

Once the Mets lost to the Braves in the NLCS and John Olerud took a reasonable deal to go home to Seattle, the hourglass had been flipped and time began ticking away on this ballclub.

Robin Ventura was coming off a career season, and the Mets management struggled to find a suitable replacement for Olerud, eventually settling for Todd Zeile, who had started a grand total of 62 games at first base to that point. He had a respectable first season with the Mets, but the team was the recipient of some good fortune en route to the franchise's first World Series appearance in 15 seasons. They dodged a bullet by not having to face their nemesis, the Braves, in the NL playoffs.

We all know too well where the story goes from here. Despite playing in back-to-back LCS, the Mets were a team and an organization on the decline. The Mets star players (Mike Piazza, Al Leiter, etc.) were already on the wrong side of thirty, with further regression of performance to be expected. Nevertheless, the Mets two-headed ownership demon (Nelson Doubleday and current owner Fred Wilpon) approved a series of moves that, at least in retrospect, ultimately led to the decimation of the franchise, leaving the team and its many many fans scratching their collective heads.

Aside from a handful of leftovers (Piazza, Leiter, John Franco), there remains little at Shea to remind us of those years of near-greatness. Mets general manager Jim Duquette is slowly but steadily rebuilding the foundation of this franchise. The Mets farm system, once completely bereft of talent, is now blossoming, with a number of young arms and quality position players making their way up the organizational ladder, projected to roam the fields of Shea within the next few seasons.

Additionally, management has thrown away the ideas that led to the recent decline, electing to focus on the elements that brought championships to Queens in 1969 and 1986. Pitching and defense win games, as they say. At the very least, they help to put your offense in the position to win those games.

So the Mets didn't sign Vlad Guerrero. I think they played it as well as they could have, though. They waited around long enough so that they actually had a fighting chance to sign the slugger on their own terms. There was a soft market for Guerrero, and the Mets almost landed him. Some may scoff at the Mets offer, calling $30 million guaranteed over three years a lowball pitch. The fact is, the Mets could not secure insurance on Guerrero's back and, based on his medical records and the advice of the Mets physicians, guaranteeing any more money than that would be foolhardy.

I would have been thrilled if Vlad had signed for three guaranteed years, with the potential for $70 million over five seasons if he could, *gasp*, stay healthy enough to clock in for 400 plate appearances per season. I would have been less thrilled if the Mets had assumed all of the risk (as teams seem to be expected to do) and given Guerrero five guaranteed years at $14 million per (as the Angels have apparently done). Let him go, he probably had no intention of playing in New York anyway.

Maybe next year the Mets can convince Carlos Beltran to play right field. Maybe they can lure Magglio Ordonez to the Big Apple. Who knows. I do know that the Mets will be better this year than they were last year, and will be better next year than they are this year. I also know that I like the direction things are going in, I like the plan Jim Duquette has put together and stuck to, and I like the chances that the Mets will be playing meaningful games by 2005.

I have no choice. I'm a Mets fan, and I take what I'm given.

Vlad Update & Mets Mini Camp

According to ESPN.com's Buster Olney, the Orioles are considering making a new offer to Pudge Rodriguez, with the plan being for he and Javy Lopez to both split time between catcher and DH. Such an offer may indicate that the O's will take a pass on Vladimir Guerrero, electing to spend their money on an outfielder from the 2004 free agent class, such as Carlos Beltran or Magglio Ordonez.

* * * * * * * * * *
If you didn't already know, the Mets have been conducting their January Mini Camp in St. Lucie, Florida. NYFanSites.com has been reporting from Florida all week with news and photos of the Mets in action. Check out their daily reports from this week if you haven't already.

Monday: Mini Camp Opens
Tuesday: Braden Looper
Wednesday: Peterson Tinkers With Roberts & Wheeler
Thursday: Davidson Puts On A Show
Friday: Lastings Impression

Dream A Little Dream

According to several sources, the Mets have made an offer to free-agent outfielder Vladimir Guerrero. Based on reports, the offer appears to be worth $30 million over three years, with incentives based on plate appearances that could bring the value closer to $40 million, or approximately the same $13 million annually that the Baltimore Orioles have offered. There is also speculation that the offer contains vesting options for a fourth and fifth season, similarly based on plate appearances.

If all incentives were met (which probably only requires that Guerrero not spend an inordinate amount of time on the disabled list), the total value of the contract would likely be between $65-$70 million over five years, which is almost identical to the terms of Baltimore's offer.

For all intents and purposes, acquiring Vladimir Guerrero amounts to little more than a pipe dream for the Mets (and me). Be that as it may, a pipe dream still requires that there be at least a modicum of hope that something can happen. The fact that Guerrero has not signed yet and that Spring Training is but a month away means that there is something keeping him from signing with Baltimore.

The player's union is no doubt encouraging (read: demanding) Guerrero's agents to take the largest guaranteed offer, which doesn't bode well for the Mets' chances. Regardless, I am, by nature, a hopeless optimist. An answer was originally expected from Guerrero within the next couple of days, but some think it could drag into next week, if not longer. We'll just have to wait and see how it plays out.

* * * * * * * * * *
If you missed any of this week's blogs, please check them out.

Monday: A Closer Look
Tuesday: Link-A-Dink
Wednesday: Things Are Not As Vlad As They Seem

Things Are Not As Vlad As They Seem

You never know. I almost shat myself when I saw this at ESPN.com last night:

Report: Mets interested in signing Guerrero

The likelihood of the Mets signing Vladimir Guerrero is remote at best. He has an offer on the table from Baltimore for 5 years, $65 million, that has seemingly been out there since he became a free agent. The Dodgers and Marlins are allegedly interested, though my guess is that any deal with Florida would be contingent on a new stadium deal (a la the Mike Lowell deal).

We've known all long that Guerrero desires a new home with a significant Dominican population. Baltimore does not fit that bill. Florida does, but there are contract issues there that I am skeptical about. New York can definitely cash in here, as it sports a large Dominican contingency, as well as a general wealth of spanish-speaking individuals.

Guerrero's fear of the big stage spotlight appears to have been overblown, as his agent has testified to the contrary.

The hangup, as usual, is the money and contract length. Mets GM Jim Duquette has gone on record as saying that his organization has put a three-year cap on free agent contracts. This could actually work to Guerrero's advantage. Lets say the Mets ink him to a three-year deal worth $15-$16 annually, plus a couple of mutual options that could bring it up to five-years, $80 million. Guerrero could then go out there for the next three seasons and continue to tear apart National League pitching (he sports a career 978 OPS). After his three seasons, he'll still only be 30 years old. If the market opens up a bit for him, he will have proven that:

a) he can play in the big city
b) his back is fine
c) he's one of the five best players in baseball

If he wants out of the contract at that point, the Yankees could then sign him for four-or-five years at $16-$18 million per. If he can't get that kind of deal, he can stay with the Mets for another year or two at $16 million, and continue to test the waters after each subsequent season.

Plus, with the Mets he would actually have a chance to compete for something other than third place. Granted, the Mets are not in position to win anything in 2004 (though Guerrero could be enough to push them from a .500 team to a Marlins-esque underdog). However, they stand a very good chance of competing in 2005 and 2006, particularly with Scott Kazmir and David Wright making their way to big Shea.

If you want Vlad, you can now make your voice heard. Head on over to SignVlad.com, where you can sign an online petition or fill out a mail-in petition to send Mets owner Fred Wilpon and beseech him to sign Guerrero.

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Believe it or not, there are two new Mets blogs to check out on the sidebar. The first is East Coast Agony, a two-headed blog monster featuring two long-suffering baseball fans: Red Sox fan Big K and Mets fan Metropolitan Mike.

The second is The Baseball Blog of Oz, which discusses current Mets events, as well as other local professional sports.

Stop by both and say hi.

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SaberMets passed the 10,000 visitor mark yesterday, which is an honor to me and a testament to you, the readers. Given the large number of return visitors, I realize that many of you have eschewed better judgment by continuing to read the nonsensical digressions of an obsessed baseball fan, and for that I thank you.

Things Are Not As Vlad As They Seem

Back in October, I wrote none too favorably about Mike Cameron. With the Mets having signed Cameron on Saturday to a three-year, $19.5 million deal (backloaded, with an option for a fourth year at $6.5 million), I decided to revisit my analysis of him.

The mistake I made a couple of months ago was that I only considered Cameron's offensive contributions, which are below average for an outfielder. In particular, Cameron's strikeout rate is as high as Grant Roberts. The flaw in my evaluation of Cameron was that I neglected to consider his defensive contributions to a game, which are considerable.

There are a number of metrics that sabermetricians use to evaluate defense: Many are useful, none are perfect. ESPN.com uses Range Factor (RF) and Zone Rating (ZR). RF is the total numbers of outs that a player contributes (putouts plus assists) per nine innings. ZR is the percentage of balls that a player gets to within his defensive zone, as defined by Stats, Inc.

A third stat that I like to use is Win Shares. Win Shares is a system developed by Bill James who, as it turns out, developed many of the statistics that I and other sabermetrically-inclined individuals use on a daily basis. For a great review and synopsis of Win Shares, check out this article by Rob Neyer. The gist of Win Shares is that, by using James' extremely complex methodology, one can divide a team's actual wins into thirds. So the 2003 Mets, who won 66 games, had a total of 198 win shares. The cumulative total of offensive and defensive contributions by all players on the 2003 Mets will add up to these 198 "thirds" of wins.

Last season, Mets outfielders posted the following win shares:

Player          2003 Defensive Win Shares
Roger Cedeno              1.79
Jeff Duncan               1.57
Timo Perez                1.47
Cliff Floyd               1.26
Raul Gonzalez             1.22
Tsuyoshi Shinjo           1.19
Joe McEwing               0.20
Prentice Redman           0.12
Matt Watson               0.05
Tony Clark        & nbsp;       0.01
                          ----
Total                     8.88

Mike Cameron had 7.73 win shares in 2003 ... by himself! That's roughly one fewer win share than the entire Mets revolving door outfield. He had more defensive win shares than any outfielder in baseball. Torii Hunter? 6.14 win shares. Carlos Beltran? 6.50 win shares. Andruw Jones? 6.04. No outfielder contributes as much defensively as Mike Cameron.

Plus, there's reason to believe that he'll be even more valuable to the Mets. Last year, Cameron was flanked by Ichiro and Randy Winn, who both finished in the top ten in the AL in defensive win shares. The Mets ... well, they were the Mets. No offense to Cliff Floyd and whomever will be patrolling right field (Brian Jordan?), but Cameron playing centerfield will be like parking a Ferrari between two Hyundais.

What makes me feel even better about this signing is that Billy Beane wanted him bad. Regarding his unsuccessful pursuit of the gold-glove outfielder, Beane said that Cameron:

"... in terms of value and how much he impacts a defense, is the best player out there. I could show you how many runs Mike saves a year, and what he means to a team. He'd be great for the Mets. That's why I don't want them to get him. With that ballpark, and that [fly-ball] pitching staff, Mike would be perfect."

The Mets put together an offseason plan that focused on making the team more athletic with improved defense up-the-middle. With last week's signing of Kazuo Matsui and this weekend's haul of Mike Cameron, they've done a great job executing that plan while maintaining payroll flexibility and restricting contract lengths to three years or less. Jim Duquette has also done a great job of not mortgaging the future by not sacrificing draft picks for either of his two signings (Cameron was non-tendered and Matsui was a Japanese free agent). The Mets may not be contending for a playoff spot this year, but they will be much improved over last season and will provide plenty of hope for the future of this organization.

Link-A-Dink

I am so horribly lazy. That, compounded with the fact that there isn't a lot of real interesting baseball news going on (unless you consider a Scott Stewart trade interesting, Mrs. Stewart's opinion notwithstanding), has left me with little to write about and even less motivation to do so.

With that in mind, I present to you some recent links regarding the Mets top prospects.

BaseballAmerica.com: Top Ten Prospects: New York Mets

If you didn't already know, BaseballAmerica.com is the top dog in minor league coverage. This particular article whets your appetite with the Mets top stud, Scott Kazmir. You then must subscribe to their online service in order to view the rest of the top ten. You can also Pre-Order their 2004 Prospect Handbook like I did. Even if you don't, I will fill everyone in on the rest of the top ten when my copy arrives in March.

BaseballAmerica.com: Top Ten Prospects: Mets Chat

If you're into reading about Mets prospects and farmhands, look no further. Baseball America's J.J. Cooper sat down for three hours and chatted with one and all about the Mets farm system, prospects, etc. It's a long read, but you're bound to learn something new here.

The Minors First: Top 100 Minor League Prospects

A bit disappointingly, Scott Kazmir is only #14 on the list. Of course, he's only a little over a year out of high school. The Mets have a total of five players in the top 100, including David Wright, Matt Peterson, Justin Huber, and Victor Diaz. Some nice insight on each of the players.

ProspectReport.com: 2003 New York Mets

This list was actually compiled back in April 2003, so you'll see some names that aren't prospects anymore because they're with the big club. There should be a 2004 list up soon, so keep an eye out for that.

* * * * * * * * * *
Before I go, I'd like to pass along my deepest sympathies to the family and friends of Frank Edwin "Tug" McGraw Jr., who lost his battle with brain cancer today. He pitched for the Mets long before my time, but his words "You Gotta Believe" still ring true today.

I'd also like to give my thoughts and best wishes to my buddy Mike and his family, who put their six-year-old cocker spaniel Hunter to sleep on Sunday. Even though he wouldn't let me give him the Pedigree a few years back when I used to call him HHH, I hope he's at peace now.

Link-A-Dink

I am so horribly lazy. That, compounded with the fact that there isn't a lot of real interesting baseball news going on (unless you consider a Scott Stewart trade interesting, Mrs. Stewart's opinion notwithstanding), has left me with little to write about and even less motivation to do so.

With that in mind, I present to you some recent links regarding the Mets top prospects.

BaseballAmerica.com: Top Ten Prospects: New York Mets

If you didn't already know, BaseballAmerica.com is the top dog in minor league coverage. This particular article whets your appetite with the Mets top stud, Scott Kazmir. You then must subscribe to their online service in order to view the rest of the top ten. You can also Pre-Order their 2004 Prospect Handbook like I did. Even if you don't, I will fill everyone in on the rest of the top ten when my copy arrives in March.

BaseballAmerica.com: Top Ten Prospects: Mets Chat

If you're into reading about Mets prospects and farmhands, look no further. Baseball America's J.J. Cooper sat down for three hours and chatted with one and all about the Mets farm system, prospects, etc. It's a long read, but you're bound to learn something new here.

The Minors First: Top 100 Minor League Prospects

A bit disappointingly, Scott Kazmir is only #14 on the list. Of course, he's only a little over a year out of high school. The Mets have a total of five players in the top 100, including David Wright, Matt Peterson, Justin Huber, and Victor Diaz. Some nice insight on each of the players.

ProspectReport.com: 2003 New York Mets

This list was actually compiled back in April 2003, so you'll see some names that aren't prospects anymore because they're with the big club. There should be a 2004 list up soon, so keep an eye out for that.

* * * * * * * * * *
Before I go, I'd like to pass along my deepest sympathies to the family and friends of Frank Edwin "Tug" McGraw Jr., who lost his battle with brain cancer today. He pitched for the Mets long before my time, but his words "You Gotta Believe" still ring true today.

I'd also like to give my thoughts and best wishes to my buddy Mike and his family, who put their six-year-old cocker spaniel Hunter to sleep on Sunday. Even though he wouldn't let me give him the Pedigree a few years back when I used to call him HHH, I hope he's at peace now.

A Closer Look

Ah, the closer. Pretty standard, really. Usually a fireballer, summoned from the bowels of the bullpen to shut down the opposing team's hitters for one inning. Three outs is all he's asked to record. If he does so, and he does so well, he will be richly rewarded with praise, fortune, etc. Should he ever falter in this task, however, he shall rue the day. A fickle bunch, these closers. Untouchable one day, uncomfortable the next. If you can't stand the heat, stay out of the kitchen, they say.

And so it was, the Mets, having pawned off "beleaguered" closer Armando Benitez last season and spent much of this offseason searching for his replacement, even if he were to be an interim one. You heard the names tossed around: Billy Koch, Ugeth Urbina, Keith Foulke.

Take a look at the following career lines:

CAREER

            ERA+   K/9    BB/9   HR/9   SV%
Player A    113    5.66   3.56   0.71   69%
Player B    144   11.77   4.84   1.03   85%

Even though Player B is more prone to the gopher ball, he is clearly the better closer. You must be saying to yourself, "Self? It's brutally obvious that Player A is the closer we dumped last year and Player B is the next big thing, our closer of the present, a player I would gladly give a two-year, $6.5 million deal with a team option for a third year at $5 million with a $250k buyout. Why, even somebody with as many textbook-case neurological disorders such as myself can tell that".

I'm sure you've already seen through my thinly-veiled rhetoric to come to the conclusion that Player A is new Met Braden Looper while Player B is Met castoff and new Marlins closer Armando Benitez.

Benitez had clearly worn out his welcome in New York. He will probably do for Florida what he has done for the Mets these past few seasons. Namely, save the majority of his games, strike out a batter-per-inning, and give up a few too many homeruns, particularly in important situations. That, if anything, is what has haunted Benitez throughout his career. Even before he was traded to the Mets (in what was one of the unheralded acts of ingenuity on Steve Phillips part, by netting Benitez and then-speedster Roger Cedeno for Todd Hundley), Benitez had post-season issues with the Orioles.

The two biggest games he blew, for me at least, were Game 6 of the NLCS in 1999 against the Braves and Game 1 of the World Series in 2000 against the Yankees. That's not to say there weren't other memorable heartaches, just that those hurt the most.

The big picture, much to the dismay of Benitez-haters, is that he has actually been one of the best closers in baseball over the past five seasons, and will continue to be one.

Looper is a fresh start, though. He's a former first-round pick of the Cardinals, and the Mets are obviously hoping that pitching coach Rick Peterson can do for him what he's done for Billy Koch and Keith Foulke these past two seasons. Unlike Benitez, Looper doesn't give up a lot of home runs, and actually does a very good job of keeping the ball on the ground.

CAREER GB/FB RATIO

Looper     1.91
Benitez    0.67

With the Mets now-solid up-the-middle defense, this will be a welcome addition. At the very least, the Mets are not paying too much over too long, and Looper will keep the spot warm for one of the Mets potential future closers.

A Closer Look

Ah, the closer. Pretty standard, really. Usually a fireballer, summoned from the bowels of the bullpen to shut down the opposing team's hitters for one inning. Three outs is all he's asked to record. If he does so, and he does so well, he will be richly rewarded with praise, fortune, etc. Should he ever falter in this task, however, he shall rue the day. A fickle bunch, these closers. Untouchable one day, uncomfortable the next. If you can't stand the heat, stay out of the kitchen, they say.

And so it was, the Mets, having pawned off "beleaguered" closer Armando Benitez last season and spent much of this offseason searching for his replacement, even if he were to be an interim one. You heard the names tossed around: Billy Koch, Ugeth Urbina, Keith Foulke.

Take a look at the following career lines:

CAREER

            ERA+   K/9    BB/9   HR/9   SV%
Player A    113    5.66   3.56   0.71   69%
Player B    144   11.77   4.84   1.03   85%

Even though Player B is more prone to the gopher ball, he is clearly the better closer. You must be saying to yourself, "Self? It's brutally obvious that Player A is the closer we dumped last year and Player B is the next big thing, our closer of the present, a player I would gladly give a two-year, $6.5 million deal with a team option for a third year at $5 million with a $250k buyout. Why, even somebody with as many textbook-case neurological disorders such as myself can tell that".

I'm sure you've already seen through my thinly-veiled rhetoric to come to the conclusion that Player A is new Met Braden Looper while Player B is Met castoff and new Marlins closer Armando Benitez.

Benitez had clearly worn out his welcome in New York. He will probably do for Florida what he has done for the Mets these past few seasons. Namely, save the majority of his games, strike out a batter-per-inning, and give up a few too many homeruns, particularly in important situations. That, if anything, is what has haunted Benitez throughout his career. Even before he was traded to the Mets (in what was one of the unheralded acts of ingenuity on Steve Phillips part, by netting Benitez and then-speedster Roger Cedeno for Todd Hundley), Benitez had post-season issues with the Orioles.

The two biggest games he blew, for me at least, were Game 6 of the NLCS in 1999 against the Braves and Game 1 of the World Series in 2000 against the Yankees. That's not to say there weren't other memorable heartaches, just that those hurt the most.

The big picture, much to the dismay of Benitez-haters, is that he has actually been one of the best closers in baseball over the past five seasons, and will continue to be one.

Looper is a fresh start, though. He's a former first-round pick of the Cardinals, and the Mets are obviously hoping that pitching coach Rick Peterson can do for him what he's done for Billy Koch and Keith Foulke these past two seasons. Unlike Benitez, Looper doesn't give up a lot of home runs, and actually does a very good job of keeping the ball on the ground.

CAREER GB/FB RATIO

Looper     1.91
Benitez    0.67

With the Mets now-solid up-the-middle defense, this will be a welcome addition. At the very least, the Mets are not paying too much over too long, and Looper will keep the spot warm for one of the Mets potential future closers.