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Hey Mr. Fantasy

For those of you who are interested, I have started a Yahoo! Fantasy Baseball league. There are a total of 20 slots, so sign up soon. I am going to set the autodraft for the middle of March, so get your player rankings set up as soon as you can.

League ID#: 166976
Password: abcd1234

Please only sign up if you intend to play the whole season.

Kaz Matsui Hurts Finger

According to ESPN.com, Kaz Matsui injured a finger on his right hand during infield drills.

Matsui needed two stitches near the nail of the middle finger on his right hand after being hit by a grounder, the team said. His fingertip was cut and the nail was bent back.

He will reportedly be sidelined for a week. Jose Reyes will not be playing any shortstop while Matsui recovers. "Average Joe" McEwing will be filling in.

The injury doesn't sound serious, but it's certainly not good news. Matsui had been making great progress adapting to grass fields and was gelling with Reyes, so this will set him back a week or more. It could be worse, but along with Mike Cameron's bone spurs, Spring Training has not gotten off to the start we had hoped for.

Bloggers Get Some Ink

Thanks to Peter Abraham of The Journal News, blogging may become more recognized as a legitimate form of media. In his article today, Peter features interviews and quotes from a number of Mets and Yankees bloggers, including Mike from East Coast Agony, Stephen from The Eddie Kranepool Society, Kaley from Flushing Local, the soon-to-be-divorced Norm from The Shea Hot Corner, as well as Vinny and Scott from Yankees, Mets, and the Rest.

If you haven't done so already, chck out their blogs, as they each bring something unique and extraordinary to our blogging community.

If you're new to this site, allow me to introduce myself. My name is Eric Simon, I'm 25, and I live and work in New Jersey. I've been a Mets fan for as long as I can remember, and a suffering one for just as long. If you're reading this, you probably already know that I'm very passionate about baseball and the Mets, as I'm sure you are as well, though perhaps your passion is for another team. It is this passion that drives me to know all I can about the game, the players, the numbers.

I started this blog for my own amusement, mainly to vent and wax analytical about the Mets, and mostly to be read by my friends. The fact that other actual real people like yourself take the time out of their day to read what I have to say is astonishing to me, and very gratifying.

Having said that, if anyone has any questions about the Mets, baseball, or anything else, or would like to see some topic covered in detail here, please feel free to drop me a line.

Thanks for stopping by, and happy reading.

Mets Prospect Watch

Unlike in recent years where the Mets farm system has been barren as a result of trades, the team actually has one of the better systems in baseball in terms of peak talent, though not necessarily in terms of depth. ESPN.com has entered into a partnership with Baseball America, and present the Top 25 Prospects in baseball.

If you're not an insider member, you will only be able to view the Top 5, none of which are Mets. Fortunately for you I am, so I have posted excerpts below of the three Mets prospects that are found on the list.

7. Kazuo Matsui, ss, Mets

By most conventional definitions of "prospect," Matsui doesn't fit. He's 28 and has played most of nine seasons in Japan's Pacific League. But he's rookie-eligible, making him eligible for this list. He won't be the 30-30 guy he was in Japan in 2002, but should be one of the best shortstops in the National League thanks to his plus speed, strong frame, cannon throwing arm and excellent hands at shortstop. He also should team with second-year phenom Jose Reyes to form a dynamic double-play combination.

It was a bit surprising to see Kazuo "Kaz" Matsui listed here as a Mets Top Prospect, but by their definition he is one, and he has the potential to be a big star in the Major Leagues. He has average power, plus-plus speed, plus-plus defense, and, from what I've heard and seen in the limited footage available, is an electric player who promises to make everyone around him take notice.

12. Scott Kazmir, lhp, Mets

Kazmir and Expos righthander Clint Everts became the first pair of high school pitchers drafted from the same school in the first round, though Cypress Falls (Texas) High still posted a losing record that year. Mets fans hope Kazmir has better luck in the big leagues. Few pitchers have Kazmir's electric stuff, and few use it better. With two plus-plus pitches (94-96 mph fastball, power slider), he has averaged 12.7 strikeouts per nine innings as a pro. Kazmir is just 6-foot, 170 pounds, and the Mets have been careful with his workload since he signed (he's pitched just 127 pro innings since signing in August 2002), so he's still gaining experience but could advance quickly in 2004.

To be honest, I was a little surprised to see the Mets other "Kaz" this far down on the list. Other lists have ranked him as high as the Top 5, but its nice to see him on here nonetheless. The Mets have certainly babied him a bit, but they are no doubt still reeling from the disappointment of Generation-K almost a decade ago. Kazmir is the third highest rated pitcher on the list, and should be #1 (among pitchers) when next season rolls around.

21. David Wright, 3b, Mets

Surprisingly for a New York prospect, the hype hasn't caught up to Wright's talent yet. His talent is concentrated where the Mets need it most -- at the plate. He commands the strike zone exceptionally well for a young hitter, helping him pound hitter's pitches with a smooth swing that produces power now and projects more in the future. He has been a streaky hitter, which the Mets chalk up in part to his own work ethic. At times he works so hard before games that he wears himself out. Defensively, he's a Gold Glover waiting to happen, showing a strong, accurate arm and steady hands.

Now that Jose Reyes has ascended to the big show, David Wright is the Mets best hitting prospect. Not only that, he blogs, and even has a ballsy e-mail address: futuremet3B@yahoo.com.

Mets Spring Training Link-A-Dink

The Star Ledger: Mets: Piazza is ready for the stretch

After feeling searing pain tear through his 34-year-old groin last May, Piazza knew he had to take more aggressive steps to ensure that as his body ages, it does so with more suppleness and elasticity.

Whoa, doggie. Believe it or not, this article is actually about how Piazza has a yoga guru who has helped him with his flexibility and general bodily wellness. Apparently his girlfriend introduced him to this yoga class in L.A. and Mike has invited the instructor to Spring Training to observe him. That's all well and good, but here's where it gets goofy:

In addition to the stretching and breathing exercises, Piazza is also trying to adjust his diet to reduce the amount of cooked animal products he ingests.

[...]

"I'm not doing anything radical," he said, "But I'm trying to eat more fruits and vegetables. Things that are alive breed life. Things that are dead breed death."

What the flurk does that mean? If anyone can enlighten me, please do so, because I'm at a complete loss. Reports are that Piazza is in great shape and is excited about learning a new position, let's just hope he doesn't start flaking out.

New York Post: Piazza's Glove Story

This article is less about Piazza than it is a genuinely upbeat quote-a-thon, as many Mets enjoyed their first full day of Spring Training yesterday, as rain washed out most of practice on Wednesday. The players are excited about their teammates and about the upcoming season.

John Franco on the surprisingly large fan turnout:

"It's always good to see the fans come out, especially [since] the last two years we've been kind of underachievers. And to see them come out here and support us the way they do, it's great."

Todd Zeile on the Mets new double-play duo:

"Watching Matsui and Reyes work up the middle together. That's got a chance to be something special."

Tom Glavine on those two, as well as new centerfielder Mike Cameron:

"You're going to see guys, especially early on in spring training, sitting here watching games with a lot of excitement anticipating something spectacular out of any one of those guys virtually every game."

"We saw a glimpse of it last year with Jose. Virtually every day that he played, he did something really special out there. Both Kaz and Mike Cameron are those type of players defensively as well."

Despite two consecutive last place finishes, it's hard not to get excited about this team. They have a good chance at playing .500 ball this season, which isn't going to make the playoffs but will at least keep people interested. They have a good collection of players that you may actually want to watch play baseball, as opposed to the Mo Vaughn's and Robbie Alomar's who I wouldn't get off the toilet to cheer for.

Jon Heyman Can Kiss My Ass

Spring Training is underway in Port St. Lucie, FL, yet all Jon Heyman can think to write about is how the Mets "missed out" on Alex Rodriguez. Mike Piazza is in camp, is in great shape, and is actually excited about taking grounders at first base, as Jon Heyman sits in his cubicle dreaming up new ways to "stick it to the Mets". Well, Jon Heyman can kiss my ass.

You'll have to excuse my unpleasantries, but it's been a week since "the trade", not to mention three years since the Mets elected not to offer Rodriguez a contract, and certain "sportswriters" (note the quotes) continue to mercilessly beat the same dead horse. If you haven't read Mr. Heyman's latest reviling vituperation, set your reading level to "dim".

Every local paper has their own tabloid sports columnist, and it just so happens that they're all Yankee fans. They all go to great lengths to point out the Mets recent failures with glee, allthewhile sucking up to the Empire and leaving me wondering why I continue to waste my time reading their tripe.

In this particular article, Heyman reminds us why the Mets were, are, and always will be terrible.

The Mets' decision not to try for Alex Rodriguez when he was a free agent after the 2000 season has haunted them for three years and could haunt them for seven more.

Actually, most of us are all-too-happy to put the Alex Rodriguez saga behind us, and then some useless scribe makes us wonder how we talked outselves out of gouging our eyes out to avoid reading any more of their drivel. I guess I can only speak for myself, but I think the majority of Mets fans are over Rodriguez, are genuinely excited about the Mets and the direction they are going in terms of organizational philosophy and player development, and fully expect the Mets to field a playoff-contending team as soon as 2005.

He continues hemmorhaging excrement:

Mets owner Fred Wilpon said this past week that when the price "escalated to $252 million, we were out of it." But actually, the Mets pulled out way before the numbers got stratospheric. Maybe A-Rod was going to go for the money all along, but the Mets erred by not making a reasonable offer. And they're still paying for that error.

After going to the World Series in 2000, many forget that the Mets were in playoff contention until the last week of the season in 2001. If the Mets had signed Rodriguez, there's no telling where the team would have gone from there.

There was still a huge rift in ownership between Fred Wilpon and former co-owner Nelson Doubleday, and the organizational philosophy (i.e signing/trading for big-ticket players) was still in place. Even with Rodriguez, the Mets could still very well have fallen apart, and could be in a very similar position as they find themselves today, with back-to-back last place finishes, and potentially saddled with a $200 million contract.

Blah, blah, blah...

They compounded things by spending some of that money on the dreadful quartet of Mo Vaughn, Roberto Alomar, Jeromy Burnitz and Roger Cedeño. Cedeño is all that's left, and he'll probably be released this spring. Meanwhile, Rodriguez now will work eight miles to the north, in the Bronx.

Signing Rodriguez would not have precluded the Mets from acquiring any of the players Heyman mentions. They were all huge disappointments, there's no question about that. However, Mo Vaughn was acquired for Kevin Appier, who had three years and some $30 million left on his contract. He had one decent year with Anaheim, and then completely fell apart, was released by the Angels, and then signed with Kansas City for something around the league minimum.

When the Mets traded for Roberto Alomar after the 2001 season, everyone and their mother thought the Mets flat-out robbed Cleveland. He was 4th in MVP voting in 2001, had a 149 OPS+, drove in 100 runs, stole 30 bases, had a .415 OBP, won another gold glove, and so on and so forth. In exchange for arguably the best player in the American League that year, the Mets gave up Matt Lawton, top prospect Alex Escobar, a sack of bats, a bag of balls, and a jock strap. Clearly it didn't work out, but that looked like a steal.

Roger Cedeno hit .293 with 55 stolen bases before signing with the Mets, and Jeromy Burnitz had averaged 33 homers, 83 walks, and an OPS+ of 124 over the previous five seasons. Even the clairvoyance of Jon Heyman couldn't have predicted that both would completely fall off a cliff.

Not only that, but Shea Stadium is actually 9.8 miles from Yankee Stadium, not 8 miles as Heyman claims (source: Yahoo! Maps).

According to Heyman, Rodriguez might have offered the Mets a hometown discount:

Friends say Rodriguez even suggested shortly after going to Texas that he'd have come home to be a Met for "60 cents on the dollar," which translates to $151.2 million.

I don't believe for a minute that super-agent Scott Boras would have let the #1 free agent in the history of baseball (see Jon, I can pile on the hyperbole too) take a dime less than the best offer on the table. Boras, who rolled into the 2000 Winter Meetings with his 80-page A-Rod manifesto in tow, would have sooner skied the icy slopes of Hell before he let his client accept an inferior deal.

And the final turtle-head shakes loose:

We know Rodriguez was willing to sacrifice his coveted shortstop position to come home to the Yankees, so it isn't hard to believe he'd have come for less than $252 million three years ago. Exactly how much less, we'll never know. What we do know is that this was the biggest mistake in Mets history.

I find it difficult to believe that NOT signing someone to a 10-year, $200 million contract is the worst mistake any team has ever made. Even with Rodriguez, there's still a good chance the Mets would have fallen apart and ended up in last place, a-la the Texas Rangers. The Rangers DID sign Rodriguez and they DID end up in last place three straight years. It's safe to say that signing Rodriguez was a colossal mistake on their part. Is that to say that not signing him would have been an even bigger mistake?

Surely trading away Nolan Ryan, Hall-of-Famer and one of the five-or-ten best pitchers of the past forty years, for basically Jim Fregosi, who played in 146 mostly unmemorable games over two seasons for the Mets, should be considered a bigger mistake than not signing Alex Rodriguez to a ridiculous contract? I'm sure if I sat down for a few minutes I could think of a few more (feel free to post them in the comments).

So to the Jon Heyman's, Joel Sherman's, and Bob Klapisch's of the world, spare me your anti-Met pro-Yankee rhetoric, and give me a call when you write something that I might actually consider picking up my dog's sh*t with.

A Tradition Of Futility

Coinciding with $10 million worth of renovations, the Mets announced yesterday that their Spring Training facility in Port St. Lucis, FL, previously named Thomas J. White Stadium, has been re-christened "Tradition Field".

Mets COO Jeff Wilpon said:

"We couldn't have a more perfect name for our newly renovated stadium. Tradition Field is a classic name that is not only synonymous with the Treasure Coast, but also with the first-rate values of our organization. We know our fans will enjoy all the tremendous new amenities."

Once I finished gagging myself with a stick, it didn't take long to surmise that the Mets borrowed a page from the Yankees' book, whose own Spring Training facility is similarly yet less ambiguously named "Legends Field".

Feedback: What do you think of the new name? What "tradition" is it emblematic of?

A-Rod Not That Great

By now, hopefully everyone has come to grips with the fact that Alex Rodriguez has been traded to the New York Yankees. If you haven't, it's probably because people like Bob Klapisch and Joel Sherman keep bringing it up, all-the-while taking not-so-subtle jabs at the Mets. In his latest dropping, "Klap" questions why the Mets didn't phone Texas themselves and dangle Jose Reyes in exchange for Rodriguez. According to a "major league executive":

"Why didn't they pick up the phone and try to trade (Jose) Reyes?" said the executive. "He's going to be a great player and costs a lot less than (Alfonso) Soriano. One guy is making $5.4 million, the other is making $300,000. I don't think that's such a great deal for Texas. Reyes might have made more sense if someone had been smart enough to think of it."

A person familiar with Klapisch's way of thinking revealed to me, on the condition that I mention him by name, that the "major league executive" was actually the janitorial supervisor for the Anaheim Angels. Despite his best efforts, Klapisch actually brings up an interesting point. If you're the GM of the Mets, do you pick up the phone?

I used to think, "Yes, absolutely", but I'm not so sure anymore. It's not that Rodriguez isn't a great player, because he is. With the Mets going in a direction of youth, it doesn't seem prudent to spend $16 million on one player, especially if the talent cost is arguably the best position player to come through this organization in almost twenty years. Twenty is the number of the day, it would seem, as Reyes is only that many years old (we think). If he adapts to the switch to second base as many hope he does, he may prove just as valuable as he would have at shortstop, given the dearth of offensive talent at the keystone position.

The other problem, as I see it, is that Rodriguez, despite his many, many talents, may not be as good as his reputation or his ubiquitous label of "best player in baseball" have led us to believe. Over the past three seasons, Alex Rodriguez has an OPS (on-base percentage plus slugging percentage) of 1.011, which is phenomenal. However, EIGHT players have been better over that same span:

OPS 2001-2003

1    Barry Bonds               1.349   
2    Todd Helton               1.071   
3    Manny Ramirez             1.037   
4    Jim Thome                 1.036   
5    Jason Giambi              1.035   
6    Sammy Sosa                1.032   
7    Albert Pujols             1.025   
8    Larry Walker              1.014   
9    Alex Rodriguez            1.011   
10   Brian Giles               1.003 

Manny Ramirez, who Rodriguez would have been traded for had Red Sox owner John Henry not "failed" in his efforts to reach an agreement, is 3rd to Rodriguez' 9th.

Not only that, Rodriguez has spent his last three seasons in Texas, which has recorded park factors of 100, 112, and 110 since 2001. What about Ramirez playing at Fenway, you ask? Fenway Park, notoriously a good hitters park, has recorded park factors of 101, 98, and 105 since 2001. Jim Thome, who also has a higher OPS than Rodriguez, has seen park factors of 102, 93 (Cleveland) and 95 (Philadelphia). Jason Giambi? 93, 98, and 96. Don't even get me started on Barry Bonds, who has slugged his way through park factors of 91, 91 and a surprising 99 to annihilate the competition.

Rodriguez has won back-to-back gold gloves as a shortstop, but he's not even a shortstop anymore! Even if he were, many defensive metrics suggest that he's a good defensive player, but hardly great. Couple that with the fact that he's learning a new position, and he projects to be average defensively, at best. He's a very good athlete, but a few months of Spring Training aren't going to make him an ace at the hot corner.

At best, I would say Rodriguez is the fourth best hitter in baseball (behind God, Pujols, and Ramirez), though you could make an argument for a half dozen other players. Take away his gold gloves, and he becomes one of the better hitters in the game, playing a defensive position he isn't accustomed to, and in a park that is much less friendly to hitters than he's used to. He IS batting in a better lineup than he has in the past, but it's not like Juan Gonzalez, Rafael Palmeiro, and Pudge Rodriguez are meager with the stick.

There is no question that Alex Rodriguez is one of the elite players in baseball, but you'd have a tough time convincing me that he is the best, as so many people might have you believe.

Feedback: Do you think Alex Rodriguez is the best player in the game? Do you think he's the best player not named Barry Bonds?

Soriano's A Dirty Liar

According to a report in the Daily News, Alfonso Soriano lied about his age. The Dominican-born Soriano had been reporting his birthday as January 7, 1978, though it turns out he is really two years older. Apparently, Soriano and his agent approached Yankees GM Brian Cashman with the news last season. Cashman said:

"Sori's a good guy and it was something on his mind. He wanted us to know first, before it got out. It would've been updated in our media guide this year.

We never would've known about it if he didn't want to tell us. He told us when he was young, he did something stupid. A two-year difference in a 40-40-type player (homers and steals), you look at the numbers and it's not that big of a deal."

In other Sori-related news, the Mets reportedly contacted the Texas Rangers to inquire about Soriano, according to the New York Post. My favorite line from the article:

According to a source familiar with the Mets' thinking, the Amazin's called the Rangers this week to inquire about Soriano - but were told he wasn't available. The teams did not exchange proposals.

Since when does someone "familiar with the Mets thinking" qualify as a credible, documentable source? It may as well have been, "Dominican Lou, the super in my cousin Tony's apartment building, had this to say...".

Quote-A-Thon

Jon Heyman of Newsday on the position controversy between A-Rod and Derek Jeter and his take on sabermetricians:

"The arrangement is fine for now. Rodriguez will be better at third base, and Jeter is better at shortstop than range-crazed stat guys think."

Yankees GM Brian Cashman's absurd explanation as to why Jeter, despite ranking among the worst shortstops in the game, will continue to play the position in lieu of Rodriguez:

"You go with the man who brought you to the dance, and you stick with him. Derek Jeter continues to get us to the dance. You don't mess with success."

Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, on who the Yankees might pluck from the Cardinals' roster to fill their hole at second-base:

"But, on the other side of the coin is a fellow who, after just one pro season, hit .306 with three homers in that same 2001 camp. He not only made it to April, he got even better. His name: Albert Pujols.

So far, the Yankees haven't tried to acquire him. But they do need a second baseman and Pujols appeared there briefly in the 2001 All-Star Game."

And last but not least, Al Leiter gets in on the act, defending the Mets direction and the abuse they have taken over not signing A-Rod:

"First of all, the Mets are definitely on the right track, going for younger, more athletic players. But whatever our failure was not to sign him -- and we've been reminded of that over and over again -- at least before he was buried away down in Texas. Now he's just a few miles away across the river in the Bronx, and we get to hear about his exploits all the time.

I don't think salt in the wound describes it enough. It's more like rubbing salt, and then pouring hydrogen peroxide and rubbing alcohol and rust in there at the same time."

Zing. Burn.

A-Rod Comes Home

I suppose I would be remiss if I didn't talk a bit about the now-inevitable acquisition of Alex Rodriguez by the New York Yankees. As other like-minded bloggers have already noted, the news of this deal makes me sick to my stomach, for so many different reasons. Not the least of which is the fact that, after cash and salaries change hands, the Yankees will only be on the hook for $16 million per year for A-Rod's age 29-35 seasons. In New York. Under the spotlight. Where everyone will fall in love with him. Playing for the Yankees.

Of course, my infatuation with Alex Rodriguez is no secret, which makes this news even harder to swallow. Unless by some miracle this deal falls through, I am going to be under the assumption that A-Rod will be the starting third-baseman for the Yankees in 2004.

You're probably asking yourself, "Why third base?" Derek Jeter is, by almost any objective measure other than 'making jumping throws to first base' and 'apple of Tim McCarver's eye', a lousy defensive shortstop, and may in fact be the worse defensive shortstop in baseball. Plus, Alex Rodriguez is, by at least some objective measures, a good defensive shortstop, and by almost every objective measure, aside from the two I just mentioned, a significantly better defensive shortstop than Derek Jeter.

Don't believe me? Using MGL's UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating), since 2000, Derek Jeter has cost his team an average of 28 runs per 162 games, which is worse than every other infielder in baseball. A-Rod, meanwhile, has saved his team a marginal 5 runs per 162 games which, while not excellent, is 33 runs better than Jetes. Not a fan of newfangled metrics like UZR? How about these:

2000-2003 DEFENSIVE STATISTICS (MLB RANK IN PARENTHESES)

               A-ROD     JETES
FIELDING %     .984 (4)  .970 (19)
PUTOUTS        1008 (1)   826 (8)
DOUBLE PLAYS    458 (1)   265 (18)
RANGE          4.50 (5)  3.77 (26)

Rodriguez has also won two Gold Gloves to Jeter's zero. Granted, such a move would hurt Derek's feelings something awful, but is that really worth 30+ runs per year? The one thing that Jeter actually has going for him in the field is his strong arm, which he could actually put to good use at third base, a position that would help to mask his slow feet and poor range. With a little practice, he might hope to develop into a league-average third baseman, as opposed to the crippling detriment he provides at shortstop.

In 2003, Alex Rodriguez had 146 runs created. Alfonso Soriano, the key piece coming from the Yankees in this deal, had 122 runs created. Aaron Boone, whose injury opened the door for this deal to happen, had 89 runs created in 2003. Together, the former 2004 Yankees 2B/3B combo created 211 runs in 2003. With the addition of A-Rod, the new Yankees second baseman would need to create 65 runs to match that production. 65 runs isn't impossible to find. 15 second basemen created that many runs in 2003. Newly acquired Mike Lamb could probably put that up in 2004, though Enrique Wilson probably would not.

If you're a Red Sox fan or a Mets fan, you really can't cry about this deal. Both clubs could have had A-Rod if they really wanted a deal to work. The Sox didn't want to give up money on top of Manny Ramirez. The Mets could have probably secured the same deal the Yankees will get if they were willing to part with Jose Reyes and Aaron Heilman. Heilman has shown nothing to this point that would indicate he is the prospect the Mets had hoped he would be. And I am as big a fan of Reyes as anyone, but the Mets can only dream that his upside is anything like what Soriano already is.

The Yankees have done well for themselves here, and I am left holding my proverbial junk. Here's to another long summer at Shea.

Peterson Gets To Work

Mets pitching coach Rick Peterson brought 11 pitchers with him to Birmingham, AL, this week for a complete biometric evaluation, The Kansas City Star reports (registration required).

Inside a big building with a mound, pitchers put on tight black outfits. Little balls covered with silver reflective material are then taped to their shoulders, arms, wrists, torso, hips, knees and feet.

Under the watch of overhead cameras shooting 240 frames per second, pitchers throw to a bullpen catcher. A computer captures the reflection from the balls and translates the images into what look like stick men on a video screen.

Separately, the pitchers are recorded both by a standard video camera and another that shoots the equivalent of 500 frames per second. The result is a super-slow motion image.

Peterson said that without the video, seeing a pitcher's motion is like trying to read the license plate of a car zooming by at 90 mph.

The results are then put through a 35-point evaluation, a program on which Roger Clements and Tim Hudson are said to have scored the highest.

A Good Day

It's all downhill from here, folks. SaberMets got its first mention on Clutch Hits at Baseball Primer today, which is basically the pinnacle of sabermetrics web journalism. We also just passed the 20,000 visitor mark, which is equal parts humbling and exciting. Thanks to everyone for stopping by and reading, and remember to post your comments and send e-mails, furthering your interaction with myself and with other Mets/baseball fans.

Enough about me, though. If you haven't already visited East Coast Agony, stop by and enjoy. It's actually my new favorite blog. Mike (the Mets fan), has been breaking down the NL East in such a way as to make the Mets come out on top, at least thus far. Watch him work his magic in Part 1 and Part 2, and look for Part 3 later in the week. Great writing, and biting humor as well.

Pinch Me

I have no idea how I missed this, but thanks to Avkash at The Raindrops and Jeremy at Jeremy Heit's Blog for bringing it to my attention.

Mark Hale of the New York Post has written a refreshing article about Mike Cameron and what his defensive contributions will bring to the Mets. Now, many a sportswriter have written a thing or two about defense. Unfortunately, many a sportswriter have also written a thing or two about how good Derek Jeter is with the glove. Do you see where I'm going with this?

Much of today's baseball journalism relies much more on coverage than on analysis, which is fine for your average fan. The thinking fan, however, is less interested in regurgitated quotations and simple metrics (i.e. batting average and RBI) than the average fan. That's not to say that one is better than the other, but that sabermetrically-inclined individuals like myself yearn for more than the average newspaper article or Joe Morgan commentary can give us.

Thankfully, there is an abundance of great websites dedicated to such studies, helping to further the understanding of baseball. For a while, sabermetrics had its niche in old Bill James Abstracts, Rob Neyer columns, and websites like Baseball Primer and Baseball Prospectus.

Then, a number of mainstream writers at ESPN.com began mixing sabermetric staples into their articles and broadcasts. Most notably, Peter Gammons and Tim Kurkjian. Of course, some people still don't get it.

Despite the enlightenment of some folks at ESPN, local sportswriters, at least in the New York area, have remained old-school in their expression of statistics and performance. That is, until Mark Hale took it upon himself to bring everyone up to speed. Now, I've been known to rip Mark Hale in the past. However, he earns a big notch on his SABR belt for his article on Sunday.

Eschewing the traditional, anecdotal defensive evaluatories like "he has a great arm" and "I know what I see", and even less complex defensive metrics like zone rating and range factor, Hale dives right into Mitchel Lichtman's (aka MGL) UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating). Check out this article and this article for a detailed explanation of Lichtman's methodologies.

While some sabermetric tools (like OPS) have found their way onto the airwaves of ESPN and even onto the backs of Topps cards, Mark Hale has taken a huge step forward by writing an actual article featuring something as bold as UZR. I commend Mark and the Post for taking this leap of faith, and I can only hope that the response is positive and that this inspires other writers to include more advanced metrics in their work.

Mets Ink Baldwin, Bottalico

According to Bob Klapisch of the Bergen Record, the Mets have signed pitchers James Baldwin and Ricky Bottalico to minor league deals. Mets GM Jim Duquette had the following to say on Saturday:

"We knew by the end [of the off-season] there'd be some guys we could sign at a discount, guys who had something to prove. That's what we were looking for."

James Baldwin is the kind of pitcher who can make the Scott Erickson signing look good. Baldwin, who will be 33 in July, has posted an ERA better than the league only twice in his career and only once since 1996. That was in 2000, when his 4.65 ERA bested the league's 5.17.

He is prone to the longball, giving up 1.37 HR/9 over the course of his career. His career 5.81 K/9 and 3.32 BB/9 are about league-average, so there's nothing much to shout about there. He has a career ERA+ of 92, which makes his 79-70 record that much more remarkable. By remarkable I mean remarkably lucky. If he somehow beats out Erickson, Aaron Heilman, and Jeremy Griffiths for the fifth starter spot, there is something terribly, terribly wrong in Metland.

Has it really come to this? Ricky F'in Bottalico? Bottalico signed a minor league deal with the Diamondbacks last season but was released after only two appearances. A closer earlier in his career, Bottalico saved 68 games in 1996-97 before his command went out the window. Not surprisingly, his ERA went along for the ride. After recording ERAs of 3.19 and 3.65, his ERA ballooned to 6.44 in 1998. From 1998 through 2000, Bottalico posted a K/BB ratio of 1.29, which is downright awful.

Both of these has-beens/never-will-bes have to be considered extreme longshots to make the Mets major league roster out of Spring Training. Unless one of them comes out and completely annihilates opposing batters, they will both be looking to catch on with another club come April.

Galante Likes Mets Chances

In his first column of this, his third season as an MLB.com contributor, Mets bench/infield coach Matt Galante gives his take on the Mets offseason moves, improvements he expects to see in the 2004 incarnation of the Amazins, and his belief that the Mets could be this year's Florida Marlins.

"We've improved greatly in the middle with the kid, Jose Reyes, at second base, Kaz Matsui at shortstop and Mike Cameron in center field. What we wanted to do first this winter was shore up the defense, and we did that."

Now Matt Galante is no expert (at least I don't think he is), but he's certainly towing the company line here. Everyone but my mother has written at one point this offseason that one of the Mets goals since 2003 came to a close was to shore up their defense up the middle (not to mention all over the rest of the field), and they've certainly done that. Mike Cameron is arguably the best defensive center fielder in baseball (some might say inarguably), and despite hitting poorly in his four seasons with the Mariners, he put up respectable OBP numbers, posting marks of .365, .353, .340, and .344 the past four seasons.

Jose Reyes should continue to prosper, and I am confident that he will not have any major hurdles in his efforts to transition from shortstop to second base. His hitting should show improvement, as should his plate discipline. As he grows and discovers the weight room (and creatine), his power numbers should escalate as well.

Kaz Matsui is something of an unknown quantity, though I don't expect him to have any problems playing defense and running the bases stateside. His offense is going to be the big question mark, but I am optimistic and generally excited to see how he will perform.

"As for the rest of the infield, I'm excited because Ty Wigginton is going to get better at third. He still hasn't reached his potential. His ability to play third base will only increase. With that and Joe McEwing as a backup, I'm real comfortable with the infield.

Todd [Zeile] is also a good alternative for a game here and there at third base and first base. He'll be able to give Wiggy a break because he was probably worn down by the end of last season."

I'm guessing that this wasn't tongue-in-cheek. To give him the benefit of the doubt, I think there is a pretty good chance that Wigginton will get better. He was no Eric Chavez with the glove, but he wasn't a complete disaster, considering his below-average athleticism and unfamiliarity with the position. He needs to improve his peripheral numbers, as he struck out 124 times last season while picking up only 46 walks. Those will hopefully get better, and I think Galante is right that Zeile will help to keep Wigginton fresh for the stretch run as the Mets settle into their role as spoilers for those with legitimate playoff aspirations.

"You know, you always get excited about spring. Every time you start a new season, there's always hope. We went into last season with that hope. You look at teams during the spring and how they play and you think a team doesn't have a chance and all of a sudden the Marlins win the World Series. In May, the Marlins were fighting with us for the bottom and we thought we were going to overtake them. All of a sudden, they win the Wild Card."

As the saying goes, "you never know". Well, I may not know, but I think I have a pretty good idea. The Mets are not an untalented team. They certainly have the ingredients to play some exciting games and start fights in the bullpen. We'll just have to see what happens.

Great Scott! Lisa Guerrero's Hot

The Mets have come to terms on a minor league deal with Scott Erickson, just two days after marrying MNF sideline reporter and latino sexpot Lisa Guerrero.

Once one of baseball's most durable pitchers, Erickson has missed two of the past three seasons because of injuries. He was out in 2001 after having Tommy John surgery on his right elbow and was sidelined last year after a shoulder operation.

Erickson is expected to be ready for spring training. The Mets are hoping he can compete for the fifth spot in the rotation...

This is a no-risk signing, as the Mets haven't promised Erickson anything but a shot at making the team. If he can stay healthy and avoid having his arm fall off again, he can be expected to pitch 200 innings of league average (or slightly worse) ball. Not too bad for a fifth starter making the league minimum.

Update: Erickson is apparently excited by the opportunity to pitch in New York.

"I wish spring training started tomorrow. I'm ready to go. I know a lot of the guys on the team, especially John (Franco) and Mike (Piazza). I know there's an opportunity for me here, and I'm hoping to make the most of my chance."

Franco, who has also undergone arm surgery with Dr. Lewis Yocum (he had Tommy John surgery, Erickson had labrum surgery), had this to say:

"I knew he had just gotten married; he was probably the last person I expected to hear from. I could tell from his voice how excited he was to join us. I know he's always wanted to pitch in New York. He's such a competitor, and if he's healthy, which he says he is, I know he'll help us."

Jim Duquette continued the quote parade:

"We were impressed with Scott at a workout last month in Arizona. We're happy to give him this opportunity to show that he has recovered from his injury problems over the last couple of years. We definitely feel that, if healthy, with his past success, it's a situation that could work out very well for both sides."

Floyd Healing

Cliff Floyd, on the mend since undergoing sugery to repair a torn achilles last season, has around one month left on his sixth-month recovery timeline. He's running at full speed and will try running in spikes shortly.

Unlike his weight-intensive training regimen from last offseason, Foyd has gone a different route this time around. According to this article in the Post:

To help his cause, though, Floyd changed his workouts this offseason, ditching a plan stressing a lot of weightlifting in favor of a regimen that emphasizes flexibility and core strength. That's meant a lot of running, yoga and pilates. He's also been working with the same Miami therapist, Lisa Kearns, who helped with Mike Piazza's rehab last year.

Despite his injury last season, Floyd went 290/376/518, with an OPS+ of 132, not to mention 18 homeruns and 68 RBI in only 365 AB. He can also steal a few bases, sporting a career 76% success rate. If the Mets are going to be repectable this season, Floyd will have to be a big part of it.

Mets Malcontents

As Jim Duquette puts the finishing touches on 2004's inevitable failure, Met fans are left to wonder, "Will there ever be a rainbow?". This article by Ed Tsunoda at NYFanSites.com sums it up:

Though the start of Spring Training is an arbitrary line in the sand, the Mets' have yet to convince their fans that this year will be much different than 2003.

There are two general schools of thought amongst Mets' fans. Those who believe the Mets are one big hitting right fielder and one top of the rotation pitcher away from being real wildcard contenders in 2004, and those who believe that nothing short of a full-on rebuilding program will return the Mets to postseason play.

The Mets, in an attempt to appease both, have accomplished neither.

Tsunoda really hits the nail on the head here. Seemingly, half of the fans want the Mets to go all-out, throwing large sums of money at Vlad Guerrero and others, hoping to build a contender from the outside-in. The other half would prefer the Mets lock all of their free-agent money away for a brighter day, and spend their time and resources developing prospects and younger players who could eventually form the nucleus of a Mets dynasty.

As Tsunoda points out, the Mets put one hand in the free agent bowl and one hand in the prospect bowl, mixed them all together, and ended up pissing everyone off. The people who wanted the Mets to spend this offseason suffered a huge letdown when Guerrero signed elsewhere, and were left holding their junk wondering how Mike Cameron and Todd Zeile are going to transform the Mets from unlovable losers into a team that you wouldn't be embarassed to tell people you root for.

Tsunoda goes on to say:

It seems the Mets have elected to make some minor changes in an effort to avoid losing 95 games again, and put off the major reconstruction project until the top kids in their system like David Wright, Scott Kazmir, Matt Peterson, and Justin Huber are ready to join Jose Reyes as the core of the new Mets. That's likely to mean another long summer for Mets' fans, half of whom would only have been satisfied by adding a superstar like Guerrero and a pitcher like Vazquez, the rest who wanted to see the Mets make a real run at rebuilding, and none of whom have gotten what they wanted.

I would argue that the Mets are in better shape now than they were a year ago, or even at the end of last season. Despite losing promising but unspectactular minor leaguers like Marco Scutaro, Matt Watson, and Lenny DiNardo, the Mets still have all of their top prospects (Wright, Kazmir, Peterson, Huber, Victor Diaz, Royce Ring, etc.), and have improved the on-field product at the Major League level. Cameron, Kaz Matsui, and a platoon of Shane Spencer and Karim Garcia represent moderate-if-not-significant upgrades at several positions, and six months of Jose Reyes is bound to be better than two.

Mets management is in the unenviable position of trying to build a franchise that will be competitive for a number of years while trying to keep a fleeting fan base interested in a sub-par ballclub. It is an impossibility for them to satisfy the entirety of their fan base because so many different baseball management theories are represented. Sabermetric bloggers have one theory (or more), while old-school hometowners have their own ideas.

Like others, I wish there were some things that the Mets did differently this offseason. Regardless, I am counting the days until pitchers and catchers report as I wait feverishly for Spring Training to begin. I miss baseball, and I miss Mets baseball most of all. Even on my bad days, I still look forward to watching my Mets play ball. They could win big or get blown out, and it doesn't matter all that much. A bad day with baseball beats most good days without baseball.