SaberMets.com

« October 2004 | Main | December 2004 »

Pedro Martinez Open Thread

Fire away with your thoughts on Pedro.

Metropolitan's Musings

Steve Costello has a new Mets blog called Metropolitan's Musings. He has a nice article up detailing his case for why Carlos Beltran is overrated. Stop by and say Hi.

Who Catches If Piazza Leaves?

Speculation is running rampant that Mike Piazza may not be the opening day catcher for the Mets in 2005, with rumors having him headed to Anaheim, Los Angeles, or anyplace else sportswriters think would look nice under their byline. If Piazza goes, who does the majority of the catching for the Mets next season? Unless the Mets get someone back in a trade (Jason Kendall) or do something silly like sign Jason Varitek as a free agent, it will be either Jason Phillips or Vance Wilson.

Ed Tsunoda of NYFS and his new blog The Eds-Op Page thinks that it should be Wilson. I'm not so sure.

Vance Wilson is a nice catcher. He has historically been a terrific throwing catcher, nabbing 49% and 45% in 2002 and 2003, respectively. He tailed off a bit last year, catching only 34% of would-be base-stealers in 2004. He also had his best offensive season by far last year, with a very respectable (for a catcher) .274/.335/.427 line. His previous best season was 2002 when he hit .245/.301/.380, which was pretty shabby, but still better than any season Mike Matheny has ever put up, OPS-wise. He also throws better than Matheny. Unforunately, there are no good metrics for "blocking the plate" or "calling a good game", which I'm told Matheny is very good at.

If you told me Vance Wilson would hit for a .762 OPS while nailing 40% of base-stealers, I would pay him a million bucks and stick him in the 8-hole. I'm fairly sure we can't expect so much of him, though. He has never had more than 268 at-bats in a season, and I wonder whether he could catch 130 games and not wear down entirely. We saw it a bit in 2003 when Piazza was out for much of the year with that groin injury. After hitting .283/.333/.433 in the first half, Wilson hit an incomprehensible .148/.198/.235 after the All-Star break. Go back and read that line again. We're only talking about 81 at-bats, but that is still a miserable stretch.

Jason Phillips, while not as accomplished a defensive catcher as Wilson, has been a much more prolific offensive player, his dreadful 2004 season notwithstanding. Many people lost patience with Phillips this year, and you can count me among them. But he was terrific in 2003, hitting .298/.373/.442, and was a very successful hitter in the minor leagues.

JASON PHILLIPS MINOR LEAGUE BATTING

              AB  BB   SO   AVG   OBP   SLG
2000 A/AA    395  30   28  .304  .353  .413
2001 AA/AAA  383  38   33  .295  .359  .457
2002 AAA     323  24   29  .282  .327  .477
2003 AAA      78  11    9  .346  .435  .564

Phillips has shown a good eye at the plate in the past, drawing a walk approximately every 10 at-bats. I am confident that Phillips can regain his swing. Jeromy Burnitz' 2003 season was eerily similar to Phillips' 2004, at least in terms of their visible approach at the plate. Burnitz hit .215/.311/.365 in 2002 and hit .274/.344/.581 (for the Mets) in 2003. This proves nothing, of course, as to what Phillips can be expected to do next year.

Based on their batting history, this job should be Phillips' to lose next year, in the event that Mike Piazza is not with the team. Personally, I think the Mets would probably be better off with Piazza catching for them next year. If that doesn't happen, Phillips' superior offensive production is preferable to Wilson's throwing prowess, and Wilson will likely be relegated to backup duty once again.

The State Of The Mets Part 2

Welcome to Part 2 of the State of the Mets. You can check out Part 1 here.

Last time we took a look at the events that led the Mets to where they are today. Now, you might be wondering, where do they go from here? Despite three mostly miserable seasons in the last three tries, there is plenty to be positive about in Metland.

For starters, the Mets have David Wright and Jose Reyes, for the time being at least. Until Omar Minaya does something rash like trade Reyes for Alfonso Soriano, I am going to assume that Reyes will be in the Mets plans for the foreseeable future. Wright, whom I sponsor at baseball-reference.com, is a stud. I'm not going to waste too much time fawning over him right now, as there will be plenty of time for that in the coming years.

Reyes, for all of his power/discipline shortcomings, is a very good baseball player. His range and throwing arm in the field, now back in its rightful place at shortstop, is as good as anyone in the league. He has excellent basestealing instincts, having swiped 32/37 (86%) in his career to this point. Obviously, injuries have been his biggest problem thus far. In his year-plus in the big leagues, he has only accrued 494 at-bats; not even a full season. If (the big one) he can stay healthy, his approach at the plate will improve, his batting average will improve, and his discipline will improve. He will never walk 100 times in a season as Rickey Henderson once did, but I think he's definitely capable of .320/.370/.480, with plenty of doubles, a dozen or so homers, and great stolen base numbers.

After Wright and Reyes, you also have Kaz Matsui, who will be much better in 2005 than he was in 2004. I am confident that he will adapt nicely to second base and will improve upon what was an underrated offensive season. He is signed through 2006, and should be a valuable player for the Mets for at least the next two seasons (if not longer).

At first base, the Mets have nothing. Craig Brazell is not a long-term solution at any position, though I like his pop off the bench. The Mets will have to find something to do here.

The outfield is not so good, either, save Mike Cameron. Cameron, despite overrunning several balls and losing one or two in the sun, was great in centerfield last season. His average was not so good (.231), but he drew a good number of walks (.102 BB/PA) and his SLG was very good for a centerfielder (.479, good for 4th in the NL).

Cliff Floyd will only be around as long as the Mets can't find someone to take him. He is a terrible fielder in left, and I'm not convinced he would be any better at first base as some have suggested. His lengthy injury history has robbed him of whatever range he might have had at one point, and his inability to hit left-handed pitching now has made him a liability at the plate except in a strict platoon with a righty.

Richard Hidalgo probably won't be the Mets starting rightfielder in 2005. It's been said a hundred times before, but when he's hot he can carry a team and when he's cold he sucks llama nuts. Okay, so perhaps it isn't always phrased that way, but I digress. His defense is very good, I just think the Mets soured too much on his lowly lows and have no intention of bringing him back unless he becomes very affordable (say in the $3-4 million range).

The starting rotation is actually in decent shape. Not great shape, but decent. At press time, Al Leiter's option had already been declined, with the Mets paying a $2 million buyout instead of the $10 million for 2005. Leiter is now a free agent, and part of me hopes he signs elsewhere (the part of me that wants the Mets to have a good team next year). I am a big Al Leiter fan, both as a player and as a person, but his best days are behind him. Sure, he was 10th in the NL in ERA in 2004. He was also last in the league in P/PA (pitcher per plate appearance), P/IP (pitches per inning pitches), and last in DIPS% (a stat that compares a pitcher's expected runs allowed to his actual runs allowed; Leiter allowed far fewer runs than he was expected to, which is typically a product of good defense and a lot of luck). The bottom line is that there are about fifty pitchers out there that I would rather have on my staff than Al Leiter, and a lot of those are available on the free agent market.

Tom Glavine, well, is better than Al Leiter. If the Mets get Tom Glavine pre-All Star Break 2004 next season, they will be very happy (as will I). Glav-o had a 2.66 ERA before the break compared to 5.06 after the break. His BB/9, HR/9, and H/9 all went up. Those first two are his fault. The last one may or may not be. The higher walk count indicates that his location was spotty in the second half, which means he might have been leaving more balls up in the zone, or may have been grooving more pitches in an attempt to get ahead in the count (or catch up, since he was behind in the count a lot). If Glavine stays healthy this season, he should pick up 200 IP, which will guarantee his option for 2006. If the Mets could find someone to take him, great. Not likely, though.

Steve Trachsel is Steve Trachsel. He's not fancy, he's not sexy, he's not really that good, but he's an adequate #4 or #5 starter. Unfortunately for the Mets, Trachsel has been their #3 starter for a few years now. I would trade him if I could. His $5-$7 million could be better spent almost anywhere.

Personally, if Victor Zambrano can stay healthy, I think he will have an outstanding year. I think his strikeout rates will stay high, I think he will walk few batters and hit fewer batters, and I think he will work out nicely for the Mets. I still wasn't worth Scott Kazmir, but I think he will surprise some people.

I think the Mets will probably resign Kris Benson, and I like the fact that Omar Minaya is playing hardball with him. The Mets have an offer on the table to him, and are waiting for a proposal from his camp. I don't think the Mets will go much higher than 3 yrs/$23 million, perhaps with an option for a fourth year. Minaya knows that the free agent pitching pool is incredibly deep, at least in quantity. He is the 14th highest rated free agent pitcher according to ESPN.com, and he probably won't get $7 million a year from anyone else.

I'll get into the bullpen and the bench another day, mainly because I think there could be a lot of changes there. Braden Looper and, god help us Mike Stanton will be back, but we could see a bunch of youngsters get a shot in the pen (note to management: Free Blake McGinley). That's all for now. I'll be back later to touch on some of the crazy rumors floating around, and how they might work out for the Mets if they actually happen.

The State Of The Mets Part 1

With Baseball's Winter Meetings upon us and a new General Manager and Field Manager already in the fold, I find that now is as good a time as any to take a step back and reflect on the current state of the New York Mets.

The Mets are coming off of their third consecutive terrible season, the most recent of which found them in fourth (FOURTH!) place in their division after two straight last-place finishes. In one of those seasons (2003), Ty Wigginton led the team in OPS with .714 (among those who qualified for the batting title; Cliff Floyd had an OPS of .896 in only 365 at-bats). .714! Needless to say, things have been pretty bleak.

That's not to say that there haven't been flashes of hope. Jose Reyes has been exciting if not overwhelmingly productive when he hasn't been riddled with injuries. David Wright looked like the real deal in 2003, but then again Jason Phillips had a .373 OBP in 2003 (.298 in 2004). Unfortunately, those flashes of hope have been tempered by cavernous gorges of plight.

The Mets are on their third manager and general manager in the last three years, which echoes the overall instability of the franchise itself. That instability runs to the core, with owner Fred Wilpon and COO Jeff Wilpon coming under fire recently, having been pinned with much of the blame for the oft-embarrassing play of the team. Mets fans have long blamed ownership for becoming too meddlesome in the baseball operations department while holding nothing resembling a baseball pedigree save Fred's relationship with pitching great Sandy Koufax.

The Wilpon's claim to have had no say in baseball matters, though the truth probably lies somewhere in between. A similar problem involving several Mets players has been bandied about, with Al Leiter, Tom Glavine, and John Franco said to have had too much influence on personnel decisions. The players claim otherwise, though Leiter has been known to oblige management when asked for his opinions on such matters. The truth is probably that none of these players were proactive about having their voices considered, but were more than willing to contribute when approached.

The aggregate of all of these issues is that the face of the Mets front office had become so muddied that it was very difficult to discern who was actually in charge. When Steve Phillips was fired in the Summer of 2003, Jim Duquette was promoted largely because the Wilpon's couldn't get someone they desired more. The Duke became the general manager, and "autonomy" became the newest buzzword surrounding the Mets. The question of whether The Duke actually had full autonomy was debated among Mets columnists, bloggers, and even casual fans. The consensus was that, no, Duquette most likely did not actually have full autonomy. He may have come up with plans and ideas for trades and signings, but the belief was that he had to bounce those ideas off of countless others, including the Wilpons, the SuperScouts, possibly even players.

Regardless of how wide the chasm was between perception and reality, the perception was that there was an internal power struggle, and the reality was that Jim Duquette was being demoted. Enter Omar Minaya, formerly Steve Phillips' assistant and most recently GM of the lame duck Montreal Expos. The company line was that Minaya, not Duquette, was the man Fred Wilpon wanted all along to steer his ship. Minaya's first job was to find a replacement for Art Howe, who struggled to connect with the New York media and his players, and eventually became a lame duck himself before being relieved of his duties as the 2004 season drew to a close.

Speculation ran rampant through Metland as everybody and his uncle had his own preference for the next Mets manager. Weeks of speculation reached an abrupt climax when Willie Randolph, long-considered to be the frontrunner for the job, was named the Mets newest manager. Now, Queens-native Omar Minaya and Brooklyn-native Willie Randolph were given the daunting task of turning the Mets into winners.

That brings us to the present. Where do the Mets go from here? I'll talk more about that tomorrow.

Mets To Target Beltran?

In an interview with Mets.com, Mike Cameron indicated that he informed the Mets of his willingness to move to right field to accomodate Carlos Beltran, should the Mets be inclined to pursue him.

"I have a lot of pride in what I do. And I still pride myself as one of the best in the business. But if it's going to help the team to improve that much, I'll move to right field. I have a choice. I won't move to left and play left field in Shea Stadium. I'll go and win a Gold Glove in right field if I have to. It won't make a difference.

To be able to play center field is my dream and I worked very hard every day at it. But if it helps the New York Mets in 2005 to get Carlos Beltran, there's no question about it, I will move. If it makes the team better, go ahead and try to get Beltran. I'm all for it. I'm all for getting Carlos Beltran here. If he can make things better, we have to find out if he's interested in coming here. They came down for that meeting and I put it all out on the table, laid it out there."

A selfless act on Cameron's part, to be sure. I don't know if it will make a difference, but at least it's out of the way.

Leyland, Bobby V Out

Mets.com reports that Jim Leyland and Bobby Valentine are both officially out of the managerial hunt. Leyland and Mets GM Omar Minaya came to a mutual understanding that this was not the right time for a union. Bobby V. indicated to Minaya via e-mail that his current team, the Chiba Lotte Marines of Japan will not grant the Mets permission to speak with him.

This whole thing should play out within the week, with Willie Randolph or Rudy Jaramillo likely becoming the Mets next manager, barring a late run at Jim Tracy, who became a free agent yesterday.

Backman Lands D'Backs Gig

Wally Backman was officially hired by the Diamondbacks today to be their new manager.

In other news, this article indicates the Mets will probably bring back Al Leiter at something like $4 million, plus his $2 million buyout and additional incentives. Whoopie. This stat we knew, but it's nice to see it written out:

his pitch count - 168.3 per nine innings, the highest of any pitcher to log enough innings to qualify for the ERA title

Great. $6+ million for that. Would any Mets fan shed a single tear if Leiter walked away? I know I wouldn't. The article also has some good news:

Cuban defector Alay Soler, who impressed Tuesday in his Dominican Winter League debut, allowing one hit and striking out 10 in five innings for Leones del Escogido, including fanning the first six batters he faced.

I don't know how competitive that league is, but 10 Ks in 5 innings is good in my book. This article in the Post indicates that if the Phillies jump to hire Jim Leyland, the Mets may try to nudge in and sign Jim Tracy away from the Dodgers. Tracy's Dodgers are +13 over the past four years in Actual Record-to-Pythagorean Record, meaning they won 13 more games than their runs scored/runs allowed would have predicted (+4, +3, +2, +4 over the past four season).

Willie Randolph probably still remains the favorite, though the fact that the Mets may be waiting on these other options probably means they're not completely sold on Randolph. Odds are that if Rudy Jaramillo doesn't get hired as manager the Mets will make a serious bid to bring him on as a hitting coach.