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Bloggy McBloggerson

A couple of new Mets blogs have popped up that I figured I'd let you know about id you didn't already.

Brian Doyle has a new blog called Straight Flushing. He's been previewing the rest of the NL East, so go check it out.

Steve M also has a new blog called Simply Amazins. which definitely looks promising so far. Stop by and say "Hi!".

I am in the process of updating the Mets blog links on the right. If you know of a Mets blog that I have missed, please let me know. Just for the record, "Disabled List" is not meant to disparage those blogs, but merely to indicate those that are/were not updating regularly. I apologize if anyone thought otherwise and was unnecessarily offended. If I thought your blog was crap I wouldn't have linked to it in the first place.

Mientkiewicz or Lee

The biggest complaint about trading Ian "The Blade" Bladergroen for Doug Mientkiewicz is that the Mets could have just signed Travis Lee, who is probably about 90% the player that Mientkiewicz is. He's a little worse defensively and a little worse offensively, but not much of either.

Bladergroen only has one solid offensive season under his belt, but he was the Mets #4 prospect (according to BA), and could very well have been the first-baseman of the future. Do you know who isn't going to be the first-baseman of the future? Craig Brazell. He has no range at first base and he has terrible plate discipline (98 BB in 2498 minor league AB, which is borderline criminal). Brazell will be, at best, a power lefty bat off the bench, and maybe a solid third-string first-baseman. At worst, he's minor-league roster fodder, maybe a throw-in for a later trade.

Brazell is a poor-man's Randall Simon, which is very poor indeed. Bladergroen is not a surefire major-leaguer, but he's already a better prospect than Brazell ever was. One great season at A-ball doesn't make a great player, but considering the fact that the Mets could have signed Lee for a couple million bucks and no prospects, I can understand why some people are upset.

If you try to tell me that Lee is just as good as Minky, I won't buy it. Minky has a good eye at the plate (339 BB in 2056 career ABs), and is one of the few best defensive first-baseman in baseball. I would probably buy:

Lee + Blade > Minky

but I guess that ship has sailed anyhow. Minky and Andres Galarraga will make a very nice platoon pair at first base, as Minky will benefit from days off against tough lefties, and the Big Cat can still hack it against the southpaws.

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In other news, it appears as if Tyler Yates is going to miss the whole season with a tear in his rotator cuff. My feeling was that he was going to surprise a lot of people with his work out of the bullpen in 2005, but I guess we'll have to wait until 2006 to see that. It looks like the Mets are probably going to carry six or seven relievers, and here are my picks for that crew:

Looper
DeJean
Strickland
Koo
Fortunato
Seo
Heredia

Of course, the Mets could do much better than Heredia. I would much rather see Blake McGinley or Heath Bell get a bullpen spot. Jae Seo and Matt Ginter is also a toss-up. Fortunato or Strickland could easily not make the list above, though Minaya had Strickland for a few weeks in Montreal before shipping him to the Mets a few years back, so hopefully he'll give him a shot.

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Sammy Sosa appears to be on his way to the Orioles in exchange for Jerry Hairston Jr. and prospects. The Cubbies will also pick up something in the neighborhood of $10 million, which is a very nice neighborhood. I think Sosa will have a very nice year at Camden Yards. If healthy, I predict .270/.360/.550 with 40 homeruns.

ESPN.com Love

The Mets get some much-deserved and long-awaited love at ESPN.com today. First, on Jayson Stark's Top-10 Most Improved Teams list, the Mets clock in at #1:

For 194 million bucks, you could buy 19 million pastrami sandwiches at the Stage Deli -- or Carlos Beltran, Pedro Martinez and Kris Benson. The Mets gave their frazzled fans something to chew on with the three most staggering free-agent contracts of the winter. It might not put them in the playoffs. But at least, it put them back on New York's radar screen.

Peter Gammons also heaps on the praise in his latest column. Most of the writing on ESPN.com is complete crap, but it's still fun to read nice things about your favorite team.

Mets Fantasy Camp

If you haven't done so already, you should go read Eric Brown's blog. He just got finished spending five days at the Mets Fantasy Camp in Port St. Lucie, Florida, you know, the one they're always hocking on TV during Mets games. The blog really is a great chronicle of one man living out his dream. Stop by and say "Hi".

Minky and the Blade

According to The Post, the Mets have acquired Doug Mientkiewicz from the Boston Red Sox for promising A-ball first-baseman Ian Bladergroen. The Blade hit .342/.397/.595 in the Sally League before injuring his left wrist. He was the Mets #4 prospect according to Baseball America:

Background: Bladergroen passed up a scholarship from Nebraska to sign with the Mets as a draft-and-follow prior to the 2003 draft. A two-time junior college all-American, he led national juco players with 32 homers in 2003. He had a breakout first full season in 2004, but it ended early when he tore a ligament in his left wrist in July.

Strengths: Bladergroen has plus power, and because his swing keeps the bat in the zone for a long time, he also can hit for average. He uses the whole field and works counts well. One of the best defensive first basemen in the system, he's agile and has a big wingspan to nab high throws.

Weaknesses: Though Bladergoren has produced for average and power, his bat speed is not exceptional and could cause him problems at higher levels. His wrist injury is also a question mark, as he couldn't swing the bat during instructional league.

The Future: The Mets are anxiously awaiting Bladergroen's recovery. If he's fully healthy when spring training begins, he could hit his way to high Class A. Wrist injuries often take a while to heal, so he could need time to regain his power stroke.

I feel like the Mets gave up a lot, but Mientkiewicz is an outstanding fielder and a decent hitter with good plate discipline, and it's not like the Mets traded Lastings Milledge or Yusmeiro Petit. Still, though, I can't help but think that the Mets could have gotten it done for less.

Texas Drops Out

According to an article in the Star-Telegram, the Rangers are dropping out of the Carlos Delgado sweepstakes because they are unwilling to move Mark Teixeira off of first base and Delgado is unwilling to sign as a full-time designated hitter. The article goes so far as to say that:

all signs indicated Delgado will play for the Mets this season.

UPDATE #1: The Orioles are sticking to their 3-year deal, and they seem to think that Delgado will sign with the Mets (source: Baltimore Sun).

UPDATE #2: The Mets have pulled out? According to ESPN.com, the Mets have pulled out of the Delgado bidding.

Of course, this may just be rumor. I hope it isn't true, though. In case you weren't sure the Mets needed Delgado:

2004 Mets First Basemen (162 games): 73 Runs Created
2004 Carlos Delgado (120 games): 85 Runs Created

Extrapolated to an entire season, Delgado would have created 113 runs in 2004, and that takes into account a terrible first half. I didn't have VORP splits for Mets hitters, but ESPN.com provides RC splits, so that's what I used, even though it is inferior to VORP (VORP adjusts for ballpark and position played, amongst other things).

Using Runs Created, Delgado was worth approximately 40 runs more than the amalgamation of Mets first-basemen last season, which is roughly four wins, which is significant. I was surprised that Mets first-basemen performed so well last season, which makes me wonder if RC is more flawed than I first thought. Regardless, that is what I have to work with. Maybe Delgado would turn out to be worth six more wins, which would be an incredible improvement.

We should find out within the next 24-48 hours who Delgado will be playing for. If he doesn't sign with the Mets AND the Rangers are indeed out of it, keep your fingers crossed that the Orioles come out of the blue and sign him. As Andrew at Chuck 'n' Duck points out, if he signs with the Marlins, the Mets could be looking at another season as the fourth-best team in the NL East.

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David Pinto at Baseball Musings has compiled his 2004 Probabilistic Model of Range by team, and the Mets clock in at 7th best in the Majors at converting expected outs into actual outs. They actually converted fewer outs than expected, though only around four-or-five total outs for the whole season. Twenty-five other teams performed below expectations, with the Cardinals and Red Sox sporting the most effecient defenses in the bigs.

David should have his ratings for individual players shortly, so it will be interesting to see how different players performed last year. Since we wll no longer be seeing league-wide UZR ratings (on account of MGL working for the Cardinals), David's work is probably the next best thing.

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John Franco inked a one-year deal with the Astros for $700,000. Johnny is a good guy and put in some good years for the Mets, and I am happy to see him going out on his own terms. I am even happier that those terms don't include playing for the Mets. "They were the best offer," Franco said of the Astros deal, which must be like when my mother used to tell me I was her favorite sonny boy, knowing full well that my only siblings were both female.

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The Eagles and the Pats are going to the Super Bowl. I wanted Atlanta and Pittsburgh to go, so I guess this is just another example of God shitting on me for being atheist. Such is life.

Cameron for Ibanez?

Will asked an interesting question in the comments yesterday:

What about Seattle? Do you see any likelihood that Cameron could wind up back there. They could use a CF, although they are close to their payroll limit. What could Seattle offer the Mets? How do the numbers look with a Raul Ibañez and (put another name here) trade?

Kudos on including the eñe with Ibañez' name, by the way. Cameron would probably love to go back to Seattle, but I don't know if the Mets are really interested. Ibanez had a suprising season with the Mariners, hitting .304/.353/.472 in a terrible hitters park. Surprising to me at least, since I didn't think he was any good.

He's an above-average fielder (UZR of +6/162 games from 2000-2003). Offensively, he posted a higher VORP than Cameron last year (30.1 to 27.0). Given a similar offensive season in 2005, Cameron's VORP would stand to decrease for the Mets as he would be playing right field instead of center.

They are the same age (32, with Ibanez older by six months), and Ibanez is a couple million dollars cheaper. The two differences as I see it are that Cameron probably holds a slight edge offensively, at least for the Mets, with the better power numbers and stolen bases. He brings a huge advantage defensively, where he's probably a win or two better than Ibanez with the glove.

I expect that Cameron will have a better season offensively in 2005, considering his hand and wrist and toe bothered him for much of the year. I don't think it's outlandish to suggest that he is worth two wins over Raul Ibanez. If that's the case, then I would much rather have those wins than the $2 million the Mets would save by making the trade. $1 million for a win is a number the Mets would gladly spend.

Delgado Picks Final Four?

Carlos Delgado has apparently narrowed the field pursuing him to four teams. As Rotoworld put it, "This is just terrible news for the zero other teams that were looking to sign him". I don't even recall any other teams rumored to be interested in Delgado.

The Mets are entertaining offers for the recently-disgruntled Mike Cameron, but there's no reason for them to give him away. Despite what casual observers might have you believe, Cameron was still a very good defender last season, despite occasionally losing a flyball in the sun. The rumor wheel is a-flyin', with the latest stop a swap with Oakland for Eric Byrnes and Chad Bradford, with Bradford's inclusion presumably to offset some of Cameron's salary.

There is much debate as to whether this is a good deal for the Mets. I previously thought that it was foolish to give away a player of Cameron's defensive prowess and respectable offensive ability for a scrappy unspectacular outfielder and a submarining setup man. However, I began to think a bit differently after taking a closer look at this deal using VORP.

2003-2004 VORP

                2003   2004    AVG
Mike Cameron    29.1   27.0   28.1
Eric Byrnes     25.1   33.1   29.1
Chad Bradford   24.3    9.2   16.8

Over the past two years, Byrnes and Bradford have averaged a combined 45.9 VORP, with Cameron averaging 28.1 by himself. That difference is 17.8 runs per season, or roughly two wins. Were the Mets to hold on to Cameron, this disparity would be even greater. Cameron's production as a Met moving forward would be as a right-fielder, which, based on his production the past two years, would result in a lower VORP. VORP is adjusted for position, and right-fielders typically perform somewhat better offensively than center-fielders (SEE: defensive spectrum).

Major League center-fielders averaged 13 runs above replacement (RARP) in 2004. Right-fielders averaged 15.2 RARP, so we could reasonably expect Cameron's VORP to drop a couple of points by switching to right field. Not very significant, but enough to push Byrnes' and Bradford's combined value to two full wins above Cameron's.

VORP is already park adjusted, so don't expect any difference there. This deal would save the Mets $3+ million in 2005, and Byrnes would be willing to play either left or right field, facilitating a potential Cliff Floyd trade. I love Cameron, but if Oakland is really offering this deal, and Cameron is really being difficult regarding a move to right field, this is a move that I would strongly consider making.

EDIT: This analysis only considers offensive contributions, which is a detriment to Mike Cameron. Even in right field, Cameron projects to be 15-or-20 UZR runs better than Byrnes, which would erase the two-win advantage that Byrnes/Bradford would offer.

Now, I don't personally think that Cameron's salary would prohibit the Mets from adding Delgado. However, if that's really the Mets' thinking, and the few million dollars saved by making a Cameron-Byrnes-Bradford exchange would mean that they would get Delgado in the fold, then I would be in favor of the deal, considering the production offset is basically a wash. Regardless, if the speculation all revolves around signing Delgado, then it would behoove the Mets to get that signing done first before worrying about where the payroll flexibility will come from.

The Next Bobby Bo?

In the Winter of 1992, the New York Mets were looking to make a big free agent splash. The object of their affection that year was Bobby Bonilla. Bonilla was the big name of the free agent class, and the Mets promptly signed him to the biggest contract ever seen: 5 years/$29 million. He went on to become one of the biggest free agent busts ever and the poster boy for "The Worst Team Money Can Buy" Mets of the early nineties.

... or did he?

* play spooky music *

Bonilla gets a bad rap for his failures as a Met. The problem is he was actually quite productive during his time in New York. Here's what he did in the four years leading up to his free agency with the Pirates:

BOBBY BONILLA 1988-1991

                     AB     AVG     OBP     SLG     OPS
1988 Pirates        584   0.274   0.366   0.476   0.842
1989 Pirates        616   0.281   0.358   0.490   0.848
1990 Pirates        625   0.280   0.322   0.518   0.841
1991 Pirates        577   0.302   0.391   0.492   0.883
1988-1991 Pirates  2402   0.284   0.359   0.495   0.854


Not bad. Nothing spectacular, but pretty solid. He hit free agency after his age 28 season, and played the next three-and-a-half seasons with the Mets. How bad was he?

BOBBY BONILLA 1992-1995

                     AB     AVG     OBP     SLG     OPS
Mets 1992           438   0.249   0.342   0.432   0.773
Mets 1993           502   0.265   0.350   0.522   0.872
Mets 1994           403   0.290   0.368   0.504   0.872
Mets 1995           317   0.325   0.376   0.599   0.975
Mets 1992-1995     1660   0.278   0.357   0.508   0.866

His production on the Mets was very similar to that of his time spent in Pittsburgh. His average, on-base and slugging numbers were all about the same. The real difference between his time with Pittsburgh and his time with the Mets was his health. During those last four seasons with the Pirates, Bonilla played in at least 157 games every season. He never played more than 139 games in any season with the Mets, and was traded to the Orioles after playing 80 games in 1995.

I don't know the extent of Bonilla's injuries during his time in New York, but he's developed a very bad reputation over the years, largely because of his contract and the team the Mets assembled around him. He moved from small-market Pittsburgh to large-market New York, watched his teammates crumble around him, and still managed to maintain the level of production that had established him as one of the more desirable free agents available.

You may blame him for playing cards with Rickey Henderson in 1999 as Kenny Rogers walked in the winning run against the Braves in the NLCS, but his production from 1992-1995 was about as good as could be expected. His performance on-the-field was not his problem; Staying healthy was.

EDIT: Thanks to James for pointing out to me in the comments that:

a) I'm an idiot and
b) MLB was shortened by a strike in both 1994 and 1995, which explains a lot of the games that Bonilla missed.

HOLY FLURKING SHNIT!!

I'm Not Dead

With a little bit of luck we could know within a few days who Carlos Beltran will be playing for in 2005 and beyond. I'm feeling good about the Mets' chances, though I don't necessarily believe all of the reports indicating that the Yankees aren't even going to bid.

News that Beltran had already agreed to sign with the Mets was leaked to NYFS, but has thus far been refuted by everyone. Any chance it could become a self-fulfilling prophecy? I guess we'll know soon enough.

There is also some talk of the Mets going after Carlos Delgado even if they also sign Beltran. That would leave the Mets with a silly-good lineup from the top down, along the lines of:

SS Jose Reyes
3B David Wright
CF Carlos Beltran
1B Carlos Delgado
C  Mike Piazza
LF Cliff Floyd
RF Mike Cameron
2B Kaz Matsui

It's a tough call as for who should bat eighth. I would consider batting Matsui 2nd, Wright 7th, and Cameron 8th.

Vance Wilson was traded to the Tigers, leaving Jason Phillips as the likely backup. If the Mets are smart they will leave it at that, since there is no significant reason to carry three backstops on the big league roster. Ramon Castro, who was signed to a minor league deal a few weeks ago, could battle for a backup spot, but will probably start the year at AAA Norfolk.

Keep your fingers crossed for Beltran (unless, of course, you don't want the Mets to sign him in the first place). I'll be back shortly with a look at the last time the Mets signed the best available free agent hitter.