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November 18, 2003

Some People Still Don't Get It

Jayson Stark is totally clueless. In his latest nonsensical diatribe, Jayson pleads his case to the masses regarding what true "value" is. Not unexpectedly, he carts out the old standbys when suggesting how everyone should quantify this "value":

1) How have all the other voters defined it over the last 70 years? and
2) Where would this player's team have finished without him?

Jayson is not an old-timer, but he subscribes to oh-so-many of the old-timer baseball adages. I'm not saying he's wrong in his thinking because his opinion differs from my own. He's wrong for any number of other reasons, so why single one out? Here's an analogy that I just conjured up:

Let us suppose there are two men: one wealthy, one not so. The wealthy man is worth $1,000,000, while the poor man is worth a mere $1,000. Walking along one day, the wealthy man finds $90 on the sidewalk, and picks it up. Across town, the poor man finds $100 on the sidewalk, and picks it up. By Jayson's logic, the $90 is more valuable to the wealthy man than the $100 is to the poor man because, after all, he would still be poor without that extra $100. As we all know, the $100 is, at its simplest, more valuable by $10 than the $90. One might even argue that, on a different level, it's significantly more valuable, with the importance that it holds in the hands of the poor man. Why, the wealthy man has $90 many times over, while the $100 truly makes a world of difference to the poor man.

Analogy Key
Wealthy Man - First Place Minnesota Twins
Poor Man - Last Place Texas Rangers
$90 - would-be MVP candidate Shannon Stewart (though it's probably more like $50)
$100 - Alex Rodriguez

Hopefully it's starting to sink in. I generally enjoy Jayson's writing, but his current agenda leaves me scratching my head. He even rips his ESPN.com co-columnist Peter Gammons (amongst others) for not knowing "...what "valuable" means in this goofy world we live in." He goes on to use loaded arguments, such as this gem:

It tells us that hundreds of voters, over more than seven decades, almost always thought "valuable," as it applied to this award, meant a player's team at least won more games than it lost. Ideally, it contended for or finished first.

If we're wrong about that, then how come the voters for this award defined it that way for just about everyone else in the American League?

Of the 26 players besides A-Rod who got a vote, only two -- Anaheim's Garret Anderson and (hold your chuckles, please) Tampa Bay's Aubrey Huff -- played for teams with losing records.

Of course he doesn't mention that the main reason teams lose more games than they win is because they don't have very good players. This fact eludes Stark (or at least it eludes his argument), who is still campaigning door-to-door for Shannon Stewart. That he would take a cheap shot at Aubrey Huff like this ("...hold your chuckles...") is not only foolish, but misplaced. He fails to mention that Huff bested his choice, Stewart, in almost every conceivable category. He had a 3 point edge in OBP, a 96 point edge in SLG, a 99 point edge in OPS, a 4 point edge in AVG, 21 more homeruns, 34 more RBI, and an extra run. His RARP was a whopping 27 runs higher and he had 3 more Win Shares.

He concludes his sermon with this:

He won because nobody had any idea who to vote for. So they handed the best player in the league a consolation prize, a career-achievement award, a picturesque-numbers trophy, a We're Sorry You Never Won Before award. It was a magnanimous gesture and a fine little tip of the cap to a great, great player. Except that's not what the MVP award is. It's supposed to be about this year, about which team won and which teams didn't and about which player had the most to do with that.

Much as the two writers who left Hideki Matsui off of their ROY ballots because they felt the need to redefine the criteria for the award, Stark seems to want to re-christen this award the MVPWT, or Most Valuable Player on a Winning Team, which it is clearly not intended to be. As Rob Neyer points out in his rebuttal:

The Rangers finished in fourth place, which happens to be last place in the American League West. If they'd played in the American League Central, they'd probably have finished third, ahead of two or three other teams. Would that change Jayson's opinion of Alex Rodriguez's "value?" And if it would, then I submit that this house of cards, atop which Jayson's definition of "value" rests, has just collapsed under its own illogical weight.

That's better than I could have said it.

Eric | 11:11 PM EST | TrackBack: 1

Bonds Still The Man

Just announced, Barry Bonds is once again the National league MVP. Not only was he the best player in the league, but I think he had the following going for him:

1) Many writers who had soured on Bonds in the past because of his stoic demeanor with the media may have softened their opinions of him, personally, with the recent passing of his father, Bobby Bonds.
2) He played for a first place (playoff) team, who some people still think means a damned thing.

Regardless, he was the 2003 Sabey Award winner, and now has the less-coveted NL MVP award to go with it. Better make room on the mantel.

Eric | 02:04 PM EST | TrackBack: 1

November 17, 2003

The 2003 Sabey Awards Part 5: NL MVP

And so we come to the final day of the 2003 Sabey Awards. To recap:

The 2003 Sabey Awards Part 1: Rookie of the Year
The 2003 Sabey Awards Part 2: AL Cy Young
The 2003 Sabey Awards Part 3: NL Cy Young
The 2003 Sabey Awards Part 4: AL MVP

REGULAR METRICS

               Age  AVG  OBP  SLG   BB   K   XBH  HR  AB    R   RBI
Barry Bonds     39  341  529  749  148   58   68  45  390  111   90
Todd Helton     30  358  458  630  111   72   87  33  583  135  117
Javy Lopez      33  328  378  687   33   90   75  43  457   89  109
Mike Lowell     29  276  350  530   56   78   60  32  492   76  105
Albert Pujols   23  359  439  667   79   65   95  43  591  137  124
Gary Sheffield  34  330  419  604   86   55   78  39  576  126  132
Sammy Sosa      35  279  358  553   62  143   62  40  517   99  103
Jim Thome       33  266  385  573  111  182   80  47  578  111  131
Preston Wilson  29  282  343  537   54  139   80  36  600   94  141

ADVANCED METRICS

               Win Shares   EqA   RARP
Barry Bonds     39.21 (2)   420  106.5
Todd Helton     33.52 (4)   345   73.3
Javy Lopez      29.73 (6)   337   64.4
Mike Lowell     23.04 (21)  299   41.7
Albert Pujols   41.13 (1)   362   90.8
Gary Sheffield  34.51 (3)   341   73.9
Sammy Sosa      21.77 (30)  303   38.3
Jim Thome       30.00 (5)   321   58.3
Preston Wilson  19.92 (39)  279   30.4

Okay, so I left Eric Gagne off the list. This was more out of laziness than any lack of merit on Gagne's part. He did put up more Win Shares (24.98) than three of the hitters here, but lets not kid ourselves, he wasn't going to win this award.

Here's a short list of others who won't be winning this award:

Javy Lopez - He broke the single-season record for most homers by a catcher, just edging out my drinking buddy Todd Hundley. This was an uncharacteristically productive season for Javier, who is usually just this side of worthless at the plate. His career year also came at a most opportune time, considering this was his walk year.

Mike Lowell - He had a very nice season, but wasn't even the best third baseman in the league (Scott Rolen), and might not have been the best player on his own team (Pudge Rodriguez).

Sammy Sosa - Come on. The guy was 30th in Win Shares, and only put up a .358 OBP. Great player, but didn't have a great season. Plus he missed some time RE: Corked Bat.

Jim Thome - Great pickup by the Phillies. The AVG was a twenty point drop from his career mark, but you can't complain about a .958 OPS in his first year in the league.

Preston Wilson - Nuff said.

While this is really a two horse race, I need to at least mention Todd Helton and player/agent Gary Sheffield. These guys actually put up very similar seasons in terms of Win Shares, EqA, and RARP. Sheff would probably get the nod because he doesn't play half of his games in a Batting Cage and he plays a (slightly) more demanding defensive position.

Poor Albert Pujols. The man is only (allegedly) 23 years old, and has already put up three MVP-caliber seasons. And, thanks to MLB's indentured servant rules, he only made $900k this year, and will continue to make chicken feed for the next three seasons. Unless he gets indicted on cocaine charges in the Dominican Republic or we find out he's actually 42, he stands to see a hefty raise come 2007. If he played in the American League, he'd run away with the award this year. Unfortunately for him, God happens to play in the National League.

Barry Bonds put up his worst year since 2000, when he posted a Neifi Perez-esque 1.128 OPS. He still managed to put up an otherworldly 1.278. Barry Bonds' production continues to boggle the mind. He led the league in OBP, SLG, OPS (duh), walks, intentional walks, BB/PA, BB/K, groundball-to-flyball ratio (not sure how impressive this is, but he led the league in it nonetheless), RC/27 (runs created per 27 outs), isolated power, secondary average (I'm just going through ESPN.com's sortable statistics at this point), etc. The only knock against him this year is that he played only 130 games. This explains why Pujols held a slight edge in Win Shares, but it won't be enough to deny Bonds his third straight (sixth overall) MVP award.

2003 Sabey Choice: Barry Bonds
Predicted MLB Winner: Barry Bonds

Eric | 01:00 PM EST | TrackBack: 0

November 14, 2003

The 2003 Sabey Awards Part 4: AL MVP

If you missed them, check out the last two days of Sabey Award coverage:

The 2003 Sabey Awards Part 1: Rookie of the Year
The 2003 Sabey Awards Part 2: AL Cy Young
The 2003 Sabey Awards Part 3: NL Cy Young

I've been looking at each of the candidates and evaluating them statistically. I give the Sabey to the player I feel is most deserving, and also make a prediction as to who will actually be chosen for the award.

NORMAL METRICS

                 Age AVG  OBP  SLG   BB   K   XBH  HR  AB    R   RBI
Garret Anderson  31  315  345  541   31   83   82  29  638   80  116
Bret Boone       34  294  366  535   68  125   75  35  622  111  117
Carlos Delgado   31  302  426  593  109  137   71  42  570  117  145
Nomar Garcia...  30  301  345  524   39   61   78  28  658  120  105
David Ortiz      27  288  369  592   58   83   72  31  448   79  101
Jorge Posada     32  281  405  518   93  110   54  30  481   83  101
Alex Rodriguez   28  298  396  600   87  126   83  47  607  124  118
Manny Ramirez    31  325  427  587   97   94   74  37  569  117  104
Shannon Stewart  29  307  364  459   52   66   59  13  573   90   73
Frank Thomas     35  267  390  562  100  115   77  42  546   87  105

ADVANCED METRICS

                    Win Shares  EqA  RARP
Garret Anderson     25.26 (11)  298  38.0
Bret Boone          29.71 (3)   313  66.0
Carlos Delgado      32.21 (2)   338  70.1
Nomar Garciaparra   25.19 (12)  296  55.1
David Ortiz         15.09 (68)  316  40.2
Jorge Posada        27.75 (5)   318  58.4
Alex Rodriguez      32.51 (1)   326  79.1
Manny Ramirez       27.59 (7)   341  70.7
Shannon Stewart     18.43 (40)  283  23.1
Frank Thomas        22.82 (19)  318  51.8
* explanations: win shares, eqa, and rarp

1) How can a player on a last-place team be the MVP? They would have finished last without him.
2) He struggled late in the season, when the games "really" matter.
3) He's smelly.
4) He doesn't play for the Yankees.
5) He makes too much money.

Those last three were filler, but you get the point. The first two arguments are not only misguided, but are downright ignorant. Dan Werr writes impressively about this in his AL MVP article at baseballprimer.com. The purpose of statistical analysis as it pertains to baseball players is to take the player out of the context in which he performed, and attempt to universalize his performance for comparison purposes. Is it Alex Rodriguez' fault that his team is lousy and he didn't play "meaningful" games in September? Are we to believe that Jorge Posada's performance in late-season games against also-rans like the Orioles and Devil Rays was somehow more "valuable" than A-Rod's in games against much tougher teams like the A's and Mariners? As you and I both know, the value of a win in September is roughly equivalent to the value of a win in April (or March, as in this season). So rather than debate the merits (or lack thereof) of these vagaries, I will instead make an attempt at determining, simply, which player is the best. The "Best Player" and the "Most Valuable Player", in my estimation, are rephrasings of the same conclusion.

Jayson Stark's non-sensical ramblings notwithstanding, Shannon Stewart is not a legitimate candidate for MVP. For that matter, David Ortiz and Garret Anderson aren't either. Anderson actually had more Win Shares this season than Nomah, who also won't be bringing home the hardware. Nomar and Ortiz were probably 3-4 on their own team this season, behind Manny, Trot Nixon, and probably even Bill Mueller.

I've always been a big fan of Frank Thomas the ballplayer. Even though Frank Thomas the human being has had less-than-stellar moments (like when he said his $10 mill annual salary was insulting), I've always been impressed by his talents. Before OBP and SLG were the talk of the town, The Big Hurt was putting up 1000 OPS seasons consistently. The guy was a beast for most of the 90's, and returned (mostly) to form this season after a couple of lackluster campaigns. His average isn't what it used to be, but he still walks a ton and can hit the ball a long way. Not the MVP though.

With Mike Piazza's recent string of mediocre numbers and painful groin injuries, Jorge Posada has become the marquee offensive backstop in all of baseball. Javy Lopez had a ridiculous season offensively, but I'd still take Jorgie for the long haul (though he's 32 already). He's got pop, he's a switch-hitter, and you've just gotta love a catcher who gets on base at a .400 clip. Though he plays a demanding defensive position, he's no great shakes in the field. He still passes balls like Dan Marino and, while I have heard that his throwing has improved, I certainly can't tell from his stats (.282, .290, .280 CS% the past three seasons).

Bret Boone, despite having a very large head, is quite a player. He's a gold glover at 2B, which makes his offensive production that much more impressive. Any time you can get significant production AND great defense from one of the big three (C, SS, 2B), you've got a great player on your hands. I don't know whether it's the THG or the Starbucks or if something just clicked, but ever since coming to Seattle, the man has been a hitting machine. He could take a few more walks, but other than that, he's the best second-baseman in the game. Not the MVP.

It should come as no surprise that C-Del, M-Ram, and A-Rod were in the top five in the AL in OPS, RARP (Runs Above Replacement batter at Position), runs scored, and SLG. This is the cream of the crop, folks. It should also come as no surprise that these three players rank at or near the top in annual salary (Rodriguez and Ramirez are 1 and 2, with Delgado not far behind). These are the kind of offensive forces that you build a franchise around (albeit with more reasonable price tags). Rodriguez is the youngest and the only of the three on the better side of 30. Ramirez had the highest average of the three, and had an OBP just a shade higher than Delgado. Rodriguez was tops in the league in SLG. A-Rod also swiped 17 bases in 20 attempts for an 85% success rate. What really separates these three behemoths from each other is their performance relative to others who play their position. LF and 1B are the two least demanding defensive positions (according to Bill James' defensive spectrum, not counting DH), while shortstop is the single-most demanding position (not counting catcher, which is considered a special case). The defensive spectrum looks like this:

[ DH - 1B - LF - RF - 3B - CF - 2B - SS - C ]

Offense is more highly concentrated on the left end of the spectrum, while defense is more highly concentrated on the right end. It's much harder to find a productive offensive player at 2B or SS than it is at 1B or DH. It is typical for a ballplayer to move leftward along the spectrum, though it is rare for one to move rightward. With any luck, Mr. Piazza will be making a great leftward shift in the coming season, though he may end up shifting even further for an AL team. The defensive spectrum attempts to illustrate how similar offensive production is much more valuable from a shortstop than it is from a left-fielder or a first-baseman. This difference is reflected in a player's RARP. While Delgado and Rodriguez put up similar offensive numbers this season (Delgado held the edge in most, including OPS), A-Rod's performance is more impressive because his was done while playing a position that is less inclined to do so.

2003 Sabey Choice: Alex Rodriguez
Predicted MLB Winner: Alex Rodriguez

Eric | 11:58 PM EST | TrackBack: 2

November 11, 2003

The 2003 Sabey Awards Part 3: NL Cy Young

If you missed them, check out the last two days of Sabey Award coverage:

The 2003 Sabey Awards Part 1: Rookie of the Year
The 2003 Sabey Awards Part 2: AL Cy Young

I've been looking at each of the candidates and evaluating them statistically. I give the Sabey to the player I feel is most deserving, and also make a prediction as to who will actually be chosen for the award.

Today I will look at the National League Cy Young award.

Player               Age IP     K    BB  HR  ERA   WHIP   K/9   K/BB  HR/9
Eric Gagne           27   82.1  137   20   2  1.20  0.69  14.98  6.85  0.22
Kevin Millwood       28  222.0  169   68  19  4.01  1.25   6.85  2.49  0.77
Russ Ortiz           29  212.1  149  102  17  3.81  1.31   6.32  1.46  0.72
Mark Prior           23  211.1  245   50  15  2.43  1.10  10.43  4.90  0.64
Jason Schmidt        30  207.2  208   46  14  2.34  0.95   9.01  4.52  0.61
John Smoltz          36   64.1   73   8   2  1.12  0.87  10.21  9.13  0.28
Billy Wagner         32   86.0  105   23   8  1.78  0.87  10.99  4.57  0.84
Woody Williams       37  220.2  153   55  20  3.87  1.25   6.24  2.78  0.82
Randy Wolf           27  200.0  177   78  27  4.23  1.27   7.97  2.27  1.22
Kerry Wood           26  211.0  266  100  24  3.20  1.19  11.35  2.66  1.02

Unlike the American League race, where every player was a viable candidate for the award, there are a few stinkers here. Despite racking up 21 wins, Russ Ortiz wasn't very impressive this season (or in previous seasons, really). He has benefited much from playing for great teams (Braves, Giants), many of which played in PacBell, a great pitcher's park. His ERA is better than average for the league, but the guy walked 102 batters in 212 innings. What up with that? You might be saying, "Yea, well Kerry Wood walked 100 batters in 211 innings." True, but Mr. Wood also led the league in strikeouts, while Russ Ortiz had a lower strikeout rate than all-but-one of the candidates here. Which brings us to...

Woody Williams. Woody put up very good numbers in the first half, posting an ERA just a shade over 3.00 (3.01 to be precise). My man fell off the wagon (or maybe it was back on the wagon, given his performance in recent years) in Mid-July, though. He put up a bloated 5.23 ERA post-All-Star, whilst giving up 11 homers in only 86 innings.

The next two to leave are teammates. One pitched in the All-Star Game, the other just became a free agent and will likely command more money over more years than a middle-of-the-road starting pitcher should be hauling in. If you guessed Randy Wolf and Kevin Millwood, give yourself a gold star. Perhaps someone can look this up for me, but I would venture a guess that these are the two worst teammates to ever be candidates for this award in the same season. They both had ERA's over 4.00, they both had K/BB in the lower 2's, and while Wolf's K/9 is good, he gave up a slew of long balls this year: almost 1.25 jacks-per-nine. I pity the poor team who signs Millwood to a five-year, $60 million deal (please don't be the Mets, please don't be the Mets).

Billy Wagner (Wags) is a great pitcher with great stuff. He struck out more batters per nine innings than either John Smoltz or Mark Prior. His K/BB is good but not great for a closer. He's a bit prone to the tater, having given up 8 in 86 innings. Nevertheless, he was a huge pickup recently for the Phils, and should help put them over the top in the NL East this coming season. However, he happened to pitch during the same season as two of the best closers of all time (yes, I know it's early to say it, but it's hard to argue). Alas, Wagner won't be winning the Cy Young this year (or any other year, really).

Kerry Wood had another monster strikeout season, leading the bigs in both K's, K/9, and, unfortunately, almost leading the majors in walks (that particular honor belongs to Victor Zambrano). Wood could very well win a Cy Young award one day, that day just isn't today (or any day this week). He's not nearly the best pitcher on his own team, let alone in the whole league.

Now let's get down to it. We have four pitchers left: two starters, two relievers. John Smoltz had a brilliant year for the Braves, and actually posted a better ERA and K/BB than Eric Gagne. However, it's hard to overlook the man who broke the modern-day K/9 record (previously held by one Armando Benitez, when he K'd 14.77 batters per nine innings in 1999, splitting time between setup and, when Johnny Franco went on the DL, closer). Gagne was flat-out sick this year, notching an ERA of 1.20, a WHIP of 0.69, and a HR/9 of 0.22. That's just over 1/5 of one homerun every nine innings. Did I mention he set the record for most K's per nine innings? The man struck out nigh 15 batters for every 27 outs he recorded. He blew zero saves this season (one if you count the All-Star Game), though I don't find saves all that indicative of a pitcher's performance. This was quite possibly the best season for a relief pitcher ever, putting Dennis Eckersley's '92 Cy Young season to shame in virtually every category.

Deciding on the best starting pitcher between Mark Prior and Jason Schmidt is really a toss-up. Jason Schmidt had a better WHIP, but that was likely due to the Giants' infield defense being significantly better than the Cubs'. Their walks were about the same, homers were about the same, IP were about the same, ERA were about the same. See where I'm going with this? The main thing that really separates these two pitchers' performances is Prior's strikeout rate, which is a good bit better than Schmidt's. That's not to take anything away from Schmidt, who struck out more than a batter-per-inning, a great mark for a starting pitcher. But Prior struck out 37 more guys and, subsequently, had a better K/9 and K/BB ratio.

If Mark Prior were in the American League this season, he would have been my choice for AL Cy Young. It's unfortunate for him that he was not, because I think Eric Gagne was a better pitcher this year. Prior had a phenomenal year, and undoubtedly (barring injury) has one, probably multiple Cy Young awards in his future. He's only 23, and is already one of the best pitchers in the game. If you were to ask me who I would rather have on my team, the choice wouldn't even be close. Prior would be my #1 pick among all pitchers in the majors, but that's a different story. Gagne was obscenely good this year and, although he was probably babied a bit (as are most closers not named Mariano Rivera), he is the 2003 Saby Award winner for National League Cy Young.

2003 Saby Choice: Eric Gagne
Predicted MLB Winner: Eric Gagne

Eric | 09:56 AM EST | TrackBack: 0

November 10, 2003

The 2003 Sabey Awards Part 2: AL Cy Young

Yesterday, in The 2003 Sabey Awards Part 1, I took a look at the American League and National League Rookie of the Year races.

Today I will break down the American League Cy Young candidates.

All of these pitchers had very good or great seasons, but only one can win the award (duh).

                Age IP     K   BB  HR  ERA   WHIP  K/9   K/BB  HR/9
Bartolo Colon   30  242.0  173  67  30  3.87  1.20  6.43  2.58  1.12
Keith Foulke    31   86.2   88  20  10  2.08  0.89  9.14  4.40  1.04
Roy Halladay    26  266.0  204  32  26  3.25  1.07  6.90  6.38  0.88
Tim Hudson      28  240.0  162  61  15  2.70  1.08  6.08  2.66  0.56
Esteban Loaiza  31  226.1  207  56  17  2.90  1.11  8.23  3.70  0.68
Pedro Martinez  32  186.2  206  47   7  2.22  1.04  9.93  4.38  0.34
Jamie Moyer     40  215.0  129  66  19  3.27  1.23  5.40  1.96  0.80
Mark Mulder     26  186.2  128  40  15  3.13  1.18  6.17  3.20  0.72
Mike Mussina    34  214.2  195  40  21  3.40  1.08  8.18  4.88  0.88
Andy Pettitte   31  208.1  180  50  21  4.02  1.33  7.78  3.60  0.91

There's only one relief pitcher in this group, and he isn't going to win. Keith Foulke had a great year as a closer for the Oakland A's, racking up 43 saves (overrated), while posting the lowest ERA and WHIP and the highest K/9 among the candidates. Unlike typical modern-day closers, Foulke actually pitched more than one inning on 21 occasions this season (Eric Gagne did so only 11 times). Unlike Gagne's candidacy in the NL, where the argument could be made that there aren't any ridiculous starting pitchers, the same can't be said of Foulke.

Bartolo Colon, while fat, was not the best pitcher in the American League. His rotundness notwithstanding, he posted the highest HR/9, third-highest WHIP, and second-lowest K/BB. He pitched the second-most innings, but gave up too many homeruns and did not strike out enough batters.

Forty-year-old Jamie Moyer is the oldest by six years, but that's not why he won't win the award. His HR/9 was very good, but his WHIP was only lower than Andy Pettitte's, and he simply doesn't ring up enough K's. He's a great pitcher, and probably will be for a few more years (I can't believe I just said that), but his K/9 and K/BB leave much to be desired. He was likely helped out considerably by the Mariners' defense and their four gold gloves. If he put that many balls into play with the Mets' defense behind him, he wouldn't have been nearly as "lucky".

Andy Pettitte had been a very good pitcher for the Yankees over the years, but he struggled away from the Stadium, posting an ERA a half-run higher on the road this season. He also gave up many more homeruns (15 to 6). This was just a flukey season for him, though. Right? Hardly. Over the previous three seasons (2000-2002), Pettitte's ERA was more than three-quarters of a run worse on the road (4.20 to 3.46), and his walks were way up (75 to 48) in a similar number of innings (268 to 275.2). Any ballclub interested in signing Pettitte to a megabucks contract may want to keep these in mind, especially if he'll be pitching his home games at Ten-Run Field in Houston. He wasn't even the best pitcher on his team, let alone the best in the league.

Along those lines, I'm also going to eliminate Mark Mulder. He had a great year for the A's, but wasn't quite as good as teammate Tim Hudson. They posted similar numbers, with Mulder posting better strikeout rates and Hudson giving up fewer homeruns. At the end of the day, I give the nod to Hudson because he posted comparable numbers over many more innings (53.1 more to be exact).

While I'm pickin' off A's, I'll dismiss Hudson too. Though slightly better than Mulder, his K/9 was not great and his K/BB was fairly poor. He had the second-best HR/9 here, but that just wasn't enough.

The Moose has been let loose. Mike Mussina put up another great season in pinstripes, and was overshadowed again (think Roger Clemens in 2001) by a teammate with lesser stats but more wins. I'm also going to cut Esteban Loaiza. I don't really have great reasons for cutting either of these guys, except that they weren't quite as good as Pedro and Halladay. They both put up tremendous numbers, and either could have won this award if the competition weren't so stiff.

Halladay or Pedro. Pedro or Halladay. This is a tough one, guys. Other than innings pitched and KK/B, Pedro dominated this race in almost every important category. His K/9 was awesome for a starting pitcher, his ERA and WHIP were microscopic (Halladay's WHIP was almost as low), and his HR/9 was otherworldly. The freakin' guy gave up seven homeruns in almost 190 innings! Despite Halladay throwing 80 more innings and posting the best K/BB of any starting pitcher in the bigs, I have to give this one to Pedro. Halladay will probably win the real award, but Pedro gets the Sabey.

2003 Saby Choice: Pedro Martinez
Predicted MLB Winner: Roy Halladay

Eric | 02:40 PM EST | TrackBack: 0

November 09, 2003

The 2003 Sabey Awards Part 1: Rookie of the Year

Ladies and Gentlemen, I am proud to bring you the first annual Sabey Awards, where I pick my winners of MLBs fall awards. The candidates are those suggested by MLB.com's Awards page. I guess these are considered the official candidates, though quite a few of them are borderline at best. Quite frankly, I had to click on the "R. Johnson, TOR" link just to find out that the "R" stood for "Reed". My ignorance to the lesser-knowns notwithstanding, I will attempt to evaluate each player objectively via rudimentary statistical analysis. So, without further ado...

American League

When I think of the AL ROY candidates, the usual names come to mind: Hideki Matsui, Angel Berroa, Jody Gerut. MLB.com evidently needed ten candiates for each award, so we also get Joe Somebodys like Craig Monroe and the aforementioned Reed Johnson. Nevertheless, each player will be given equal consideration, as I attempt to not let my Big-Cityness cloud my objectivity. I am going to compare the hitters to each other and the pitchers to each other, and then decide on a winner based on the results of those comparisons.

The Hitters

Rocco Baldelli, Devil Rays

Below are the pertinent stats for each hitter...

Player          Age AVG OBP SLG BB  K XBH HR AB R RBI SB/CS
Rocco Baldelli 22 289 326 416 30 128 51 11 637 89   78 27/10
Angel Berroa     25 287 338 451 29 100 54 17 567 92   73 21/5
Jody Gerut       26 279 336 494 35 70 57 22 480 66   75 4/5
Reed Johnson     26 294 353 427 20 67 33 10 412 79   52 5/3
Hideki Matsui    29 287 353 435 63 86 59 16 623 82 106 2/2
Craig Monroe     26 240 287 449 27 89 42 23 425 51   70 4/2
Mark Teixeira    23 259 331 480 44 120 50 26 529 66   84 1/2

Okay, let's start weeding them out. Craig Monroe, despite his 23 HR and 70 RBI, is just this side of useless. That .287 OBP is downright Rey Ordonez-esque (that is, if you disregard his uncharacteristic 2003 campaign where he hit .316 in 117 AB, albeit with only two walks). His slugging is middle-of-the-pack here, but he's old for a non-Japanese rookie at 26, and shouldn't really be in consideration for this award.

Reed Johnson isn't going to win this award either. His .353 OBP is nice, but is largely contributed to by his .294 AVG. 20 BB in 412 AB is almost as bad as the Baldelli kid.

Speaking of Baldelli, can a brother get a base-on-balls every once in awhile? 30 BB in 637 AB is actually worse than Choppin' Broccoli himself. He did manage to swipe 27 bases, but at the cost of 10 caught-stealing (73%, a bit higher than the break-even point). He's essentially Alphonso Soriano without the power numbers which, as we know, isn't much at all.

To narrow it down to a nice even (odd) three, I'm going to show Mark Teixeira (or as my buddy Steve calls him, Tex-ee-era) the door. His 26 bombs are the most among the candidates, and he has the second-highest slugging among this group, but his .259 AVG and .331 OBP aren't going to cut it with the Beane-counters here.

Jody Gerut outslugged everyone here, besting $7-million-per-year Hideki Matsui by almost 60 points. However, he only reached base 33% of the time.

That leaves us with The Big Two. Hideki Matsui, the heavy favorite to win this award at the onset of the 2003 campaign, and Angel Berroa, who most people hadn't even heard of (myself included) when 2003 kicked off. Berroa bested Matsui in slugging by 15 points, which is not much more than negligible. Berroa stole 21 bases in 26 attemps, which is a terrific 80% success rate. I am not a big fan of the stolen base, but if you can swipe them at an 80% clip, be my guest. Their homeruns were very similar: 17 to 16 in favor of Berroa. Matsui held a big lead in RBI, but that's largely (read: entirely) a product of the Yankees sluggardly sluggers clogging up the bases in front of him. When you have guys like Jason Giambi (.412 OBP) and Jorge Posada (.405 OBP) hitting in front of you, it's not that hard to rack up the ribbies. Matsui gets the edge in OBP by 17 points. While this is similar to Berroa's edge in SLG, OBP is considered to be much more valuable than SLG. The ability to get on base is, quite simply, the ability to avoid making outs. As we know, there is no commodity as precious to a team as outs are.

The Pitchers

Lance Carter, Devil Rays

I'm not really sure why I'm even looking at these. None of them ever get any press for this award, and it's already almost 3am. But I will forge ahead.

Player             Age IP   K BB HR ERA WHIP K/9 K/BB HR/9
Lance Carter        28 79.0 47 19 12 4.33 1.15 5.35 2.47 1.37
Mike MacDougal      26 64.0 57 32 4 4.08 1.50 8.02 1.78 0.56
Francisco Rodriguez 21 86.0 95 35 12 3.04 0.99 9.94 2.71 1.26

In the race to decide who the best AL pitcher to not win the ROY this year, there are really only two horses here. Lance Carter is basically a bum, and has no business on this list. For that matter, let's make it a one-horse race really quickly. Mike MacDougal had a nice season, with a very good K/9 and a superb HR/9. However, K-Rod was better in almost every category, save HR/9. His WHIP was razor-thin, his K/9 was terrific, and his K/BB was very good as well. Plus, he's only 21, so despite the rest of the Angels team falling off the face of the earth this season, Francisco Rodriguez was far-and-away the best rookie pitcher in the American League.

The Final Answer

This was a harder decision than I thought it would be. For most of this season, I have felt that Hideki Matsui's candidacy was based largely on his overvalued RBI total. Compound this with the fact that I am a Yankee-hater, and I could have very (very, very) easily picked Berroa here. However, I think the correct choice should be Matsui. He demolishes Berroa in BB/K and BB/AB and, despite his questionable eligibility, he is my choice for 2003 American League Rookie of the Year.

2003 Saby Choice: Hideki Matsui
Predicted MLB Winner: Hideki Matsui

National League

As with the American League, I will divide the candidates into Hitters and Pitchers, which will allow for more reasonable comparison. Also like the AL, there are a number of players here who are mainly filler so that MLB could run the list to ten.

The Hitters

While the American League was short on pitching in this race, the Natioinal League is a bit short on hitting. Each of these four guys had nice rookie campaigns, though.

Player          Age AVG OBP SLG BB  K XBH HR AB R RBI SB/CS
Marlon Byrd     26 303 366 418 44 94 39 7 495 86   45 11/1
Miguel Cabrera  20 268 325 468 25 84 36 12 314 39   62 0/2
Jason Phillips  27 298 373 442 39 50 36 11 403 45   58 0/1
Scott Podsednik 27 314 379 443 56 91 46 9 558 100   58 43/10

One player is clearly the class of this list, and I will get to him in a minute. There are no duds on this list (aka Craig Monroes), as all four of these candidates put up very nice seasons. Miguel Cabrera, a mid-season callup from AA, has by far the highest ceiling, in particular because of his age (he's six years younger than the next youngest player here). He had the highest SLG here, and drove in the most runs of the group, despite having the fewest number of at-bats. However, he had a lot of trouble getting on base, hitting only .268 with an OBP of .325. His walk rate isn't bad considering his age, and he is a potential superstar for the Marlins.

Marlon Byrd looked like a bust two months into the season. He was hitting a Pat Burrell-esque .193 at the end of May, with a pathetic .538 OPS. He turned it around nicely, though, finishing at .303 and .784, respectively. His plate discipline is decent (44 BB in 495 AB), and he made the most of his speed, swiping 11 bases with only one caught-stealing. He didn't hit for much power, but that's somewhat expected from your leadoff hitter.

Jason Phillips was a huge surprise for the Mets. He was called up in mid-May for good, splitting time between catcher and first-base after Mike Piazza tore his groin. He's old for a rook at 27, but he hit just shy of .300, and showed impressive plate discipline, posting the second-highest OBP here at .373. His 11 homers are good for a catcher but shabby for a 1B. All told, his BB rate will probably get better with more experience, but he needs to hit the weight room to add some pop to his bat.

My top choice among the hitters is definitely Scott Podsednik. He had the highest AVG and OBP, hitting .314 and walking just about once every ten at-bats. He was also very successful on the bases, stealing 43 bags in 53 attempts (81% success rate). He scored 100 runs on a lousy Brewer team. He's no pup (27 years old), but he was a pleasant suprise for the Beermakers.

The Pitchers

Player             Age IP    K BB HR ERA WHIP K/9 K/BB HR/9
Brad Lidge          26 85.0 97 42 6 3.60 1.20 10.27 2.31 0.64
Horacio Ramirez     23 182.1 100 72 21 4.00 1.39 4.94 1.39 1.04
Jeriome Robertson   26 160.2 99 64 23 5.10 1.52 5.55 1.55 1.29
Oscar Villarreal    21 98.0 80 46 6 2.57 1.29 7.35 1.74 0.55
Brandon Webb        24 180.2 172 68 12 2.84 1.15 8.57 2.53 0.60
Dontrelle Willis    21 160.2 142 58 13 3.30 1.28 7.95 2.45 0.73

This is the group that most people expect the Rookie of the Year to come from, with most people putting their money on the D-Train. Before getting to him, lets pare this group down by a few.

The two worst pitchers here are Jeriome "Don't Call me Jerome" Robertson and Horacio Ramirez, particularly Robertson. His ERA was over 5, WHIP was over 1.5, and he gave up a ridiculous 23 taters in only 160.2 innings. I'm not really sure why he's a candidate, other than the obvious fact that he is actually a rookie. His stats are not very good, and he does not project well at all. Ramirez is a similar case, but he strikes me as a league-average pitcher who may be able to stick around simply because he's a lefty. He doesn't strike out a lot of guys, he gives up a lot of walks, and he's prone to the gopherball. He is only 23, but he smacks of Glendon Rusch to me.

Oscar Villarreal pitched well for the D-Backs, but really doesn't compare favorably to Brad Lidge, who can straight-up bring it. This guy was overshadowed in Houston by fireballers Billy Wagner and ex-Met Octavio Dotel, but he's got a cannon of an arm, and projects very well as a dominant closer-to-be. His K/9 and HR/9 are downright silly, and he kept his BB at a manageable level. These are very important, defense-independent stats, that are usually excellent indicators of a pitcher's ability to succeed year-in and year-out. However, it would be tough to give the award to Lidge with the year that another pitcher had.

Dontrelle Willis had a phenom-like first half, posting an ERA of 2.08 while giving up only three homeruns and fanning 79 batters in 82 innings. He was the toast of the town, and the early favorite to win this award. He must have hit a wall sometime in July, though, because he really fell apart in the second half. His 4.60 ERA was more than double his first half mark, while giving up 10 longballs in 78 innings. After soaring out to a 9-1 record at the All-Star break, he notched a mediocre 5-5 down the stretch. So, while his sideways cap and funky delivery were very entertaining, he was not the best rookie pitcher in the National League.

That honor goes to the oft-overlooked Brandon Webb. He bested Willis in almost every important category: IP, K/9, K/BB, HR/9, WHIP, ERA. This matchup wasn't even really close.

So we have our best hitter in Scott Podsednik. We have our best pitcher in Brandon Webb. Who's going to win? Neither of them, but that won't stop me from picking Webb as the Should-Be NL ROY. While Curt Schilling and Randy Johnson spent much of the year on the disabled list (and Johnson spent the rest of the time pitching like Reed Johnson), Brandon Webb was pitching like a #1 starter. I remember his debut as a starter, when he stepped in for the Big Unit to embarrass the Mets to the tune of 10 strikeouts and three hits. I haven't heard him mentioned in any Cy Young discussions, but he is certainly a viable candidate for that award too.

2003 Saby Choice: Brandon Webb
Predicted MLB Winner: Dontrelle Willis

I'll be back tomorrow with my analysis of the American League Cy Young candidates.

Eric | 04:34 PM EST | TrackBack: 0