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September 28, 2004

The Plan: Take One, Part Two

Yesterday, I began discussing the Star Ledger's plan to fix the Mets. You can read that here.

Today, I'll finish our discussion of that article, which includes the Mets pitching staff and potential free agent acquisitions.

PITCHING STAFF

SHOULD STAY

Starters: Kris Benson, Tom Glavine, Victor Zambrano and Steve Trachsel. It's a quartet of No. 3 starters on a playoff team, but if they add Matt Morris it could be one of the deepest rotations in the National League. This is, of course, all based on Zambrano not having elbow surgery.

If anyone would actually take Tom Glavine and/or Steve Trachsel, God bless them. Glavine and Trachsel are both #4 starters, so if Victor Zambrano and Kris Benson can slot in as #2's, the staff might be in decent shape. That's a big "if", of course. Jeremy Heit did a nice job charting Benson's progress over the past few years in terms of game scores, and he's getting better. Since coming to the Mets, Benson's game scores break down thusly:

Less than 40: 2 (27,18)
Bet. 40 and 60: 4 (40,46,47,43)
More than 60: 4 (69,65,86,71)

Not bad. Three of those very good starts came in his past four outings, and against quality opponents in the Marlins, Braves, and Cubs. According to Newsday, Benson and the Mets are getting closer on a three-year deal worth $21-$24 million, which is probably okay. With Zambrano likely to make in the $1-$2 million range at arbitration, the Mets can probably afford to go a million or so over market to keep Benson.

I have no problem with Steve Trachsel as our fourth-best starter. He's not great, but he's not terrible. Sticking with the game score theme, here is how Trach's season breaks down, including tonight's start against the Braves:

Less than 40: 7 (12,31,34,23,25,38,35)
Bet. 40 and 60: 17 (48,54,49,46,54,59,41,54,55,45,41,50,53,49,51,45,54)
More than 60: 9 (61,62,67,64,70,68,69,64,63)

He mostly throws average games, with more very good games than terrible games. Yup, that fits the bill as a #4 starter. He's on the books for $5 million in 2005, which is palatable.

Glavine is another story. He's owed $10.5 million in 2005 and his $6.5 million option for 2006 will vest if he pitches 200 innings next season. If he doesn't, the Mets can opt out for $3 million. More important than the money is the fact that Glavine just isn't a very good pitcher. He's not terrible, but he's not really appreciably better than Trachsel. Here are his 2004 game scores, including tonight's game:

Less than 40: 7 (29,39,25,29,32,34,34)
Bet. 40 and 60: 17 (56,42,59,45,46,58,57,56,50,52,45,49,48,57,42,54,40)
More than 60: 8 (65,76,62,74,92,66,71,67)

Look familiar? It breaks down much the way Trachsel's season has. This wouldn't be a problem if Glavine was counted on as a #4 starter and paid #4 starter money. As it stands, the Mets expect #2-ish performance at #1-ish salary, and the numbers just don't work.

Bullpen: Braden Looper; Tyler Yates, Bartolome Fortunato and Matt Ginter. Looper is not proven, but he's fine for a rebuilding team that may or may not need a closer very often. They need a solid setup man, like Montreal's Luis Ayala, to replace Mike Stanton, and another lefty as well. Yates and Fortunato vie for the seventh-inning role and Ginter is the long man.

I don't have any real problems with these suggestions. Braden Looper is the Mets closer next year, and has done a good job in that role this season. He hasn't been lights out, and his strikeout rate isn't great (6.59 K/9). His walk and homerun rates have been terrific, though, allowing only 15 walks and 4 homeruns in 82 innings pitched. He'd make a better setup man if the Mets had a real closer, but he'll certainly do.

Tyler Yates, Bartolome Fortunato, and Matt Ginter are all largely unproven, but I would much sooner pay them minimum wage than spend $3-$4 million on has-beens like Mike Stanton and John Franco. Ginter is fine as a long man/spot starter, and Yates and Fortunato would put up good strikeout numbers in relief. It might make sense to start Fortunato at AAA to refine his approach, as he walks way too many batters. Yates, on the other hand, has probably learned all he can in the minors, and will either sink or swim at the big league level.

SHOULD LEAVE

Starters: Al Leiter. Mets will probably be too sentimental to do it, but it's time to cut the bonds on a fruitful seven-year relationship and sign Matt Morris. The Mets need a few starters who can throw 220 innings and Leiter is a six-inning pitcher who taxes the bullpen. Leiter will be sad, but pitching in Game 3 of the World Series for the Yankees will dry his tears.

Amen, brother. Al Leiter needs to take a long walk off a longer pier, so long as he doesn't find his way back to Shea when he's done walking. There is no sound, baseball reason to bring Leiter back in 2005. He's old, he's not very good, and he'll make too much money. I don't see the Yankees jumping too quickly at Leiter, though I could see him adding some "veteran presence" to a young team like the Marlins or the Phillies.

Bullpen: John Franco, Ricky Bottalico, Mike Stanton and Jae Seo. Franco will actually stay on as the bullpen coach. Bottalico has been good, but will make more money elsewhere. Art Howe used Stanton a lot, but he wasn't always reliable and is another guy that isn't part of a rebuilding process. Seo will fetch some value on the trade market.

All signs indicate that John Franco's days pitching for the Mets are over. He hasn't been used much in the second half this season, and the only question remaining is whether he'll try to catch on with another team come 2005.

Ricky Bottalico should probably go. He's been nice enough, but he'll likely want $1+ million, and isn't worth it.

Mike Stanton should certainly go, though it remains to be seen if the Mets will actually get rid of him. If he can bring a relief prospect in return for Stanton and half of his salary in 2005, I say take it.

I haven't yet given up on Jae Seo, but would not be sad to see him go. I'd be okay with him as the long man instead of Ginter, but frankly I don't really care either way. He is not going to be a star with two pitches that both act like change-ups. An 86 mph fastball and an 80 mph off-speed pitch isn't going to cut it in the big leagues (and hasn't all year).

BENCH

SHOULD STAY

Eric Valent, Vance Wilson Gerald Williams and Wilson Delgado. The Volkswagon Bug Bench -- they all have a V or W in their names. They obviously need to add some power, especially from the right side, but these guys have proven their worth this season. Valent can play every day, if need be.

SHOULD LEAVE

Todd Zeile, Jeff Keppinger, Craig Brazell and Jason Phillips. Zeile is retiring, and the rest can go to Triple A.

Eric Valent is a keeper. Gerald Williams and Wilson Delgado are not. Joe McEwing will be back, and can aptly take the spot of both Williams and Delgado. None of the three can hit, and Super Joe plays passably at shortstop, second, and even centerfield.

If you have to keep one catcher, I'd hang on to Jason Phillips. Neither Phillips nor Vance Wilson can hit much, but Phillips is younger and cheaper, and can play first base in a pinch.

Todd Zeile is retiring and Jeff Keppinger should probably go back to AAA. I would keep Danny Garcia as the second-baseman off-the-bench, since he'll get dirty, will step into a pitch, and can take a walk. Craig Brazell can stay too. He has a lot of holes in his swing and isn't much defensively, but he's got great pop, which we've missed on the bench in recent years.

SHOULD COME C Jason Varitek. Not only is he a good all-around player, he will become the gritty team leader this club has needed for a long time. Not afraid to get in anyone's face, regardless of the player's stature, and is a full-accountability guy.

RHP Matt Morris. He's been inconsistent this year, so he won't command as much money in this market, but he's had a very good overall body of work. A local guy from Rockland County, N.Y., who went to Seton Hall, he's pitched in pennant races and has performed under pressure. Second choice is Russ Ortiz.

1B Paul Konerko. He will probably be available in a trade and this would solve a lot of problems about who plays where.

Jeremy did a great job explaining why the Mets should stay away from Jason Varitek, so I won't waste my time. Read his analysis, you'll be glad you did.

I'm iffy on Paul Konerko. He hit his 41st homerun of the season tonight, only walks about as much as an average first baseman, isn't a great fielder (slightly below average according to UZR 2001-2003), and might be looking for too much money. I'd sooner spend half (or less) on Tino Martinez to play outstanding defense at first, which would help out the young infielders immensely, adding whatever offense he can. J.T. Snow will also be a free agent, and he's known to be nifty with the glove and is having an absurdly out-of-character year at the plate, hitting .328/.431/.528. Despite those numbers, he probably won't command a big salary next season, though San Francisco might choose to keep him for another year.

Please don't get me started on Matt Morris. Why his name is thrown about as if he were a solid Major League starting pitcher is difficult to understand. He had his best year by far in 2001 with the Cardinals, when he posted a 3.16 ERA, 7.7 K/9, and 0.54 HR/9. It, as they say, has been all downhill since then. Have a look:

MATT MORRIS 2001-2004

        ERA   K/9   HR/9   BB/9
2001    3.16  7.70  0.54   2.25
2002    3.42  7.32  0.68   2.74
2003    3.76  6.27  1.04   2.04
2004    4.55  5.86  1.50   2.50

Not pretty. His walk rates have been pretty consistent, but his other peripheral stats (K/9 and HR/9) have been declining precipitously since 2001, and his ERAs have been a direct reflection of this trend. He turned 30 this year, and his days as a useful big league pitcher may be behind him. I wouldn't touch him with a ten-foot pole. Run. Far. Away.

Eric | 10:36 PM EST | Comments: 22 | TrackBack: 1

September 27, 2004

The Plan: Take One, Part One

Everyone has their own take on what it will take to fix the Mets. I firmly believe that any changes made to the roster or field management will be cosmetic and temporary, and will ring hollow until such time as:

a) the Wilpons sell the team or b) the Wilpons admit that they have no idea how to run a successful baseball team and completely remove themselves from the determination of baseball-related decisions and limit their involvement in the team to the writing of checks.

That said, there is a lot of time between now and next February when Spring Training 2005 begins, and while you're likely to see me pleading for the Wilpons to dismiss themselves with some frequency, space has to be filled via other means.

Just as you'll find here and in the comments, and in the writings of all of the terrific bloggers on my sidebar to the right, David Waldstein, in yesterday's Star Ledger, gave us his plan for repairing the fractured Mets franchise. Let's see what he had to say:

POSITION PLAYERS

SHOULD STAY

3B David Wright: He's the foundation for the next 10 years and should be moved permanently into the No. 3 hole. He's a very good defensive third baseman and is going to be an All-Star very soon. Don't trade him, don't move him to another position and don't over-coach him. Don't even talk to him.

Duh. Despite his recent slump, David Wright is still hitting .288/.326/.506, very good for a 21-year-old in his first season in the Majors. Wright has shown very good power thus far, and his plate discipline has been solid. He hasn't walked very much (12 in 243 at-bats), but he doesn't swing at many bad pitches, and has only struck out in 15.2% of his at-bats. As he continues hammering big-league pitching, the walks will come.

SS Jose Reyes. They should have traded him for Alfonso Soriano, but that train has left the station and now it's too late because he has to prove he can stay on the field. Maybe he'll be more comfortable and motivated at shortstop. If he can put his injuries behind him, he and Wright will provide a left side of the infield that will be the envy of small- and big-market teams for years to come.

Here's another scribe riding the Alfonso Soriano bandwagon. While Jose Reyes has yet to show that he can stay healthy and work a count, he IS only 21, is a terrific defender, and, despite fewer than 200 at-bats this season, is 15-for-16 in stolen bases. He probably won't develop the power that Soriano has, but his defense and speed could make him just as valuable. He's also seven years younger than Soriano, and costs only a fraction of his salary. Reyes needs to keep himself on the field, and needs to see more pitches. He is not one of the Mets' problems.

2B Kaz Matsui. He's a good player, and if the Mets had just left him alone without trying to change him and overcoach him from Day One of spring training he would have been fine. Move him to second, leave him alone and let him show how much he can change a game offensively.

If you throw out his dreadful June (.223/.266/.252), Kaz Matsui has actually hit fairly well (.292/.360/.453) prior to his return this week. While it's easy to just throw away a bad month to support an argument, it is not completely without merit. June was quite disproportionate with the rest of his season, and it is very likely that the rest of his season is better representative of his abilities. Like Reyes, Matsui has also been a proficient base-stealer, going 13-for-16. Given an offseason of training at second base I think he will be serviceable.

CF Mike Cameron. He probably saved 50 hits over what the Mets had in center field in the past. Although they paid him to hit, too, anything he does offensively is a bonus, like 29 home runs. He'll be better in his second year in New York.

Apologies to certain writers and brass who point out the occasional sun-lost flyball and over-run grounder, but Mike Cameron has been a colossal upgrade over centerfielders past, even if he hasn't been quite as sharp as his past few years were in Seattle. He should be even better next season with a year roaming Shea's outfield under his belt. He might make an even better right-fielder, should the Mets win the lottery.

As for his hitting, that should probably improve as well. He hit .260 from June through August, which would be plenty if he could stretch it out for a whole season. He had that pinky problem early on and the viral infection recently, which no doubt hurt his numbers. .260/.350/.450 would be more than acceptable for him next year.

RF Richard Hidalgo: He's streakier than a window washer, but very good defensively and has had some monster offensive years. The bet is that he turns it on when the team is in contention -- and when he turns it on he can be an MVP-caliber player.

Eh. I talked about Richard Hidalgo last week, so I'm not going to rehash that whole story again. If they're going to resign Hidalgo solely for his defense and whatever offense they can get out of him, the Mets will have to find some pop elsewhere in the lineup, more likely at first base.

SHOULD LEAVE

C/1B Mike Piazza. The Mets are rebuilding (again) and at 36 he's is not a rebuilding block. Kick in half his $15 million, ask him to defer a few million more, add a prospect and trade him to the Angels, where he would flourish under Mike Scioscia and help turn that team into a runaway division winner next year.

LF Cliff Floyd. This would be the Mets' secret file on Floyd: too many injuries and too many interviews. He had his moments this season when he was healthy, but the team lost its patience when he flipped the ball into the stands with only two outs and a runner on third in Philadelphia. Won't be easy to trade after he said his legs hurt so much he might have to DH in the next two years of his contract, but he doesn't fit the mold of the kind of player who can take the team where it should go.

I can't disagree with either of these moves. However, Mike Piazza the catcher is noticeably better, both offensively and defensively, than Mike Piazza the first-baseman. You probably knew this already, but the disparity is even more pronounced than I thought.

                               AB   AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS
Mike Piazza the Catcher       175  .337  .421  .566  .987
Mike Piazza the Firstbaseman  235  .221  .313  .370  .683

We're only talking a couple hundred at-bats either way, but the production difference is enormous. If Piazza can hit anywhere near the catching numbers in 2005, even for 130 games, he's definitely a keeper, even at $15 million. Let Vance Wilson catch against the Marlins and we're all set.

Cliff Floyd has seen his production fall every year since his .968 OPS in 2001. It was .921 in 2002, .894 in 2003, and stands at .814 in 2004. His mark this year reflects his struggles against left-handed pitching, though his .369/.373/.512 mark against righties could make him a lefty-righty platoon candidate next year. With any luck, that will be with some other team. Floyd's defense is passable at best, and a full-time player who can't hit lefties shouldn't be playing full-time (or be making full-time money). Of course, the fact that he's an injury-magnet makes him even less "full-time". It may be time to move on.

I'll be back tomorrow to break down the Star Ledger's plan for the pitching staff and free agency. Be sure to add your thoughts to the comments below. This and other blogs thrive because of reader participation, and it thrills me to no end to read and participate in the back-and-forth discussion about the Mets.

Eric | 11:13 AM EST | Comments: 12 | TrackBack: 1