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January 24, 2005
Texas Drops Out
According to an article in the Star-Telegram, the Rangers are dropping out of the Carlos Delgado sweepstakes because they are unwilling to move Mark Teixeira off of first base and Delgado is unwilling to sign as a full-time designated hitter. The article goes so far as to say that:
all signs indicated Delgado will play for the Mets this season.UPDATE #1: The Orioles are sticking to their 3-year deal, and they seem to think that Delgado will sign with the Mets (source: Baltimore Sun).
UPDATE #2: The Mets have pulled out? According to ESPN.com, the Mets have pulled out of the Delgado bidding.
Of course, this may just be rumor. I hope it isn't true, though. In case you weren't sure the Mets needed Delgado:
2004 Mets First Basemen (162 games): 73 Runs Created
2004 Carlos Delgado (120 games): 85 Runs Created
Extrapolated to an entire season, Delgado would have created 113 runs in 2004, and that takes into account a terrible first half. I didn't have VORP splits for Mets hitters, but ESPN.com provides RC splits, so that's what I used, even though it is inferior to VORP (VORP adjusts for ballpark and position played, amongst other things).
Using Runs Created, Delgado was worth approximately 40 runs more than the amalgamation of Mets first-basemen last season, which is roughly four wins, which is significant. I was surprised that Mets first-basemen performed so well last season, which makes me wonder if RC is more flawed than I first thought. Regardless, that is what I have to work with. Maybe Delgado would turn out to be worth six more wins, which would be an incredible improvement.
We should find out within the next 24-48 hours who Delgado will be playing for. If he doesn't sign with the Mets AND the Rangers are indeed out of it, keep your fingers crossed that the Orioles come out of the blue and sign him. As Andrew at Chuck 'n' Duck points out, if he signs with the Marlins, the Mets could be looking at another season as the fourth-best team in the NL East.
David Pinto at Baseball Musings has compiled his 2004 Probabilistic Model of Range by team, and the Mets clock in at 7th best in the Majors at converting expected outs into actual outs. They actually converted fewer outs than expected, though only around four-or-five total outs for the whole season. Twenty-five other teams performed below expectations, with the Cardinals and Red Sox sporting the most effecient defenses in the bigs.
David should have his ratings for individual players shortly, so it will be interesting to see how different players performed last year. Since we wll no longer be seeing league-wide UZR ratings (on account of MGL working for the Cardinals), David's work is probably the next best thing.
John Franco inked a one-year deal with the Astros for $700,000. Johnny is a good guy and put in some good years for the Mets, and I am happy to see him going out on his own terms. I am even happier that those terms don't include playing for the Mets. "They were the best offer," Franco said of the Astros deal, which must be like when my mother used to tell me I was her favorite sonny boy, knowing full well that my only siblings were both female.
The Eagles and the Pats are going to the Super Bowl. I wanted Atlanta and Pittsburgh to go, so I guess this is just another example of God shitting on me for being atheist. Such is life.
January 21, 2005
Cameron for Ibanez?
Will asked an interesting question in the comments yesterday:
What about Seattle? Do you see any likelihood that Cameron could wind up back there. They could use a CF, although they are close to their payroll limit. What could Seattle offer the Mets? How do the numbers look with a Raul Ibañez and (put another name here) trade?Kudos on including the eñe with Ibañez' name, by the way. Cameron would probably love to go back to Seattle, but I don't know if the Mets are really interested. Ibanez had a suprising season with the Mariners, hitting .304/.353/.472 in a terrible hitters park. Surprising to me at least, since I didn't think he was any good.
He's an above-average fielder (UZR of +6/162 games from 2000-2003). Offensively, he posted a higher VORP than Cameron last year (30.1 to 27.0). Given a similar offensive season in 2005, Cameron's VORP would stand to decrease for the Mets as he would be playing right field instead of center.
They are the same age (32, with Ibanez older by six months), and Ibanez is a couple million dollars cheaper. The two differences as I see it are that Cameron probably holds a slight edge offensively, at least for the Mets, with the better power numbers and stolen bases. He brings a huge advantage defensively, where he's probably a win or two better than Ibanez with the glove.
I expect that Cameron will have a better season offensively in 2005, considering his hand and wrist and toe bothered him for much of the year. I don't think it's outlandish to suggest that he is worth two wins over Raul Ibanez. If that's the case, then I would much rather have those wins than the $2 million the Mets would save by making the trade. $1 million for a win is a number the Mets would gladly spend.
January 18, 2005
Delgado Picks Final Four?
Carlos Delgado has apparently narrowed the field pursuing him to four teams. As Rotoworld put it, "This is just terrible news for the zero other teams that were looking to sign him". I don't even recall any other teams rumored to be interested in Delgado.
The Mets are entertaining offers for the recently-disgruntled Mike Cameron, but there's no reason for them to give him away. Despite what casual observers might have you believe, Cameron was still a very good defender last season, despite occasionally losing a flyball in the sun. The rumor wheel is a-flyin', with the latest stop a swap with Oakland for Eric Byrnes and Chad Bradford, with Bradford's inclusion presumably to offset some of Cameron's salary.
There is much debate as to whether this is a good deal for the Mets. I previously thought that it was foolish to give away a player of Cameron's defensive prowess and respectable offensive ability for a scrappy unspectacular outfielder and a submarining setup man. However, I began to think a bit differently after taking a closer look at this deal using VORP.
2003-2004 VORP
2003 2004 AVG
Mike Cameron 29.1 27.0 28.1
Eric Byrnes 25.1 33.1 29.1
Chad Bradford 24.3 9.2 16.8
Over the past two years, Byrnes and Bradford have averaged a combined 45.9 VORP, with Cameron averaging 28.1 by himself. That difference is 17.8 runs per season, or roughly two wins. Were the Mets to hold on to Cameron, this disparity would be even greater. Cameron's production as a Met moving forward would be as a right-fielder, which, based on his production the past two years, would result in a lower VORP. VORP is adjusted for position, and right-fielders typically perform somewhat better offensively than center-fielders (SEE: defensive spectrum).
Major League center-fielders averaged 13 runs above replacement (RARP) in 2004. Right-fielders averaged 15.2 RARP, so we could reasonably expect Cameron's VORP to drop a couple of points by switching to right field. Not very significant, but enough to push Byrnes' and Bradford's combined value to two full wins above Cameron's.
VORP is already park adjusted, so don't expect any difference there. This deal would save the Mets $3+ million in 2005, and Byrnes would be willing to play either left or right field, facilitating a potential Cliff Floyd trade. I love Cameron, but if Oakland is really offering this deal, and Cameron is really being difficult regarding a move to right field, this is a move that I would strongly consider making.
EDIT: This analysis only considers offensive contributions, which is a detriment to Mike Cameron. Even in right field, Cameron projects to be 15-or-20 UZR runs better than Byrnes, which would erase the two-win advantage that Byrnes/Bradford would offer.
Now, I don't personally think that Cameron's salary would prohibit the Mets from adding Delgado. However, if that's really the Mets' thinking, and the few million dollars saved by making a Cameron-Byrnes-Bradford exchange would mean that they would get Delgado in the fold, then I would be in favor of the deal, considering the production offset is basically a wash. Regardless, if the speculation all revolves around signing Delgado, then it would behoove the Mets to get that signing done first before worrying about where the payroll flexibility will come from.
December 20, 2004
Sweet Alou
NYFS is reporting that the Mets have come to terms with Moises Alou on a one-year deal in the $6-$8 million neighborhood, which is a very nice neighborhood for a 38-year-old outfielder with no range and frightening home/road splits. Just for fun I wanted to see how Alou might perform at Shea.
I performed a rudimentary analysis of Alou's 2004 home stats and, using ESPN.com's Park Factors, came up with a rough idea of what Alou might have done if those same at-bats took place at Shea Stadium instead of Wrigley Field.
This analysis has a number of problems, so it isn't to be taken too seriously. For one, I am only using a single year of stats and a single year of park factors, which is not usually good practice. This analysis also doesn't account for games actually played at Shea, which probably should be counted as Wrigley games if he were actually playing for the Mets. That said, here we go.
The following are park factors for Wrigley and Shea in 2004. Numbers greater than 1000 indicate a hitter's park; numbers less than 1000 indicate a pitcher's park.
R H 2B 3B HR BB
Wrigley Field 2004 1123 1031 1001 913 1329 987
Shea Stadium 2004 974 1033 976 467 804 978
Based on those factors and 301 at-bats, here are Alou's home stats from last year along with his predicted stats from last year were he to have played those games at Shea:
R H 2B 3B HR BB
Alou at Wrigley 72 102 20 3 29 37
Alou at Shea 62 102 20 2 18 37
And here is Alou's final line for 2004 along with his predicted final line from Shea 2004 (601 AB):
R H 2B 3B HR BB AVG OBP SLG
Alou 2004 (Actual) 106 176 36 3 39 68 .293 .361 .557
Alou 2004 (Predicted) 96 176 36 2 28 68 .293 .361 .500
Not too bad, really. Though I make no claims as to its accuracy, I would imagine that this projection would correlate somewhat well with Alou's actual production.
December 07, 2004
Delgado
Carlos Delgado and Richie Sexson are the two big names being thrown around the kickball field when it's time to choose a first-baseman for 2005. If I'm the Mets, I want Delgado, not Sexson. Sexson is a nice player, but I'm not really interested in him.
I've read two main baseball-related knocks against Delgado as his name has flown around. The first is his age. Delgado is 32, Sexson will be 30 in a few weeks. So Delgado is 2+ years older, which is not as big a disparity as some would have you believe.
The second knock are his home/road splits. I wouldn't pay too much attention to those, and here is an example of why. Here are two players:
AVG OBP SLG
Player A Home .319 .450 .687
Player A Away .256 .388 .529
Player A Overall .280 .408 .607
Player B Home .299 .419 .614
Player B Away .269 .388 .508
Player B Overall .284 .403 .561
Player A has a more pronounced home/road split, and slugs about 45 points more. Their AVG and OBP numbers are almost identical. Player A is Jim Thome, representing his last three seasons in Cleveland (2000-2002). Player B is Delgado, representing his last three seasons in Toronto (2002-2004). Thome was also 32 when he left as a free agent and signed a 6 years/$85 million deal with the Phillies. Thome has put up seasons of .266/.385/.573 and .274/.396/.581 for the Phillies. This season, playing half his games in a hitter's park, Thome posted an OPS that was 123 points higher on the road!
The Mets won't have to go anywhere near 6 years/$85 million for Delgado. I think 3 years/$33 million would do it, and I think he would make a transition similar to that of Thome, but maybe a dozen fewer homeruns, higher average, similar walks, more HBP.
November 03, 2004
Mets To Target Beltran?
In an interview with Mets.com, Mike Cameron indicated that he informed the Mets of his willingness to move to right field to accomodate Carlos Beltran, should the Mets be inclined to pursue him.
"I have a lot of pride in what I do. And I still pride myself as one of the best in the business. But if it's going to help the team to improve that much, I'll move to right field. I have a choice. I won't move to left and play left field in Shea Stadium. I'll go and win a Gold Glove in right field if I have to. It won't make a difference.A selfless act on Cameron's part, to be sure. I don't know if it will make a difference, but at least it's out of the way.
To be able to play center field is my dream and I worked very hard every day at it. But if it helps the New York Mets in 2005 to get Carlos Beltran, there's no question about it, I will move. If it makes the team better, go ahead and try to get Beltran. I'm all for it. I'm all for getting Carlos Beltran here. If he can make things better, we have to find out if he's interested in coming here. They came down for that meeting and I put it all out on the table, laid it out there."
November 02, 2004
Leyland, Bobby V Out
Mets.com reports that Jim Leyland and Bobby Valentine are both officially out of the managerial hunt. Leyland and Mets GM Omar Minaya came to a mutual understanding that this was not the right time for a union. Bobby V. indicated to Minaya via e-mail that his current team, the Chiba Lotte Marines of Japan will not grant the Mets permission to speak with him.
This whole thing should play out within the week, with Willie Randolph or Rudy Jaramillo likely becoming the Mets next manager, barring a late run at Jim Tracy, who became a free agent yesterday.
October 29, 2004
Mets Want Manny or Sammy
According to Newsday, the Mets are having internal discussions about acquiring either World Series MVP Manny Ramirez or fading superstar Sammy Sosa. Both would cost around $20 million per year, with Manny having four years left and Sammy, after a trade, having two guaranteed years plus a buyout. This is apparently an example of new GM Omar Minaya "thinking outside the box".
This has to be a joke. If the Mets are willing to pay upwards of $20 million per season for a player, why would they settle for Sammy Sosa? Manny will be 33 next May, and is still one of the best players in the game, but is useless in the field (save that throw home in Game 3 of the Series). Why would they even comprehend spending that kind of money on a player with known deficiencies when they could have this guy? He's not perfect: his average could be higher, and I hear he ties his shoes funny.
Here's another bit of bad news/good news from the article:
In yet another example of outside-the-box thinking, the Mets are for the first time willing to entertain offers for prized young shortstop Jose Reyes. There has been speculation regarding a Reyes-for-Alfonso Soriano deal, but the Mets won't consider that because Soriano will make $8 million in arbitration.Here's my own attempt at outside the box thinking: why don't the Mets hold on to the players that actually don't suck and work at getting rid of those that do, big time. Is Sammy Sosa really worth taking back even if it means unloading Cliff Floyd?
Talk amongst yourselves. I need some aspirin.
October 28, 2004
Wally Out. Willie In?
According to ESPN.com, Wally Backman has declined to interview for the Mets managerial opening after initially agreeing to. He is rumored to be a frontrunner for the Diamondbacks position, along with ex-Mariners' skipper Bob Melvin. And on it goes...
October 26, 2004
Backman Interview Official
As mentioned first by Matt in the comments, the New York Times is reporting that Wally Backman will indeed interview sometime within the next week. The Times mentions the knocks against Backman:
There are different concerns about Backman, known for his spunk and spirit as a player and manager. This year, Backman was ejected six times and suspended 10 days for bumping an umpire. Last year, the Chicago White Sox voted Backman their Class AA manager of the year, but they fired him for reportedly rooting against the major league team so Manager Jerry Manuel would be dismissed.Fire and heart are important qualities in a manager, particularly in this city. That last one is troubling, though the validity of the claim is certainly open to debate.
Other Articles:
Mets.com
Newsday
In other news, ESPN.com is reporting that the Phillies will request permission from the Cardinals to interview Jim Leyland for their vacant managerial position. Leyland is rumored to be on the Mets short (but growing) list of candidates, so it remains to be seen if the Mets will ask for permission as well, once the World Series is over.
Stay tuned.
Backman to Interview
According to the Daily News, two new candidates have emerged as possible suitors for the Mets' vacant managerial position: Jim Leyland and one Walter Wayne Backman (aka Wally).
It appears that both would be longshots, however.
October 24, 2004
Jim Riggleman?
In case you haven't heard, Mets GM Omar Minaya announced that Dodgers' Bench Coach Jim Riggleman will interview for the Mets' vacant managerial position this coming Wednesday. Jim Rigglewho, you ask?
Riggleman managed for parts of three seasons with the Padres and five seasons with the Cubs in the 90's. How did he do? Well, his teams, for the most part, were not very good. His managerial record is 486-598, or 112 games under .500.
Unforunately, our methods for evaluating managers are far less sophisticated and ubiquitous as those we use to evaluate players. Bill James, in The Bill James Guide To Baseball Managers, notes:
People like to talk about baseball managers, about Tony LaRussa and Bobby Cox and Joe Torre. The talk focuses almost entirely on who is a good manager and who is a lousy manager. The average fan has a one-dimensional image of a manager: He's good, or he's bad. If he's real good, he's a genius. If he's real bad, he's an idiot.Some believe that comparing a team's Pythagorean record to its actual record is a good measure of a manager's effectiveness. The thinking is that a good manager will be able to "get more" out of his players than they would otherwise be able to produce under an average or poor manager. For better or worse, here are how Riggleman's teams fared in this regard.
When the discussion turns to why a manger is good or why he is bad, you realize how little solid information is being used. On a talk show, 97% of all explanations as to why the local manager is an idiot will begin with the words "Well, one time he..."
JIM RIGGLEMAN'S MANAGING CAREER
RS RA W-L PW-L Diff
1992 Padres 35 40 4-8 5-7 -1
1993 Padres 679 772 61-101 72-90 -11
1994 Padres 479 531 47-70 53-64 -6
1995 Cubs 693 671 73-71 74-70 -1
1996 Cubs 772 771 76-86 81-81 -5
1997 Cubs 687 759 68-94 74-88 -6
1998 Cubs 831 792 90-73 85-78 +5
1999 Cubs 747 920 67-95 66-96 +1
For those who don't know, Pythagorean winning percentage is calculated thusly:
October 05, 2004
Slammin' Sammy at Shea
With rumors a'flyin', two sources today indicate that Sammy Sosa most likely will not be coming to the Mets via a trade this offseason. The Post and Newsday both consider this move a longshot, as Mark Hale of the Post explains:
Why? Sosa is nearly 36 years old, slumped to .253 with 35 homers and 80 RBIs this year and is due approximately $35 million over the next two seasons (if Sosa gets traded, his 2006 option automatically gets picked up).So, $35 million for the next two years of Sammy Sosa. He will be 36 and 37 in those years, but what if the Cubbies took back Cliff Floyd and his hobbily legs and $13 million over the next two years? That makes Sammy's contract a net $22 million over two years. What if Omar Minaya could also convince them that a crafy lefty setup man like Mike Stanton is exactly what they need to get back to the playoffs? That would be another $4 million off the books. Just throwing it out there. Thoughts?
[...]
Also, Sosa may be wearing out his welcome in Chicago. On Sunday, he left Wrigley Field before the Cubs even played their final game of the year, and yesterday he lashed out at his manager, saying, "I'm tired of being blamed by Dusty Baker for all the failures of this club."
October 04, 2004
The Rumor Mill
Jeremy Heit mentioned it the other day, but Peter Gammons finally put it in print today:
The Mets won't have fun, fun, fun until Daddy takes the Lear Jet away. Omar Minaya is a very good evaluator, but Junior Wilpon made trades and blamed Jim Duquette. Between Junior and their New York PR guy, the Mets provide us all with a ton of laughs. Right now I'd bet on Jose Reyes going to Texas for Alfonso Soriano, to play right, with Omar-favorite Orlando Cabrera signing with them for $32 million and four years.I'm not sure which suggestion is the most absurd:
a) Trading Jose Reyes for Alfonso Soriano
b) Having Soriano play right field
c) Paying Orlando Cabrera $8 million a year for four years
Cabrera has a .725 career OPS and a .316 career OBP. He'll be 30 in a month. I sincerely hope Gammons is joking.
September 13, 2004
Howe Done
According to Adam Rubin, the Mets have already made a decision regarding Art Howe's role with the team beyond this season -- none. Lou Piniella is the top choice to replace Howe, but remains a longshot at best because of the perceived demands by Tampa Bay to let Sweet Lou out of his contract.
Tony LaRussa's contract in St. Louis expires after this season, and you can file the likelihood of him coming to the Mets under "None and None".
Art Stapleton of the Bergen Record gives us another example of Tom Glavine, wonderful teammate:
After the game, Glavine overlooked his mediocrity and basically placed blame elsewhere, telling reporters: "I thought I pitched actually pretty well, and it should've been better than the line score was."Glavine, whose 3.39 ERA is good for 11th in the NL, should thank his stars (and his defense) his ERA is that low. His DIPS ERA (dERA, or his ERA based on defense-independent pitching statistics K, BB, and HR) is 4.04, 19% worse than his real ERA. His 1.19 DIPS% is 11th worst in the National League.
It's interesting to note that three highly-touted free-agents-to-be are among the NL leaders (aka not good) in DIPS%: Odalis Perez is 2nd in the league with a 1.32 DIPS%, or 32% worse than his real ERA; Russ Ortiz is 8th in the league with a 1.21 DIPS%; and Carl Pavano is 9th with a 1.20 DIPS%.
Our very own Al Leiter is pacing the senior circuit with an unfathomable 1.54 DIPS%, or 54% worse than his real ERA. Steve Trachsel is 12th with a 1.17 DIPS%. Kris Benson is actually 43rd out of 44 qualifying pitchers in the NL with a 0.88 DIPS%, or 12% BETTER than his actual ERA.
September 07, 2004
Bowa Constrictor
Adam Rubin has an article in the Daily News today about the Mets considering bringing beleaguered Phillies' manager Larry Bowa on board as Art Howe's bench coach in 2005. With current bench coach Don Baylor a likely managerial target of the Houston Astros, the Mets would have a vacancy to fill.
Bowa's rage is certainly a stark contrast to Howe's do-nothingness, and would possibly set up Bowa to inherit the reins if/when Howe's tenure is completed. Check out the rest of the article. In tandem, it's difficult to say how their personalities would mesh. Their opposites could cause an extremely volatile situation in the Mets clubhouse, or their fire/ice differences could complement each other. More likely the former, I say.
Also, as kaley points out, Peter Gammons has a column up regarding the 2004 free agent class. He also notes the following:
And while the Scott Kazmir deal has brought praise to Tampa Bay, Mets pitching coach Rick Peterson is convinced that the alterations Victor Zambrano is making to his delivery will make him a big winner next season. As for Kris Benson, his contract expectations will require that he play out the market before re-signing with the Mets. Which is likely.Despite what others are saying, I don't think this is the worst thing to happen. That would be signing Benson to a 3-4 year deal and having him suck it up, as he has since being acquired from the Pirates at the deadline. I'd rather have Carl Pavano, Matt Clement, Pedro Martinez, etc., than overpay Benson.
Steve Keane on the state of the Mets.
Jeremy Heit on why he doesn't trust the Mets.
August 05, 2004
Magglio A Met?
According to today's New York Post, Jim Duquette said on WFAN Tuesday that the Mets top offseason priority would be to add a power bat. "We've got to find another bat, there's no question. It's got to be a middle-of-the-lineup bat." When asked about Chicago White Sox outfielder and free agent-to-be Magglio Ordonez, The Duke said:
"That's a good name. I like that name. We'll be watching him. I wish he were healthy for the rest of the year. But he is a proven hitter. He would look nice."The Mets should seriously consider resigning Richard Hidalgo when the season ends and, unless Cliff Floyd gets his wish and is traded to an AL club where he could DH, there won't be much room for a run-producing outfielder. The Mets have a big hole, both offensively and defensively, at first base, and they might do well to court a power bat there such as Richie Sexson.
Wholesale changes to the left-handed portion of the Mets bullpen should be a big priority this offseason, but no mention was made to that end by Duquette.
July 30, 2004
Kris Benson A Done Deal?
Sources indicate that the Mets and Pirates worked into the night Thursday trying to hammer out a deal that would bring Kris Benson to our beloved Mets. Recently rumored to be headed to Minnesota, those talks apparently stalled because the Twins refused to include AAA outfield stud Jason Kubel (currently hitting .346/.397/.523 for Rochester of the International League).
The deal with the Mets would likely include Jack-of-all-trades Ty Wigginton and minor league pitcher Matt Peterson. The Mets have apparently received assurances that Benson would sign an extension with them rather than going to free agency in the fall, something that surely makes the deal more attractive.
Kazmir On The Way Out?
Rumors still abound regarding prized pitching prospect Scott Kazmir being dealt to Tampa Bay for the talented but erratic Victor Zambrano. If the Mets wouldn't trade him for Alfonso Soriano, why they would ship him out for Zambrano is unknown.
If that wasn't disturbing enough, the Newark Star Ledger reports that Mets superscout Al Goldis was in Houston this week with an eye on struggling Astros pitcher Tim Redding. The article mentions Kazmir as the return party in such a deal, which makes me a little queazy. It's probably all hogwash, but the article indicates that the Mets have recently soured on Kazmir's durability and attitude. Apparently his 1.73 ERA and 29/9 K/BB ratio in 27 AA innings isn't enough to keep him out of the Mets doghouse.
Cliff Floyd On The Block?
According to an article in the Chicago Daily Herald, the White Sox, Pirates, and Mets are involved in three-way trade negotiations, and Cliff Floyd's name has been mentioned as heading to the Sox. The article indicates that the Mets would send Ty Wigginton and Matt Peterson to the Pirates for Kris Benson, with Floyd going to the Sox and a minor leaguer, Ryan Sweeney, going from Chicago to Pittsburgh.
Recent rumors have indicated that the Pirates have asked the Mets for Wigginton and Peterson, so why the Mets would throw Floyd in for nothing is beyond me. He may be crippled and has recently voiced his desire to retire from the sport sooner rather than later, but we don't have anybody better to stick out in left field (Eric Valent's performance on Thursday notwithstanding). It would be a bit of a salary dump, but I would expect the Mets to get a decent prospect package in exchange for Floyd's bat.
Thoughts?
March 24, 2004
Blue Jay Prospects Available
According to The Toronto Star, the Mets have been inquiring about one or more of the Blue Jays outfield prospects. As Jon Heyman mentioned in his article on Sunday, one of those players is Jayson Werth, a former 1st round pick of the Orioles in 1997.
Werth is not a big power guy, sporting a career minor league SLG of .420 and an AVG of .265. However, his plate discipline is top-notch, drawing 357 walks in 2411 ABs. He's also something of a human wind tunnel, striking out 567 times in those at-bats.
The other player The Star mentions is outfield stud and prize prospect Alexis Rios. Baseball America ranks him as the 6th best prospect in baseball, saying:
"His power explosion in the Puerto Rican League was his latest step in becoming the next Dave Winfield."The Blue Jays may be looking to trade Rios because he's too much like Vernon Wells: good power, poor plate discipline. Last time I checked, however, #6 prospects don't come cheaply.
As usual, I would never trade Scott Kazmir or David Wright. Outside of that, I'd be open to offers. Aaron Heilman and Mike Jacobs maybe? Victor Diaz? Rios would be the outfield prospect the Mets have lacked. He could step right in and play right field in 2004 if they wanted, or eased into the role by 2005.
If the cost isn't too prohibitive, the Mets should definitely make this deal.
January 12, 2004
Easy Come, Easy Go
So the Mets didn't bag free agent stud Vladimir Guerrero. So the Mets still have a huge gaping hole in right field. Things could be a lot worse. Disappointment abounds, from Mets fans to players to the entire Mets organization. Even though we were braced from the outset that this was a longshot at best, it's hard not to get your hopes up.
The Mets have done a lot right this offseason. With a few key moves and zero A-List additions, the Mets have gone a long way to help alleviate the pain inflicted by the last two seasons of "baseball" in Queens.
For the latter half of the Steve Phillips era, the Mets made a number of "win now" moves in an effort to get the most out of a core group of players who were getting older and less competent every season. The Mets best season under the Phillips regime was 1999. Sure, they went to the 2000 World Series, but the 1999 team was the best one they sent out there in the past decade.
Once the Mets lost to the Braves in the NLCS and John Olerud took a reasonable deal to go home to Seattle, the hourglass had been flipped and time began ticking away on this ballclub.
Robin Ventura was coming off a career season, and the Mets management struggled to find a suitable replacement for Olerud, eventually settling for Todd Zeile, who had started a grand total of 62 games at first base to that point. He had a respectable first season with the Mets, but the team was the recipient of some good fortune en route to the franchise's first World Series appearance in 15 seasons. They dodged a bullet by not having to face their nemesis, the Braves, in the NL playoffs.
We all know too well where the story goes from here. Despite playing in back-to-back LCS, the Mets were a team and an organization on the decline. The Mets star players (Mike Piazza, Al Leiter, etc.) were already on the wrong side of thirty, with further regression of performance to be expected. Nevertheless, the Mets two-headed ownership demon (Nelson Doubleday and current owner Fred Wilpon) approved a series of moves that, at least in retrospect, ultimately led to the decimation of the franchise, leaving the team and its many many fans scratching their collective heads.
Aside from a handful of leftovers (Piazza, Leiter, John Franco), there remains little at Shea to remind us of those years of near-greatness. Mets general manager Jim Duquette is slowly but steadily rebuilding the foundation of this franchise. The Mets farm system, once completely bereft of talent, is now blossoming, with a number of young arms and quality position players making their way up the organizational ladder, projected to roam the fields of Shea within the next few seasons.
Additionally, management has thrown away the ideas that led to the recent decline, electing to focus on the elements that brought championships to Queens in 1969 and 1986. Pitching and defense win games, as they say. At the very least, they help to put your offense in the position to win those games.
So the Mets didn't sign Vlad Guerrero. I think they played it as well as they could have, though. They waited around long enough so that they actually had a fighting chance to sign the slugger on their own terms. There was a soft market for Guerrero, and the Mets almost landed him. Some may scoff at the Mets offer, calling $30 million guaranteed over three years a lowball pitch. The fact is, the Mets could not secure insurance on Guerrero's back and, based on his medical records and the advice of the Mets physicians, guaranteeing any more money than that would be foolhardy.
I would have been thrilled if Vlad had signed for three guaranteed years, with the potential for $70 million over five seasons if he could, *gasp*, stay healthy enough to clock in for 400 plate appearances per season. I would have been less thrilled if the Mets had assumed all of the risk (as teams seem to be expected to do) and given Guerrero five guaranteed years at $14 million per (as the Angels have apparently done). Let him go, he probably had no intention of playing in New York anyway.
Maybe next year the Mets can convince Carlos Beltran to play right field. Maybe they can lure Magglio Ordonez to the Big Apple. Who knows. I do know that the Mets will be better this year than they were last year, and will be better next year than they are this year. I also know that I like the direction things are going in, I like the plan Jim Duquette has put together and stuck to, and I like the chances that the Mets will be playing meaningful games by 2005.
I have no choice. I'm a Mets fan, and I take what I'm given.
January 09, 2004
Vlad Update & Mets Mini Camp
According to ESPN.com's Buster Olney, the Orioles are considering making a new offer to Pudge Rodriguez, with the plan being for he and Javy Lopez to both split time between catcher and DH. Such an offer may indicate that the O's will take a pass on Vladimir Guerrero, electing to spend their money on an outfielder from the 2004 free agent class, such as Carlos Beltran or Magglio Ordonez.
If you didn't already know, the Mets have been conducting their January Mini Camp in St. Lucie, Florida. NYFanSites.com has been reporting from Florida all week with news and photos of the Mets in action. Check out their daily reports from this week if you haven't already.
Monday: Mini Camp Opens
Tuesday: Braden Looper
Wednesday: Peterson Tinkers With Roberts & Wheeler
Thursday: Davidson Puts On A Show
Friday: Lastings Impression
Dream A Little Dream
According to several sources, the Mets have made an offer to free-agent outfielder Vladimir Guerrero. Based on reports, the offer appears to be worth $30 million over three years, with incentives based on plate appearances that could bring the value closer to $40 million, or approximately the same $13 million annually that the Baltimore Orioles have offered. There is also speculation that the offer contains vesting options for a fourth and fifth season, similarly based on plate appearances.
If all incentives were met (which probably only requires that Guerrero not spend an inordinate amount of time on the disabled list), the total value of the contract would likely be between $65-$70 million over five years, which is almost identical to the terms of Baltimore's offer.
For all intents and purposes, acquiring Vladimir Guerrero amounts to little more than a pipe dream for the Mets (and me). Be that as it may, a pipe dream still requires that there be at least a modicum of hope that something can happen. The fact that Guerrero has not signed yet and that Spring Training is but a month away means that there is something keeping him from signing with Baltimore.
The player's union is no doubt encouraging (read: demanding) Guerrero's agents to take the largest guaranteed offer, which doesn't bode well for the Mets' chances. Regardless, I am, by nature, a hopeless optimist. An answer was originally expected from Guerrero within the next couple of days, but some think it could drag into next week, if not longer. We'll just have to wait and see how it plays out.
If you missed any of this week's blogs, please check them out.
Monday: A Closer Look
Tuesday: Link-A-Dink
Wednesday: Things Are Not As Vlad As They Seem
January 07, 2004
Things Are Not As Vlad As They Seem
You never know. I almost shat myself when I saw this at ESPN.com last night:
Report: Mets interested in signing Guerrero
The likelihood of the Mets signing Vladimir Guerrero is remote at best. He has an offer on the table from Baltimore for 5 years, $65 million, that has seemingly been out there since he became a free agent. The Dodgers and Marlins are allegedly interested, though my guess is that any deal with Florida would be contingent on a new stadium deal (a la the Mike Lowell deal).
We've known all long that Guerrero desires a new home with a significant Dominican population. Baltimore does not fit that bill. Florida does, but there are contract issues there that I am skeptical about. New York can definitely cash in here, as it sports a large Dominican contingency, as well as a general wealth of spanish-speaking individuals.
Guerrero's fear of the big stage spotlight appears to have been overblown, as his agent has testified to the contrary.
The hangup, as usual, is the money and contract length. Mets GM Jim Duquette has gone on record as saying that his organization has put a three-year cap on free agent contracts. This could actually work to Guerrero's advantage. Lets say the Mets ink him to a three-year deal worth $15-$16 annually, plus a couple of mutual options that could bring it up to five-years, $80 million. Guerrero could then go out there for the next three seasons and continue to tear apart National League pitching (he sports a career 978 OPS). After his three seasons, he'll still only be 30 years old. If the market opens up a bit for him, he will have proven that:
a) he can play in the big city
b) his back is fine
c) he's one of the five best players in baseball
If he wants out of the contract at that point, the Yankees could then sign him for four-or-five years at $16-$18 million per. If he can't get that kind of deal, he can stay with the Mets for another year or two at $16 million, and continue to test the waters after each subsequent season.
Plus, with the Mets he would actually have a chance to compete for something other than third place. Granted, the Mets are not in position to win anything in 2004 (though Guerrero could be enough to push them from a .500 team to a Marlins-esque underdog). However, they stand a very good chance of competing in 2005 and 2006, particularly with Scott Kazmir and David Wright making their way to big Shea.
If you want Vlad, you can now make your voice heard. Head on over to SignVlad.com, where you can sign an online petition or fill out a mail-in petition to send Mets owner Fred Wilpon and beseech him to sign Guerrero.
Believe it or not, there are two new Mets blogs to check out on the sidebar. The first is East Coast Agony, a two-headed blog monster featuring two long-suffering baseball fans: Red Sox fan Big K and Mets fan Metropolitan Mike.
The second is The Baseball Blog of Oz, which discusses current Mets events, as well as other local professional sports.
Stop by both and say hi.
SaberMets passed the 10,000 visitor mark yesterday, which is an honor to me and a testament to you, the readers. Given the large number of return visitors, I realize that many of you have eschewed better judgment by continuing to read the nonsensical digressions of an obsessed baseball fan, and for that I thank you.
Things Are Not As Vlad As They Seem
Back in October, I wrote none too favorably about Mike Cameron. With the Mets having signed Cameron on Saturday to a three-year, $19.5 million deal (backloaded, with an option for a fourth year at $6.5 million), I decided to revisit my analysis of him.
The mistake I made a couple of months ago was that I only considered Cameron's offensive contributions, which are below average for an outfielder. In particular, Cameron's strikeout rate is as high as Grant Roberts. The flaw in my evaluation of Cameron was that I neglected to consider his defensive contributions to a game, which are considerable.
There are a number of metrics that sabermetricians use to evaluate defense: Many are useful, none are perfect. ESPN.com uses Range Factor (RF) and Zone Rating (ZR). RF is the total numbers of outs that a player contributes (putouts plus assists) per nine innings. ZR is the percentage of balls that a player gets to within his defensive zone, as defined by Stats, Inc.
A third stat that I like to use is Win Shares. Win Shares is a system developed by Bill James who, as it turns out, developed many of the statistics that I and other sabermetrically-inclined individuals use on a daily basis. For a great review and synopsis of Win Shares, check out this article by Rob Neyer. The gist of Win Shares is that, by using James' extremely complex methodology, one can divide a team's actual wins into thirds. So the 2003 Mets, who won 66 games, had a total of 198 win shares. The cumulative total of offensive and defensive contributions by all players on the 2003 Mets will add up to these 198 "thirds" of wins.
Last season, Mets outfielders posted the following win shares:
Player 2003 Defensive Win Shares
Roger Cedeno 1.79
Jeff Duncan 1.57
Timo Perez 1.47
Cliff Floyd 1.26
Raul Gonzalez 1.22
Tsuyoshi Shinjo 1.19
Joe McEwing 0.20
Prentice Redman 0.12
Matt Watson 0.05
Tony Clark & nbsp; 0.01
----
Total 8.88
Mike Cameron had 7.73 win shares in 2003 ... by himself! That's roughly one fewer win share than the entire Mets revolving door outfield. He had more defensive win shares than any outfielder in baseball. Torii Hunter? 6.14 win shares. Carlos Beltran? 6.50 win shares. Andruw Jones? 6.04. No outfielder contributes as much defensively as Mike Cameron.
Plus, there's reason to believe that he'll be even more valuable to the Mets. Last year, Cameron was flanked by Ichiro and Randy Winn, who both finished in the top ten in the AL in defensive win shares. The Mets ... well, they were the Mets. No offense to Cliff Floyd and whomever will be patrolling right field (Brian Jordan?), but Cameron playing centerfield will be like parking a Ferrari between two Hyundais.
What makes me feel even better about this signing is that Billy Beane wanted him bad. Regarding his unsuccessful pursuit of the gold-glove outfielder, Beane said that Cameron:
"... in terms of value and how much he impacts a defense, is the best player out there. I could show you how many runs Mike saves a year, and what he means to a team. He'd be great for the Mets. That's why I don't want them to get him. With that ballpark, and that [fly-ball] pitching staff, Mike would be perfect."
The Mets put together an offseason plan that focused on making the team more athletic with improved defense up-the-middle. With last week's signing of Kazuo Matsui and this weekend's haul of Mike Cameron, they've done a great job executing that plan while maintaining payroll flexibility and restricting contract lengths to three years or less. Jim Duquette has also done a great job of not mortgaging the future by not sacrificing draft picks for either of his two signings (Cameron was non-tendered and Matsui was a Japanese free agent). The Mets may not be contending for a playoff spot this year, but they will be much improved over last season and will provide plenty of hope for the future of this organization.
November 07, 2003
Mets Prepare To Take Giant Step Forward
I was reading the sports sections today, and among the numerous articles detailing the Mets hiring of two (soon to be three) front office super-scouts (good move) and their interest in free-agent closer Keith Foulke (bad move), I read the following in the New York Post:
In a signal of the new wave of baseball thinking, the Mets are looking to hire a statistical analyst to join their front office.This sounds like the kind of forward-thinking I would expect out of Sabermetrically-savvy teams like Oakland, Boston, and Toronto. But my New York Mets? Pinch me, I think I'm dreaming.
Several teams already employ a stats maven, most notably the Boston Red Sox with the legendary Bill James. The Toronto Blue Jays and, of course, the Oakland A's also utilize statistical-based analysis.
"We've gone through an extensive search process," Mets GM Jim Duquette said. "Our plan is to have a statistical analyst to come on and be a resource or a tool in our evaluating process."
This same edition of the Post also reports that the Mets might be interested in acquiring Preston Wilson from Colorado. Why? Who the hell knows. Columnist Mark Hale suggests that the move "would make tremendous practical sense for the Mets, for a number of reasons". Firstly, it would allow the Mets to piss away large sums of money on a mediocre ballplayer (SEE: Mo Vaughn). Secondly, it would rid the Mets of their promising young players:
"...the Rockies would likely want several young position players (such as Victor Diaz or Ty Wigginton), and perhaps a young arm or two (think Grant Roberts or even Aaron Heilman)."And we get to pick up the $20 mill left on his contract over the next two years? I believe it's safe to assume that Mark Hale will not be the third super-scout, nor will he be the Mets new statistical analyst. Peep these stats:
260/316/479 with 25bb/78k and 34 xbh (15hr) in 292ab
Yessir, those are Mr. Wilson's road stats from 2003. The only way the Mets make this deal is if Colorado takes all of Roger Cedeno's contract ($10 mill over two years), and they pick up $5 mill of Wilson's contract. This is a guy who didn't even put up an 800 OPS on the road last year, and we're going to give up prospects AND pay off his albatross contract? Fafafafafa.
November 06, 2003
Mets In Print
The Mets made it official yesterday, formally naming Rick Peterson their new pitching coach/savior. He will be given carte blanche to do as he pleases with the Mets entire organizational approach to pitching. They also made several other coaching changes, "promoting" Matt Galante to assistant bench coach and bringing up AAA manager Bobby Floyd to be third base coach for the big club.
A few interesting notes from today's papers:
Jorge Arangure Jr. of the Bergen Record says: "[John] Franco pitched well after his return, compiling a 2.62 ERA in 34.1 innings."
John Franco gave little indication that he deserves a roster spot on any big league team. I give Johnny a ton of credit for coming back from T.J. surgery at his age, and he's really been a soldier for this team, weathering the "Worst Team Money Can Buy" clubs, as well as losing his job outright as Mets closer to Armando Benitez. However, for a team that is rebuilding and trying to get a good look at as many young ballplayers as possible, I just don't see Franco as a valuable asset to this club. We already have overpaid veteran middle-relievers (SEE: David Weathers, Mike Stanton). While Franco likely won't command much in salary ($1 mill tops), I feel that the roster spot could be better utilized by the likes of Tyler Yates and Orber Moreno.
Apparently, both the Mets and Yankees are interested in light-hitting, light-fielding Todd Walker. After arguing with my friend Mike, a Yankee fan, over who DIDN'T want Walker more, I tried my best to digest this news. Walker's agent Alan Meersand apparently acknowledges his client's defensive shortcomings, as quoted in today's Bergen Record:
"Don't you think his offense more than makes up for the fact he makes a few errors?"
Walker was on-par defensively with human wind-tunnel Alfonso Soriano, with very similar fielding percentages and range factors. I only make this comparison because Soriano is largely regarded as a terrible fielder, which he, in fact, is. Walker's agent went to far as to say that his client would be looking for a three-or-four-year deal as well as a raise over his 2003 salary of $3.45 mill. I'd say he was insane, except that Im sure at least one team would be willing to cough up that much. Plus, the other day I actually saw someone describe Walker as a "raker". I'm unfamiliar with Walker's landscaping prowess, but I am very familiar with his exploits at the plate. Take a look at these two lines:
283/333/428 with 48bb/54k and 55 xbh (13hr) in 587ab plus 1/2 sb (50%)
260/344/421 with 48bb/34k and 34 xbh (15hr) in 404ab plus 28/40 sb (70%)
The top line is Mr. Walker. The bottom line is Eric Young, though I used only his stats with Milwaukee last season (I left out his SanFran stats). Eric Young will be lucky to get a one-year deal worth $2 mill. Granted, he's 36 and Walker is only 30. I wouldn't sign either of them for the years OR money that Walker is looking for, but I'd sooner sign Young for one-year at $2 mill than Walker at anything near his asking price.
The headline in today's New York Post: METS TARGET CLOSER KOCH
I'm not a big fan of spending large sums of any commodity (money, prospects, prosthetic limbs etc.) on a "proven closer". However, it may make sense (as it always does) to borrow a page from Billy Beane's book. As I originally suggested for David Weathers, making someone the Mets dedicated closer for half or all of next season could pay big dividends. Just as Billy Beane has done with Jason Isringhausen and Billy Koch, and this year with Keith Foulke, one great year out of a closer can net either:
1) Prospects in a trade at the deadline
2) Draft pick compensation when the closer signs with another team
Foulke hasn't brought either of these things...yet. He may bring a high draft pick, or may even resign with the A's. Billy Koch brought Keith Foulke, and Izzy brought a couple of good draft picks. Koch has one year left on his contract at, gulp, $6.375 mill. He had a lousy year last season:
5.77 era, 1.64 whip, 53 ip, 7.13 k/9, 1.50 k/bb, 1.6 hr/9
The hr/9 is deplorable, but the k/9 rate is still good. He lost his closer job last year, and for good reason. However, he had a great year in 2002 with the A's under the guidance of Rick Peterson, and there's no reason to think he can't put up good numbers next year at Shea. The White Sox have understandably soured on him, and would probably give him up for nothing. I bet they could even be conned into taking Stormy Weathers' $3.6 mill off of our hands.
Last but certainly not least, Tom Glavine is trying to woo Kevin Millwood to the Mets. That Millwood is still considered a front-of-the-rotation starter is beyond me. Millwood is a #3 starter, and may even be a #2 on a crappy staff like the Mets'. To pay him #1 starter money ($60 mill over five years) would be almost as foolish as paying a 37-year-old $45 million over four years. Thanks, but no thanks Tommy. Stop doing us favors and just pitch.
October 25, 2003
Peterson, Minaya Close
A number of local papers today reported that the Oakland A's have finally granted unconditional permission to the Mets to speak with pitching coach/God Rick Peterson. Insiders expect that a deal could be consummated within days and an announcement can be expected shortly after the World Series. Peterson is a native of New Brunswick, New Jersey, and currently lives in Wall, NJ with his wife and three sons. (mets.com)
Insiders (the same ones?) also say that Omar Minaya is close to accepting an executive scouting position with the Mets similar to that of Gene "Stick" Michael with the Yankees. One report says that the Mets might be willing to offer Minaya a higher salary to compensate for slightly lesser authority. An announcement on this is expected next week as well, possibly in tandem with the Peterson hiring. Minaya grew up in Queens and currently lives in the great state of NJ.
October 17, 2003
What Would It Take
The San Francisco Chronicle reports today that the Mets and A's are discussing possible compensation for Rick Peterson. According to the article, the Mets have NOT yet received permission to negotiate with Peterson, but have had talks of the "informal" variety. The A's appear adament about shipping Terrence Long out of town, and the article suggests that the Mets would part with a low-level prospect for Long and Peterson. Long currently has about $5 mill remaining on a four-year, $11.6 million deal, and is a marginal major leaguer at best. Billy Beane must have been drinking some of Mr. Wilpon's Kool-Aid when he signed Long to that deal.
Long's only half-decent offensive season came in 2000 when he posted a 788 OPS with 56 XBH. It's been a precipitous drop-off since then. To borrow from Avkash's statistical prose (which I am rather fond of):
2000 age 24 288/336/452 with 43/77 and 56xbh (18) in 584ab
2001 age 25 283/335/412 with 52/103 and 53 xbh (12) in 629ab
2002 age 26 240/298/390 with 48/96 and 52 xbh (16) in 587ab
2003 age 27 245/293/385 with 31/67 and 38 xbh (14) in 486ab
While he's only 27 and is just hitting his prime, he shows no indication that he's about to turn into a productive hitter anytime soon. He has apparently clashed with A's manager Ken Macha (according to T.Long himself, 20 of the A's 25 players don't want to play for Macha either), though his numbers under Art Howe weren't exactly world-beating (they were admittedly several steps up from his current production). He looks to me like an expensive version of Timo Perez, though Timo's three-year splits against righties are actually better than Long's.
Barry Zito gives Rick Peterson a lot of the credit for helping him, as well as Jason Isringhausen, Billy Koch, and Keith Foulke. I'm not a proponent of burning large piles of money, but if Peterson is all he's cracked up to be, throwing a few bucks away on T-Long would be one of the best off-season moves the Mets can make.
October 16, 2003
The Rumor Mill
Sorry for the lack of recent blogs (thanks for reminding me every day, Mike). I was on vacation last week in California, and have been busy this week watching the BoSox cowboy up.
The Star Ledger reported three bits of information the other day.
1) The Mets will not seek permission from The Boss to interview Brian Cashman for their vacant GM position.
2) The Mets are still interviewing candidates for a top executive position (read: not necessarily GM). The Ledge indicates that The Duke will likely be named full-time GM.
3) The Mets have requested and have been granted permission by the A's to speak with pitching guru Rick Peterson.
The Mets would have to wait until after the Yankees postseason is over before talking to Cashman anyway, so this probably isn't very interesting. If the Yankees find a way to lose tonight's game 7, Cashman will almost certainly be gone, and anyone/everyone will be subject to King George's turbulent flights of fancy.
The second bit of info leads one to believe that the Mets may have already chosen their next GM in Jim Duquette. The current interview process may be to surround him with intelligent baseball men. It's still beyond me why P.DePo hasn't been mentioned anywhere outside of the blog community, but that's out of our control.
The third piece of news is probably the most interesting, and certainly the most promising. The Post reported today that the Mets interviewed Rick Peterson yesterday, though it's not believed that an offer was made....yet. Bud Selig doesn't like things like this to be announced in the middle of the postseason, so any big news will likely wait until the conclusion of the World Series.
I hope to have the Mets best pitching staff the past six years had to offer up soon, to go along with the lineup posted last week.
Also, to recap some news from last week, Marco Scutaro (aka Marcos Scutaro) and Matt Watson were claimed by the A's. While neither of these players will likely ever be major contributors at the big league level, both showed to be proficient at the plate in the minors, and are certainly better suited to "playing baseball" than the Mets current roster-fodder Joe McEwing and Timo Perez.
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