SaberMets.com

Please Back Away From The Edge

If you haven't already heard, the Mets made two trades tonight to strengthen their starting rotation and, in the process, weaken their farm system. The trades break down thusly:

Trade #1
Mets acquire RHP Kris Benson and IF Jeff Keppinger (AA) from the Pirates.
Pirates acquire Ty Wigginton and RHP Matt Peterson (AA) from the Mets and 3B Jose Bautista from the Royals.
Royals acquire C Justin Huber (AAA) from the Mets.

Trade #2
Mets acquire RHP Victor Zambrano and RHP Bartolome Fortunato (AAA) from the Devil Rays.
Devil Rays acquire LHP Scott Kazmir (AA) and RHP Jose(lo) Diaz (AA) from the Mets.

Where do we start? When I first heard of the trades on the Mets post-game show, my initial reaction went something like this (parental advisory suggested):

FUCK SHIT SHITTY FUCK FUCKITY FUCKING-A SHITWAD FUCKJOB FUCK SHIT FUCK!!

I would like to personally thank Gary Cohen and Howie Rose of WFAN for talking me down from the ledge. Both big Mets fans, they very calmly and rationally made sense of the chaos. The Mets are a better team today at the Major League level than they were yesterday. They now have a very solid 1-5 starting rotation, probably the best in the NL East now that Florida has traded Brad Penny to the Dodgers (who may eventually trade him to Arizona).

Many believe that the Mets have already worked out a contract extension with Benson. If the Mets didn't have some assurance that they would retain Benson past this year, there is no way they make this trade. They gave up a lot for Benson, no doubt. Matt Peterson is a fine pitcher, but his upside is probably a #2 ML starter (i.e. Kris Benson). Here's what Baseball Prospectus 2004 had to say about him:

Some sculptors say they acquire a block of stone and stare at it until the piece reveals itself. Then it's only a matter of chipping it down. Peter made some positive strides last year, and is starting to look like the good pitcher he can become. He needs to get his change and curve over for strikes consistently. He's got a future if he can swing it.

The italics are mine. Peterson is only 22, and is probably at least another season away from the bigs. He was the centerpiece of this deal, and he was deemed expendable with the impending acquisition of Cuban pitcher Alay Soler (Jim Duquette's words).

Ty Wigginton is a fan favorite, and can play a number of defensive positions adequately (i.e. not embarrass himself). He has some pop in his bat, but his role on the Mets was going to be as a bench player. A fine bench player, no doubt, but a bench player. He doesn't hit enough to be an outfielder, and the Mets have the infield pretty much locked up for a number of years. A useful player, but one that can be easily replaced if you know where to look.

Justin Huber was tough to lose, but you have to take a step back and wonder how great a prospect he really is. Sure, his .400 OBP is great, particularly for a catcher, and his .473 SLG between AA and AAA is nothing to sneeze at. However, by all accounts, his catching abilities are very suspect. Here's what Baseball America has to say:

He has enough bat to hit for average with 20-plus homers annually, but he's mechanical behind the plate and sloppy footwork detracts from his arm, which is average at best. Huber's plate discipline has taken a step forward this year, as he has hit .270/.402/.473 with 13 homers and 44 RBIs in 88 games, mostly in Double-A. He has thrown out just 14 of 72 basestealers (19 percent) in 2004.

If his catching doesn't improve, there may be a firstbaseman's glove in his future, where 20 homerun power isn't that impressive.

If the Mets didn't make this deal and then waited until the offseason to try to sign Benson, there are plenty of indications it might not have gone so well. First off is the draft pick consideration that would be forfeited to Pittsburgh. Aside from that, the Mets have recently taken a half-assed approach to free agency. Furthermore, Benson is an Atlanta-native, and this trade and possible contract extension prevents the Braves from getting their hands on him. Benson is not a #1 starter, but he was the second-best starter on Pittsburgh (behind Oliver Perez), and he certainly has #2 starter stuff. He essentially takes Matt Ginter/Scott Erickson/James Baldwin's spot in the rotation, which has to be considered a colossal upgrade.

As for trade #2, the Mets give up their #1 pitching prospect, and quite possibly the best lefty pitching prospect in all of baseball, Scott Kazmir. As the old saying goes, however, there is no such thing as a pitching prospect. Kazmir is a couple inches shy of six feet tall, and there have been numerous questions raised about his work ethic and durability. Is that all just spin to make it seem like a better deal for the Mets? Maybe.

For those of you crying into your beers about Kazmir and how he was the best Met pitching prospect since Dwight Gooden, get real. Kazmir overpowered single-A hitters, and has been successful thus far in AA, but he is not considered anywhere near the prospect that Paul Wilson was just a handful of years ago. He was the #1 pick in the draft, Kazmir was #15 (though he likely could have gone higher were it not for his perceived bonus demands). Wilson was a can't miss prospect, and he certainly did miss. He had arm problems, and has been inconsistent since at the Major League level.

There is no guarantee with minor league players, and the Mets were apparently content trading "might-be's" for "probably already-are's". Kris Benson and Victor Zambrano are no Kerry Wood and Carlos Zambrano, but they represent two very important things:

1) An immediately huge upgrade to the back end of the rotation
2) Two talented starting pitchers that the Mets can control for several years beyond this one (assuming they get Benson under contract)

Neither of these players help the Mets anemic offense, atrocious bullpen, or porous defense. They help the Mets for the remainder of this season and for seasons to come. Maybe Scott Kazmir will be a #1 starter somewhere in 2006, or a Billy Wagner-like closer (though Tampa GM Chuck LaMar says that Kazmir will be brought up when rosters expand on September 1st). Maybe he'll hurt his arm and never make it to the bigs. Who knows. That's the fun of following prospects, but also the biggest problem.

Benson starts Saturday night in Atlanta against the Braves. As Benson and Zambrano join the roster, Dan Wheeler gets sent down to AAA, Jae Seo and Matt Ginter join the bullpen, and Gerald "Ice" Williams has been recalled to take Wigginton's spot on the bench.

Feel free to bitch away in the comments. You may not be thrilled with Kris Benson now, but keep in mind that she comes along for the ride.

April 03, 2004