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December 12, 2003

Pass The Pepto

With the announcement yesterday that Andy Pettitte had signed with the Astros, you would have thought someone had shot the President. As I listened to ESPN Radio, Yankee fan after Yankee fan called in with over-the-top melodrama such as:

"I feel sick to my stomach."
"This is a dark day for the New York Yankees."
"The Yankees as we know it are over."

I've never seen such remorse over the loss of a number-three starter. I mean, for a guy with a career ERA that approaches 4.00, Yankee fans were reacting as if all of George Steinbrenner's millions blew away and took the Yankees' 26 World Championships along with them. I talked about how overvalued Andy Pettitte is yesterday, and Rob Neyer has written an excellent piece on it as well. He argues, quite convincingly I might add, that the recent addition of Javier Vazquez and the impending addition of Kevin Brown will give the Yankees a much more formidable staff than the one comprised of Roger Clemens and Pettitte.

... if Brown and Vazquez are healthy in 2004, they'll represent a significant upgrade from Clemens and Pettitte, whose impressive won-lost records benefited from the Yankees' potent lineup.

Could a Yankees rotation that includes Brown stack up with the Red Sox's new Schilling-ful squad? You'd better believe it.

The Yankees rotation next season will sport three pitchers who were staff aces last season, plus the best pitcher Cuba had to offer in Jose Contreras. That's four pitchers who are each better than anyone starting for the Mets this season.

* * * * * * * * * *
ESPN.com: Vina, Tigers agree to $6 million deal

Un-be-freaking-lievable. Better them than us, that's what I say. There were rumors over the past few weeks that the Mets were interested in Fernando Vina to play second base at Shea. If Vina is worth $3 million (which he's not), the $6.7 million Kaz Matsui is getting looks like the deal of the century. You've gotta love the enthusiasm of new teammate Dmitri Young:

"I'm excited, to tell you the truth. I played against him in the National League, and he's going to really help us in the leadoff spot because he'll walk, bunt and hit the other way. And his great defense speaks for itself."

I'll bite. Let's break down this statement into it's quantifiable parts...

Great defense

He did win back-to-back gold gloves in 2001 and 2002. However, he wasn't even as good in those seasons as the Tigers' second basemen were in 2003.

                      RF     ZR
Fernando Vina '01    4.84   .849
Fernando Vina '02    4.72   .810
Warren Morris '03    5.55   .839
Ramon Santiago '03   5.04   .736
Shane Halter '03     5.23   .840

RF: Range Factor ((PO + A) * 9 divided by innings)
ZR: Zone rating. The percentage of balls fielded by a player in his typical defensive "zone," as measured by STATS, Inc.

Unless we also consider the triumverate of Warren Morris, Ramon Santiago, and Shane Halter great defensive second-basemen, this one is a bust.

He'll Walk

Taking this to its logical extreme, it's difficult to argue its truthfulness. He does indeed walk. But does he walk a lot? Hardly. His career high was 54 walks in 1998 with Milwaukee. Since then, his walk totals are: 14 (37 games), 36, 32, 44, and 11 (61 games). Hardly Nick Johnson. Certainly not the type of discipline numbers you'd like to see from your leadoff hitter, particularly if you are paying him $3 million a year.

So he doesn't walk and he doesn't play particularly great defense. He must hit well, right? If only he did.

        OPS    GPA
1999   .670   .235
2000   .778   .271
2001   .775   .265
2002   .671   .234
2003   .691   .235

Tigers president Dave Dombrowski had the following to say:

"There's no question we're in a mode that we can be very active and aggressive in our conversations with agents and other teams. It's great. It's an exciting time for our organization. We're looking to upgrade at second base, shortstop, outfield, starting pitching."

In my estimation, it looks like they still need an upgrade at second base, shortstop, outfield, and starting pitching.

Eric | 01:09 AM EST | TrackBack: 10

December 10, 2003

On The Move ... But Who Cares

With the deadline to offer players arbitration having passed on Sunday, a lot of pieces are starting to fall into place ... for some teams anyway. Yesterday's frenzy included no less than six free agent pitchers changing teams. How do the deals look?

Team: Atlanta Braves
Player: John Thomson
Terms: Two years, $7 million

The Mets acquired Thomson at the trade deadline in 2002 for perennial underachiever Jay Payton, pothead Mark Corey, and Robert Stratton, who has hit 165 minor league homeruns in 2,371 at-bats with -- are you sitting down? -- 982 strikeouts! He's shown some patience, walking 255 times, but he's a straight-up hacker in the mold of Dave Kingman.

He pitched okay down the stretch for the Mets, and signed a one-year deal with the Rangers in 2003. Here's how he's done the past two seasons relative to the league he pitched in:

                       ERA    WHIP  K/9   K/BB   HR/9
John Thomson '03       4.85   1.30  5.64  2.78   1.12
American League '03    4.52   1.39  6.11  1.93   1.11

John Thomson '02       4.71   1.30  5.30  2.43   1.39
National League '02    4.10   1.37  6.76  1.94   1.01

Thomson has shown pretty good control, keeping his walk rate better than the league. However, by almost any other measure, he has been worse than his respective league over the past two seasons. He has played in two of the best hitters parks in baseball in Coors Field (2002) and Arlington Stadium (2003), so let's say that pushes his numbers closer to the league average. You can never underestimate Leo Mazzone's impact on mediocre pitchers, but Thomson isn't going to be a worldbeater for the Braves.

$3.5 million per year is hardly breaking the bank, though it may be a bit much for a league average pitcher in today's buyer's market. He'll likely be the fifth starter for the Braves, who don't have a number one and, I would argue, don't even have a number two. Of course, they didn't have an ace last year and still ran away with the NL East.

Eric | 06:18 AM EST | TrackBack: 1

December 04, 2003

Castillo Resigns With Marlins (Hooray!)

I would like to personally thank the Florida Marlins for signing Luis Castillo so the Mets didn't have to. I'm sorry, but I guess I'm the only one who wasn't jumping out of my shorts to give away $16 million over three years for a .731 OPS (256 GPA), which is exactly what Castillo has posted since 2001. Granted, he's a gold-glover at second base, the second-most important defensive position after shortstop. You want stolen bases? Look elsewhere. Castillo has been caught almost a third of the time over the past three seasons (102 SB in 152 chances).

The Mets will apparently now turn their attention to Kazuo Matsui, who will probably get a deal similar to that of Hideki Matsui ($21 million over three years). I would sooner do that than spend $16 million on Luis. That is, of course, provided it doesn't require moving Jose Reyes to second base. Mets management is apparently split on this idea. Ownership is in favor of moving Reyes, while GM Jim Duquette and other executives are opposed to the idea (as am I).

Of course, the Mets will be bidding against no less than five other teams (Yankees, Orioles, Mariners, Dodgers, Angels), with the Dodgers, Angels, and Orioles certain to have an opening for him at shortstop. I've read that he won't want to share the Yankee spotlight with Hideki Matsui, preferring to be the prominent Japanese player on any team (cross Seattle of the list?).

There is also talk about the Mets signing Brooklyn's own Rich Aurilia to play second base, or third base with Ty Wigginton moving to second. Aside from his ridiculously-out-of-character year in 2001 (.324 BA, 37 HR, 97 RBI), he's been a pretty mediocre hitter, sporting a .278 career BA, .331 career OBP, and .444 career slugging.

An intriguing possibility that hasn't really been mentioned yet would be trading for Jose Vidro, who is a very good, fairly patient switch hitter with some pop. He's scheduled to make $7 million this year. Maybe the Mets could put together a nice little package of prospects and ship them to Montreal for Vidro and Livan Hernandez ($6 million). That would allow the Expos to free up $13 million in 2004, which might leave them enough wiggle room to afford Javier Vazquez' arbitration award and bring back Vlad Guerrero. I might even be willing to take on arbo-eligible Orlando Cabrera (who won a gold glove in 2001) to play third base. Hernandez and Cabrera would be one-year trials who could be dumped after '04 if they suck it up Robbie Alomar-style.

Eric | 09:32 AM EST | TrackBack: 0

November 21, 2003

Let The Lunacy Begin

The 2003 MLB free agent season is officially underway (and has been for a few weeks now), and with it comes the inevitable barrage of bad signings. While these signings are usually perpetrated by my Mets, I'm happy to say that the first couple belong to other unfortunate teams. That's not to say the Mets won't make their own share, as their laundry list of rumored has-beens and never-will-bes includes the likes of Pokey Reese, Todd Walker, Luis Castillo, etc.

The first bad signing, and by "bad" I really mean "inexcusable" or "criminal", was the Astros inking Brad Ausmus to a two-year deal worth $4 million.

I'm having a difficult time deciding which is more insipid: the fact that Ausmus made $5.5 million this year or, after his sub-replacement-level performance these past few seasons, that someone, namely the team that suffered through those seasons, would decide that $2 million per year is a good investment in him.

I have heard that he is a good "character" guy which, while I can't quantify, I would imagine is much like saying a girl has a great personality in lieu of just calling her "ugly".

In an era where batting statistics are through the roof, we still don't expect much offensive output from the catching position. Never has this been more true than in Houston. Among major league catchers with 250 or more at-bats last season (of which there were 30), Ausmus ranked dead last in SLG and OPS (OBP % plus SLG %) and next-to-last in AVG (Brandon Inge).

Having lousy production at catcher is not a crime. However, having arguably the worst offensive catcher in the league while paying him like the seventh-best catcher in the league is ludicrous.

He did manage to draw 46 walks in 450 at-bats, which isn't half-bad. His .229 AVG and *gag* .291 SLG would give me nightmares if I were a fan in Houston. Well, the nightmares are going to last for another two years it would seem.

* * * * * * * * * *

The other bad move was Raul Ibanez signing a three-year deal with the Mariners worth $13 million. Not bad for Raul, mind you. Aaron of Aaron's Baseball Blog has already covered this topic, so I will just make a few points.

Ibanez was a 36th round pick by the M's in 1992 and played small parts of five seasons before signing with the Royals as a free agent in 2001. After playing part-time in 2001, he got 497 at-bats in 2002 and put together a fine season: 24 homeruns, 103 RBI, .883 OPS, .294 AVG.

A big concern is that he's going from an extreme hitter's park (Kauffman Stadium) to an extreme pitcher's park (Safeco Field), which typically doesn't favor batters who rely on slugging percentage to pad their OPS (as opposed to on-base percentage, which translates much better from park-to-park).

He's gotten on base consistently around 35% of the time over the past three seasons, and his slugging has fluctuated from .495 (2001) to .537 (2002) to .454 (2003). He's hit surprisingly well at Safeco over the past three seasons, posting a 1.316 OPS in 42 at-bats. It's a small sample size, so it's difficult to draw any meaningful information from it.

One can reasonably expect his power numbers to drop off in his new surroundings, though his on-base percentage shouldn't drift too far one way or the other. Ibanez is a fairly productive player, but is roughly league-average (or slightly better) for an outfielder/first-baseman type. He ranked 22nd in the AL among outfielders in Win Shares with 15, just ahead of Frank Catalanotto and just behind Eric Byrnes, two nice players who aren't going to see $4 million per-year anytime soon.

Plus, as Aaron points out, since the Mariner's signed Ibanez before the Royals had a chance to offer him arbitration, they automatically forfeit their first-round pick in next year's draft. Not a great way to kick off the Bill Bavasi regime.

Eric | 02:18 PM EST | TrackBack: 6