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February 15, 2004

A-Rod Comes Home

I suppose I would be remiss if I didn't talk a bit about the now-inevitable acquisition of Alex Rodriguez by the New York Yankees. As other like-minded bloggers have already noted, the news of this deal makes me sick to my stomach, for so many different reasons. Not the least of which is the fact that, after cash and salaries change hands, the Yankees will only be on the hook for $16 million per year for A-Rod's age 29-35 seasons. In New York. Under the spotlight. Where everyone will fall in love with him. Playing for the Yankees.

Of course, my infatuation with Alex Rodriguez is no secret, which makes this news even harder to swallow. Unless by some miracle this deal falls through, I am going to be under the assumption that A-Rod will be the starting third-baseman for the Yankees in 2004.

You're probably asking yourself, "Why third base?" Derek Jeter is, by almost any objective measure other than 'making jumping throws to first base' and 'apple of Tim McCarver's eye', a lousy defensive shortstop, and may in fact be the worse defensive shortstop in baseball. Plus, Alex Rodriguez is, by at least some objective measures, a good defensive shortstop, and by almost every objective measure, aside from the two I just mentioned, a significantly better defensive shortstop than Derek Jeter.

Don't believe me? Using MGL's UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating), since 2000, Derek Jeter has cost his team an average of 28 runs per 162 games, which is worse than every other infielder in baseball. A-Rod, meanwhile, has saved his team a marginal 5 runs per 162 games which, while not excellent, is 33 runs better than Jetes. Not a fan of newfangled metrics like UZR? How about these:

2000-2003 DEFENSIVE STATISTICS (MLB RANK IN PARENTHESES)

               A-ROD     JETES
FIELDING %     .984 (4)  .970 (19)
PUTOUTS        1008 (1)   826 (8)
DOUBLE PLAYS    458 (1)   265 (18)
RANGE          4.50 (5)  3.77 (26)

Rodriguez has also won two Gold Gloves to Jeter's zero. Granted, such a move would hurt Derek's feelings something awful, but is that really worth 30+ runs per year? The one thing that Jeter actually has going for him in the field is his strong arm, which he could actually put to good use at third base, a position that would help to mask his slow feet and poor range. With a little practice, he might hope to develop into a league-average third baseman, as opposed to the crippling detriment he provides at shortstop.

In 2003, Alex Rodriguez had 146 runs created. Alfonso Soriano, the key piece coming from the Yankees in this deal, had 122 runs created. Aaron Boone, whose injury opened the door for this deal to happen, had 89 runs created in 2003. Together, the former 2004 Yankees 2B/3B combo created 211 runs in 2003. With the addition of A-Rod, the new Yankees second baseman would need to create 65 runs to match that production. 65 runs isn't impossible to find. 15 second basemen created that many runs in 2003. Newly acquired Mike Lamb could probably put that up in 2004, though Enrique Wilson probably would not.

If you're a Red Sox fan or a Mets fan, you really can't cry about this deal. Both clubs could have had A-Rod if they really wanted a deal to work. The Sox didn't want to give up money on top of Manny Ramirez. The Mets could have probably secured the same deal the Yankees will get if they were willing to part with Jose Reyes and Aaron Heilman. Heilman has shown nothing to this point that would indicate he is the prospect the Mets had hoped he would be. And I am as big a fan of Reyes as anyone, but the Mets can only dream that his upside is anything like what Soriano already is.

The Yankees have done well for themselves here, and I am left holding my proverbial junk. Here's to another long summer at Shea.

Eric | 12:07 PM EST | Comments: 3 | TrackBack: 1

January 29, 2004

Zeile Blasts Yanks

Thanks to Vinny at Yankees, Mets and the Rest for clueing me in to this article, where the newest Met Todd Zeile rips into the Yankees' organizational philosophies:

I have no desire to play again for that organization ... I think some of the things that happen over there are different than any other organization in baseball. I have a pretty good track record to judge that ... Every day is potentially the end-all," he said. "It's whatever they need that day. It sometimes can be unsettling for people in role positions there. ... I don't really have a desire to get back into that mix.

Zeile's ego was no doubt bruised a bit, but anyone signing with the Yankees has to know going in that winning is the only thing that matters. The Yankee machine will steamroll over everything in its path, unafraid to flatten whatever/whomever gets in its way.

Zeile goes on to explain why he decided against hanging up his spikes:

Only because I got some renewed desire and some adrenaline and passion for the game with Montreal did I really consider coming back for another year. The move to Montreal really solidified for me the desire to continue to play. It gave me the opportunity to check out if I had anything left in the tank.

The million clams probably made the decision a bit easier for him. Counselor Zeile then gives his take on the whole Aaron Boone fiasco:

If your injury is self-inflicted, then I think the team should then have the opportunity to undo that contract and look at it on the merits of what the language says. I think it's going to be tricky in particular with Aaron. I think most of the things that are put in the contract as far as prohibitive language (are) reasonable.

He might be getting a call from the players' union asking him to be a little more supportive of his fellow teamsters.

Eric | 12:00 AM EST | Comments: 4 | TrackBack: 1

December 05, 2003

The Empire Strikes Back

Never one to be outdone, Boss George yesterday spearheaded a trade with Les Expos, acquiring Montreal's staff ace and great human being Javier Vazquez for on-base machine and my favorite (former) Yankee Nick Johnson, as well as a sack of bats and a sack of balls (see: choad).

Randol Doyle Choate was initially a player-to-be-named later in this deal, with "later" turning out to be around an hour's time. He's 28 years old, and has played parts of the last four seasons with the Yankees. In 91 big league innings, Choate has struck out 64 batters while walking 51. The K/9 isn't too bad (6.40), but the K/BB is pretty scary (1.25). He's done a good job keeping the ball in the yard, surrendering only four homers in those 91 innings. His career numbers with Columbus of the International League (AAA) are quite good, striking out 129 and walking 56 in 147 innings, while giving up only 6 longballs. He's hardly a prospect at this point, but he could certainly contribute 70 league-average-or-better innings for a lot of major league clubs ... just not the Yankees.

What was once a glut of pinstriped Riveras (Mariano, Ruben, Juan) has been whittled down to a single one. Thursday morning I heard somewhere that Juan Rivera was almost a dealbreaker for the Yankees. After pissing myself, I felt much better. On the bright side, Rivera tore apart left-handed pitching this season to the tune of a 1.018 OPS (.326 GPA). On the dim side, that was only in 50 at-bats. On the bleak side, almost everything else. He actually posted an .879 OPS (.293 GPA) in 772 AAA at-bats since 2001, with 29 homers and 128 RBIs. It all fell apart, as it does for so many, when he joined the big club. If the Expos can re-sign Vladimir Guerrero, Rivera could play left-field with Brad Wilkerson shifting over to center, leaving Endy Chavez and his .648 OPS (.221 GPA) twiddling his thumbs.

Nick Johnson is a very good batter. He's adequate in the field, but at the plate he really seems to get it. It? Yep, he gets it. The guy walked 70 times in 324 AB, striking out only 57 times. He even managed 14 homers while posting a team-high .422 OBP. I like this kid, and I think he has a huge upside.

That being said, the Yankees had to make this deal. They pick up the Expos best pitcher, and certainly one of the better young non-Cub starters in the National League. Is he better than Curt Schilling? No, definitely not. Is he better than Bartolo Colon? Maybe. Thinner? Definitely. Cheaper? No chance. Will the Yankees sign Colon anyway now that they have Vazquez? They might. Can I write in sentence fragments for an entire blog? We'll just have to see. Vazquez is a young, accomplished, level-headed strikeout pitcher that the Yankees aging rotation desperately needed. He doesn't walk a lot of guys, but will give up his share of homeruns. That being said, he'll likely be the Yankees #2 guy behind The Moose, and a damned fine one at that.

It's hard to fault either team for making this deal. The Yankees needed an upgrade to the rotation, and needed a frontline guy to keep up with the Red Sox. The Expos needed to shed payroll to make an offer to Vlady, and got a very good hitter with a huge ceiling along with some spare parts.

Advantage: Push

THIS JUST IN: In an article in today's Montreal Gazette, Pat Hickey doesn't think the Yankees made out so well:

The Yankees bolstered their starting rotation yesterday when they acquired Javier Vazquez from the Expos for first-baseman Nick Johnson, outfielder Juan Rivera and left-handed relief pitcher Randy Choate.

Or did they?

The deal is the Yankees' response to the Red Sox acquiring Curt Schilling, but the only edge Vazquez, 27, has over Schilling, 37, is the fact he's a lot younger. He's no Schilling and he'll have to be a lot more consistent than he was here if he's going to fill any of the holes left in the Yankees' rotation. Roger Clemens is definitely gone and there is no assurance that David Wells or Andy Pettitte will be back. They are all better than Vazquez.

Eric | 10:07 AM EST | TrackBack: 0

December 04, 2003

Yankee Dogs Now $18

The Yankees excess is hard at work again, this time (over)spending on warm bodies to set up Mariano Rivera. Tom Gordon signed a two-year deal yesterday worth $7.2 million, and Ontario's own Paul Quantrill signed a similar two-year pact worth $6.8 million. Add to that the soon-to-be deals for Felix "Don't Call me Gil" Heredia (two years, $3.6 million) and Gabe White (two years, $6 million), plus the $10 million they owe Steve Karsay through 2005 and the $2.4 million Chris Hammond will make in 2004, and the Anskys will have $36 million tied up in middle relief over the next couple of seasons. That's more than half of what the Brewers will spend on their entire roster over the same span.

                      2001               2002               2003

                 K/9  K/BB  HR/9    K/9  K/BB  HR/9    K/9  K/BB  HR/9
Tom Gordon      13.30 4.19  0.79   10.13 3.00  0.63   11.07 2.94  0.49
Paul Quantrill   6.29 4.83  0.65    6.22 2.12  0.12    5.12 2.93  0.23
Gabe White       6.25 1.81  2.39    6.79 4.10  0.50    5.59 3.63  1.35
Felix Heredia    7.20 1.75  1.54    5.33 1.19  0.86    4.66 1.36  1.03

The first thing that immediately jumps out at me is Flash Gordon's strikeout rates. He was seventh in the majors this season in K/9 with 11.07 (among pitchers with at least 40 ip). That's better than Billy Wagner (10.99), John Smoltz (10.21), and Octavio Dotel (10.03). He had Tommy John surgery four years ago, and has missed a good deal of playing time over the past five seasons, including much of 1999 and all of 2000. If he stays healthy, he'll give the Yankee bullpen the power arm (aside from M-Riv) they've sorely missed during the past few seasons of incomprehensible failure.

Paul Quantrill, while no doubt aided by the friendly confines of Dodger Stadium (park factors of 93 and 91 the past two seasons), should provide some much-needed relief, and will offer a change of pace from Gordon's hard stuff. He has very good control and, while he doesn't strike out a ton of hitters, gives up a ridiculously low number of homeruns. Last season he gave up one longball for approximately every 36 innings he pitched. While astounding, it was put to shame by his 2002 rate of one every 72 innings. That would be like a starting pitcher giving up one homerun for every 12 six-inning starts he makes. He is an extreme groundball pitcher, giving up almost twice as many groundballs as flyballs over the last three years. While this helps keep the ball in the yard, it may not be the best complement to the Yankees infield defense.

Gabe White and Felix Heredia are probably league-average relievers. They both pitched pretty well for the Yankees last season, which apparently was enough for Boss George to pay them like they were replacement-level middle-infielders.

Quite frankly, the Yankee bullpen was s*** last season. With Heredia and White effectively replacing the 2003 versions of themselves, Paul Quantrill and Tom Gordon (when he plays), will be a huge upgrade over the jigsaw puzzle suckfest that has dominated the middle innings at the Stadium of late.

Eric | 09:33 AM EST | TrackBack: 1

October 28, 2003

The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly

The Good: The Mets will announce today that they have removed the interim title from Jim Duquette, naming him as their tenth General Manager. It was only a matter of time before this was made official, as The Duke proved his worth by ably ridding the Mets of albatrosses like Jeromy Burnitz, Roberto Alomar, and Armando Benitez. Not only did he manage to bring the Mets under the $117 million luxury tax threshold, but he acquired some live arms and decent prospects in the process.

The Bad: The New York Post reports today that the Mets would "definitely" be interested in pursuing Mike "All-Glove" Cameron. Post columnist Michael Morrissey goes so far as to say that, in light of the Mariners' current front office disarray, the Mets would have the unique opportunity to "pounce on Cameron, a 30-year-old fan favorite and Gold Glove winner who has made Mariners fans forget the Ken Griffey Jr. era." The Mets "pouncing" on Cameron would be much the way a soldier would "pounce" on a live grenade to save his platoon. The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one. Cameron's agent/spin doctor says that his client's non-prowess with the stick is not a result of the spaciousness of Safeco Field, but rather the stadium's "glare", the cause of which is not specified. "They had trouble with it for years and brought NASA in there to find a solution." I see.

The Ugly: Okay, here's where it gets dicey. As Michael of Michael's Mets Ramblings also points out, the Mets, according to an article in today's Star Ledger, will make Kaz Matsui one of their primary off-season targets. That's fine. His stats project reasonably well and, in the right deal, wouldn't be a bad acquisition, considering that the Mets wouldn't have to forfeit any of their draft picks (they pick 3rd overall in each round) to sign him. He's a shortstop, but that's okay because the Mets will try to move him to 2B. Right? RIGHT?!?! According to the article, Matsui is not very open to changing positions, so the Mets think tank is apparently considering moving The Golden Child to 2B, citing that he is "athletic enough to make the switch". I agree with Michael that the only player you even think about relocating Jose Reyes for is All-Star/Raker/Baseball God Alex Rodriguez. I probably wouldn't even move him for Nomah.

The Bad and Ugly is speculative at this point, relying on "sources" and such, but they don't give me warm fuzzies about the impending off-season shuffle. In addition to the Good, the other ray of light is that Luis Castillo's miserable-save-for-one-at-bat World Series performance has apparently soured many Mets execs on the light-hitting second-baseman. For me, his inability to get the ball out of the infield and inept base-stealing did the trick.

Eric | 11:48 AM EST | TrackBack: 0